Mediaboss Marketing

A prominent Iranian analyst, often referred to as an expert on US affairs, says political threats against Tehran are changing and taking a military form.

Mehdi Motaharnia, told Didban Iran website on June 18 that threats coming particularly from the US Central Command (CENTCOM) in the region are no longer political in nature and can be characterized as military.

Speaking in the cryptic language of Iranian analysts, Motaharnia added that "these threats are coming through Israel's security tunnel." He added that Tel Aviv's moves are becoming increasingly elaborate and that they can change the situation in the region and push it toward a collision.

Motaharnia said indications show that a military confrontation is not only "possible" but "probable".

He argued that US President Joe Biden's upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia is meant to tackle the Arab-Israeli problem and bring about meaningful strategic changes, including bringing Saudi Arabia closer to Israel. All this, he said will have serious repercussions for Iran.

In fact, Israel this week called for a regional alliance against Iran under the aegis of the United States.

Iranian analyst, Mehdi Motaharnia

It could also lead to Iran's further isolation and create an anti-Iranian alliance. Motaharnia said that a Gulf Cooperation Council meeting will be also held during Biden's visit to the region, and this is likely to lead to a regional order against Tehran.

Meanwhile, the former editor of hardline daily Kayhan, Mehdi Nasiri also said on the same day that the Islamic Republic is moving toward a war.

Nasiri wrote in an article: "Evidence including the suspension of nuclear negotiations in Vienna and the escalation of tensions between Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) might indicate that the Islamic Republic is interested in war and such a war is likely to start."

Nasiri added: "If such a war starts, it could lead to major humanitarian and economic catastrophe for Iranians who still have not recovered from the scars of the 8-year war with Iraq in the 1980s."

Former editor of conservative Kayhan daily, Mehdi Nasiri

Nasiri warned Islamic Republic officials that this war is in contradiction with Iran's national interests and that they have no right to impose such a conflict on the people even if they believe it would be an anti-imperialist move. "They have no right to start a war based on ideological and religious justifications without first seeking the consent of the Iranian people."

In a blunt statement by someone living in Iran he said: "While clerics and others in the government are living an aristocratic life, they have no right to impose war and aggression on the people and bring about poverty and misery with the pretext of resistance."

Nasiri added that if leaders believe most Iranians support an aggressive and belligerent foreign policy, they should prove this by holding a referendum.

The warnings about the Islamic Republic's interest in a probable war come while according to a report published by reformist daily Sharq, there is no consensus among Iranian and US officials whether "an agreement is within reach," or all the chances for a deal have been lost.

The report said that the realities on the ground point to the fact that currently there is no chance for a deal, adding that during the past 10 days since the IAEA Board of Governors condemned Iran's lack of cooperation with the agency and Irans reaction to the IAEA resolution have been discouraging. The report stressed that chances for an agreement have been practically reduced to nil.

Sharq's report said, "The nuclear agreement (JCPOA) is dead, but the Raisi administration lacks the courage to bury it."

See the original post:
Pundits In Tehran Say Iran May Be Headed For War -

Tehran (AFP) Outside his butchery in the south of Iran's capital, Ali cuts up a sheep carcass for customers who, like him, have seen inflation and subsidy reform devour their purchasing power.

"My sales have fallen significantly -- almost by half," Ali, 50, told AFP.

"What can I say? I am a butcher and you may not believe me, but sometimes I don't eat meat for a week," he added. "Everything has gone up in price."

Inflation is making an unwelcome comeback globally -- stoked by high energy and food prices, driven largely by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a major wheat producer, and by related sanctions on Moscow.

But Iran has been wrestling with rampant price growth for years, exceeding 30 percent annually every year since 2018, according to the International Monetary Fund.

That was the year US president Donald Trump yanked Washington out of a nuclear deal between Iran and world powers and began reimposing biting sanctions, sending the currency into a tailspin even before he unilaterally banned Iran's oil exports.

Negotiations over the last year or so have sought to bring the US -- under Trump's successor Joe Biden -- back inside the deal and convince Tehran to re-adhere to nuclear commitments it has progressively walked away from.

But those ever-delicate efforts have been deadlocked since March, and an escalating spat between Iran and the UN's nuclear watchdog could reduce chances of reviving the agreement.

After dividing the cuts of meat, Ali hands Asghar, a retired government employee, a plastic bag containing enough for him and his wife.

"The price of everything has gone up, including meat," lamented Asghar, 63.

"We used to buy more. Now everyone is buying less -- everyone is under pressure."

Economic analyst Saeed Laylaz believes price growth in Iran has exceeded 40 percent annually since 2018 -- higher than that calculated by the IMF.

It has lately been fuelled further, he says, by "the sharp increase in global inflation" driven by fallout from the war in Ukraine and by Iran's cash-strapped government in mid-May enacting the "radical reform" of slashing subsidies.

The expert, who has in the past advised Iranian presidents, said the main policy shift by the government of President Ebrahim Raisi was to abolish a subsidised exchange rate for imports of household essentials -- wheat, cooking oil and medicine.

Introduced in mid-2018, this "preferential" rate was fixed at 42,000 rials to the dollar, cushioning citizens from the savage black market depreciation of the local currency that stemmed from the US withdrawing from the nuclear deal.

But with the exchange rate on the black market exceeding 300,000 rials to the greenback and global food prices soaring, the arrangement became unaffordable.

"It is estimated that if Iran wanted to continue reckless spending of hard currencies this year like the previous years, the country would have needed $22 billion dollars at the preferential rate," he said.

"Even in the event of reviving the nuclear agreement... the government had no choice but to cancel the preferential rate," he added.

Red meat prices have risen 50 percent, chicken and milk prices have doubled, spaghetti has tripled and cooking oil prices have quadrupled since early May, according to figures published by Iranian media.

Hundreds of Iranians have taken to the streets of several cities to protest against the spiralling prices, on top of months-long demonstrations by professionals and pensioners demanding wages and pensions be adjusted for inflation.

On Tuesday, Labour Minister Hojjatollah Abdolmaleki stepped down in the hope of "strengthening cooperation within the government and improving the provision of services to the people," according to government spokesman Ali Bahadori-Jahromi.

But reformist newspaper Etemad linked his resignation to "heavy criticism" from the protesting pensioners.

In Tehran's marketplaces, attention is focused on the consequences and effects of inflation, rather than its causes.

President Raisi, an ultra-conservative who took office last August, pledged from the outset that the painful subsidy reform would not affect bread, fuel and medicine prices.

Demand for bread is therefore increasing.

"The queues at the bakeries have become longer because the price of rice has risen, and people are resorting to bread," Shadi, a housewife wearing the Islamic chador told AFP near a traditional bakery in southern Tehran.

Inside, the baker Mujtaba agrees.

"People... are no longer able to buy rice, cooking oil, spaghetti and tomato paste," said the 29-year-old, his face drenched in sweat as he took a break from preparing dough.

The subsidy reform has so far done little to steady the black market exchange rate, which slipped to an all-time low of more than 330,000 to the dollar on June 12, and hopes for a restoration of the nuclear deal have receded.

2022 AFP

See the article here:
Inflation, subsidy reform hit stomachs in isolated Iran - FRANCE 24 English

The Arab world did not always view the Shi'ite regime in Iran through sectarian lens, despite the fact that the majority of Muslims in the world are Sunni.

Former Iranian Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini, the father of the Iranian Revolution, used to be seen as the leader of the protest against the Shah's oppression, Western hegemony and Israel's influence.

3 View gallery

Pictures of Ayatollah Khomeini and Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei

(Photo: AP)

Later, the Iran Iraq war undermined Iran's reputation in the Arab world, but during Tehran's campaign in assisting Lebanon in its war against Israel in 2006, it has managed to repair the damaged image.

But, since then Iran has widened its rift with the Sunni world by backing Shi'ite political parties in Iraq and Lebanon, instead of viewing the Middle East as the home of the united Arab nation.

Iran's condescension has not remained unanswered, and the loss of political power by some Shi'ite parties in recent elections can be seen as a direct result of the anger leveled at Tehran, which has been brewing in Arab countries for quite some time.

In fact, you'd be hard-pressed to find a Sunni Muslim in Lebanon who is not angered by Hezbollah - which up until a few weeks ago had a majority in the Lebanese parliament - and the recent election results are proof of that.

Hezbollah is also immersed in sectarianism in its political alliances. The party demonstrates a lax position towards Lebanon's President Michel Aoun, who was suspected of having ties with Israel among other foreign interests affairs, when he was a general in the military.

The Iran-backed organization has no such tolerance of Lebanon's Sunni leaders, as was evident by the death sentence given to former Sunni Imam Ahmad Al-Assir, who dared to criticize Iran. He was accused of causing civilian deaths in sectarian fighting and attacking the military in Sidon - the third-largest city in Lebanon - in 2013.

But such policies have consequences. Iran and Hezbollah have paid dearly for viewing Lebanon as an extension of Iraq and Syria, and not a sovereign state that it thrives to be.

Iran was also harshly defeated in other geopolitical arenas when it sought to exploit those countries for its own interests.

For instance, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was tasked by Tehran with the responsibility of executing Iran's orders in Iraq and Yemen. He appointed Sheikh Mohammed Kawtharani as Lebanon's representative in Iraq, who then was in position to decide the fate of local politicians.

As a result, like in any other authoritarian government, it became utterly corrupt and Kawtharani's brother, Adnan, took advantage of the situation to advance his business dealings.

Alongside this, Iran has also set up drug and arms smuggling networks, which rely on Lebanese cannabis and Syrian stimulant drugs such, and it is hard not to see this as further humiliation of Sunnis

Sunni men, women and children are still displaced in their own lands, with the best among their youth incarcerated, while Hezbollah occupies their cities.

Iran seeks to sow chaos and is focused only on its own interests instead of considering the entire Arab nation as one - irrespective of factional affiliation. Until it adopts a different policy, it stands to lose even the support of Shi'ite Muslims.

Yasser Abu Hilala is a Jordanian journalist and his article was published by the Van Leer Institute's Ofek program

Go here to see the original:
Iran is the divisive force in the Middle East - Ynetnews

Iranian newspapers Sunday marked the end of the first year since President Ebrahim Raisi's election on June 18, 2021 with harsh criticism of his economic team.

Most columnists and commentators welcomed the recent resignation of Raisi's Labor Minister Hojjat Abdolmaleki but said that many more ministers will have to leave the cabinet.

Nonetheless, some commentators including Reformist lawmaker Naser Ghavami said replacing current ministers with new ones cannot solve Iran's economic problems. He added that even the best economists cannot tackle the ongoing economic crisis because the underlying reason for problems is the political system itself.

Ghavami charged that the government has made Iran dependant on Russia and China, adding that the two countries simply follow their own interests.

Former lawmaker Mohammad Reza Khabbaz asked: "Do not these minister feel any shame even before their own conscience for accepting to be in charge of key ministries? On what basis has Raisi appointed them as ministers? And what do those who suggested these individuals think about the situation now?"

Khabbaz said that many more ministers from Raisi's cabinet need to go. Meanwhile, he called those ministers who promised to create one million jobs or build one million houses every year, "liars." He further asked: "Isn't what they have been doing a waste of the country's resources and the nation's dignity?"

Protests in Tehran Bazaar against a steep rise in prices. June 11, 2022

Columnist Mohammad Shadi wrote in a commentary in Jahan Sanat newspaper that his publication has been in the market for nearly two decades and it was evident for its journalists that Raisi's ministers were not fit for their jobs. Shadi opined that at least two more economic ministers should leave the government.

Shadi wrote that Iran needs to prove that its economic policies are consistent with international norms if it wishes to attract foreign investment.

The new reformist daily Arman Emrooz, not to be mistaken with the very similar looking Arman Melli, wrote that "during the past ten months since Raisi took office, he has issued a major directive every 9 days. However, 3 out of every 4 orders have been ignored by those who had to carry them out."

The daily added: "Out of 37 official orders issued by Raisi, 27 of them have not been carried out at all, 6 have been carried out and another 4 have been abandoned halfway through their implementation."

Meanwhile, Tahmoures Hoseini wrote in an article in Toseh Irani newspaper: "Because of the government's performance, the divide between the people and officials has increasingly widened in recent years. The current government blames its predecessors and the members of the previous government blame the way elections are held in Iran.

The daily wrote that the rise in the number of protests is another indication of the government's failure while it keeps blaming the United States. The daily quoted Former lawmaker Gholamreza Jafarzadeh Imanabadi: "I should say clearly that I doubt the honesty of Raisi's economic team. Raisi needs to reshuffle his government and try to meet the promises he made to the people for their votes."

Economist Albert Boghossian wrote in Setareh Sobh that most of the complaints about the government have something to do with Raisi's broken promises. Boghossian also added that neither Raisi nor his economic team can make any difference while the system does not allow for reforms.

Despite all this, the administration-owned daily, Iran, says all is well, and quotes Raisi as saying, "There is no problem in Iran that cannot be solved."

Read the original post:
A Year After Election, Papers Say Iran's Raisi Let Down The Nation -

i24 News Iran continues to significantly develop its cyber capabilities for a variety of purposes. Only recently it was reported that Tehran had sought to attack Boston Childrens Hospital an attempt that the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation called one of the most despicable he had ever seen. This incident is another indication of Irans boldness in operating cyber tools.

But the majority of Iranian cyberactivity is focused on social engineering for obtaining intelligence information. Tehran has been expanding its use as a tool, mainly through numerous inquiries to various experts on Iran. Iranian intelligence is attempting to obtain their information and assessments, and even trying to lure some to attend international conferences to recruit or kidnap them.

One of the authors of this article was recently contacted via email by someone claiming to be a leading journalist. When the email was met without a response, the same journalist called the author personally multiple times asking to schedule a test interview, with the phone number appearing registered from the country in which that media outlet was located.

Further investigation revealed this to likely be a phishing attempt by Charming Kitten, which is an advanced persistent threat actor linked to the Iranian government. There are lessons to be learned from this episode, namely the sloppiness in tradecraftthrough persistence and unaffiliated, personal email addresses of Iranian cyberwarriors. The fact that the Iranian operatives followed up after an email with phone calls demonstrates the aggressiveness with which the Islamic Republic is deploying these tools.

To uncover the Iranian pattern of action, we will focus in this article on the ways Iran uses social engineering tools and their unique characteristics to help possible targets identify that they are under Iranian attack. In general, most of the actions being carried out by Tehran are very amateurish and easy to identify, provided those who are subjects of interest to the Iranian government are aware of its tactics.

The use of social engineering tools has greatly expanded in recent years, mainly due to the difficulty of obtaining information from social media platforms in light of heightened awareness and actions taken by these networks aimed at protecting the privacy of their users.

Social engineering has thus become a kind of offensive WEBINT (Web Intelligence) tool that allows for receiving a lot of information about the relevant user.

The central principle when it comes to social engineering is trust. That is, the target will feel safe enough to provide details to the applicant (in this case Iranian intelligence). Iran also understands this principle very well, and therefore it seems that its operatives are working around the clock on these strategies.

If in the past Iran used assets that it established for dedicated operations which were for the most part very easy to identify, today the Iranian trend is to steal the identities of real people and to weaponize them.

That is, they are using the real names of people to approach their targets using emails that are very close to the real name of the stolen identity. This is usually a respectable approach made by a high-ranking expert (to persuade the target to work with him) during which there is an offer for a potential target to collaborate, whether it is via an interview, writing a joint article, or appearing at some conference. This modus operandi can be seen in a recent cyberoperation targeting Israels former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, where an Iranian hacker posed as an Israeli military official asking her to use her email password to open a document, which would compromise her account.

Most often the goal is to get valuable information from the target and assessments about how he sees the situation in Iran. The same researcher is often showered with praise and seduced by an original idea that often goes against Iran, such as how to destroy Iran from within.

The approach usually is signed under the name of the same person without his phone number (for fear that the target will call the same person and understand that he was tricked). But as one of the authors recently experienced, Iran-linked operatives are now even leaving phone numbers.

Those who are at the receiving end of such Iranian entreaties should take the following steps: doubt any email they receive regarding possible collaboration, especially when emails are sent from a users private address (e.g., via Gmail) and not the institutional domain; doubly verify that the sender is real through other social media platforms or by calling his/her employer; never provide personal details or open links you receive from this source; and be cautious in the information you make accessible about yourself on social media platforms.

Contrary to popular belief, most of Irans successful cyberattacks were not because of its technological capabilities, but because of the very extensive use it makes of social engineering tools. Today there are good technical solutions that can protect companies and people from hacking in the cyber dimension. However, it is very difficult to influence the human factor with these approaches, especially when the email seems credible, the offer to cooperate is so flattering, and it corresponds with the subjects desire to demonstrate the knowledge he has and share it with others.

This makes the human factor the weakest link in the chain. This is not a new pattern of action, but there has been an acceleration in its use. The higher the awareness of the relevant parties, the more difficult it will be for Iran in its intelligence missions.

In a broad sense, there is a need to increase information sharing between the social networks and state intelligence agencies. This cooperation in the Iranian context can help block those profiles. The phenomenon cannot be prevented, but it can certainly be reduced considerably. Awareness of Iranian behavior in the cyber realm is the best way to counter their practices.

Excerpt from:
Social Engineering in the Name of Iran's Islamic Revolution - Algemeiner