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Iran is taking its oil future into its own hands, despite ongoing sanctions from the U.S. With higher oil sales and revenues in 2021, Iran is planning to invest in its oil industry by opening a new refinery, constructing a new pipeline, and fostering international relationships to enhance its export opportunities. While U.S. sanctions continue to restrict Irans oil exports, this is not stopping the country from continuing trade where possible and preparing for life after sanctions.

This month, the Head of National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) Mohsen Khojasteh-Mehr stated that oil revenues climbed significantly in 2021. This has been supported by both public and private sector investments in the countrys oil industry. Iran has seen an increase in its sales of crude oil as well as gas condensates and petrochemical products in recent months.

Oil Minister, Javad Owji, reported last week that Irans budget for the year, commencing in March, has factored in oil sales of 1.2 million bpd. This is a substantial aim seeing as China is Irans only officially known oil importer. It is clear that Iran has been exporting oil at an increasing rate in recent years, however, due to ongoing U.S. sanctions, no other countries have admitted to importing Iranian oil.

Iran is nonetheless investing in its oil industry by opening a super heavy oil refinery on the southern island of Qeshm. President Ebrahim Raisi opened the first phase of the $220 million Qeshm refinery last week. The new plant offers Iran a significant opportunity to boost its petrochemical output, with crude arriving at the refinery from the Soroush and Nowruz oilfields. It has the potential to turn 35,000 bpd of super-heavy crude oil into a variety of products, including bitumen, naphtha, diesel, and light oil. And this figure is expected to rise to around 100,000 bpd within the next three years.

Elsewhere, the government is making plans for a new pipeline project. This month, Irans National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) signed a memorandum of understanding with Bank Mellat for the financing of the construction of a strategic oil pipeline over a four-year period. The Tabesh pipeline, which will be built to connect the Kerman and Razavi Khorasan Provinces, is expected to measure 948 km at a cost of $425.1m. Included in this price are three terminals and two pump stations. NIORDC is aiming for a total transportation capacity of 150,000 bpd of petrol products, ensuring greater fuel security in the east and northeast of Iran.

Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji stated, "If this pipeline is not there, about 800 to 1000 tankers would be needed to carry this product daily." In addition, "The project is important for fuelling power plants and industries [in this region], but also for exporting to neighbouring countries, including Afghanistan and Pakistan."

Yet, Iran still remains firmly under U.S. sanctions, limiting the oil-rich countrys potential for growth. Iran and the United States continue their stand-off over the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal but, despite stubbornness from both sites, Iran and the U.S. both stand to benefit from the signing of an agreement. For Biden, it would mean advances in U.S. foreign policy, following a messy exit from Afghanistan. For Iran, it would mean the alleviating of conflict, as well as the potential to revive its economy through greater oil revenues and increased trade in general.

Recently, Iran has garnered greater support from major world powers China and Russia in its battle against the U.S., following years of almost total opposition. In a meeting between Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian a 25-year cooperation agreement was announced between the two states. Wang stated in the meeting that the U.S. bore the primary responsibility for the continuing difficulties with Iran, due to its unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He also said that China opposes illegal unilateral sanctions against Iran.

Similarly, in a meeting this week between President Vladimir V. Putin and President Ebrahim Raisi, the Russian leader said his country had been resisting America for 40 years. He suggested that the two states, along with China, should put on a united front against the U.S. Despite significant differences between the two states, Putin said On the international arena, we are cooperating very closely.

While U.S. sanctions on Iran continue, and tensions mount over ongoing negotiations, Iran seems set on developing its oil industry. With plans for increased oil sales over the next year, greater oil security through the construction of a new pipeline, and the increase of petroproduct output thanks to its new super-heavy crude refinery, Iran is clearly setting itself up to take center stage in regional oil production. And with support from major players like China and Russia, it is only a matter of time until Iran achieves this goal.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

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Iran's Oil Industry Is Preparing For Life After Sanctions - OilPrice.com

It may sound fantastic now,and was probably not really feasible even then.

But according to the Pentagons own Joint Chiefs of Staff, sometime in the mid-1980s, American military planners wanted Israel to take part in a war which would start in Iran and spread to the Eastern Mediterranean, where the Israel Air Force would be tasked with striking Soviet ships and othermilitaryunits.

Irans bizarre but worrying espionage campaign against Israel: LISTEN

This comes not from some scoop-seeking scholar, but from the horses mouth. David B. Crist,theJoint ChiefsSenior Historian specializing in Iran and its 43-year conflict with eight U.S. administrations, is a Reserve Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel,with combat deployments in the Middle East and Special Forces background.

He has been privy to secret contingency plans,has observed Irans activities in the Gulf and beyond and appears to be IDF-friendly, having being associated with the pro-Israel Washington Institute.

Recently, Crist uploaded to the Joint Chiefs website an unusual,even dramatic presentationwith an understated title: "U.S. Central Command Campaign Planning Against The Soviet Union, 1979-87." It was originally shown to the current Commanding General of CENTCOM, Frank McKenzie, a fellow Marine, and his officers.

Military history centers are not academically oriented, though they aimto offerthe most thorough research. Their mission is to provide todays cadre with case studies of past events, in order to distill relevant lessons for immediate and future use in either the same places or in similar dimensions of warfare.And this presentation is no exception. It offers a window into U.S. military strategic thinking about taking on Iran today and what Israels role would be in such an operation.

These days, it is quite routine for the Israeli Navy to practice interoperability with theU.S.sBahrain-based Fifth Fleet and for the IDF to train withU.S.fighter squadrons in exercises such as last weeks Desert Falcon, as part of its military relationship with the U.S.s CENTCOM, which watches over the Gulf. But this was not the case in the last quarter-century before themillennium, and it was definitely not imagined by most to bea partnershippointed against Russia.

Defense collaboration (rather than simply assistance) between the Pentagon and Tel AvivsKiryadefenseHQ began following the Yom Kippur War, picked up steam after the Camp David accords - when Egypt, too, joined the American orbit and took off momentarily under President Ronald Reagan, with Defense Minister Ariel Sharon signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Secretary of Defense CasperWeinberger.

Thisunprecedenteddocument reflected a tug of war between Washington, wishing to paint its relationship with Israel as anti-Soviet rather than anti-Arab, and Jerusalem,with an opposite policy, fearful of alienating Moscow.

This agreement was almost immediately cancelled when Israel annexed the Golan Heights. It was revived andupgradedwhen Yitzhak Shamir, as prime minister, and Moshe Arens, as foreign minister, replaced Menachem Begin and Sharon.

Washington welcomed them, along with Ehud Barak, then head of militaryintelligence,and hisplanning colleague Menachem Einan, for are-launch of talks and the setting up of mechanisms, protocols and joint projects, including the rare provision of pre-positioning sites for U.S. munitions in Israel for immediate availability in case of emergency. There were apparently at least six such sites, numbered 51-56, with 54 described as a 500-bed hospital for war casualties.

Reading Crists account, it now turns out that some key American officials, most prominently Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Armitage, had creative ideas for taking therenewedpartnership to the next level.

Armitage, Colin Powells closest friend and later Deputy Secretary of State, forged a warm bond with Barak and Major General Uri Simhoni, the Defense Attache (who passed away last month, several weeks after their buddy, Powell).And there was a specific mission that would confirm their collaboration.

The Soviets were always suspected of harboring a plot to invade Iran, perhaps with help from the inside by the Communist-leaning Tudeh party. But following the Soviet incursionintoneighboring Afghanistan,and Khomeinis taking power in Tehran, vowing to export the Islamic revolution, the old scenario was refreshed.

Now,theSovietsmotive would be to prevent the spread of Khomeinism to the USSRs Muslimrepublics and Afghanistan,and to stop "the fragmentation of the Iranian state caused by internal strife or defeat" in the (1980-88) Iran-Iraq War.The Soviets interest in some form of control over Iran sprang from two core reasons: The first, irridentist/territorial, wanting to swallow up northern Iraninto then-Soviet controlledAzerbaijan, andthe second strategic: To have Persian Gulf bases for their fleet.

The "Large-Scale Soviet Invasion Plan" Crist found in the files showed arrows drawn south from Armenia and the Caspian Sea towards the capital, Tehran indicating the large-scale movement of Soviet military forces and then on to Isfahan, Khuzestan and Bandar Abbas,on the Gulf,with the invading forces drawn from a pool of "24-29 Mechanized or Armor Divisions, one Airborne Division and 700-1000 strike aircraft."

U.S. counter-strategy, according to Col. Crist, was "to deter the Soviets from invasion" byowning the capacity "to deploy and sustain a credible force to the region, with the clear indication that a Soviet attack on a vital American interest would mean war with the United States. If a conflict begins, be prepared to attack and defeat any Soviet effort to control the oil of the Middle East."

Also, and this is where Israel comes in,the U.S. would aim to "widen the conflict beyond just the Middle East to other areas where the U.S. and our allies hold military advantage." The documents quoted are fromDefense SecretaryWeinberger toJoint ChiefsChairman David Jones, an Air Forcegeneral, and vice versa.

This sounds likethe script for alimited version of World War III,with nuclear weaponsincluded. If the plan didn't call for Strategic Air Command strikes inside the Soviet Union,it did foreseeat leasttactical nuclear strikes on the USSR and Iran,shelling, mine-layingmines and "demolition packs" explosive charge carried onan infantrymans back, saboteur-style, but in this casecontaininganuclearcharge.

The "1004" plan proposed a so-called "Horizontal Escalation," escalating geographically andsandwiching Iran from the north and south,whereby American forces would operate from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and a Saudi jumpboard into Iran.

The plan also envisages an intensive sabotage campaign, led by U.S. Special Forces working with the CIA, who would embrace "unconventional warfare to develop a resistance movement disrupting Soviet forces by blowing bridges and attacking their rear areas."

A further layer of U.S. allied militaries, frommoderate, pro-Western countries in the region, would "operate against Soviet client states, especially those with historic animosity" towards the U.S., such as Syria.

This, specifiesCrists documents, "would include Israel, who would insure the safety of the Suez Canal by striking Soviet forces in the Eastern Mediterranean."

While Israel was earlier drawn into dogfights with Soviet fighters over Egypt and struck transports bringing equipment to Syria, its leaders from Ben-Gurion to Eshkol and Golda to Dayan always commented thatthey hadno illusions regarding the IDFs ability to withstand a Soviet onslaught. But the American planners let their imagination run wild, and it had its uses for their Israeli counterparts.

"We went along with the simulation," recalled an Israeli defense official whohelda central role then, "because it helped foster a closer relationship with our professional opposite numbers, who up until that time were more reserved.

"Indeed, we looked at options stemming fromsuperpower conflict around Syria or Cyprus, with the possibility of our being drawn in and clashing with Sovietair ornaval units. It was a modular, multi-part scenario, potentially based around Iran as a flashpoint,but with other narratives as well. As is customary with military organizations, it is not a plan, per se, that is important, as itwouldinevitably have to adapt to circumstances, butit was an exercise inthe practice of planning, in this case together," Israelis and Americans.

This was the seed of what has by now blossomed into a forest. The Soviet Union disintegrated shortly thereafter, but Russia is back in force in Syria and Iran is a perennial headache, so while the plan unearthed by theJoint Chiefshistorian was never put to a test, it iscertainlytoo early to consign it to a museum display.

The Pentagons decision to give Crists seemingly confidential briefing wider distribution mayalso be a message of its own. It could beintended to orient moreU.S.officers towards the considerations and constraints involved ina potentialwar against Iran, withIsraels participation,or without it.In the reports own words, "[T]he geography has not changed. Any Iranian-centric conflict will confront the U.S.with similar challenges."

Conspiratorial mindswillalso see it as a signal aimeddirectlyat Tehran, translating mere saber-rattling rhetoric into concrete combat schemes,completewith assigned units and projected timelines.

Amir Oren, a veteran observer of Israeli, American and NATO military and political affairs, has written for Haaretz on defense and government for more than two decades. Twitter: @Rimanero

View post:
Americas wild 'World War III' plan for Iran, and Israels part in it - Haaretz

As if they had found a new natural gas field of their own, the Israeli media was quick to report on an agreement purportedly signed between Israel and Lebanon for the sale of Israeli natural gas to its northern neighbor. The report on Israels N12 news website even managed to spur the U.S. administration to adamantly deny the existence of such a deal, but the news has still had a ripple effect.

In October, an agreement was indeed signed to ship Egyptian natural gas and Jordanian electricity to Syria, and from there to Lebanon. It provides for the gas to be shipped through the Arab Gas Pipeline, which runs from Sinai via Aqaba in Jordan to the Syrian city of Homs and from there to Lebanon. At the same time, with the reconstruction of power lines from Jordan to Syria and to Lebanon, Jordan will sell electricity to the Lebanese.

The draft of the plan was negotiated by Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and the United States in July, and it was clear to all involved that the United States would request that the other parties be granted an exemption from sanctions against Syria. In addition, it was agreed that Syria would collect a 10 percent cut on the Egyptian gas and 8 percent on the electricity transiting its territory.

The United States did indeed give Egypt and Jordan a letter confirming that they should not be concerned about violating anti-Syrian sanctions in providing the gas and electricity. They would only have to wait for renovation work on the Syrian stretch of the gas pipeline and the portion running from Homs to Lebanon, which is not connected to the Arab Gas Pipeline.

Israel was copied to the correspondence, but was never a party to the agreement. Even back when the deal with being negotiated, there were sensational stories in the Arab media about how Israeli natural gas would be illuminating the streets of Lebanon. Energy expert Matthew Zeiss even wrote an article for the Atlantic Councils website in October stating that Israeli gas would provide lighting for the headquarters of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

In its natural state, natural gas is odorless and colorless. The gas that Israel sells to Jordan is used to generate electricity some of which will also be provided to Lebanon but Israel and Jordan, as well as Lebanon, are not parties to an agreement that would segregate the gas to ensure that Israeli gas isnt used to generate the Jordanian electricity going to Lebanon. Thats simply because theres no practical way to do so.

The payment for the gas will be made through the International Monetary Fund, which has yet to resolve a problem regarding the repayment of a loan that would be granted to Lebanon. The Lebanese government is an amorphous concept. It isnt functioning and there is no confidence when it comes to its debt repayment. The suggested solution is paying Jordan and Egypt directly based on the amount of electricity and gas provided rather than having the payment go through Lebanon. The Lebanese would be charged when a miracle happens and it begins carrying out economic reforms that give it access to foreign assistance.

Hezbollah keeps mum

The reports of a gas deal between Israel and Lebanon even explained that it was aimed at curbing Irans influence in Lebanon and Syria, bringing Syria back into the Arab fold and reducing Hezbollahs influence in Lebanon. All that was missing was an assessment that the agreement would usher in world peace, or at least reduce global warming.

Iranian influence in Lebanon does not rely on those few oil tankers that the Iranians dispatched in September to the Syrian port of Banias at Hezbollahs request. Even the United States refrained from blocking the oil shipments. I dont think anyone is going to fall on their sword if someones able to get fuel into hospitals that need it, the U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, told the Al-Arabiya news network.

At the same time, she reported on the draft of the agreement to export the gas from Jordan and Egypt. Hezbollah took notice and didnt oppose it, maintaining its silence even when Arab media outlets reported that the Jordanian electricity destined for Lebanon would be generated from Israeli natural gas. In precisely the same way, Hezbollah gave its consent for negotiations between Lebanon and Israel to demarcate the maritime boundaries between the two countries, as a stable and orderly Lebanon is in the joint interest of Israel, Hezbollah, Iran and Syria.

The suggestion that Israel should demand diplomatic or military concessions in return for its consent to have natural gas provided to Lebanon is therefore also baseless. Not only is Israel not selling gas to Lebanon, it also cant veto Jordan and Egypts involvement, particularly when the United States is the one who devised the agreement.

Iran eyes the European market

While the dreamers have visions of a Middle East in which Israeli gas creates regime change, forges coalitions, shakes up Hezbollah and expels Iran from Syria, its actually worth planning for Irans reentry into the world gas market particularly the European one.

The discovery of a gigantic gas reserve in Iranian waters in the Caspian Sea, the Chalous field, puts Iran at the top of the rankings as a regional gas producer. The Western experts assess that the field contains more gas than any reserve at the Pars gas reserve site that Iran shares in the Gulf with Qatar, which itself is considered the largest offshore gas reserve in the world.

Officials at the Iranian Energy Ministry are already talking about Iran being able to supply about 20 percent of Europes natural gas needs. On the assumption that a new international nuclear agreement is signed with Iran and that sanctions against the regime are lifted, Iran could become an alternative to Russia in supplying Europe with natural gas, or at least reduce European dependence on Russian gas.

But the process of transforming Iran into an option for Europe's gas needs would face quite a few roadblocks. Iran is a signatory to a 25-year strategic agreement with China, which grants the Chinese preferential access to Iranian oil and gas at reduced prices in return for hundreds of billions of dollars in Chinese investment. And a strategic agreement that Iran and Russia just agreed to extend will also limit Tehrans ability to compete in the European market. Russia views its gas pipeline to Europe not only as an economic asset but also as a source of essential diplomatic and strategic leverage. Moscow will not let any country push it out of this lucrative arena.

In addition, the Islamic Republic lacks facilities and other means to liquefy gas, which impedes its ability to compete in the liquefied gas market. Iran will require thorough reforms in how its natural gas is used. Currently its mainly for domestic consumption, with only about 7 percent being exported to its neighbors.

Even if Iranian sales of natural gas to Europe are currently theoretical mainly due to American sanctions Iran intends to substantially boost its output of gas this year and to be a significant player in the Central Asian gas market. The tripartite agreement to supply gas that it signed in November with Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, as well as its supply agreement with Turkey, ensure that the huge reserves in its territory and in the Caspian Sea will find new markets.

With the lifting of sanctions, Iran would also be able to sell or give away quantities of gas to Lebanon, and in the process ensure its economic and political influence in the country. This would even spare Lebanon the need to buy gas and electricity from Egypt and Jordan. It would be imprudent, then, to expect that using Israeli natural gas will chase Iran out of Syria and Lebanon.

More:
Israeli gas will illuminate Lebanon's streets, but Iran isn't leaving them anytime soon - Haaretz

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One would not usually associate Iranand its snow-clad mountains, arid deserts, high plateaus, lush green Hyrcanian forests and the Persian Gulf coast with crocodiles. But Sistan and Baluchestan, the countrys second-largest province by area, that borders Pakistan and Afghanistan, is home to the animals. They are in the news for rising attacks on people due to climate change.

The BBC December 28, 2021 described how conflict had increased between crocodiles and humans in Sistan-Baluchestan due to extreme scarcity of water.

Asghar Mobaraki, Irans foremost expert oncrocodiles, noted in an academic article last year:

The (crocodile) population in southeastern Iran remains severely vulnerable to extreme climatic events, such as periodic droughts and floods. Iranian crocodiles are therefore directly impacted by climate change and are in critical need of immediate study to evaluate this threat.

Do these animalsprey on humans?

They are not large enough to attack humans, so they dont prey on them. But attacks do happen and increase in the dry and wet season. Since 1979, we have had 4-5 fatal attacks, all on school children. In the past four years, we had two attacks that resulted in the loss of an arm and a hand of two young children, Mobaraki told Down To Earth.

In my records, from 2012 to 2022, there were eight attacks with only one fatality. I only have one attack recorded from before 2012 and that one occurred in 2003 (and it was fatal). There were, of course, other attacks prior to 2012 and going much further back, but to the best of my knowledge these were not recorded in official records, Brandon Sideleau, who manages CrocBITE, a worldwide crocodilian attack database, toldDTE.

What should be done to solve human-crocodile conflict in Iran in the light of increasing climate change?

Mobaraki said: Public education and awareness, improving infrastructure, providing basic living facilities, management of human settlements development, managing the crocodiles and using crocodile excluding devices could be some solutions.

Sideleau said he would recommend similar measures to what is being done in India and Sri Lanka.

He noted that CEEs (Crocodile Exclusion Enclosures) could be quite effective in mitigating crocodile attacks in Iran since most attacks occurred on bathers and clothes washers in freshwater areas.

Community education and outreach is of vital importance since it allows the community to understand crocodile safety and it actively involves them in conservation and management. In Iran, drought is a major issue. So, the lack of available water is bringing people into conflict with crocodiles. CEEs would help a lot here, as would plumbing and safer access to freshwater. However, all these cost money and funding isnt always available, Sideleau told DTE.

Indeed, Sistan-Baluchestan is considered among the poorest and most under-developed regions in Iran.

The province is home to the Baloch people, who make up the majority and overlap into the neighbouring Balochistan province of Pakistan. The province is also home to Chabahar on the Persian Gulf, where India is building a huge port.

The Sunni Baloch population in the province has often complained of discrimination by the Shia Persian regime in Tehran.

Crocodiles in Iran

The crocodile found in Iran is the same species that is present throughout the Indian subcontinent, the mugger crocodile or Crocodylus palustris. Regional differences are possible, depending on factors such as resource availability, Sideleau said.

He noted:

The Iran muggers represent the westernmost population of mugger crocodiles and the westernmost population of crocodiles before you reach the Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus) in Africa. There is a no mans land with no crocodilian species from Iran to Egypt, where Nile crocodiles are currently found in Lake Nasser, the reservoir created by the Aswan High Dam. This no mans land is almost certainly due to the aridity of the region and the lack of habitat.

Crocodiles in Sistan-Baluchestan are known by the Balochi term Gando, meaning moving on a belly,Mobaraki told DTE.

We estimated that there are 500 gandos in Iran currently, almost all of them in Sistan-Baluchestan, Mobaraki said.

An estimated 500 wild muggers remain within the southeastern part of Iran, in Sistan and Baluchestan Provinces (the Gandou Protected Area). They occupy ponds along two large rivers, namely Bahu-Kalat and Kaju, two dam reservoirs (Pishin and Zirdan), small artificial water dams, and some manmade local ponds in villages,the article written by Mobaraki last year, noted.

He agreed with Sideleaus view that the gandos of Iran were scientifically considered to be the same as the muggers of the Indian subcontinent.

But the Iranian populations are in an extreme habitat. Hence, they seem to be a bit polymorphically different. They are smaller than their Indian relatives, Mobaraki said.

Iran had been in the news over climate change in November 2021, when the residents of Isfahan, the countrys third-largest city, had clashed with authorities over the disappearance of the citys river, the Zayandeh-Roud.

The protestors alleged that the rivers water was being diverted to neighbouring Yazd province even as extreme drought had affected most of the country.

Indeed, the problem of drought caused by human-induced climate change is a nagging one for Iran. It has increased in the years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Critics have alleged that the issue has been exacerbated because of mismanagement by the regime.

The Iran Meteorological Organization has estimated that some 97 per cent of the country is dealing with drought at some level, according to media reports.

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Yes, there are crocodiles in Iran and they are in trouble due to climate change - Down To Earth Magazine

Izvestia: Whats on the agenda of the Lavrov-Blinken talks in Geneva

Real negotiations on security guarantees will begin only after Moscow receives an official written response from the United States and NATO to its proposals, a source familiar with the course of contacts told Izvestia. The January 21 scheduled meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, implies "only discussion" of guarantees, the source said. Before talking to his Russian counterpart, the US top diplomat visited Ukraine and headed to Germany. The itinerary of his tour makes it clear that work on de-escalation is proceeding along the Washington-Berlin-Kiev-Moscow track, where the Russian-US dialogue plays a decisive role.

"The negotiations between Russia and the United States on January 21 are, in fact, just a discussion," an informed source familiar with the course of the consultations told Izvestia. "Real negotiations can begin only after Moscow receives a written answer. Thats when decisions will be made. So far, we have no such answer," the source said.

Meanwhile, this source emphasized that Moscow is not going to change its negotiating positions, since "they are all set out on paper". The Russian side wants everything to go quickly. This should not be "a process that will drag on for months and years". Therefore, Moscow is actively urging the West to give it an official answer, according to Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, it expects to receive it "any day now".

These consultations could launch negotiations on European security, arms control and confidence-building measures, head of the International Order and Democracy program at the German Council on Foreign Relations Stefan Meister told Izvestia.

At the same time, despite all the geopolitical risks, it is still possible to reach a compromise. One option is for NATO to say that the alliance is not abandoning its "open door" policy, expert at the Center for Security Studies at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich Henrik Larsen told the newspaper.

Tehran gave Moscow a draft of a 20-year-long strategic cooperation agreement following yesterdays talks between Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. The Russian head of state noted that Russia and Iran are closely cooperating in many areas, including the fight against terrorism. In addition, over recent years, trade between the two countries has increased. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, pressure from the West, which both states are experiencing, could push Moscow and Tehran towards closer cooperation, even in the security sphere.

Putin highlighted the growing trade between the countries, pointing out that in 2021, it had exceeded $3.3 bln. Further development of bilateral relations can be facilitated by the conclusion of a comprehensive agreement on strategic partnership, Raisi believes. The Iranian president also encouraged the Russian leader to unite against the backdrop of sanctions pressure from Washington and its allies.

Given the extensive souring of relations between Russia and the United States, there is no doubt that Moscow will strengthen ties with Iran, orientalist Vyacheslav Matuzov told Izvestia. The commentator does not rule out that they can even transform into allies, since Russia and Iran are under pressure that goes beyond international law. "This is pushing Russia, Iran, and China, as well as other countries to work together more closely in order to protect themselves from lawlessness," the expert emphasized.

Political scientist Roland Bidzhamov agrees. According to him, in the current situation, Russia and Iran need to conclude an agreement on strategic partnership. "This will help foster cooperation in various fields, including the economy. At the same time, Moscow and Tehran need to switch to settlements in national currencies," the expert believes.

Ankara is ready to provide its negotiating platform for organizing a Russian-Ukrainian summit, according to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who invited his colleagues Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky to "settle all differences". This is not the first proposal by the authorities of a NATO member state to provide diplomatic mediation in resolving the Donbass conflict, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Nevertheless, experts doubt that the Turkish initiative interests the Kremlin.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, commenting on the Turkish presidents initiative, noted that the place of organizing the proposed top-level contacts is a secondary issue. "The most important thing is to persuade Ukraine," he stressed.

Head of the Department of international relations and political science at Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam University Togrul Ismayil told the newspaper, that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine is extremely detrimental for Ankara, like any conflicts in the Black Sea region. In this regard, Turkey is ready to do everything possible to prevent any confrontation. Prior to this present bid, Erdogan had offered mediation between Kiev and Moscow. Ankara is trying to avoid an escalation, the expert said, adding that Erdogan has good personal relations with both Putin and Zelensky.

Head of R. Politik analytical center, political scientist Tatyana Stanovaya, explained to Nezavisimaya Gazeta that for Moscow the question of negotiations with Kiev had lost its meaning back in 2020. "So, it doesnt matter what platform is used for it," the expert maintained. "Now everything revolves around negotiations on security guarantees between Russia and the United States, and the issue of the Donbass conflict has become just one of the episodes - albeit the most serious ones - of this much larger agenda," she added.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet announced that she was completing a report on the situation in Xinjiang. But the work was not published due to the fact that Beijing did not allow the organization to visit the autonomous region. The US and its allies claim that the Uyghurs are being persecuted and are even facing genocide, while Beijing denies this accusation. US Congressional members are urging Bachelet to publish the report before the opening of the Beijing Olympics on February 4. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that China might ignore the report altogether.

American lawmakers demanded that the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights release its assessment of China's policy in Xinjiang before the Olympics. This, they say, will serve as an important reminder that no country where a serious violation of human rights occurs can escape an international probe. The Office of the High Commissioner has so far kept silent about the date when the report will be distributed.

Deputy Director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Alexander Lomanov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta, "It is impossible to disrupt the Olympics as a sporting event. The coronavirus has become its main enemy. And the US takes second place. After all, the Omicron strain entered China before February 1, the beginning of the [Chinese] New Year, which is a very big holiday." "During that week, people may not go to work. In addition, this is a rare chance to visit relatives. Tens of millions of people will be moving from big cities to small ones, from small towns to the countryside," the expert said, adding that the authorities will have to ensure that the tradition does not lead to the spread of the virus.

Moldova once again runs the risk of being left without gas supplies from Russia. Following two days of negotiations, the parties failed to agree on deferring payment for January. Chisinau lacks about $25 mln, which, after the introduction of a state of emergency in the energy sector will have to be withdrawn from the budget. According to Kommersant, despite the critical situation, the Moldovan authorities are in no hurry to visit Russia to discuss payments for gas.

Since November, Moldovagaz and Gazprom have entered into a new five-year contract for 3.3 bln cubic meters of gas per year, thus preventing a complete halt of Russian gas supplies to the Eastern European country. Given the current increase in spot gas prices in Europe, Moldova secured relatively low prices. Nevertheless, gas prices for Moldovagaz are constantly growing - from $450 per 1,000 cubic meters in November to $550 in December and $647 in January.

Dmitry Marinchenko from Fitch noted that quite possibly that Moldova is paying for gas about as much as European buyers are, but significantly more than other CIS countries (like Belarus and Armenia). Katya Yafimava of OIES told the newspaper that Moldovagaz has a lack of cash because consumers pay it on delivery (rather than upfront), and even higher tariffs are not enough to cover the sharp increase in import prices. "I dont see geopolitics here, at least from the Russian side. Since a similar situation had occurred in November, the Moldovan government knows that Gazprom is serious and it will not be possible to accumulate new debt," she noted.

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Press review: Iran offers Russia long-term deal and whats on the Lavrov-Blinken agenda - TASS