Mediaboss Marketing

In the long war between Iran and its rivals in the Middle East, most of it occurring beneath the surface, Tehran is increasingly using remotely piloted drones to mount attacks. In May and June the Iranians were behind at least five such attacks against American bases in Syria and Iraq.

Earlier, on May 18, while Israel was deep in the air war with Gaza, an Iranian drone was launched from Iraq, passed over Jordan and entered Israeli airspace before being downed over the Beit Shean Valley in the north.

Israel released few details on the downing of the aircraft, though both then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Aviv Kochavi, mentioned the stymieing of the drone in speeches at the end of the fighting with Gaza. Netanyahu views the incident as proof that Iran is the true patron of terrorism in the Middle East.

Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, Jr., the head of U.S. Central Command, warned in April that the region is becoming a proving ground for drones, most of them Iranian-made. Iran isnt the only player in the region that covets these weapons. For Hamas, which employed them liberally before and during the fighting in May, drones let the group, to some degree, respond to Israels vast air superiority a cheap substitute for an air force.

The moment that transformed the regions perception of drones occurred in September 2019, when Iran attacked Saudi oil facilities. The attack caused huge damage to a site of Saudi Aramco, the worlds biggest oil company, and disrupted oil exports from the kingdom for several months.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards big success a coordinated strike of drones and cruise missiles on targets about 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) away stunned military experts in Israel and the West. To the Iranians, it didnt matter that many of their drones apparently didnt reach their target. The impact on the consciousness was more important.

The IDF believes that the choice to massively develop drones makes sense for Iran. It jibes with the old Iranian ethos linking scientific and technological progress, independent manufacturing and self-reliance within what Spiritual Leader Ali Khamenei likes to call the resistance economy.

The Iranians specialize in making replicas, good or less so, of advanced weapons systems produced in other countries, based on reverse engineering of these weapons. Some of the final products dont meet Western standards, but Iran believes the results are sufficient.

Operational and strategic constraints also play a part. For many years Iran invested in developing rockets and missiles of various ranges. The trouble is that a ballistic missile is heavy, awkward and inflexible. True, its an important deterrent, but its noisy, as it were, and doesnt allow for deniability as drones do. When Iran launched missiles at American bases in Iraq, after the assassination of the Guards Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani, the Americans reacted fiercely.

But with a drone, a military source in Israel says, its easier to dream. The Iranians use of drones is influenced by what the Americans and especially the Israelis did with them earlier, in the so-called war between the wars.

From the operational angle, a chisel is sometimes preferable to a hammer. Drones are relatively easy to operate, require small launch crews and are easy to move between sectors and organizations. Its easy to train soldiers to operate them, and the drones can be launched in various ways and from a variety of platforms.

From the strategic angle, the adversary can be harassed without prompting a harsh response that will lead to war. Organizations that dont actually exist claimed responsibility for some of the drone attacks in Iraq, though it can be surmised that Shiite militias run by Iran were behind these efforts. Drones are also an alternative to Iranian fighter planes, which simply dont exist except for ancient American Phantoms dating to the shahs time.

According to a survey published this year on the website Iran Primer, in 2004 the Iranians started transferring drones and spare parts to their partners in at least four parts of the Middle East: Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and the Gaza Strip. Drones were also smuggled to Venezuela, whose government is friendly with Iran.

The Iranian drones are divided between intelligence-collecting missions and attack/suicide missions. They have different ranges, from hovercraft with a range of 15 kilometers to drones that can fly 1,700 kilometers.

The attacks have targeted the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and extremist Sunni organizations in Syria and Iraq. In an article for the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, the analyst Fabian Hinz describes the drone deliveries to the militias as part of Irans asymmetric strategy designed to offset the countrys military weaknesses. Hinz discerns an Iranian approach that combines arms smuggling, manufacturing in the target countries and the installation of precision kits to improve rockets.

In tweets at the beginning of July, Hinz discussed Khameneis visit to a Revolutionary Guards weapons exhibition in 2014 where new drones and missiles were on display. It turns out that some of these weapons were used in the attack on Saudi Arabia five years later. Hinz concludes that some of the systems are actually made by the Revolutionary Guards and not by Irans military industries.

The impression gleaned by the IDF is that the Iranians have completed the whole production chain in developing drones. Theyre developing all the basic components themselves the body of the aircraft, the engine, the navigation systems, the ability to ensure a low radar signature and to maneuver between the flight range and the weight of the load, a military source says.

The Iranians have sewed themselves a comfortable suit, with an effective means that can be used both in the war between the wars and in wartime. Theres no tiebreaker here: Drones are intended for harassment, collection and deterrence, not for victory. But their progress has been significant. Its no wonder the Americans, like us, are worried about it.

The next big thing

The urgent need for an enhanced response to drones and hovercraft has been raised in all the recent security meetings between Israel and the United Sates, including the Washington visits by Gantz and Kochavi. At the same time, intelligence and radar cooperation has been upgraded between Israel and Centcom, whose units are scattered throughout the region. It cant be ruled out that this was linked to the interception of the Iranian drone over northern Israel in May.

In addition, adjustments have been made to the Iron Dome system, which originally wasnt intended to battle drones, which fly at modest speeds. During the fighting in May, tweaks let Iron Dome intercept drones for the first time.

The challenge that the drones of Iran and its satellites pose to us is constantly increasing, a senior General Staff officer told Haaretz. Were working to improve our capability, but we arent yet sure that the response is complete.

Another officer added: The problem isnt only the meager radar signature that the drones leave, its that so many organizations operated by Iran already possess them. Along with improving our defense, we need to develop the possibility to identify Iranian responsibility for attacks.

At the moment, theyre under the mistaken impression that they have ... room for deniability that will blur their responsibility and prevent a response against them. That might have worked on the Saudis; it must not be allowed to work on us.

Drones great power was illustrated in the past year in two offensives that Israel took part in, one of them directly. The first was the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia during the fall, the second was the fighting with Gaza.

In the six weeks of the war in the Caucasus, the Azerbaijanis had the upper hand, largely thanks to their massive use of Israeli- and Turkish-made drones. The Armenians had to ask for a cease-fire.

Military experts in the West believe that the drone attacks provided the Azerbaijanis with an immense advantage; they systematically hit Armenian infantry, armor and artillery. That success will likely step up the production of drones around the world, along with small hovercraft that fly lower.

As they did with the Iranians, the drones gave the Azerbaijanis a simple and cheap way to use precision munitions. Azerbaijan also published footage of its hits on Armenian troops.

The Washington Post wrote that the Nagorno-Karabakh war provided the most vivid illustration of drones ability to change a campaign hitherto dictated by planes and ground forces. The war also showed that even advanced weapons, from radar to tanks, are exposed to destruction from the air in the absence of a specific defense.

The Armenians aging Soviet antiaircraft systems couldnt cope, and the drone attacks opened a path for ground advances. According to various estimates, about a third of the Armenian tanks were destroyed in these attacks.

Israel took the use of drones and hovercraft one step further in the fighting in May. For the first time, swarms of drones attacked Hamas after rocket launchers were spotted. This method is based on a rapid analysis of information received via artificial intelligence to identify launch sites.

The swarms were set in motion with the drones communicating and coordinating among one another. Part of Israels progress will be presented to foreign air forces in a first international exercise of its kind that the air force will soon host.

Originally posted here:
Irans drone revolution takes off - Haaretz

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivers a televised speech in Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2021. (Official Khamenei Website/Handout via Reuters)

On the menu today: Not only is Iran plotting to kidnap American citizens, but on a wide variety of fronts, the regime in Tehran is biting the Biden administrations outstretched hand; the U.S. may have taken a worthwhile action against Russian hackers; and Andrew Cuomo is still lying about how many New Yorkers died from COVID-19 not by a handful of cases or a rounding error, but by more than 10,000 deaths.

The More Things Change, the More Iran Stays the Same

At some point, the Biden administration will have to stop letting the Iranians urinate on its shoes while its inviting them to further negotiations about their nuclear program. Tehran is not interested in making concessions, and it is not interested in changing its behavior. The mullahs think the Biden administration is a bunch of nave suckers, and they dont really hide their contempt.

For starters, the U.S. must not make concessions to regimes that plot to kidnap American citizens who dare criticize that regime:

In an indictment unsealed in federal court in Manhattan, four Iranians were charged with conspiring to kidnap the journalist and author, Masih Alinejad.

. . . The four defendants all live in Iran and remain at large, the prosecutors said, identifying one of them, Alireza Shavaroghi Farahani, 50, as an Iranian intelligence official and the three others as Iranian intelligence assets. A fifth defendant, accused of supporting the plot but not participating in the kidnapping conspiracy, was arrested in California.

The indictment describes a plot that included attempts to lure Ms. Alinejad, an American citizen, to a third country to capture her and forcibly render her to Iran. The intelligence official, Mr. Farahani, and his network used private investigators to surveil, photograph and video record Ms. Alinejad and members of her household in Brooklyn, the government said.

The extensive surveillance that Mr. Farahanis network procured included the use of a live, high-definition video feed depicting Ms. Alinejads home, prosecutors said.

This is not some far-fetched movie plot, William F. Sweeney Jr., the head of the F.B.I.s New York office, said in a statement.

. . . Another of the agents, Kiya Sadeghi, researched a service offering what the government described as military-style speedboats for a self-operated maritime evacuation out of Manhattan; and maritime travel from New York to Venezuela, whose leadership has friendly relations with the Iranian government.

Meanwhile, beyond New York City:

When the Iranians take actions such as those, the Biden administration looks foolish for removing Iranian oil-company officials from financial blacklists, lifting sanctions on Iranian energy companies, and contemplating lifting sanctions on Irans ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Why are we making life easier for a regime that keeps trying to kill or otherwise harm our citizens and our allies?

The International Monetary Fund just released new figures indicating that the Trump administrations maximum pressure campaign had dramatically reduced Irans Gross Official Reserves that is, its holdings of gold and foreign currencies by official monetary institutions from $122 billion in 2018 to $4 billion in 2020. Between sanctions and the problems of COVID-19, the Iranian regime was quickly going broke*. Elliot Abrams observes that, Whenever we hear that the maximum pressure campaign failed, we ought to recall that IMF statistic: Irans reserves almost disappeared between 2018 and 2020. By unilaterally relieving some sanctions in hopes of some future concessions, the Biden administration is grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.

Yes, the Biden policy hasnt been total appeasement so far. Late last month, U.S. military forces launched airstrikes against operational and weapons-storage facilities at two locations in Syria and one location in Iraq, where Iranian-backed militias were launching drone attacks against U.S. forces. And I dont know if a recent cyberattack against Irans rail network was the work of the U.S. government; it doesnt really fit our methods or goals. Its a civilian target, and the U.S. doesnt really gain much by lousing up the commutes of ordinary Iranian citizens:

Irans railroad system came under cyberattack on Friday, a semi-official news agency reported, with hackers posting fake messages about train delays or cancellations on display boards at stations across the country.

The hackers posted messages such as long delayed because of cyberattack or canceled on the boards. They also urged passengers to call for information, listing the phone number of the office of the countrys supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Okay, that last detail is funny.

Foreign policy can be complicated, but in the end, it boils down to incentives, deterrents, and consequences. Right now, the Iranians dont even fear the consequences of launching a plot to kidnap an American citizen off the streets of New York for being an outspoken critic of the regime.

And speaking of tough rhetoric not matching up with the administrations actions . . .

Earlier this week, former assistant attorney general Jack Goldsmith reached the point of exasperation with the Biden administrations warnings to Vladimir Putin about Russian hackers:

On July 9, President Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that the United States will take any necessary action, including imposing unspecified consequences, if Russia does not disrupt ransomware attacks from its soil. The problem with this warning is that the United States has been publicly pledging to impose consequences on Russia for its cyber actions for at least five years usually, as here, following a hand-wringing government deliberation in the face of a devastating cyber incident. This talk has persisted even as adverse cyber operations have grown more frequent and damaging. It is ineffective and, in the aggregate, self-defeating . . .

Amazingly, the United States is in exactly the place it was five years ago when the Russians interfered in the 2016 election. It still has not figured out how to impose costs on the Russians that outweigh the Russians perceived benefits from these cyber operations. Whatever combination of public and secret sanctions it has been imposing clearly is not doing the trick.

The good news is that maybe U.S. cyberdefense is finally adding up to, as Elvis would put it, a little less conversation and a little more action:

A Russian-based hacker group blamed for a massive ransomware attack earlier this month has gone offline, sparking speculation about whether the move was the result of a government-led action.

The webpages of the group known as REvil disappeared from the dark web on July 13, cybersecurity researchers said. Both its data-leak site and ransom-negotiating portals were unreachable.

The researchers said that it was unclear whether the outage was the result of actions taken by law enforcement or whether REvil had voluntarily taken down its sites.

The situation is still unfolding, but evidence suggests REvil has suffered a planned, concurrent takedown of their infrastructure, either by the operators themselves or via industry or law enforcement action, John Hultquist of Mandiant Threat Intelligence said in a statement quoted by AFP.

The White House and U.S. Cyber Command declined to comment, according to the Associated Press.

Lets hope REvil becomes permanently REmoved from the Internet.

Yes, Andrew Cuomo Is Still Lying about New Yorks COVID-19 Death Toll

Remember how lots and lots of progressive activists, and their allies in the media, were absolutely convinced that the state of Floridas death records had been altered and falsified to hide a terrible death toll because of the decisions of Ron DeSantis? And to this day, they still insist thats the case, even though every medical official in the state says its a bunch of nonsense?

It turns out that the story is somewhat close to true, except its not DeSantis in Florida, its Andrew Cuomo in New York State:

The federal governments count of the COVID-19 death toll in New York has 11,000 more victims than the tally publicized by the administration of Gov. Andrew Cuomo, which has stuck with a far more conservative approach to counting virus deaths.

The discrepancy in death counts continued to widen this year, according to an Associated Press review, even as the Democrat has come under fire over allegations that his office purposely obscured the number of deaths of nursing home residentsto protect his reputation.

New York states official death count, presented daily to the public and on the states Department of Health website, stood at around 43,000 this week. But the state has provided the federal government with data that shows roughly 54,000 people have died with COVID-19 as a cause or contributing factor listed on their death certificate.

Its a little strange, said Bob Anderson, chief of the Mortality Statistics Branch at the Centers for Disease Control and Preventions National Center for Health Statistics. Theyre providing us with the death certificate information so they have it. I dont know why they wouldnt use those numbers.

Yes, strange is one word for it. Shameless, appalling, and disqualifying from high office would be others. It would be nice to live in a world where the true allegation about Cuomo generated as much anger and denunciation as the false allegation about DeSantis.

*Irans dire state isnt that far away from the grim portrait envisioned in the first chapters of Hunting Four Horsemen.

ADDENDA: Dan McLaughlin is right; if Time wants to run an op-ed column entitled The Conservative Case Against Banning Critical Race Theory, they should not select a former clerk for Ruth Bader Ginsburg who recently wrote a report entitled, On the Origins of Republican Violence.

Phil Klein is right; if Democrats are determined to pass a $3.5 trillion wish-list spending bill through reconciliation, theres no good reason for Republicans to sign on to the other, smaller infrastructure bill.

Ramesh Ponnuru is right; President Joe Biden says the U.S. is facing a crisis of democracy, but hes not acting as though he believes it.

And finally, Vox was spectacularly, laughably wrong, a few years back, when it sneeringly disputed one of my tweets and claimed that, China is tackling climate change with all guns blazing. The US, not China, is the laggard in this relationship.

See the rest here:
Irans Giant Middle Finger to the Biden Administration - National Review

Ebrahim Raisis election as president of Iran came as no surprise. All those who might have been a threat to him were disqualified. He was the choice of the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and small wonder: Few people better embody the ideology of the Islamic Republic. He will not open Iran up to the outside world, and will certainly not look to accommodate the United States in any way. As for Irans behavior in the Middle East, he has made clear that it is not negotiable.

The Israel-Hamas conflict last month was a reminder that nearly everything in the Middle East is connectedand whether were talking about Hamas rockets, the ongoing calamity in Yemen, or the Iran nuclear deal, Tehrans destabilizing role in the region is the common factor.

We understand why President Joe Biden seeks a return to the deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. The United States must roll back Irans nuclear program and then use the time left before the agreements sunset provisions lapse to either produce the longer and stronger deal the Biden administration seeks, or enhance our deterrence so Tehran understands that the U.S. will prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-threshold state.

However, although we are convinced of the value of containing Irans nuclear program, that is not enough. The administration will also need to counter what will almost certainly be Irans escalating efforts in the region: With the sanctions relief that will result from returning to compliance with the JCPOA, Tehrans troublemaking resources will increase. Donald Trumps maximum pressure campaign limited the resources Iran could make available for militant groups such as Lebanons Hezbollah, Shiite militias in Iraq, and the Palestinian outfits Hamas and Islamic Jihad, but it never stopped Irans ongoing provision of training, weaponry, and other material and technical assistance.

Karim Sadjadpour: Iran stops pretending

After the recent conflict with Israel, Hamas leaders effusively praised Tehran for what it had provided them. And we know from leaked audio that Irans own Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was frustrated by the Iranian regimes elite Quds Force consistently undercutting what he hoped to achieve with diplomacy. Moreover, Khamenei will want to show that the return to the JCPOA does not mean he is giving up his resistance ideology, so we can expect more Iranian expansion in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, as well as threats to neighboring states.

This fear of Irans regional agenda explains much of the opposition to the JCPOA, both when it was agreed and through to the present day. Many in the U.S. Congress as well as leaders of Middle East states worried thenas they do nowthat the administration and its European partners will wrongly see the Iran file as closed because they see the threat Iran poses too narrowly, and in only nuclear terms. Critics in the region, however, see the past as prologue: Just as Iran became much more active and aggressive in the Middle East after the JCPOA was agreed upon, so now do they expect threatening acts if and when the U.S. and Iran come back into compliance. Fairly or not, much of the region remains convinced that the Obama administration ignored Irans aggression out of a concern for jeopardizing the deals implementation.

The regional perspective on Iran is driven by these leaders experience with the Islamic Republic. For them, the core question with Iran, as Henry Kissinger once put it, is whether it is a country or a cause. The case for the latter is strong and deeply rooted: Revolutionary Iran uses Islamic, Shiite, and anti-colonialist rhetoric to justify an expansionist nationalistic agenda. Soon after the Iranian revolution, the execution of thousands of real or imagined regime opponents, support for terrorist groups throughout the region, unrelenting threats to Israels existence, the dangerous counteroffensive into Iraq in the 1980s, the assault on the U.S. in Lebanon in 1983, and the tanker war with America all made clear Irans nature and threat.

When, by 2005, Irans development of a nuclear-weapons program became apparent, it was first seen as yet another, if particularly dangerous, tool in Irans box of power politics. Thus, the Bush and Obama administrations declared that the U.S. would use force to stop Iran from developing a weapona threat not levied against South Africa, Libya, India, or Pakistan, each of which at various points had developed some nuclear capacity. Seen by the West as a dangerous cause, Iran was treated as an inherent aggressor.

The Obama administration understandably worried that if the Iranian nuclear program could not be stopped diplomatically, it would trigger a wider conflict, either because Israel, feeling existentially threatened, or the U.S., knowing the danger of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, would act. Pursuing diplomacy as the means to alter Irans behavior was for many reasons not just the logical but also the politically necessary path to follow. Inevitably, it implied that Iran was now not a cause but a country, whose nuclear ambitions, and perhaps, by extension, regional threat, could be tamed by traditional carrot-and-stick diplomacy.

Tom Nichols: Irans smart strategy

Some in the Obama administration came to believe that the JCPOA could signal a diplomatic regime change: By witnessing Western respect and trust, Iran would embrace the globalized made-in-America world.

If that was the bet, it didnt pay off. From 2013, when serious negotiations with the Iranian government began, until 2018, when Trump pulled out of the deal, Iran did not moderate its behavior. Instead, it accelerated its regional aggression, exploiting the instability caused by the Arab Spring as well as the rise of the Islamic State to expand its power. For many in the region, the lesson was obvious: There is no way to build trust with Iran, because Iran has an agenda to dominate the Middle East.

Regardless of how Israelis, Saudis, Emiratis, and others saw the Obama administration, Bidens approach toward Iran is clearly different from what they perceived Obamas to be. Note, for example, the following signs that the Biden team wont be passive in the face of direct or indirect threats from Iran: air strikes on both sides of the Iraq-Syria border in response to Iranian-backed Shiite militia rocket and drone attacks against Iraqi bases where U.S. forces are deployed; naval interdiction of dhows carrying Iranian weapons to Yemen; despite pressure, the stalwart support for Israels right to self-defense against Hamas rockets. At the same time, American officials are making commitments in private conversations with our allies in the region to not allow the nuclear file to change what the U.S. tolerates when it comes to Iran in the Middle East.

The challenge will be to follow up on these early moves and show, once the JCPOA is restoredwhich we both believe will happen sometime this yearthat the administration will work with our partners and contest the Iranians as they directly and via proxies expand and threaten others. The irony is that for diplomacy to work, whether on the nuclear question or on other regional issues, Tehran must know that there is muscle behind it. Absent pressure, there would have been no JCPOA, and if we want to deter Irans egregious actions, we must be able to show its leaders that they will pay a price.

As Israel is now in the U.S. Central Commands area of responsibility, along with the rest of the Middle East, the Biden administration should bring it together with our Arab partners to develop options and conduct contingency planning for dealing with Shiite-militia threats. The administration must also encourage the Gulf states to better support the Iraqi government; to use our collective assets to do more to suppress Irans ability to export weapons to its clients; and to support continuing Israeli strikes against Iranian efforts to build its military infrastructure and develop precision-guidance capabilities for Syrian and Hezbollah missiles.

During the Trump administration, Washington used differing means across the Middle Easts various countries but on the whole applied military, economic, and diplomatic pressure to impede Irans advance. Its actions were supported by a regional coalition that eventually coalesced into the Abraham Accords. Building on those agreements makes sense not only in terms of using Arab outreach to Israel in order to elicit Israeli moves toward peace with the Palestinians, but also in terms of strengthening the coalition that is arrayed against Iran.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Iran and the Palestinians lose out in the Abraham Accords

To succeed, the Biden administration will need to work with Arab, Israeli, and Turkish partners on Iranian regional issues, and maintain pressure on both Tehran and those governments tempted to yield to Iran. Such an approach does not preclude diplomacy; quite the contrary, it could promote it. Indeed, managed the right way, we may build Irans interest in a dialogue.

Ultimately, if regional discussions with Tehran are to have any chance of reducing tensions and minimizing the potential for conflict and escalation, they must generate the kind of pushback from the region that gives Iran a reason to temper its behavior.

Read this article:
The Iran Nuclear Deal Isnt the Problem. Iran Is. - The Atlantic

A natural gas flare on an oil well pad burns as the sun sets outside Watford City, North Dakota January 21, 2016. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen

June 30 (Reuters) - Who of the traditional bulls predicted a rally that saw oil prices doubling in the last eight months? The short answer is no one.

Of more than 50 analysts polled by Reuters last October when Brent was hovering near $35 per barrel amid a second large wave of global lockdowns to slow the coronavirus pandemic, almost none dared to predict prices would approach $60.

U.S. bank Goldman Sachs saw second-quarter average prices hitting $57.50 a barrel and much smaller Houston-based consultancy Stratas Advisors had the boldest bet at $60.

As prices have exceeded $75 per barrel this June, the most accurate forecasters predict a further rally fuelled by recovering demand and tight OPEC supply albeit at a more modest pace.

Overall, the 44 analysts polled by Reuters this month forecast benchmark Brent prices to average about $67.48 a barrel this year, up from the $64.79 consensus in May.

Oil demand was seen growing by 5-7 million barrels per day (bpd) this year.

"The upward range of oil will be limited by the ability of OPEC to bring back supply to address unexpected upward movements in demand and prices," John Paisie, Stratas Advisors president, told Reuters.

Paisie predicts Brent will average around $75 a barrel in the third quarter and $78.50 in 2022, adding: "One reason that we think that increase in oil prices will be more moderate is the strength of the U.S. dollar."

A firmer greenback makes oil priced in dollars more expensive in other currencies, potentially weighing on demand.

Goldman Sachs was more bullish, seeing Brent averaging $80 a barrel in the third quarter "with potential spikes well above", with the global market facing "its deepest deficits since last summer." read more

Most analysts expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, or OPEC+, to gradually unwind record output cuts this year, with discussions over easing likely to start in August. read more

Oil's rally could also face headwinds from a potential U.S-Iran deal that could boost global supplies and a spike in COVID-19 cases, which could undermine demand recovery, participants said.

Analysts saw Iran potentially adding about 1-2 million bpd of output into the global market over the next six months or so.

"The main question is whether Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers are ready to accommodate Iranian volumes while maintaining a tight control on their cumulative supply under the OPEC+ deal," said Intesa Sanpaolo analyst Daniela Corsini.

Reporting by Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Arpan Varghese, Noah Browning and Louise Heavens

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

More here:
Oil to sustain surprise rally despite Iran, third COVID-19 wave threat: Reuters poll - Reuters

They say time changes things, but actually you have to change them yourself, said Andy Warhol.

The pop artists famous paintings of Campbells soup cans and Coca-Cola bottles were actually criticized for their celebration of conformity, but his insight about change, whether cultural, social or political, sure was right: It never comes by itself.

That certainly goes for revolutionary Iran, where everyone except its oligarchy has been awaiting change for the past 42 years in vain.

Now, as its seventh president prepares to succeed the sixth, the questions are what Iranian voters just said, where their country is headed, and what the Jewish state should do. And the answers are that the people are bitter, their country is in the doldrums, and Israel should let it change by itself.

Yes, non-Islamist candidates could never even dream of being allowed to run, nor could anyone otherwise disagreeable to the regime, and also the entire female population.

Even so, the regime used to try to create an impression of democracy by choreographing presidential contests between hardliners and pragmatists. That is how Mohammad Khatami became president back in 1997, while advocating free speech, market reforms and a cultural thaw with the West.

cnxps.cmd.push(function () { cnxps({ playerId: '36af7c51-0caf-4741-9824-2c941fc6c17b' }).render('4c4d856e0e6f4e3d808bbc1715e132f6'); });

That gospel was crushed in 2009, when the regime robbed reformist candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi of his electoral victory and placed him under house arrest, where he continues to languish.

Still, the democratic masquerade continued. When Hassan Rouhani ran in 2013, he faced seven opponents, including a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards and a former commander of the air force.

Now even that veneer was shed. The clerics had one candidate and pushed aside anyone who might threaten his victory, even the notorious Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, for whom they stole the 2009 election.

RAISI IS no version of Hassan Rouhani or Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who earned academic degrees in Britain and the US, or of Mohammad Khatami, who lived in Germany and speaks four languages. Raisi, by contrast, is not known to have even finished high school.

What is not unknown is Raisis record as a prosecutor, which is harrowing. As a member of the forum that in 1988 sent to the gallows an estimated 5,000 untried prisoners, he is a slaughterer of his own people. (See Amnesty International, Blood-soaked secrets: Why Irans 1988 Prison Massacres are Ongoing Crimes Against Humanity, 2018.)

A regime that imposes on the citizens a man who mass-murdered innocent citizens says it is scared. And the regime is scared with good reason.

With the population more than double its size when the Islamists took over; with industry held hostage by the Revolutionary Guards, whose chieftains win tenders unfairly and then prize cronies and sideline professionals; with negligent planning resulting in dried lakes, rivers and faucets; and with the government fearful of corporate freedom and monetary discipline, the steadily shrinking economy is an inversion of the shahs era, when jobs were abundant and annual growth rates exceeded 10%.

On the eve of the coronavirus pandemic, unemployment in greater Tehran reportedly reached 41%. In some regions, youth joblessness has been higher than 60%, and university-educated womens unemployment exceeded 80%. The dollar, which in Khatamis time cost less than 9,000 rials, now costs more than 230,000.

The pandemic further debilitated the country, having plagued according to statistical Website Worldometer at least 3.11 million and killed at least 83,000.

Is it any wonder, then, that more than half the public didnt bother voting? Life stinks, they effectively said, and the unelected clerics who run the show now want to hand the wheel over to the murderer of our kith and kin. How much lower can we sink?

That, in brief, is where Irans political degeneration has arrived. Now, as its most violent leader since Ayatollah Khomeini approaches its helm, some might feel circumstances demand an extravagant Israeli attack on Iran. Nothing could be more wrong.

THE IRANIAN peoples abuse can only last so long. Ultimately, the people will respond.

Waiting for that days arrival demands much patience and poise, but that is what we must muster. Millions throughout Iran know the truth. They know Israel has never been their enemy and has taken nothing from them. Many of them also know that the Jewish nation actually recalls fondly the Persian Empire that restored Jerusalems leveled temple and returned the Land of Israel to the Jews.

Millions of Iranians also know that until the Islamist takeover, Israeli-Iranian trade was brisk, and that it will resume in earnest the day the fundamentalists will be removed.

And yes, Israelis know Irans nuclear program is intolerable and that sabotaging it is imperative. Even so, this should be done in a way that will not make average Iranians feel that Israel humiliated them.

Israel should initiate and also preempt, but only tactically; derail whatever it is the mullahs are plotting about us, bomb their Syrian outposts, sting their nuclear operation, but avoid the grand attack.

That attack should come not from without, but from within, and not from the air, but from below, and it should be waged not by foreigners, but by the great Persian people whom the ayatollahs have so thoroughly disempowered, dispossessed and dishonored, and now so justly fear.

Amotz Asa-Els bestselling Mitzad Haivelet Hayehudi (The Jewish March of Folly, Yediot Sefarim, 2019) is a revisionist history of the Jewish peoples leadership from antiquity to modernity.

Read more here:
Israeli attacks must not humiliate Iranian people ...