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Shifting regional geopolitical dynamics are creating new alliances and competition.

With the election of President Joe Biden's administration in the US and the continued Americanpivot to Asia, regional dynamics in the Middle East have entered a new phase. All states are adjusting their policies to this new reality, but Iran, in particular, hopes to use this next period to expand its regional zone of influence. While regional states are entering new alliances to limit Iran, Trkiye in particular may enter a new phase of competition with the Islamic Republic.

The Obama administrations Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) paved the way for further Iranian aggression in the Middle East. It wasSaudi Arabia that tried to confront Iran, engaging in several proxy wars with the Islamic Republic eventually losing ground and surrendering its influence in the region. Stuck in Yemen for years, Saudi Arabia no longer has meaningful tools to limit Iran in Syria and Iraq.

However, the election of Donald Trump, who exited the nuclear deal and pursued a maximum pressure campaign on Iran, gave Arab countries in the Middle East a period of reprieve from worrying about Tehrans reach. Some Arab states concentrated on limiting Trkiye instead, as they perceived Turkish influence on the Arab world as a direct threat to regime survival.

Iran, on the other hand, played thelong game. As the US increasingly turns its focus to China and Russia, Iran is anticipating an opportunity to consolidate its gains and increase its regional leverage.

Warning shots

In January, Iranian-backed Houthi and other militias targeted the UAE with drones and missiles, signalling Iranian capabilities to target the oil-rich Arab states. It was a warning shot clearly received in the Gulf nation. If Iran successfully negotiates a new nuclear deal and is relieved of economic sanctions, Tehran will be able to continue its policies of regional aggression via local proxies.

Cognizant of this new reality, the UAE is trying hard not only tonormalise relations with Trkiye but also to evolve it into a strategic partnership for its national security and economic interests. Years of rivalry with Ankara have taught Abu Dhabi of the formers capabilities, and it appears that it now wants Trkiye by its side.

Israel, too, appears toaccept that itneeds Trkiye. The recent normalisation of relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv will further expand the emerging alliance in the Middle East to contain Iran. The expectation of a more aggressive Iran one could say may have been a catalyst for the rapprochement of Israel and the UAE with Trkiye.

The importance of local partners

While all of the states have their military, economic and other capabilities they can wield against Tehran, it is Trkiye that has local partners in the key sites of Iranian expansion.

Without local partner forces, no state can confront Iran in the Middle East, as the Iranian playbook is based on proxy forces and proxy wars. Without strong local partners to confront Iran, their proxies will win.

In Syria, the Syrian Interim Government and its military, the Syrian National Army, are crucial to confront any possible Iranian aggression. Ankaras strong relations with the Syrian Interim Government may prove essential in limiting Iran. The Syrian National Army has proven its combat efficiency and is a powerfulanti-Iranian force in the Middle East. Most notably, Turkish drones and Trkiye-supported soldiers of the Syrian National Army haveeliminated dozens of Iranian-backed Shia militias in Idlib.

In Iraq, Turkish counterterrorism operations against the PKK terror group have reacheda new stage in which the Iranian-Turkish rivalry over Iraqi politics will decide the fate of the PKK. Trkiye wants to aid the Iraqi Central Government and the Kurdish Regional Government to re-establish sovereignty over territories currently held by the terror group. Iran wants toshield the PKK to keep Trkiye busy in the north of Iraq and therefore guarantee long-lived Iranian leverage over domestic Iraqi affairs.

In this manner, the results of the recent elections and the formation of a new government are crucial. Iranian allies lost, while the Sadr Movement won, and Turkish allies like the KDP and the Sunni parties won many seats in parliament. It was Trkiye thatbrought the Sunni Iraqi parties together.

Therefore, recent Turkish counterintelligence operations againstIranian cells in Trkiye could be just the beginning of a new era of Turkish-Iranian competition and regional alliances.

It appears that the UAE, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Syrian Interim Government, the Kurdish Regional Government, the Iraqi Central Government, the anti-Iranian forces in Lebanon, and other Arab states will bet on Trkiye to limit further Iranian aggression.

An increase in Turkish arms sales to the Gulf States, as well as growing economic and military cooperation, can be expected. Regional states that fear Iranian drone attacks and Iranian proxies will want to learn from the Turkish experience.

For Trkiye, its regional interests and the success of its counterterrorism operations will depend on limiting Iran. If Iran manages to achieve another wave of successes like it did against Saudi Arabia during the Obama administration, the results may be irreversible.

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT World.

We welcome all pitches and submissions to TRT World Opinion please send them via email, to opinion.editorial@trtworld.com

Source: TRT World

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A new era of Turkish-Iranian competition may be on the horizon - TRT World

JNS.org Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Tuesday that the critical juncture regarding Irans nuclear program was at hand, and reiterated that the Jewish state would not be bound by any agreement reached in Vienna.

Speaking at a ceremony at the Mossad intelligence agencys Advanced Technologies and Innovation Event, attended by senior security officials, Bennett said, While one of our eyeslike the whole worldis on Kyiv, the other eye watches, tensely, at what is happening west of there, in Vienna.

For Israel, said the prime minister, There is no such thing as sunset, referring to the so-called sunset clauses of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear accord, lifting all restrictions on Irans nuclear program after a set number of years have elapsed. The sun will not set on Israels security and the well-being of its citizens, said Bennett.

Echoing past statements, Bennett reiterated that any agreement reached in Vienna between Iran and the world powers would not be binding on the Jewish state. And the datetwo and a half years from nowwhich allows Iran to assemble countless centrifuges, certainly does not bind us, he added.

Israels security establishment, he continued, faces many tests over the coming yearsas well as in the near future.

I wish we could leave them in the theoretical or experimental dimension only. But as it looks right now, your hands will be full. The bigmonumentaltask that lies on your shoulders is to prevent Iran from going nuclear. This is a task you have been dealing with for many years, but we seem to be approaching the moment of truth As far as I am concerned, youtogether with the IDF, of courseare the address. The mission is on you.

Returning to the subject of Russias invasion of Ukraine, Bennett said, As the world becomes, almost overnight, gloomy and dangerous, our appreciation of the importance of power and strength increases in us all.

A few hours flight from here, in Kyiv, the world order is undergoing a huge upheaval. From the beginning, the State of Israel has taken a measured and responsible approach, which allows us not only to protect our interests, but also to be useful. To be a reliable player, one of the few that can communicate directly with both parties, and assist as required. Indeed, helpquietly, said the prime minister.

On Tuesday morning, he noted, Israel had sent three planes full of humanitarian aid, mostly medicines, to Ukraine. More aid would be sent as needed, he said, adding, We are also preparing to provide humanitarian assistance on the ground and, of course, to facilitate the immigration of Jews, from all relevant places.

Bennett ended his address on a more optimistic note, saying, precisely when it seems that the world is going in worrying directions, the State of Israel is on a straight path and ascending. In every dimension, the last year is a year of leaps and bounds: in economic growth, security, political stability and our determination to unite Israeli society, calm the discourse and find unification and not division. Therein lies our true resilience, there lies our strength. And we will need it.

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Bennett: We Have Reached 'Moment of Truth' on Iran Nuclear Program - Algemeiner

Iran hands in its final package of proposals and says key decisions require political action from Western countries.

Tehran, Iran Iran has said any potential breakthrough in Vienna talks aimed at restoring its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers rests on political decisions by Western nations, after handing in its own final proposals.

Its better for Iran if theres an agreement in Vienna and sanctions are lifted today rather than tomorrow, said Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian in a news conference with his Irish counterpart Simon Coveney in Tehran on Monday.

So we are in a hurry for a good agreement, but it must be within the framework of logical talks and to achieve the rights of the Iranian nation, he added.

The Iranian foreign minister also called on the United States and the European signatories of the nuclear deal to stop playing with text and time of an agreement and display their political will.

Earlier on Monday, Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Irans Supreme National Security Council, said in a tweet that the talks in the Austrian capital have reached a stage where an outcome could be announced, depending on the US position.

Shamkhani also said he held a phone call with Irans chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, on Sunday which reinforced his view that the Iranian team faces a tough challenge in sticking to its agenda, and that Western parties continue to make a show of political will to evade their commitments.

This comes shortly after Wang Qun, Chinas top negotiator, confirmed that Iran has offered its final package of proposals in response to a previous Western package, in what he called the final stage of the talks that began in April 2021.

The eighth round of the talks, which appears likely to be the last, is expected to yield results in the next few weeks as Western parties maintain very limited time is left to save the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Washington unilaterally abandoned the accord in 2018 and imposed harsh sanctions on Iran that remain in place. In response, Iran advanced its nuclear programme and is now using improved centrifuges to enrich uranium up to 60 percent. It has consistently maintained that its nuclear programme is peaceful.

All sides have concurred the talks have progressed in recent weeks. Mikhail Ulyanov, Russias chief negotiator, said in a tweet on Sunday that all assessments were positive following a meeting with US, European, and Chinese representatives without Iran.

Iran still refuses to negotiate directly with the US as long as Washington remains outside the JCPOA.

After a meeting with Amirabdollahian, the Irish foreign minister also met President Ebrahim Raisi.

Coveney was quoted by the Iranian presidents website as saying he understands Irans distrust of the US.

Ireland believes that necessary guarantees need to be given to Iran as part of the current talks so the deal can be restored, he said, in reference to Irans demands for guarantees the US will not renege on the accord again, and a period to verify the lifting of sanctions.

What we emphasise on in these talks is that sanctions need to be lifted in reality and the rights of the Iranian nation must be respected, Raisi told him.

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Iran says outcome of Vienna talks hinges on Western decisions - Al Jazeera English

Marathon talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal have hit a new roadblock, with Iran accusing the US of refusing to make the necessary political decisions to entrench the agreement in international law or to broaden the scope of economic sanctions that would be lifted.

The issue has dogged the talks in Vienna between the west, Russia, Iran and China which have been under way since February from the outset. There is no sign that the eighth round of negotiations, once intended to be the final round, has reached the breakthrough some had been expecting.

Ali Shamkhani, the hardline secretary of Irans national security council, in a tweet issued in multiple languages, declared after speaking to his governments negotiators that progress was becoming more and more difficult.

Expressing his frustration at the delays, he said: The Vienna negotiations had reached a point where the outcome could be described definitively without the need for guesswork.

A US political decision to accept the deal or refrain from accepting the requirements of a credible and lasting agreement based on the principles accepted in the nuclear agreement can replace speculation.

The US, he said, kept proposing new initiatives essentially designed to evade their commitments.

The foreign ministry spokesperson, Saeed Khatibzadeh, at his weekly press conference tried to calm the atmosphere by saying he had spoken to Irans chief negotiator in Vienna, Ali Bagheri, and that he had been assured the position was neither one of flowers and nightingales, nor one of rocks and thorns. But, he added, the onus lay on the US to accept Irans terms.

Asked what guarantees Iran was seeking, Khatibzadeh said: The United States is not trustworthy and therefore objective guarantees must be obtained so that international law and relations are not again mocked by the US government.

He added that all sanctions should be lifted at the UN security council. It does not matter what the title of the sanctions is since they were applied with a false label, Khatibzadeh said.

He stressed that any agreement on the release of political prisoners, including US dual-nationals held in Iranian jails, was discussed only in parallel with the nuclear talks.

Prof Mohammad Marandi, an Iranian analyst in Vienna thought to be close to the government, also claimed the tensions centred on the range of sanctions that would be lifted as part of the deal. Iran is pushing for all sanctions to be lifted, but the US says some sanctions are linked to human rights and terrorists abuses, and are not linked to the nuclear deal.

Mikhail Ulyanov, the Russian ambassador at the talks, adopted a less pessimistic tone. He said the discussions were at a final stage and that significant progress had been made. But he has tended to adopt a more positive outlook, adopting a near role of mediator between the US and Iran, one he has maintained despite tensions over Ukraine. Wang Qun, Chinas ambassador to the UN in Vienna, also broke silence at the weekend to say the talks were at a concluding stage.

The 20-page draft agreement with annexes is largely written, but the outstanding issues show an absolute determination by the Iranian regime to ensure that it appears to emerge from the talks victoriously, having withstood the might of US sanctions.

Joe Biden, distracted by the Ukraine crisis, is already facing mounting political resistance from US Republican senators who insist that the president cannot evade Congress by refusing to put any new agreement to a vote. Democrats have said that if the deal was put to the Senate for approval, they did not think the necessary 60 senators would vote to reject it. The Senate is split 50:50, with vice-president Kamala Harris having the casting vote.

But the Iranian armys recent display of new long-range solid-fuel missiles with a range of 900 miles (1,450km) will hardly make it easier for the US administration to sell the deal.

Iran has also claimed that the US negotiating team with which it does not meet directly is divided on how far to compromise.

The agreement is designed to bring the US, and subsequently Iran, back into the original nuclear deal signed in 2015 from which the US withdrew in 2018.

The talks have been held against a backdrop of repeated warnings from the west stretching back months that the talks can continue only for a few more weeks because Iran is coming ever closer to obtaining irreversibly the material and knowledge required to make a nuclear weapon.

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Iran nuclear deal talks stall as Tehran urges US to accept terms - The Guardian

Liz Truss has said she hopes Britain will soon be in a position to pay the 400m debt overdue to Iran, according to an Iranian account of the phone call between the foreign secretary and her Tehran counterpart, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

UK government officials have been exploring legal ways to pay Britains historical debt, although international economic sanctions on Iran have made it difficult.

The UK Foreign Office did not proactively brief reporters on the call, but when contacted for comment it confirmed that the conversation had happened on Monday, saying: We continue to explore options as a matter of urgency to resolve this case. It said the UK had always been committed to paying the debt.

With talks on the Iran nuclear deal reaching their decisive stage in Vienna, it is possible Truss wanted to stress the upside of both sides reaching a deal. The two countries insist that the 400m debt dating back to the sale of tanks to the shah of Iran in the mid-1970s has always been treated as independent of the Vienna talks and the fate of three British dual nationals held in Evin prison or, in the case of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, denied the right to leave Iran.

The tone of the call, according to the Iranian account, appeared to have been warmer than for some time, with Iran eager to see the UK do more to help with the Afghan refugee crisis on its borders. According to Iran, Truss praised Tehran for housing as many as 2 million refugees. The foreign ministry said: Amir-Abdollahian positively assessed the relations between the two countries.

It may have been significant that the Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, was in Tehran on Monday. He has acted as a conciliator on political prisoner issues in the past.

In the UK parliament last month, Boris Johnson again blamed the threat of sanctions for the block on the payment.

The Vienna talks will mean many of sanctions could be lifted, but it has been argued that the UK has been responsible for its own sanctions laws since Brexit and so could pay the debt now if it is not tied up in a wider negotiation.

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Truss tells Iran she hopes UK will soon be able to repay 400m debt - The Guardian