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Chair,

France, Germany, and the United Kingdom would like to thank Director General Grossifor his report on the implementation of safeguards in Iran, contained in GOV/2021/52, andDeputy Director General Aparo for the Technical Briefing on 18 November.

First, we would like to underscore our grave concern by the information in the DirectorGenerals report that IAEA inspectors operating in Iran have, for several months, beensubjected to intimidation through excessively invasive physical searches. This is unacceptableand unprecedented. We express our full support for IAEA inspectors who carry out their roleswith impartiality, professionalism, and dedication and must be able to undertake their dutieswithout fear of intimidation. As the Director General noted, Irans new security proceduresare inconsistent with both internationally accepted security practices and the Agreement onthe Privileges and Immunities of the IAEA, and prevent IAEA inspectors from being able toeffectively discharge their functions under the NPT Safeguards Agreement. Like all NPT stateparties, Iran is legally obliged to take the necessary steps to ensure that Agency inspectors caneffectively discharge their functions. We call on Iran to take immediate steps to prevent anyfurther incidents from occurring, and encourage the Director General to promptly report anynew incidents to this Board. We fully associate ourselves with the statement by Canada, to bedelivered later, on behalf of a group of states.

Chair,

We would like to commend the efforts of the Director General and the Secretariat inverifying Irans compliance with its safeguards obligations and commitments. We firmlysupport their professional and impartial efforts to fully clarify information concerning thecorrectness and completeness of Irans declarations under its NPT Safeguards Agreement. Wereiterate the importance of the IAEA continuing to evaluate all safeguards-relevantinformation available to it in line with standard practice.

We fully support the Director Generals tireless efforts to engage in substantialdiscussions with Iran in order to resolve issues related to four undeclared locations in Iran. Ithas now been over two years since these efforts commenced, and seventeen months sincethe Board adopted a resolution calling on Iran to fully co-operate with the Agency and satisfy its requests without any further delay. Yet Iran has still failed to provide the necessaryexplanation for the presence of anthropogenic nuclear material particles related to threelocations, as well as the current location of natural uranium in the form of a metal disc.

In the absence of a credible explanation from Iran, we share the deep concerns of theDirector General that undeclared nuclear material and/or equipment has been present atundeclared locations in Iran and its current location is not known to the Agency. As we haverepeatedly stated, this is not just a question of Irans past activities but a live issue concerningthe completeness and correctness of Irans safeguards declarations today.

The Director Generals report also noted Irans sustained lack of substantiveengagement with the Agency since September, with no interactions at all on two of theoutstanding cases and no meaningful progress in resolving the remaining issues. We recallthat in Irans Joint Statement with the Agency of 12 September, Iran committed to enablingthe Director General to hold high-level consultations in Tehran on enhancing co-operation.Yet Iran delayed for over two months in scheduling this visit until the very eve of the Board,which has undermined the Director Generals ability to provide full and timely reporting to theBoard.

Chair,

The Director General updated the Board on 24 November that, despite his efforts, hehad been unable to reach an agreement with Iran to address the issues raised in this reportwhich Iran has now had over two years to resolve and also the issue relevant to the JCPOAcovered during his visit. The Director General asked for the Boards continued support in hisefforts to engage with Iran. Iran now needs to fully co-operate and actively engage with theAgency without further delay. Should rapid and tangible progress not be forthcoming, ameeting of a special board to take action will very soon become inevitable.

Finally, we echo the Director Generals call on Iran to fulfill all its legal obligations underthe Subsidiary Arrangements to its NPT Safeguards Agreement, including fully implementingModified Code 3.1. We reiterate that implementation of Modified Code 3.1 cannot bemodified or suspended unilaterally. In refusing to fully co-operate with the IAEA, Iranundermines the integrity of the global safeguards system.

We encourage the Director General to continue reporting to the Board of Governors,as appropriate, and would welcome making report GOV/2021/52 public.

Thank you.

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NPT Safeguards Agreement with Iran: E3 statement to the IAEA, November 2021 - GOV.UK

First, there was the Emirati Embassy in Damascus that reopened in 2018, then a few high-profile Arab delegations met with Syrian diplomats and politicians abroad, and soon normalization between the Arab world and Bashar Assad became the hottest thing in regional politics. Everyone, from Jordans King Abdullah II to Egyptian and Saudi generals, was busy crafting a new path on Syria in order to bring it back into the Arab fold.

Back in 2019, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, the UAEs foreign minister, said his country intends to ensure that Syria returns to the Arab region, while Russia, Assads main backer, called on the Arab League to reinstate Syrias membership that was revoked back in 2011.

5

Flags of Syria, Russia, and Iran in Syria

(Photo: AP)

Off record, Arab officials explain that by normalizing relations with Assads Syria and helping it restore stability through economic development and postwar revival, they will also promote another important goal squeezing Iran out of Syria, or at least minimizing its role there.

The U.S. did not prevent a rapprochement between Jordan and Syria, yet it harshly criticized the recent meeting between Abdullah bin Zayed and Assad, whose regime is heavily sanctioned by both the U.S. and EU.

Israel, however, took a more nuanced position, quietly hoping that Arab influence would replace the Iranian one. One has to wonder: Is there a real chance to squeeze Iran out of Syria by normalizing Assad and pouring Arab investments into Syrias devastated land?

Dr. Raz Zimmt, an expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University, expects no reduction in Iranian influence in Syria for the foreseeable future.

5

Iranian Cargo plane in Damascus, Syria

It is worth distinguishing between the Iranian influence on the military level, and the soft Iranian influence on the political, economic, religious, and cultural levels, said Zimmt. In terms of military influence, however, Iran has greatly reduced the presence of Revolutionary Guards in Syria in recent years due to the change in operational circumstances (as there is no need for a large presence of Revolutionary Guards) and is increasingly relying on local Syrian personnel recruited by pro-Iranian militias aided by Hezbollah and the militia.

The Syrian regime is currently unable to retain control of the territories liberated in recent years without Iranian military involvement, which is therefore not expected to shrink. At the same time, Iran is working to preserve and even strengthen its political, economic, cultural, and religious influence, he continued.

Although Syria (with Russian support) seems to prefer Russian or Turkish involvement in its economic rehabilitation, this does not stop Iranian efforts to integrate into reconstruction efforts in Syria and at the same time act to strengthen its religious-cultural influence, especially in Shiite-populated areas, Zimmt said.

5

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad

(Photo: AP, Reuters, EPA)

Since 2013, Tehran has significantly tightened its grip on Syrias civilian and economic affairs, according to a report from the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, so that it would be impossible to sideline or push Iran out altogether. In 2019, Tehran announced that it would build a railway network from western Iran to Syrias Mediterranean port of Latakia, while Iranian companies have seized a share in Damascus property market and its businessmen have become influential figures in Syrian real estate.

In addition, during the last few years, important demographic changes have taken place in Syrian towns and villages that were abandoned by refugees who had to flee for their lives; newcomers all Shiites from Iran, Afghanistan, or Pakistan, replaced them.

How do Iranians feel about the news of Sunni Arab efforts to normalize relations with Syria that are meant to minimize Iranians influence and power in the country?

There are two perceptions in Iran on this issue, says Zimmt. One view holds that Arab efforts to get closer to Assad are intended to weaken Iranian influence in the country and promote Arab (and especially Gulf) influence at Irans expense.

Yet, there is also an assumption that the normalization between Syria and some Arab countries is a positive expression of the Arab worlds recognition that Iran has won the battle in Syria and that the Arabs must come to terms with the Syrian regime. It is worth noting that this process is taking place in parallel with the ongoing rapprochement between the United Arab Emirates and Iran in the past two years and the Iraqi-mediated talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia, he adds.

5

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

(Photo: AFP)

According to his school of thought, at this stage, there is no particular concern on the part of Tehran regarding this process and it does not currently identify a real threat to Iranian interests in Syria.

As long as this is Irans assessment, it is not likely to try to sabotage efforts by the Arab world to approach the Syrian regime and it will continue to present them publicly as proof that the Arab world, which previously supported the Syrian opposition, has been forced to recognize the new reality shaped by Iranian influence and assistance, Zimmt says.

Russia has also expressed support for Arab normalization efforts vis-a-vis Damascus. According to Marianna Belenkaya an expert on Arab affairs and a journalist at the Kommersant newspaper and publishing house Moscow has encouraged the reinstatement of Arab ties with Syria and its readmission to the Arab League for quite a long time, as it believes this will best serve Russian interests in the country.

Along with the political aspect of normalization, there is also an economic angle. Russia needs the Gulf money for Syrias reconstruction, Belenkaya said.

5

Iranian soldiers

(Photo: gettyimages)

Will this move allow Iran to be pushed aside? she asks rhetorically. Iran is engrained in the Syrian soil both militarily and economically, and its hard to believe that it can be squeezed or pushed out, she says.

Theoretically Russia would be happy to diminish Irans power, and its common knowledge in Moscow that Iran stands in the way of quite a few issues in Syria, for example, political reconciliation, and provokes Damascus to act in a more aggressive way, for instance in the Daraa region. At the same time, Russia is very realistic. It believes that Iran cannot be pushed out militarily, but its power can be diminished if there will be an alternative, Belenkaya says.

The experts agree Arab rapprochement will be gradual, and that it will take time to achieve an Arab consensus. (For now, Qatar has voiced vocal opposition to the move.) Its also unclear what price Damascus would need to pay to regain Sunni Arabs favor and whether it will be willing to actually pay.

As for Israel, for now, its policy on preventing Iranian encroachment in Syria will remain unchanged.

Read more:
Can the Arab countries squeeze Iran out of Syria? - Ynetnews

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Morning news brief: US threatens Iran, Cummins named Test captain and more - WION

After months of uncertainty and growing concerns from the West, Iran announced in early November that negotiations over reviving the 2015 nuclear deal would resume, with a first meeting scheduled in Vienna on November 29. For the moment, the pressure has come down a notch, but the outlook for success is bleak. Irans demand that the United States remove all sanctions imposed since U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018, and its insistence that the United States provide a guarantee that a future president wont leave the deal again go well beyond the terms of the original agreement. In addition, Irans nuclear advances mean that a return to the deal is now less attractive for the United States, because Iran has gained important knowledge that cannot be easily wiped away. Under these conditions, a deal will be hard to reach. But the Biden administration needs to try, because a nuclear-armed Iran would make the world a far more dangerous place.

That, at least, is what most observers believe. Ray Takeyh disagrees. In The Bomb Will Backfire on Iran (October 18, 2021), he presents a far more sanguine view. Going nuclear, he argues, would cost the Iranian regime a great deal and fail to yield any strategic benefit. This will eventually become apparent to the people of Iran, who will then rise up against the regime, Takeyh predicts. And so, in his view, the nuclear gambit will backfire: in the end, he writes, the most consequential victim of an Iranian bomb will be the theocracy itself.

But these claims dont hold up to scrutiny. They ignore important evidence, rest on a set of questionable assumptions, and fail to take into account the lessons offered by looking at the experiences of other nuclear-armed states. In reality, an Iranian bomb isnt inevitable, and the global pressure campaign Takeyh expects to emerge in the aftermath of an Iranian nuclear test wont materialize. A nuclear Iran would pose serious challenges to the United States, and Takeyhs suggestion that such a scenario would present an opportunity to bring about regime change is risky and unwise. The better option remains trying to prevent the emergence of an Iranian bomb in the first place.

Takeyh argues that Iran has already decided to produce nuclear weapons and that it will inevitably do so. According to him, neither diplomacy nor covert action nor the threat of military force has done much to slow Irans march toward the bomb, much less stop it. Irans suspicions of the United States and its ambitions for regional dominance mean that it cannot simply stop at the threshold of acquiring the bomb. It has to go all the way.

It is impossible to rule out that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Irans supreme leader, already has his heart set on building the bomb. But instead of trying to perform the impossible task of peering into the minds of Irans leaders, it is better to examine the available evidence. And here, information suggests that Iran has not resolved to produce nuclear weapons. Instead, Tehran wants the ability to build weapons in the future in case it decides it needs themwhat is known in nuclear parlance as a hedging strategy.

Since 2007, U.S. intelligence has repeatedly indicated that Iran wants a bomb optionnot the bomb itself. As then Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testified to Congress in 2012, Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons, in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so. Moreover, the U.S. intelligence community has said that any future Iranian decision about whether to build nuclear weapons will be based on a cost-benefit approach. In other words, contrary to Takeyhs assertion, Irans decision to weaponize is not a foregone conclusion. Indeed, Irans willingness to implement the 2015 deal it reached with the United States and other world powerswhich drastically reduced Tehrans nuclear program and its ability to quickly develop a bombis good evidence that Iran is not as committed to acquiring nuclear weapons as Takeyh suggests.

Irans leaders would need to be quite desperate to risk it all for a single nuclear weapon.

Despite its withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, even the Trump administration had to concede that Iran wasnt actively working to build weapons but was instead holding on to key documents and personnel to preserve technical expertise relevant to a nuclear weapons capability, and potentially to aid in any future effort to pursue nuclear weapons again, if a decision were made to do so. Israelwhich is laser focused on the Iranian nuclear threatapparently agrees. To the best of our knowledge, the directive [on whether to produce nuclear weapons] has not changed, a senior Israeli intelligence official said last month. They are not heading toward a bomb right now.

Intentions can change, of course. But how easy would it be for Iran to build a bomb if it decided to do so? Takeyh argues that Iran could quickly produce enough material for a device. He is certainly right about that. But he ignores the reality that unless Iran has built covert facilitiesand theres no evidence that it hasIran would be trying to break out at a site that is monitored by international inspectors, posing a high risk of detection and intervention. Kicking out international inspectors would prevent them from reporting on Irans activities but would itself be a major red flag and would signal that Iran was making a dash to the bomb. The international community might not have much time to act. But Irans margin of error would similarly be slim. Irans leaders would need to be quite desperate to risk it all for a single nuclear weapon.

Even if Iran succeeded in producing enough nuclear material, it would still have to package that material with other components into a nuclear device and potentially load it on to a missile. Takeyh ignores these steps of the process, on which Iran apparently hasnt made any progress for over a decade and which are vulnerable to detection. As the head of Israeli military intelligence said in October, there has been no progress . . . in the weapons project and that even from the moment you have a breakout, there is still a long way to go before a bomb, perhaps as much as two years. The fact that Iran hasnt made these preparations suggests that a move to nuclear weapons isnt in the offing.

But the international communitys ability to disrupt an Iranian sprint for the bomb doesnt matter if, as Takeyh argues, neither the United States nor Israel has the will to stop it. As much as these two countries focus on the Iranian nuclear program, strategic surprise is still possible. Still, it is incredibly difficult to imagine a scenario in which either the United States or Israel knowingly allows Iran to cross the nuclear threshold. Israel has ramped up training for a military strike on Irans nuclear sites. For decades, every U.S. president has pledged not to allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, and President Joe Biden recently stated that if diplomacy fails, the United States will turn to other options. A military strike to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons may be one of the few remaining foreign policy decisions that would have the support of a majority of Democrats and Republicans in Congress. Launching one would be a far easier decision than allowing Iran to cross the nuclear Rubicon.

In Takeyhs hypothetical scenario, a nuclear Iran would prompt a U.S.-led global backlash that would cut the Iranian regime off from the global economy and deny it the benefits of nuclear weapons. Realizing this, the Iranian public would become disillusioned and ultimately overthrow the regime; a new, pro-U.S. leadership would emerge in its place and dismantle Irans nuclear weapons.

In reality, things would probably play out much differently. First, a global pressure campaign against Iran would be unlikely to emerge. There would especially be little support for sanctions whose true goal was regime changea policy even most U.S. allies would reject. Although an Iranian nuclear test would be condemned across the globe and lead to a temporary spike in support for new penalties against Tehran, enthusiasm would wane in the subsequent months and years. China and Russiawhich seek to check U.S. ambitions, sell Iran military equipment, and (in Chinas case) buy Iranian oilwould likely defy any push to isolate Iran. Despite the best efforts of the United States, the result would be a leaky sanctions regime that would get leakier over time.

Takeyh is right that North Koreawhich challenges his argument because it has managed to hold on to power and its nuclear weapons despite massive pressureisnt the right comparison, because its isolation is in part by design. North Korea is also the clear historical outlier: international pressure against proliferators tends to gradually lessen once they cross the nuclear threshold. A better comparison therefore would be to the international response to Indias and Pakistans nuclear weapons tests in 1998, which triggered a public outcry and U.S. congressional sanctions. Those sanctions were gradually eased, and the international community had little appetite for imposing high economic costs given the low likelihood that New Delhi and Islamabad would disarm. Irans connection to the global economy creates vulnerabilities, but it also means that trying to squeeze the country to the point of collapse would not work.

The theory that a nuclear-armed Iran would stand idle as the United States tries to suffocate it is not one worth testing.

Although Takeyh acknowledges that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose significant challenges to the United States, he tends to assume that addressing these issues would be relatively easy and straightforward because, as he puts it, they would prompt a much-needed reset of U.S. policy that refocuses its attention on Iran and the region. In reality, the United States would face tough choices about its commitments to allies and how to balance those requirements against other significantand probably more importantsecurity threats from China and Russia. Takeyhs recommendation that Washington deploy nuclear weapons to the Gulf states is a case in point. It is questionable whether Congress or the American people would support such a move. It also probably isnt necessary given that the United States can already target Iran with nuclear weapons from halfway across the globe. And placing U.S. nuclear weapons on Irans borders could actually increase the risks that Tehran would use a nuclear weapon in a crisis because the regime might feel pressured to use them or lose them.

This leads to perhaps the most dangerous flaw in Takeyhs argument: trying to destabilize and induce the overthrow of an unsavory regime armed with nuclear weapons is flirting with disaster. The United States worries about and usually seeks to avoid political instability in nuclear states precisely because of the risk of theft, loss, or the unintended use of nuclear weapons. The theory that a nuclear-armed Iran would stand idle as the United States tries to suffocate it is not one worth testing.

Moreover, it is also unclear why the Iranian public would revolt against the attainment of a nuclear weapons capability. Even though polls show that most Iranians are opposed to weaponization today, support would probably shift following a test that many would view as a major achievement and a source of national pride. Those same polls consistently show that Iranians support their countrys nuclear program, even though it has come at a significant cost. And even if the regime were to collapse, Takeyh is too confident that it would be replaced by a pro-American leadership willing to dismantle Irans nuclear arsenal. A more hard-line faction could take controlor a set of leaders friendlier to the United States and its allies may still see value in holding on to nuclear weapons to burnish their credentials at home or to use as a bargaining chip. Trying to base an entire policy around predicting the outcome of a revolution seems misguided.

Rather than resigning itself to the inevitability of an Iranian bomb, the United States should instead focus on preventing Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold. The best way of doing that remains reaching a deal with Iran that rolls back its nuclear program under close international monitoring in exchange for sanctions relief. That is harder today given the Trump administrations withdrawal from the 2015 deal and Irans subsequent nuclear progress. But history suggests two reasons for optimism: Iran is not committed to the bomb, and its decisions on its nuclear program can be influenced. The task for Washington is to convince Iran that its interests are better served by reaching a deal than by escalating its nuclear program. To do that, the United States should keep the military option in its back pocket, stay open to a diplomatic solution, and remain flexible on alternatives to the imperiled nuclear agreement.

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A Nuclear Iran Is Not Inevitable: Why the World Cannot Give Up on Diplomacy - Foreign Affairs Magazine

Iran requires a commitment that the US will not again leave the nuclear deal signed with world powers in 2015, the countrys new chief negotiator and deputy foreign minister has told the Guardian.

Ali Bagheri Kani also said that talks in Vienna between Iran and other signatories had failed to reach agreement on a means of verifying that US sanctions had both been lifted and had a practical impact on trade with Iran.

We need verification, and this remains unresolved. It is one of the issues that remains not finalised. It is not enough for the ink to be put on the agreement, he said. Bagheri Kani did not rule out an independent body being responsible for verification.

The Vienna talks are due to recommence at the end of the month after being suspended by Iran, after the June election of a new hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi. Bagheri Kani is touring European capitals to set out the Iranian negotiating position.

Iran has said it will not take its own steps back into full compliance with the deal until verification of US actions has been secured. Iran has been increasing its uranium stockpile and use of advanced centrifuges beyond the limits set in the deal. It has limited the access of the UN nuclear inspectorate.

Defending his demand that the US give a guarantee that it will comply with the agreement, Bagheri Kani said: This is about an agreement not a policy. If there is a peace agreement between two states, it has the effect of a treaty. This is international law. It is not intended that domestic laws of the US can prevail over an international agreement. That is against international law.

He added he wanted European powers to give their own guarantees that they will trade with Iran, regardless of the US position, possibly by using a blocking statute nullifying the effect of US sanctions on European firms that trade with Iran.

Bagheri Kani denied that Iran had been stalling on the talks resumption in an effort to develop its own nuclear program, saying it was natural for a new government to take time to prepare its negotiating position and to hold bilateral talks with the other parties.

The minister repeated calls for all US sanctions linked to the nuclear deal to be lifted. Iran views sanctions that the US says were imposed for Iranian acts of terrorism or human rights abuses as linked to the nuclear deal, and therefore requiring lifting.

He also ruled out discussions on Irans missile and security program being included in the agreement. He said: the JCPOA has a clear framework and other issues are not relevant. We are not going to negotiate on our defence capabilities or our security.

He added: Irans relations with other countries did not need a guardian.

He denied his negotiating stance was so tough that it would be impossible to reach an agreement in Vienna. We are just saying that in accordance with the JCPOA the sanctions should be lifted. We did a deal, and our view is that it should be implemented.

Asked if he was requiring the Vienna talks to go back to the start, he said: What is important is not from where we started, but what is important is that we achieve a deal that has practical results for the parties. Our main objective is to remove the illegal sanctions that they have imposed on the Iranian nation in breach of UN resolutions. Any sanctions in breach of the JCPOA imposed by President Obama and President Trump have to be lifted. That is the agreement set out the JCPOA.

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Irans negotiator wants guarantee US will not leave renewed nuclear deal - The Guardian