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They say time changes things, but actually you have to change them yourself, said Andy Warhol.

The pop artists famous paintings of Campbells soup cans and Coca-Cola bottles were actually criticized for their celebration of conformity, but his insight about change, whether cultural, social or political, sure was right: It never comes by itself.

That certainly goes for revolutionary Iran, where everyone except its oligarchy has been awaiting change for the past 42 years in vain.

Now, as its seventh president prepares to succeed the sixth, the questions are what Iranian voters just said, where their country is headed, and what the Jewish state should do. And the answers are that the people are bitter, their country is in the doldrums, and Israel should let it change by itself.

Yes, non-Islamist candidates could never even dream of being allowed to run, nor could anyone otherwise disagreeable to the regime, and also the entire female population.

Even so, the regime used to try to create an impression of democracy by choreographing presidential contests between hardliners and pragmatists. That is how Mohammad Khatami became president back in 1997, while advocating free speech, market reforms and a cultural thaw with the West.

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That gospel was crushed in 2009, when the regime robbed reformist candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi of his electoral victory and placed him under house arrest, where he continues to languish.

Still, the democratic masquerade continued. When Hassan Rouhani ran in 2013, he faced seven opponents, including a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards and a former commander of the air force.

Now even that veneer was shed. The clerics had one candidate and pushed aside anyone who might threaten his victory, even the notorious Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, for whom they stole the 2009 election.

RAISI IS no version of Hassan Rouhani or Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who earned academic degrees in Britain and the US, or of Mohammad Khatami, who lived in Germany and speaks four languages. Raisi, by contrast, is not known to have even finished high school.

What is not unknown is Raisis record as a prosecutor, which is harrowing. As a member of the forum that in 1988 sent to the gallows an estimated 5,000 untried prisoners, he is a slaughterer of his own people. (See Amnesty International, Blood-soaked secrets: Why Irans 1988 Prison Massacres are Ongoing Crimes Against Humanity, 2018.)

A regime that imposes on the citizens a man who mass-murdered innocent citizens says it is scared. And the regime is scared with good reason.

With the population more than double its size when the Islamists took over; with industry held hostage by the Revolutionary Guards, whose chieftains win tenders unfairly and then prize cronies and sideline professionals; with negligent planning resulting in dried lakes, rivers and faucets; and with the government fearful of corporate freedom and monetary discipline, the steadily shrinking economy is an inversion of the shahs era, when jobs were abundant and annual growth rates exceeded 10%.

On the eve of the coronavirus pandemic, unemployment in greater Tehran reportedly reached 41%. In some regions, youth joblessness has been higher than 60%, and university-educated womens unemployment exceeded 80%. The dollar, which in Khatamis time cost less than 9,000 rials, now costs more than 230,000.

The pandemic further debilitated the country, having plagued according to statistical Website Worldometer at least 3.11 million and killed at least 83,000.

Is it any wonder, then, that more than half the public didnt bother voting? Life stinks, they effectively said, and the unelected clerics who run the show now want to hand the wheel over to the murderer of our kith and kin. How much lower can we sink?

That, in brief, is where Irans political degeneration has arrived. Now, as its most violent leader since Ayatollah Khomeini approaches its helm, some might feel circumstances demand an extravagant Israeli attack on Iran. Nothing could be more wrong.

THE IRANIAN peoples abuse can only last so long. Ultimately, the people will respond.

Waiting for that days arrival demands much patience and poise, but that is what we must muster. Millions throughout Iran know the truth. They know Israel has never been their enemy and has taken nothing from them. Many of them also know that the Jewish nation actually recalls fondly the Persian Empire that restored Jerusalems leveled temple and returned the Land of Israel to the Jews.

Millions of Iranians also know that until the Islamist takeover, Israeli-Iranian trade was brisk, and that it will resume in earnest the day the fundamentalists will be removed.

And yes, Israelis know Irans nuclear program is intolerable and that sabotaging it is imperative. Even so, this should be done in a way that will not make average Iranians feel that Israel humiliated them.

Israel should initiate and also preempt, but only tactically; derail whatever it is the mullahs are plotting about us, bomb their Syrian outposts, sting their nuclear operation, but avoid the grand attack.

That attack should come not from without, but from within, and not from the air, but from below, and it should be waged not by foreigners, but by the great Persian people whom the ayatollahs have so thoroughly disempowered, dispossessed and dishonored, and now so justly fear.

Amotz Asa-Els bestselling Mitzad Haivelet Hayehudi (The Jewish March of Folly, Yediot Sefarim, 2019) is a revisionist history of the Jewish peoples leadership from antiquity to modernity.

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Israeli attacks must not humiliate Iranian people ...

Irans newly chosen president, in his first news conference, on Monday rejected the United States push for a broader deal with the Islamic Republic that would restrict its ballistic missiles program and curb its regional military policies in addition to containing its nuclear program.

President-elect Ebrahim Raisi, a conservative cleric, said that Irans ballistic missiles and its regional policies were nonnegotiable and that he would not meet with President Biden. He called on the United States to comply with a 2015 accord in which Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program in return for the lifting of economic sanctions against it.

My serious recommendation to the U.S. government is to immediately return to their commitments, lift all the sanctions and show that they have good will, he said in a briefing with domestic and international reporters in Tehran.

Regional issues and missiles are not negotiable, he said, adding that the United States had not carried through on matters it had negotiated, agreed and committed to.

The comments appeared to signal a hardening of Iranian policies as the conservative faction takes control of all branches of the government: Parliament, the judiciary and soon, the presidency.

Mr. Raisi, who takes office in August, said his administrations policies would be revolutionary and anti-corruption.

While Iran has always insisted that its military capabilities are not up for discussion, the current president, Hassan Rouhani, who is considered moderate, has said he would be willing to meet anyone if it benefited his country. He also said broader negotiations with the United States could be possible under the umbrella of the nuclear deal once the Americans returned to the 2015 accord, which was abandoned in 2018 by President Donald J. Trump, who called it too weak. The Trump administration then imposed some 1,600 sanctions on Iran.

The United States and Iran are holding talks through intermediaries in Vienna about reviving that 2015 agreement. American and Iranian officials familiar with the talks said that an agreement had been drafted and that a deal could be possible in the six weeks that remain before Mr. Raisi takes office.

Mr. Raisis government would benefit from an economic boost if it begins its term with sanctions eased by a renewed deal, as well as access to billions of dollars of frozen funds. Improving the economy and peoples livelihoods was one of Mr. Raisis main campaign pledges.

Mr. Biden has promised to seek a return to the deal, which would remove key sanctions, including those dealing with oil, banking transfers, shipping and insurance, though penalties on conglomerates, charities and individuals accused of human rights violations would remain.

Mr. Raisis pledge to refuse to negotiate on missile and militia issues, which fell outside the 2015 nuclear agreement, was not a surprise, analysts said. It echoed positions he took as a candidate and was in keeping with the views of the countrys supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a hard-liner who sets Irans key policies.

It was quite expected he knows more about what he is not going to do than what he is going to do in terms of any specific plans in foreign policy, said Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. He was just repeating the general positions of the Islamic Republic.

On whether he would meet Mr. Biden, the Iranian president-elect had a one-word answer: No.

Mr. Azizi attributed the striking firmness with which Mr. Raisi rejected the possibility of such a meeting to his lack of a background in diplomacy.

Mr. Raisi, who has been the head of the judiciary for the past 18 months, has no experience in politics or governing. He has spent his career in the legal system as a prosecutor, a judge and the head of the judiciary, with a brief stint as the leader of a powerful and wealthy religious conglomerate.

The tone was not diplomatic, and this is something we are going to see more during his presidency because he has no experience in diplomacy, Mr. Azizi said.

Talal Atrissi, a sociologist at the Lebanese University in Beirut who studies Iran and its regional allies, said Mr. Raisis victory was a blow to reformists and would strengthen Irans ties with its regional militia allies, known as the axis of resistance. These include Hezbollah in Lebanon, various militias in Syria and Iraq, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who receive support from Iran and share its anti-Israeli and anti-American stances.

Raisi will stay committed to the axis of resistance, Mr. Atrissi said.

On Monday, Mr. Raisi also declared that Mr. Trumps so-called maximum pressure campaign against Iran had failed.

The president-elect did say that a negotiating team would continue indirect talks in Vienna until his administration took its place. Mr. Raisi said that he supported discussions that secured Irans national interests, but that we will not allow talks for the sake of talks.

He addressed accusations by international rights groups that he has had a dismal record of human rights violations during his time with the judiciary, including involvement in the mass execution of opponents of the government in 1988. That record has brought him sanctions from the United States.

Mr. Raisi said those who are accusing him must answer for their own violations of human rights and called himself a defender of human rights and of peoples security and comfort.

Narges Mohammadi, a prominent human rights activist who was sentenced to 16 years in prison for her campaign to abolish Irans death penalty, reacted to Mr. Raisis comments on her Instagram page. I cannot accept Mr. Raisis presidency as one of the most serious violators of human rights in 42 years, she said,

Mr. Raisi said that he would prioritize improving relations with neighboring countries, and that Iran was willing to restore diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia, which collapsed in 2016 after Iranians protesting the kingdoms execution of a prominent Shiite cleric stormed Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran. Iran and Saudi Arabia have been quietly negotiating to restore diplomatic relations.

Mr. Raisi will preside over a government that was elected with a minority of votes in an election process largely viewed as engineered to ensure his win, and over a restive and frustrated population that is seen as capable of exploding into street unrest with the smallest trigger.

Opposition to the result of local City Council election results led to clashes in several provinces on Sunday and Monday. In the city of Yasouj, security forces on motorbikes and on foot beat the crowds with batons and fired gunshots, videos posted on social media showed. In the city of Karoun, protesters gathered outside government buildings shouting that the vote counts were rigged.

Political figures from a reformist faction that is regrouping pointed to the low voter turnout as indicative of Iranians discontent. Former President Mohammad Khatami issued a statement saying he bows his head to all those who did not vote.

The unprecedented lack of voter participation above 50 percent is a sign of people being disillusioned and hopeless, he said. The gap between the people and the governing system should serve as a dangerous warning call to all.

Hwaida Saad contributed reporting.

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Irans Incoming President Vows Tough Line on Missiles and Militias - The New York Times

Saudi foreign minister says he was very concerned about unanswered questions on Irans nuclear programme.

Saudi Arabia will judge Iranian President-elect Ebrahim Raisis government by the reality on the ground, the kingdoms foreign minister has said, adding that Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say on foreign policy.

Raisi, a hardline judge who secured an expected election victory on Saturday, said on Monday he wanted to improve ties with Gulf Arab neighbours while calling on regional rival Saudi Arabia to immediately halt its intervention in Yemen.

After six years of war, a military coalition led by Riyadh has failed to defeat the Houthi movement in Yemen. Tens of thousands have been killed in the war, which has caused what the UN has described as the worlds worst humanitarian crisis.

Saudi Arabia also opposes the Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), that Tehran and Washington are trying to revive in indirect talks.

The accord between Iran and world powers, which lifted sanctions on Tehran in return for curbs on its nuclear programme, has been in tatters since the US unilaterally withdrew in 2018 under former President Donald Trump. Since the US pulled out and reimposed harsh sanctions, Iran has gradually lessened its own compliance with the deal.

From our perspective, foreign policy in Iran is in any case run by the supreme leader and therefore we base our interactions and our approach to Iran on the reality on the ground, and that is what we will judge the new government on, regardless of who is in charge, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud told a news conference in Vienna on Tuesday.

He said he was very concerned about unanswered questions on Irans nuclear programme, an apparent reference to the UN nuclear watchdog seeking explanations on the origin of uranium particles found at undeclared sites in Iran.

The current agreement between Iran and the UNs International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is set to expire on June 24.

A new interim agreement under which the IAEA is allowed access to Iranian nuclear sites has yet to be announced.

I think its important that even though the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] discussions are ongoing, that these outstanding issues be addressed and be addressed seriously and that we hold Iran accountable for its activities, and hold it to its commitments under the non-proliferation treaty and its commitments to the IAEA, Prince Faisal said.

Saudi Arabia and Gulf allies continue to pressure Iran over its nuclear programme, which Tehran says is entirely peaceful, and its ballistic missile programme. US intelligence agencies and the IAEA believe Iran had a secret, coordinated nuclear weapons programme that it halted in 2003.

In a bid to contain tensions between them, Saudi Arabia and Iran began direct talks in April in the Iraqi capital Baghdad to address several points of contention.

Ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia were cut in 2016 after Iranian protesters attacked Saudi diplomatic missions following the kingdoms execution of a revered Muslim Shia scholar.

The Saudi embassy in Iran shut down in 2016 as relations deteriorated.

Raisi said on Monday that Iran would have no problem with a possible reopening of the Saudi embassy in Tehran and that the restoration of relations faces no barrier.

There are no obstacles from Irans side to re-opening embassies there are no obstacles to ties with Saudi Arabia, he said.

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Saudi Arabia to judge Irans Raisi by reality on the ground - Al Jazeera English

Cranes at an oil industry support facility in Port Fourchon, Louisiana, U.S., on Wednesday, April 21, 2021.

Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with Brent gaining for a fourth consecutive session, as the prospect of extra supply coming to the market soon from Iran faded with talks dragging on over the United States rejoining a nuclear agreement with Tehran.

Brent crude was up by 61 cents, or 0.8%, at $73.47 per barrel, having risen 0.2% on Monday. U.S. oil gained 55 cents, or 0.8%, to $71.43 a barrel, having slipped 3 cents in the previous session.

Indirect discussions between the United States and Iran, along with other parties to the 2015 deal on Tehran's nuclear program, resumed on Saturday in Vienna and were described as "intense" by the European Union.

A U.S. return to the deal would pave the way for the lifting of sanctions on Iran that would allow the OPEC member to resume exports of crude.

It is "looking increasingly unlikely that we will see the U.S. rejoin the Iranian nuclear deal before the Iranian Presidential Elections later this week," ING Economics said in a note.

Other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) along with major producers including Russia a group known as OPEC+ have been withholding output to support prices amid the pandemic.

"Additional supply from OPEC+ will be needed over the second half of this year, with demand expected to continue its recovery," ING said.

To meet rising demand, U.S. drillers are also increasing output.

U.S. crude production from seven major shale formations is forecast to rise by about 38,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July to around 7.8 million bpd, the highest since November, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly outlook.

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Oil rises as threat of immediate Iran supply recedes - CNBC

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, resigned to the revival of a nuclear pact with Iran they always opposed, are engaging with Tehran to contain tensions while lobbying for future talks to take their security concerns into account.

World powers have been negotiating in Vienna with Iran and the United States to revive the 2015 deal, under which Tehran agreed to curbs on its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of international sanctions.

The new U.S. administration of President Joe Biden wants to restore the deal, which Washington abandoned under his predecessor, Donald Trump. But Washington's Gulf allies have always said the deal was inadequate because it ignored other issues, such as Iran's missile exports and support for regional proxy fighters.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made clear on Monday that Washington's priority was to get the deal "back in the box" and then use it as a platform to address other questions.

But with Saudi Arabia embroiled in a costly war in Yemen and facing repeated missile and drone attacks on its oil infrastructure which it blames on Iran and its allies, the Gulf States say the wider issues must not be set aside.

"The Gulf countries have said 'fine the U.S. can go back to (the nuclear deal), this is their decision we cannot change it, but...we need everybody to take into account regional security concerns'," Gulf Research Center's Abdulaziz Sager, who has been active in past unofficial Saudi-Iran dialogue, said this week.

Gulf officials worry that they lack the same clout with the Biden administration that they had under Trump. They lobbied to join the Vienna talks, but were rebuffed.

Rather than wait for the outcome in Vienna, Riyadh accepted Iraqi overtures in April to host talks between Saudi and Iranian officials, two sources familiar with the matter said.

"WE NEED TO LIVE WITH THEM"

As the foes suss each other out, Riyadh has said it wants to see verifiable deeds.

Iran holds a number of cards, not least its support for the Houthi movement in Yemen, which the Saudis have failed to defeat after six years of war that exhausted Washington's patience.

"Yemen is a cheap course for Iran and a very expensive one for Saudi Arabia. This gives Iran a strong bargaining position," Sager said.

The UAE, for its part, has already been in regular contact with Iran trying to de-escalate, notably since tankers were attacked off its coast in 2019, a third regional source said.

The priority now for Gulf states is to focus on their economies following COVID-19. But security assurances are an important part of that recovery.

"A (nuclear) deal is better than no deal, but how can you convince the world -- and investors -- that this is a real deal that can stand the test of time?" the third source told Reuters.

Gulf states hope Washington maintains leverage over Tehran by keeping some sanctions, including those designed to punish foreign actors for supporting terrorism or weapons proliferation.

Blinken told a congressional committee hearing that a deal could be used "as a platform both to look at whether the agreement itself can be lengthened and if necessary strengthened and also to capture" regional concerns.

The Gulf States remain sceptical. UAE envoy to Washington Yousef Al Otaiba said in April he saw no evidence the nuclear deal would become "a tool where moderates are empowered" in Iran, which holds presidential elections this month dominated by hardliners.

But we need to live with them in peace, Otaiba said. We want non-interference, no missiles, no proxies.

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Resigned to a nuclear deal revival, Gulf engages with foe Iran - Reuters