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After nearly two years of stunning success imposing maximum pressure on Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump has been holding back on delivering a final blow and abolishing the ill-fated Iran nuclear deal.If he waits too long, he may inadvertently breathe new life into a deal hepledgedto dismantle four years ago.

Ever since last summer, when Iran first exceeded the nuclear limits established by the 2015 agreement, Trump supporters in Congresshave urgedthe president to exercise the United States right to respond to Irans transgression by restoring all United Nations restrictions on its nuclear, missile, and conventional arms programs.This right to fully restore sanctions, known as snapback, wasmarketedby former President Barack Obama at the time as an accountability fail-safe to ensure that the United States could always deny Iran the strategic benefits of the nuclear deal should the regime breach its own commitments.

By late fall, with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)reportingthat Iran was not cooperating with an investigation into possible undeclared nuclear material and activities inside the country, the furor on Capitol Hill grew more intense. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz held up Stephen Bieguns nomination for deputy secretary of state until the State Departmentconfirmedin writing what legal experts had alreadyopined: The United States can use its right to snapback at any time.

Despite this acknowledgement, the Trump administration opted for a surprising strategy: not making use of the snapback prerogative.Instead, the focus shifted to fixing another piece of the Iran deal: the scheduled end of the United Nations arms embargo.

The IAEAsreportthis month that Iran has tripled its stockpile of enriched uranium since November demonstrated that the Trump administrations hesitation to unilaterally snap back sanctions allowed Iran to have its cake and eat it, toothat is, to fully breach the agreement while remaining on track to reap strategic benefits far beyond the end of the arms embargo.

If Trump was waiting for more justification to snap back sanctions and permanently end Obamas nuclear deal, he received it when the IAEAreportedthat Iran had also denied inspectors access to multiple sites connected to undeclared nuclear material and activities. That put Iran not only in breach of the agreement but in breach of its most basic safeguard obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, to which it is a signatory.

But instead of leveraging the IAEA reports to press for snapback, Secretary of StateMike Pompeoand his special envoy for Iran,Brian Hook,remained focused on trans-Atlantic coalition politicsbuilding support for a new United Nations Security Council resolution to extend the arms embargo on Iran this summer.

Though well-intentioned, the strategy wont work. Russia has alreadydeclaredits intent to veto any new Security Council resolution to extend the embargo. Pompeo recentlytestifiedbefore Congress that Russia is preparing to sell advanced arms to Iran the minute the embargo expires.

Even if Pompeo could persuade Russia to support a temporary extension of the arms embargo, that alone would not be worth allowing the rest of the Obama nuclear deal to survivebecause the deal gives Iran potential pathways to nuclear weapons as key restrictions expire.

On the other hand, if America snaps back sanctions at the Security Council, all restrictions on Iran return indefinitely: the arms embargo, missiles, nuclear restrictions, and the demand that Iran halt all enrichment activities on its own soil.Another bonus: Russia would have no veto power over snapback since the mechanism was designed to protect the rights of the United States and its European allies from attempts by Iran, Russia, or China to block the reimposition of sanctions.

Pompeo, for his part, may be concerned by reports that Russia would challenge Americas right to snapback, reinterpreting the plain language of the existing Security Council resolution to claim the United States forfeited its rights when it withdrew from the agreement.This concern echoeswarnings issuedby the Iran deals opponents in 2015 that any future fight over snapback would be a political struggle, not a legal one.What, after all, is the practical effect of a snapback that is not recognized as legitimate by the rest of the Security Council?

The Trump administrations strategy then might be to avoid a showdown inside a divided Security Council and, instead, do all it can to pressure European allies to take the final step. In that context, the administrations focus on the arms embargo might make sense.The logic: get Europe to agree that extending the arms embargo is a trans-Atlantic security priority and, following an inevitable Russian veto, make the case that snapback is the only remaining option.

If one of the European countries that are party to the deal with Iran triggers the snapback,most of the Security Council and, more importantly, the U.N. Secretariat may be more likely to recognize its legitimacy in the face of Russian and Chinese objections.If the Secretariat affirms that snapback occurred, it will have to resuscitate prior resolutions and sanctions committees governing Iranchanges that will be posted on the U.N. website for all nations to observe.Russia and China might still reject snapback, but Washingtons response to Moscows and Beijings actions would be anchored in binding Security Council resolutions.

European leaders, however, have done all they can to wait out the Trump administration in the hopes a new president will arrive in 2021 and return to the original deal.On the heels of a surprise coronavirustravel ban aimed at Europe, these leaders arent looking to do Trump any favors.Waiting until mid-summer to call a vote on an arms embargo resolution only to see the Europeans balk on snapback leaves little time for the administration to respond before the November election.

The snapback process takes 30 days to completea period that will be filled with loud threats from an Iranian regime desperate to undermine Trumps chances of reelection.Does anyone believe the presidents political advisers will favor a snapback that close to Election Day?

The outcome, then, may be not only the expiration of the arms embargo, but the survival of the nuclear deal with all its flawsa result that would greatly undermine the past two years of maximum pressure and decrease the incentive for Iran to negotiate a new deal.

If Pompeo believes that Europe, for its own internal politics, must see a vote to extend the arms embargo fail before agreeing to snapback, then he should schedule that vote and proceed to snapback without delay.The United Kingdom, having just losta British soldier to an Iranian proxy attack in Iraq, may be willing to act sooner than later.We must notwaste another moment to save the United Statesand the worldfrom what Trump rightly calls the worst deal ever made.

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If Trump Hates Obama's Nuclear Deal, Why Is He Letting Up on Iran? - Foreign Policy

FILE PHOTO: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani speaks during the cabinet meeting in Tehran, Iran, March 4, 2020. Official Presidential website/Handout via REUTERS

DUBAI (Reuters) - President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday Iran has responded, and will respond, to Americas assassination of Major-General Qassem Soleimani, the Revolutionary Guards commander killed in a U.S. drone strike in Iraq in January.

Rouhani was speaking following a Cabinet meeting that was broadcast on state television.

Soleimani, leader of the Revolutionary Guards Quds Force, was instrumental in expanding Irans military influence in the Middle East as the operative who handles clandestine operations outside Iran. The 62-year-old general was regarded as the second-most powerful figure in Iran after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The Americans assassinated our great commander. We have responded to that terrorist act and will respond to it, Rouhani said in a televised speech.

Reporting by Dubai Newsroom; Editing by Alex Richardson

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Iran president says Iran responded, will respond to assassination of Soleimani - Reuters

Iranian police have arrested five people over a prank video that shows aubergines falling from the sky in front of a Tehran landmark, state news agency Irna said on Monday.

A video showing eggplants raining down in the capital was published yesterday on social media, and the police immediately identified and arrested those behind it, Irna quoted a Tehran police official as saying.

They claimed they were conducting research in special effects when one of these clips was accidentally posted on social media, Ali Zolghadr said.

The five had emphasised that they belong to no specific group or movement, he added.

Irna did not specify what offence the arrested men were accused of perpetrating.

One of the viral clips shows a man trying to pose for a photo with Tehrans iconic Milad Tower in the background when suddenly a hail of aubergines starts coming down.

Irna said that according to online speculation, the video was made by someone named Amin Taghipour, an Iranian living in Canada proficient in special effects who works in Hollywood.

He had visited Iran for his fathers funeral but his flight back was cancelled over the coronavirus outbreak and now he is trying to have fun, the agency added.

Iran has been scrambling to contain the rapid spread of coronavirus in the country, which so far has infected nearly 14,000 people and killed more than 720, according to official figures.

Some of Irans neighbours have closed their borders with the country in the wake of the outbreak and many international flights to and from the Islamic republic have been cancelled.

Continue reading here:
Iranian police arrest five over prank aubergine-rain video - The Guardian

NEW DELHI: The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) told the Lok Sabha on Wednesday that 276 Indians have been infected by the novel coronavirus overseas, with the maximum number being reported from Iran at 255 cases. Of the 276 infected Indians overseas, 255 are in Iran, 12 in UAE, five in Italy, and one each in Hong Kong, Kuwait, Rwanda and Sri Lanka, the ministry said.

India has evacuated a total of 590 people from Iran. While 201 Indians were evacuated on Wednesday alone, 53 Indians had returned from Iran on Monday, ET has learnt. They all have been quarantined in Jaisalmer.

The Indian Embassies in the respective countries are in touch with such Indian citizens regarding appropriate medical attention in cooperation with local authorities, the ministry said.

Indians in Iran are being screened either by the Indian medical team which visited the Persian Gulf country or samples are collected from them and sent to India. There were over 6,000 Indians in various provinces of Iran at the time of the Covid-19 outbreak.

These included 1,100 pilgrims, mainly from the Union Territories of Ladakh and Jammu & Kashmir, and Maharashtra.

The first batch of 108 samples collected from Indians in Iran were received in India on March 7. After the tests, 58 Indian pilgrims (25 men, 31 women and two children), who were found negative, were repatriated in an IAF C-17 special flight on March 10.

Last week, external affairs minister S Jaishankar told Parliament that the government has also received samples of 529 more Indians, which have been tested at the National Institute of Virology.

We continue to collect more samples in Tehran and our endeavour is to ensure the earliest possible return of our nationals after appropriate testing and screening. We are working with the Iranian authorities to operate some limited commercial flights to facilitate their early return.

Our embassy, with the cooperation of the Iranian authorities, is making arrangements for medical care and monitoring of those who have tested positive, the minister said.

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Covid Red: Indian cases 1.7 times more in Iran - Economic Times

Its been nearly 60 years since the last time Iran asked the International Monetary Fund for a loan. Last week, after much deliberation, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif sent a letter to the IMF requesting a $5 billion loan to Iran from the IMFs rapid-assistance fund for countries dealing with the coronavirus crisis. Its unclear what will become of the Iranian request, for even if the IMF approves the loan, the United States could veto it.

President Trump has no intention right now of easing the sanctions on Iran or relaxing the maximal pressure policy with which he hopes to extract Iranian concessions on the nuclear accord and in its ballistic missile development. But even if the request clears all the hurdles, Iran will still have to submit to the IMFs dictates that in addition to oversight of its programs to fight the coronavirus also include a demand for economic reform. In the 1960s, President Kennedy asked the Shah of Iran to carry out a series of economic reforms as a condition for receiving a $35 million loan. Washington also dictated to Tehran whom to appoint as prime minister to carry out the reforms.

The Shah, who initially rejected the American demands, which included a major cut in government expenditures, reducing the military budget and holding free elections, was compelled to retreat. Under American pressure, the Shah agreed to appoint Ali Amini, the former Iranian ambassador to Washington, as prime minister. But the reforms were never implemented.

The student protests calling for free elections provided the Shah with the excuse to explain to Kennedy that elections would spell chaos that would bring about the regimes downfall and usher in Communist rule. Now it was Kennedy who backed off. The loan was approved and the Shah continued to do as he pleased.

The circumstances today are completely different because the Iranian request derives from a severe humanitarian crisis and the international need to halt the pandemic in which Iran is one of the main hotspots.

The Iranian regime reports that more than17,361 people are infected and more than 1,135 have died from the virus. Iran has become isolated beyond what even the U.S. sanctions program could have foreseen. Its borders with neighboring countries like the United Arab Emirates, with whom it has extensive trade ties, have been closed.

Turkey has ceased permitting Iranian citizens into its territory, and Pakistan, India and Afghanistan have followed suit. The import of medicines and medical equipment has been almost completely halted and the main tool left to the authorities is to isolate the cities and put the residents under curfew. Neither of these measures have yet been taken, due to opposition by the Revolutionary Guards and the Supreme Leader, but the streets are already quite empty and deserted.

Newspaper reports from different Iranian cities describe very sparse consumer traffic, with a 50-70 percent drop in sales of basic items and zero sales of luxury products. This is an important shopping season when Iranians prepare for the Persian New Year (Nowruz) that falls on March 21. Every year the shops and malls fill up with all kinds of merchandise and the merchants count on this period to give them a financial cushion for the whole year. But the siege imposed by the coronavirus combined with the sanctions that caused growth to drop by over 7.5 percent is trapping Iranians, who already are contending with a shortage of cash, not to mention dollars, which are subject to government restrictions.

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The Iranian tourism industry, which brings in an average of $12 billion a year, and exports of non-petroleum products, normally at $40 billion, have shrunk by more than 70 percent, and foreign currency reserves now stand at $73 billion, after having been slashed by more than $40 billion.

On Twitter, Foreign Minister Zarif posted a long list of the medical itmes that are urgently needed in Iran. These include ventilators, more than 160 million face masks, 100 million medical gloves, millions of diagnostic kits and 10 million protective suits for medical staff. This long list reflects not just Irans immediate needs but also is lack of preparedness to deal with an epidemic on a smaller scale than the coronavirus.

It also pokes holes in the regimes declarations that it has the outbreak under control and is using every possible measure to stamp it out. In ordinary times, the publication of such a list of requests would probably ignite widespread public protest, but fortunately for the regime, people are refraining from taking to the streets and demonstrating for fear of infection. And they also understand that protest wont be of help in getting the virus under control.

The question now is whether and how Irans experience with the coronavirus will influence its foreign policy and its relations with the United States and with countries in the region. Its too early to say how the epidemic will affect the regimes diplomatic priorities. The realistic working assumption right now is that if the epidemic continues for several more weeks, Iran will have to declare a state of emergency, which would mean freezing production, imposing a curfew and shutting down almost all public services.

Such a situation would give the security forces and the Revolutionary Guards total control in the country. In this forecast, Iran will struggle to keep financing its military activity in Syria, Yemen and Lebanon, but that doesnt mean that it will completely abandon those arenas. Its main path to salvation from the economic crisis lies in a new nuclear accord and in concessions to the American demands, and the coronavirus is still no help with those.

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As coronavirus ravages Iran, the Ayatollah turns to the world for help - Haaretz