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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) Even among hardliners in Iran, there seems to be an acknowledgment of one fact after widespread protests, violence and a security force crackdown following a spike in government-set gasoline prices: This will not be the last time demonstrators come out on the street.

As Iran struggles under crushing U.S. sanctions following President Donald Trumps unilateral withdrawal of America from Tehrans nuclear deal with world powers, its elected civilian government and those in its Shiite theocracy will face ever-tougher decisions on where to cut costs.

Those cuts will more than likely target its vast system of government subsidies that make life affordable for its poor, from low-cost electricity in their homes to the bread on their plates. Any move to increase those prices will draw further protests. But the government may not have any other option.

The protests that struck some 100 cities and towns across Iran beginning Nov. 15 came after Iran raised minimum gasoline prices by 50% to 15,000 rials per liter. Thats 12 cents a liter, or about 50 cents a gallon. After a monthly 60-liter quota, it costs 30,000 rials a liter. Thats nearly 24 cents a liter or 90 cents a gallon. An average gallon of regular gas in the U.S. costs $2.58 by comparison, according to AAA.

Cheap gasoline is practically considered a birthright in Iran, home to the worlds fourth-largest crude oil reserves despite decades of economic woes since its 1979 Islamic Revolution. Gasoline there remains among the cheapest in the world, in part to help keep costs low for its underemployed, who often drive taxis to make ends meet.

Irans per-capita gross domestic product, often used as a rough sense of a nations standard of living, is just over $6,000, compared to over $62,000 in the U.S., according to the World Bank. That disparity, especially given Irans oil wealth, fueled the anger felt by demonstrators.

Irans government, however, likely saw little choice in trying to push through changes to its gasoline subsidies. Iran spent $26.6 billion on oil subsidies in 2018, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency, the most of any country in the world. Iran spent 15% of its overall GDP, or $69.2 billion, that year on oil, electricity and natural gas subsidies.

Keeping gas costs low also benefits the wealthy, as well as those who smuggle Iranian fuel into other countries.

U.S. sanctions, re-imposed by Trump, largely have stopped Iran from selling its crude oil abroad, cutting into a crucial source of government income. While Iranian President Hassan Rouhani pledged the money saved from cutting gasoline subsidies would go to the poor, Tehran also needs to cut back spending in order to weather the sanctions.

Already, Iranians have seen their savings chewed away by the rials collapse from 32,000 to $1 at the time of the 2015 atomic accord to 126,000 to $1 today. Daily staples also have risen in price.

Even with the hike in gasoline prices, Iran still subsidizes fuel costs. Its economy remains largely state-planned despite privatization efforts. Among other major subsidies are bread and wheat, diesel fuel, heating oil and electricity.

Irans minister of industry and trade, Reza Rahmani, pledged Tuesday that prices will not be increased through the end of the current Iranian year on March 21. However, the gasoline prices came suddenly and without warning overnight, signaling further cuts likely would follow the same way in order to try and control the outcry.

The scale of the gasoline price demonstrations remains unclear even today as Iran so far has not offered nationwide statistics for the number of people arrested, injured or killed in the protests. Amnesty International believes the protests and the security crackdown killed at least 161 people.

One Iranian lawmaker said he thought that over 7,000 people had been arrested, while the countrys interior minister said as many as 200,000 people took part in the demonstrations.

While demonstrators attacked gas stations, the target of choice appeared to be banks. Protesters attacked over 700 banks, smashing ATMs and setting some ablaze, Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli said. That anger doesnt come as a surprise. In recent years, banks burdened by bad debts or circled by corruption allegations have collapsed in Iran, sparking sporadic protests by depositors who lost their money. Some of those banks had ties to powerful people within Iran, leading to allegations of cronyism.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called those who attacked the banks thugs in his first comments on the demonstrations. His website published a cartoon showing masked rioters attacking a bank, while another frame showed a family and an elderly man with a cane peacefully waiting to withdraw money from an ATM.

Setting fire to such and such bank is not the action of the people, it is the action of thugs, Khamenei said, according to his website. These acts of sabotage do not solve any problem. In fact, they add insecurity to the problems that exist.

However, bank attacks were widespread in 1978 in the months ahead of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi abandoning the throne and the Islamic Revolution. Marxists who hated capitalism, Islamists who opposed usury rates and others taking advantage of the chaos ransacked hundreds of banks, angry over corruption. The Iranian economy nosedived as money flooded out of the country.

The revolution saw millions on the street, something not seen in these recent protests. However, these demonstrations turned violent in the span of a day, showing the danger looming ahead for Irans government as it likely faces further hard choices ahead as sanctions look unlikely to be lifted as it has begun breaking centrifuges, enrichment and stockpile limitations in the nuclear deal.

These riots are not the last ones and it definitely will happen in the future, Revolutionary Guard acting commander Gen. Ali Fadavi has warned.

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EDITORS NOTE Jon Gambrell, the news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the world since joining the AP in 2006. Follow him on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/jongambrellAP .

Continued here:
AP Analysis: Iran protests point to turmoil in the future - Associated Press

November 28, 201912:41 PM

Thousands have been protesting against the government and revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei in dozens of Iranian cities for more than a week now. The security forces have responded with lethal force, with human rights organization Amnesty International reporting more than a hundred deaths. The announcement made on the night of Nov. 15 that gasoline would be rationed and prices would increase dramatically -- in some cases tripling -- triggered the protests. Under sanctions imposed by the United States, Iran is only able to export small amounts of oil and goods, which has created a financial and economic crisis in the country. One of the aims of the American sanctions is to provoke protests. Officials in Washington hope a counterrevolution can bring down the regime. DER SPIEGEL spoke with Iranians who have witnessed the protests. To protect the interviewees, their names have not been used in this article, although their identities are known to the journalist.

Teacher, 37, from Tehran: "The news that gasoline prices would now double, from 1,500 toman to 3,000 toman (around 60 euro cents) per liter hit like a bang. At first, there was a silent protest in front of the university building. In addition to being a high school teacher, I am also completing a doctorate in architecture. I happened to be there when security forces in civilian clothes surrounded and removed some of the demonstrators. I wanted to get home fast, but the Revolutionary Guards stopped me. They called me a "traitor" and a "slut" and said I wasn't a real Muslim. They arrested me too. The police station was totally overcrowded. They insulted and intimidated me. I was allowed to leave after a few hours.

I rushed home. My brother wasn't there. No one had heard from him for 24 hours. A few days ago on Instagram, he wrote, "I have an important question for our leaders: You are so proud of the many missiles you have built to fight Israel. Are you also saving on gas there?" My brother is 27 years old and studying law.

Our internet connected was dead. The phones didn't work. We checked the police stations. It turned out the Revolutionary Guards had arrested him. We kept negotiating until he finally got released. He was totally exhausted. They had terrorized and humiliated him. He was ashamed to say what really happened to him in jail. We now know that many young demonstrators were killed. Just like that, shot on the street."

Islamic theology student, 56, from Shiraz: "When I came back from Tehran to my hometown of Shiraz this week, the streets in the north were full of people. We drove through the Maliabad district, where there are two gas stations. They were on fire. The driver said people were protesting over gas prices. He said they had set the gas stations on fire.

I am very religious and began pursuing a degree in Islamic theology at a later stage in my life. I trust the wisdom of our spiritual leader Khamenei. Closeness to God fulfills me. The protesters are enemies of our republic. They are being manipulated by our opponents, the Zionists. They support U.S. President Donald Trump's imperialist ideas. The Americans want to destroy Islam.

I don't really think there's a shortage of gasoline in Iran. It's all propaganda. President Hassan Rohani wants to stir up unrest in the Islamic Republic to please the Americans. He's a puppet of imperialism. He must have lost his faith.

I live in Farhang Shahr, a middle-class area. The enemies of the state also gathered there. The security forces pushed the demonstrators back. They told the protesters to go home. Then shots were fired. It must have been agents of Israel and America who sought to further incite demonstrators against the government.

We're being bombarded from the outside with false information. That's why it's good for the government to turn off the internet. Then the U.S. and Israel won't be able to continue wrongly and negatively influencing people here."

Web designer, 32, from Shiraz: "In the beginning, we, the protesters, walked silently down the street. The crowd kept growing. Then, some started shouting slogans, like: "Not Lebanon, not Gaza, I will only sacrifice myself for my fatherland Iran!" The idea was that Iran should not interfere with the conflicts of Arab countries. Another slogan was: "Our enemy isn't America, our enemy is here!" Shots were fired. They were trying to scare us. They also used tear gas. Civilian police, who had only moments ago been walking with the crowd as if they belonged to the demonstrators, suddenly began arresting people. Everyone panicked and scattered.

We just wanted someone to listen to our problems -- they mayor of Shiraz, for example, or an imam. But no one came. The reality is that other prices will go up along with gasoline prices -- bread, eggs, meat, rent. A lot of people are losing their jobs right now.

We're four people in my family. We all live in the same apartment. My dad works as a painter, my mother is a teacher, I'm a web designer and my brother is employed by the city. But the high inflation means we still don't have enough money to buy things like fresh fruit every day. We never go on vacation. We seldom invite friends over anymore. We can only afford meat once a week. The recent price increase just went too far. The situation gets even worse with each new uprising. I would like to start a family, but I can't afford it. Nobody gives us any help. Has the world forgotten us?"

City tour guide, 30, from Shiraz: "Our office is located directly on the big street where the protests took place. Many tourists from Europe, Sweden, Germany and England who had signed up for tours have since canceled their trips because of the unrest. For us, this means we won't make any money yet again.

My cousin Rubina called. She was upset and crying and said she had gotten caught up in a demonstration in front of the university in Maliabad. She saw a fellow student get shot in the head. He fell to the ground and everyone screamed. Rubina thinks he died before the ambulance arrived to take him away. The Revolutionary Guards had simply mingled among the protesters. That's why we no longer know which of the demonstrators belong to us and which belong to them.

On Tuesday, my cousin and I arranged to meet in the city center, at the intersection near the Saadi cinema. Protesters had just set banks there on fire. They wanted to send a message against inflation. There were police and intelligence service people everywhere. It was chaotic. We stayed in the background because we feared they would shoot again.

They're blocking the internet so that none of this gets out. They're cutting us off. Blood is being shed again in vain. We need this connection to the outside world. Call us! Come to our country! Don't forget us."

Architect, 28, from Bushehr: "The price increases have really upset people. The protesters have been normal, mostly poorer people. They made no secret of how fed up they are with the government. They want a regime change.

There were police and members of the Revolutionary Guard everywhere. They aimed hot water at the demonstrators and used tear gas. I saw it myself. It was eerie to observe how they neither allowed the protesters to move forward nor backward. This country has no plan for the future. The economic situation is no longer bearable. It is entirely unclear what will happen next. Perhaps the Iranians will soon be at each other's throats?

My wife's trying to get a student visa for Canada right now. I just want to leave this country."

Businessman, 37, from Tehran: "We're a family business that sells technical equipment. Things were going quite well for us, but everything has been back to zero since the sanctions went into full force again. We are living off our savings. Costs are constantly increasing as incomes decline. The economic pressure on the people has now led to this backlash.

It was the poorer people from the south who took to the streets in Tehran. They set banks on fire as a statement against inflation. In the nearby town of Karaj, people deliberately created traffic jams on the highway. The anger is unrestrained. But the Revolutionary Guard showed up everywhere at once. They were very harsh toward the demonstrators.

Mistrust toward President Hassan Rohani is growing in Iran. The government is chaotic. The people are suffering extremely from the fact that few countries are willing to work with Iran. Things can't continue like this. We now have the feeling that we have been left completely alone here. No one in the outside world will know if they are persecuting or killing us."

Art teacher, 43, Shiraz: "I haven't allowed my son to go to school for a week now. We've barely left our home since the unrest began. The atmosphere outside is tense and things are only slowly quieting down. Banks and other institutions in Tehran have been set on fire and destroyed. What's left is a feeling of serious insecurity. Our trust in this government has been exhausted. There's fraud and corruption everywhere. Things can't go on like this. I can't see anything positive here any longer. My husband and I both make money, but it's not enough to make ends meet. We're so tired of this fight. I wish I could travel back through time to the days before the revolution. Everything needs to change. I would love to live in another country."

More:
'Has the World Forgotten Us?': Eyewitnesses on the Unrest in Iran - SPIEGEL ONLINE

And Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi taunted the United States by saying his country was ready for war - while saying US President Donald Trump did not dare to attack.Iran - which was widely blamed for a rocket and drone attack on oil refineries hundreds of miles away in Saudi Arabia earlier this year, is upping the ante with the new kit, and is also building a new warship.

As regards drones, we will observe addition of long-range aircraft with very high flight ceiling whose level of remote guidance is special

Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi

Speaking at a ceremony in Tehran yesterday, Mr Khandazi said the Navy was already equipped with drones which can be guided from a distance of 130 miles - but stressed the away, adding that the new drones would extend the limit significantly.

He explained: As regards drones, we will observe addition of long-range aircraft with very high flight ceiling whose level of remote guidance is special.

Concurrently, we will witness the launch of a mine-clearing warship, Saba, in the Navy as well as a drone, namely Simorq, which has a flight durability of 24 hours and capability to carry different types of weapons, including bombs, rockets and projectiles.

On Wednesday, Mr Khanzadi announced his forces would also be taking delivery of a new destroyer, Dena, within the next two months.

He told reporters: God willing, we will witness addition of the destroyer, Dena, to the Navy in the Iranian month of Bahman (January 21 to 19 February).

Another warship, Sahand, which joined the Navy last year, was now ready for missions in the ocean.

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Meanwhile a third, Taftan, is scheduled to be delivered next year.

Mr Khanzadi also revealed plans to build a new class of heavy destroyers, in accordance with a project known as Negin, each of them weighing more than 5,000 tons.

In a pointed message to the US, he stressed his countrys preparedness for war, saying: The Iranian Armed Forces enjoy very high capabilities, and the US does not dare to directly confront Iran, and that is why it uses proxy agents, such as terrorist groups, to attain its goals.

In September, Tehran unveiled an attack drone, Kian, which Brigadier General Alireza Sabahifard, the head of Irans air-defence force, claimed could fly more than 600 miles and reach an altitude of 15,000 feet.

He said it was capable of hitting distant targets far from Irans borders.

Iran denied involvement in the rocket attacks in September on two major oil installations, with President Hassan Rouhani insisting they were the work Houthi rebels in Yemen.

However, Saudi commander Lt Col Turki al-Maliki, displayed drone and missile technology at a press conference in Riyadh which he said was of Iranian origin.

He added: Irans continued aggression and continued support for militia groups harms us all.

Relations with the West have deteriorated sharply since Mr Trump pulled the US out of landmark JPOCA deal aimed at preventing Iran developing nuclear weapons, citing repeated violations, and imposing sanctions targeting the countrys oil industry.

Earlier this week, Frances Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian floated the idea of triggering a mechanism in the 2015 deal which could lead to the re-imposition of separate, UN sanctions, sparking an angry reaction from Tehran.

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Seyed Abbas Mousavi said: Such remarks are irresponsible and unconstructive and disrupt harshly the efficiency of political initiatives to fully implement the nuclear deal by all sides in line with the nuclear deal to remove all sanctions and do approvals of the joint commission.

He added: Under the current conditions, the nuclear deal does not allow the European sides at all to cite this mechanism against the Islamic Republic of Irans use of its legitimate right in response to the US illegal and unilateral measures and basic violation of undertakings by the European sides.

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Iran war threat: Tehran boasts of long-range drones armed with rockets and bombs - Express.co.uk

The cycle of protest and vicious repression is grimly familiar in the region. Irans five-day internet shutdown helped to ensure that we still know relatively little about this months events there. What we do know makes grim reading. Amnesty International says it has credible reports of at least 143 deaths since unrest broke out on 15 November, and that the true total is likely to be significantly higher. It details police firing on crowds and in some cases shooting protesters as they ran away. The regime itself boasts of having made 1,000 arrests; others suggest four times that many may have been detained.

These were widespread protests, reportedly reaching 70% of provinces. They appear to have been more in the mould of those seen in 2017 and 2018 leaderless, economically driven, and drawing in poorer voters rather than the more middle-class, urban and political green movement of 2009. According to the authorities, around 87,000 people took part, mostly unemployed young men.

The spark was the abrupt increase in petrol prices, of almost 300%. The government said it wanted to tackle fuel smuggling and give cash payments to the poorest three-quarters of Irans 80 million population. One problem is that the price hikes arrived first. Another is that, owing to official incompetence and corruption, many do not trust the authorities to deliver what they promise. A third is that in many cases the cash will not offset peoples increased fuel costs.

The broader context is the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and Americas choking of the Iranian economy, already suffering after decades of mismanagement. Inflation and unemployment have soared. The impact has not only been on the daily struggle of Iranians to get by, but also, perhaps as critically, upon their morale: the US abandonment of the JCPOA dashed many peoples last hope. The optimism and energy that surged when Hassan Rouhani signed the agreement has vanished. The Trump administrations actions have discredited the president and other reformists.

Iranians are unlikely to see significant improvements in their dire economic conditions unless this international context changes. The E3 France, Germany and the UK should continue their attempts to facilitate negotiations, however hopeless that task may seem. In the absence of progress, there is the real danger that Iran will provoke a regional crisis to draw international attention again.

Tehran will have been well prepared for these protests, given the unrest of the last two years and its role in Lebanon and Iraq, also gripped by demonstrations. Yet more dissent will surely come. Accusing the US, Britain and others of stoking unrest, as the regime has done, will do nothing to persuade people that their dissatisfaction is being addressed. Brutal crackdowns fuel their grievances.

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The Guardian view on Irans protests: unrest is crushed, unhappiness endures - The Guardian

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) last week released a landmark report analyzing the capabilities of Irans military. In light of Irans September attacks on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia, the reports emphasis on Tehrans expanding cruise missile capabilities has already proven to be prescient.

The DIAs new report, titled Iran Military Power: Ensuring Regime Survival and Securing Regional Dominance, highlights Tehrans development of land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs). The report notes that Tehran has invested heavily in its domestic infrastructure, equipment, and expertise to develop increasingly capable cruise missiles.

Tehrans investment of its limited resources in LACMs is not surprising, given the challenges LACMs create for opposing air defense forces. The DIA notes that LACMs present a unique threat profile from ballistic missiles because they can fly at low altitude and attack a target from multiple directions.

This low and unpredictable flight path utilizes ground features for concealment and makes it more difficult to detect and track the cruise missile essential precursors to intercepting it. The September attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais demonstrated the value of such concealment; Iran reportedly used seven cruise missiles (along with 18 drones) to target the Saudi installations from an unexpected direction.

Significantly, the DIA reports information cutoff date was August before the September attack. This underscores the speed with which threats are evolving, and the need for redoubled U.S. efforts to understand emerging threats in order to prepare for and offset them.

According to the DIA, Irans cruise and ballistic missiles are developed by a subsidiary of Tehrans Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics, the Aerospace Industries Organization. Both the ministry and its subsidiary are subject to EU sanctions, which expire in 2023, as well as to U.S. sanctions, which have no expiration date.

In addition to drawing on Irans domestic missile production capacity, Tehrans cruise missile programs have benefitted extensively from foreign procurement. Irans LACM capability is primarily derived from the Soviet Kh-55, an air-launched cruise missile that Tehran imported in 2001 and later converted for ground-launch. This Iranian copy of the Kh-55, dubbed the Soumar, may have been involved in the Abqaiq attacks. Iran has continued to upgrade the Soumar, both for itself and its regional proxies and partners.

The DIA report notes that a key modernization goal of Irans armed forces is to [i]ncrease the accuracy, lethality, and production of ballistic and cruise missiles. The report curiously omits range, which Iranian defense officials have recently touted alongside accuracy as a goal of their cruise missile program.

Iran does have other cruise missile variants, such as anti-ship cruise missiles, which feature prominently in Tehrans maritime strategy in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. It also has air-launched and reportedly even submarine-launched cruise missiles, though their operational capacities are unknown. Nonetheless, LACMs like the Soumar and its variants fit neatly with Tehrans interest in surface-to-surface missiles that function simultaneously as weapons of war and intimidation.

Given Irans dangerous missile use and expanding capabilities, policymakers should seek to sanction Irans domestic missile supply chain and foreign nodes for procurement. At the same time, the United States should expedite and deepen cooperation with key partners such as Israel to expeditiously field more effective cruise missile defense systems to protect both forward deployed American troops and the U.S. homeland.

Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to FDDs Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). Bradley Bowman is senior director of CMPP. For more of their policy briefs, op-eds, and research, subscribe HERE. For more from CMPP, subscribe HERE. Follow Bradley on Twitter @Brad_L_Bowman. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

This article originally appeared on the Foundation for Defense of Democracies website.

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New Intelligence Report Shows That Iran's Missiles Are Serious Business - The National Interest Online