The idea that the world will be a better place after the death of Isis leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a far-fetched one. Sure, Isis was dealt a major blow, but that hardly makes the Middle Easta better-looking place. It makes it look like a pig wearing makeup.
Isis effectively took a wrecking ball to the Arab world. The groups main aim was to blur existing national borders in favour of its caliphate. But its historic and dramatic rise left us struggling to recognise the wider Middle Easts descent into anarchy.
Both in its structure and in its lust for power, Isis was a reflection of whats happened to the region now nothing more than a decadent corpse, devastated not by Isis alone but by an unprecedented hike in the number of militias and armed groups.
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Whether you callthem militias, armies, rapid forces or whatever youd prefer depends on where you stand. This belt of militias extends across Libya, Sudan, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. It is a complicated pattern of armed groups created to fight each other as part of an endless multi-layered cold war shaping the regions future.
They are wreaking havoc within and beyond the borders of the post-independence Arab state as we know it, and threatening its very existence. Although they have conflicting ideological, ethnical, geographical and tribal agendas, they all share one motive: serving the interests of big regional players, many of whom helped create them in the first place.
Iran was the first to devise the idea of a militia more powerful than the state, a force to control the state from within as part of a regional sectarian project. In Lebanon, the creation of Hezbollah which has increased its power and survived for decades was a great success. It sent a wave of admiration throughout the whole region, especially (and ironically) among Irans rivals in the Gulf.
A Syrian tank lies turned over in the Hermon Stream in the Banias Nature Reserve on the western edge of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israel captured the area, a former demilitarized zone, in the 1967 Six Day War
Reuters
A part of the trench in a former Jordanian military post known as Ammunition Hill in Jerusalem. Originally built by the British, the site was captured by Jordan in the 1948-1949 war and held by them until Israeli troops captured it in the 1967
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
An abandoned mosque on a rainy morning in the Golan Heights, in territory that Israel captured from Syria and occupied in the 1967 Middle East war. Until 1967 a Syrian village inhabited by Circassians stood near the site, which now lies just 5km on the Israeli side of the United Nations-monitored 'Area of Separation' that divides Israeli and Syrian military forces under a 1974 ceasefire arrangement
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
The broken helicopter of the late Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat sits atop a structure in Gaza City. Without its main rotor, it is now on public display in the coastal enclave that is now controlled by the Palestinian Authority's most powerful domestic rival, Hamas
Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa
A sign warning of landmines on a fence in the Golan Heights. Many Israeli and foreign tourists drive past the site on their way to popular holiday spots
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
Part of an abandoned Syrian building in the Golan Heights. Once a military headquarters, it is one of many Syrian buildings left deserted and abandoned since wars fought half a century ago
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
The wall of a structure in a former Syrian outpost in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. In stark contrast to the beauty of the surrounding countryside, it is now crumbling and covered in graffiti, one Arabic message reading: "The Syrian army passed by here."
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
Buildings constructed during the British Mandate era to serve as jails and fortified positions in Al-Jiftlik village near Jericho, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Long abandoned, sheep now wander through the empty buildings, searching for vegetation in the scorching heat of the Jordan Valley. The Israeli military sometimes uses them for training, Palestinian residents say
Reuters/Mohamad Torokman
A bunker in the Golan Heights, in territory that Israel captured from Syria. It was used for military purposes and has been deserted for many years
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
British soldiers depicted in a mural on an old pillbox in Jerusalem. The pillbox dating back to the era of British Mandatory rule before 1948, stands abandoned in a busy intersection of Jerusalem. The mural was added in recent years
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
Concrete blast walls are seen in an open area once used by the Israeli military near Rahat, southern Israel. Once part of a facility for training in urban warfare, the barriers are now an isolated scar on the landscape
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
A part of a trench is seen in a former Jordanian military post known as Ammunition Hill in Jerusalem. Originally built by the British, the site was captured by Jordan in the 1948-1949 war and held by them until Israeli troops captured it in the 1967
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
The derelict remains of Gaza International Airport in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Former US President Bill Clinton attended the opening ceremony in 1998. But Israeli air strikes and bulldozers closed it down during the second Palestinian uprising, or Intifada, a few months after the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States
Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa
A house is seen in Lifta, a ruined Palestinian Arab village whose inhabitants left or were forced from their homes in the conflict that accompanied the end of British rule and the founding of Israel in 1948. The abandoned ruins are visible to travelers arriving at the western entrance of Jerusalem
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
An abandoned mosque on a rainy morning in the Golan Heights, in territory that Israel captured from Syria
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
A part of a structure in a former Jordanian military base near the Dead Sea in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The building is a scar in the landscape as it stands deserted following the 1967 Middle East war when Israel captured the area from the Jordanians
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
A Syrian tank lies turned over in the Hermon Stream in the Banias Nature Reserve on the western edge of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israel captured the area, a former demilitarized zone, in the 1967 Six Day War
Reuters
A part of the trench in a former Jordanian military post known as Ammunition Hill in Jerusalem. Originally built by the British, the site was captured by Jordan in the 1948-1949 war and held by them until Israeli troops captured it in the 1967
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
An abandoned mosque on a rainy morning in the Golan Heights, in territory that Israel captured from Syria and occupied in the 1967 Middle East war. Until 1967 a Syrian village inhabited by Circassians stood near the site, which now lies just 5km on the Israeli side of the United Nations-monitored 'Area of Separation' that divides Israeli and Syrian military forces under a 1974 ceasefire arrangement
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
The broken helicopter of the late Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat sits atop a structure in Gaza City. Without its main rotor, it is now on public display in the coastal enclave that is now controlled by the Palestinian Authority's most powerful domestic rival, Hamas
Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa
A sign warning of landmines on a fence in the Golan Heights. Many Israeli and foreign tourists drive past the site on their way to popular holiday spots
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
Part of an abandoned Syrian building in the Golan Heights. Once a military headquarters, it is one of many Syrian buildings left deserted and abandoned since wars fought half a century ago
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
The wall of a structure in a former Syrian outpost in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. In stark contrast to the beauty of the surrounding countryside, it is now crumbling and covered in graffiti, one Arabic message reading: "The Syrian army passed by here."
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
Buildings constructed during the British Mandate era to serve as jails and fortified positions in Al-Jiftlik village near Jericho, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Long abandoned, sheep now wander through the empty buildings, searching for vegetation in the scorching heat of the Jordan Valley. The Israeli military sometimes uses them for training, Palestinian residents say
Reuters/Mohamad Torokman
A bunker in the Golan Heights, in territory that Israel captured from Syria. It was used for military purposes and has been deserted for many years
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
British soldiers depicted in a mural on an old pillbox in Jerusalem. The pillbox dating back to the era of British Mandatory rule before 1948, stands abandoned in a busy intersection of Jerusalem. The mural was added in recent years
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
Concrete blast walls are seen in an open area once used by the Israeli military near Rahat, southern Israel. Once part of a facility for training in urban warfare, the barriers are now an isolated scar on the landscape
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
A part of a trench is seen in a former Jordanian military post known as Ammunition Hill in Jerusalem. Originally built by the British, the site was captured by Jordan in the 1948-1949 war and held by them until Israeli troops captured it in the 1967
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
The derelict remains of Gaza International Airport in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Former US President Bill Clinton attended the opening ceremony in 1998. But Israeli air strikes and bulldozers closed it down during the second Palestinian uprising, or Intifada, a few months after the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States
Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa
A house is seen in Lifta, a ruined Palestinian Arab village whose inhabitants left or were forced from their homes in the conflict that accompanied the end of British rule and the founding of Israel in 1948. The abandoned ruins are visible to travelers arriving at the western entrance of Jerusalem
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
An abandoned mosque on a rainy morning in the Golan Heights, in territory that Israel captured from Syria
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
A part of a structure in a former Jordanian military base near the Dead Sea in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The building is a scar in the landscape as it stands deserted following the 1967 Middle East war when Israel captured the area from the Jordanians
Reuters/Ronen Zvulun
Even as Hezbollah and later its replicas in Iraq (Popular Mobilisation Forces) and Yemen (Houthis) created the biggest security threat in the Gulf countries history, those same Gulf states decided to mirror the same Iranian strategy in a bid to counter its increasing influence. The whole idea is to destroy Irans power using its own weapon.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar (who are at this very moment busy trying to undermine each other) have invested billions of dollars in trying to push Iran back. If they are serious about putting an end to Iranian intervention in the Arab sphere, this is the right thing to do.
But by copying and pasting their rivals militia strategy, they ended up doing the right thing in a disastrous way. The idea of killing Iran with its own weapon simply backfired.
The fallout is all too apparent: millions of Arab refugees, the swift rise of religious extremism, and the creation of existential threats to fellow Arab states. And who benefits without lifting a finger? Iran, of course.
But this isnt just about Iranian power. Saudi Arabia, theUAE, Egypt and their allies (not to mention Qatar) are also inadvertently helping Turkey and Israel as they too try to gain ground. It is not surprising that the more effort the Gulf states put into pushing back the non-Arab powers, the more influence those same powers accrue.
The wealthy Arab states also got it wrong when they tried applying the same minority-empowerment strategy used by Iran to bolster theShiacommunity to solve the Sunni majority dilemma in the Arab world. Instead of empowering the state in in Syria, Libya and Yemen, they unintentionally ended up undermining its very existence.
In providing generous support for Libyas General Khalifa Haftars National Army in his fight against the Qatari-backed militias in Tripoli, and in propping up Yemens southern separatists and General Hemedtis Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are digging a big hole for themselves as they try to pursue some kind of Arab project in the face of Irans relentless efforts to undermine it.
The huge amount of cash pumped into this anarchy created a new class of warlords, who are now capable of controlling a large portion of these countries populations, guaranteeing their security and providing them with basic services where the state cannot.
As time passes, the militia system feeds on its own power, with various warlords establishing cross-border solidarity and others backing conflicting forces. It is reported that Hezbollah is providing Yemens Houthis with the technical know-how they need to target sensitive Saudi infrastructure with drones.
Sudanese General Hemedti, on the other hand, has taken a different side in the Yemen war, trying to prop-up president Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadis forces in his fight against the Houthis. This week, other reports suggested that Hemedti has sent troops to back General Haftar in Libya.
Meanwhile, Qatar, with the help of Turkey, is also doing its part by supporting the militias trying to thwart Haftars bid to recapture the Libyan capital, Tripoli.
This bleak and eccentric network has turned the Middle East into a region run, in effect, by warlords and militia commanders.
The only way out is for the Gulf states to change course. If they are to stop Irans rambling death train in its tracks, they must sign a reconciliation agreement that would put an end to their meaningless and protracted feuds. And they must accept that by deploying militias as power vehicles, they have helped lay waste to what remains of various Arab societies.
The time has come for the big Arab regional powers to instead invest in real institutions and support strong governments that can effectively run sovereign states. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar must stop serving Irans agenda both intentionally and unintentionally once and for all.
Read more:
The Gulf states tried to turn Irans own weapon against it and it backfired with terrible consequences - The Independent