Archive for the ‘Iran’ Category

What Does the Iranian Election Tell Us? – The New York Times

On Friday Iran held its 11th parliamentary elections since the foundation of the Islamic Republic in 1979, and the first since the Trump administration renewed sanctions on Iran and battered its economy.

The voting turnout 42.5 percent was the lowest since 1979, and a loose alliance of conservative candidates won. In Tehran, the capital, where about 75 percent of the voters chose not to vote, all 30 seats were won by the conservative candidates loyal to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

The Iranian electorate faces a perpetual dilemma on whether to participate or boycott the elections as the choice of candidates is limited and the Guardian Council a constitutional committee made up of six clerics and six jurists that vets the electoral candidates bars those seen as critical of the regime or deviating from its positions.

More than 7,000 candidates, most of them reformists and moderates, including 90 members of the current Iranian Parliament, were disqualified from Fridays elections by the Guardian Council for having insufficient ideological loyalty, a move that reduced voter participation.

The turnout was higher than Tehran in smaller cities, where citizens have more incentive to vote if the candidates promise better schools and hospitals, improved roads, faster internet, more ethnic inclusion and even individual patronage. As the American sanctions have debilitated the Iranian economy, greater participation in parliamentary elections offers the provinces an opportunity to bargain for a better share of the shrinking pie from Tehran.

In Tehran and other major cities, the parliamentary elections signal not only the citizens preferences for particular factions within the regime but also its legitimacy as a whole. Participation rates in the major cities fluctuate more often and reflect the political diversity of the candidates.

In the 2016 parliamentary elections, a high turnout enabled moderate reformist candidates to secure Tehrans 30 seats in the Parliament. The conservative winners in Tehran, this weekend, were led by Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the former head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps air force wing, who is expected to be the speaker of the incoming Parliament. Victories like Mr. Qalibafs demonstrate that the Revolutionary Guard is ensuring its presence and domination of the Parliament as well.

Iranians who refused to vote expressed their anger and their disappointment with the Revolutionary Guards bloody crackdown on protesters in November, and its cover-up of the accidental shooting of a civilian airplane near Tehran in January. But the trouble with boycotting the elections is that it opens the doors of the Parliament for the most conservative wing of the political system.

Iranian society stands at an uncharted crossroad and the regime is bringing the apparatus of the state under the control of what it considers to be its most loyal elites, one election at a time. In a politically, economically and regionally tumultuous environment, doing so would allow an orderly transition to the next supreme leader.

The brutal response to the November protests across the country showed the will and the capacity of the security apparatus to put down unrest. And a multinational army of proxies under the banner of the Revolutionary Guards Quds Force operating from Lebanon and Syria to Iraq and Yemen, have demonstrated Tehrans will and effectiveness in defending its sphere of influence and fighting threats from hostile states to nonstate participants.

Irans constitutional design places the Islamic Republic in a win-win position. High voter participation helps legitimize the regime and a boycott invariably leads to a conservative victory. Elections also serve as a convenient device for the state to learn about and manage popular sentiments before they turn into a mass revolt.

Despite these institutional constraints, Iranian citizens have often outmaneuvered their leaders and stunned the world by using elections as a tool to coordinate nationwide social and political movements.

After the 1989 death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, and with the gradual decline of revolutionary fervor, competition among Mr. Khomeinis followers provided a narrow political opportunity for Iranian citizens.

By choosing candidates who appeared furthest from the establishment, Iranians revealed their preference for radical change not only to the ruling elites but also to each other. Far from strengthening the regime, elections often turned into national protests, deepening the gap between the state and the society and further polarizing factional politics.

The student uprising in 1999 over the governments crackdown on the media and the Green Movement against what millions viewed as a rigged re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009 were direct results of electoral politics and popular frustrations with the regimes suppression of the peoples struggle for civil rights.

The ruling elites managed this 30-year cycle of elections and protests through a sequence of crackdowns, concessions and more crackdowns. Disillusioned citizens sometimes boycotted elections only to return to the ballot box with vehemence.

Parliamentary elections in Iran have become a consistent predictor of relations between the state and the society. The low turnout in the 2004 parliamentary elections signaled popular disillusionment after the failure of the reform movement that started in the 1997 presidential election to protect civic rights, which led to the 2005 election of Mr. Ahmadinejad to the presidency.

The high turnout in the 2016 parliamentary elections confirmed the high approval rate of President Hassan Rouhani and the nuclear agreement he signed with the United States and other world powers, predicting his landslide re-election the following year.

The conservative victory in the recent parliamentary elections indicates that the Iranian people are disenchanted with electoral politics that deliver nothing. It sets the stage for the ascendance of a hard-line president in the 2021 election if the populations apathy persists. And the absence of public pressure and elite bargaining will determine the appointment of a possibly even more hawkish supreme leader after Ayatollah Khamenei.

Yet after this electoral cycle, Iranian voters may not easily return to the ballot box. Fridays election could be the beginning of the death of Irans limited electoral politics.

Frustrations against the political system run deep in the country. So do anxieties over external threats to the nations security and territorial integrity. It is unclear which direction Iranian society will take.

Elections in the past have laid the ground for cultural exchanges, diplomatic negotiations and a nuclear agreement between Iran and the United States. After the starkly low turnout and the conservative victory, we might be inching toward a more turbulent phase between the two countries.

Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar is an associate professor of international affairs at Texas A&M Universitys Bush School of Government and Public Service and a fellow at Rice Universitys Baker Institute for Public Policy.

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What Does the Iranian Election Tell Us? - The New York Times

Turkey Says 132 on Flight From Iran to Be Quarantined – The New York Times

ANKARA/ISTANBUL All 132 passengers and crew on a Turkish Airlines plane from Tehran will be quarantined for 14 days and tested for possible coronavirus infection at a hospital in Ankara, Turkish Health Minister Fahrettin Koca said on Tuesday.

The flight from Tehran was carrying Turkish nationals home after Ankara closed its border with Iran this weekend following a coronavirus outbreak there, Koca said in a written statement.

An aviation source said earlier the flight was originally due to land at Istanbul, one of the world's largest airports, but was diverted to Ankara. The Health Ministry denied this.

"A special flight was set up for Turkish citizens wishing to return to our country from Iran. Turkish citizens who come to our country from Iran with this flight will be kept under a quarantine for 14 days," Koca said.

On Tuesday, the death toll from the coronavirus in Iran rose to 16. Turkish broadcaster CNN Turk said earlier 17 passengers, including 12 from Iran's Qom region, were suspected to have the virus.

Turkey's Demiroren news agency broadcast footage showing ambulances lined up beside the plane after landing in Ankara, with several personnel wearing white protective suits on the tarmac.

Turkish Airlines said on Tuesday it had extended a cancellation of flights to Iranian cities, with the exception of Tehran, until March 10.

On Monday, the airline said it canceled flights to Mashhad, Isfahan, Tabriz and Shiraz. It also said it cut the frequency of Tehran flights to two per day.

More than 80,000 people have been infected in China since coronavirus outbreak began late last year China's death toll was 2,663 by the end of Monday. The outbreak has spread to about 29 countries and territories.

Turkish Airlines shares traded down 2% while main bluechip index was down 0.3% at 1057 GMT.

(Additioanl reporting by Ece Toksabay in Ankara; Writing by Ezgi Erkoyun; Editing by Jonathan Spicer and Nick Macfie)

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Turkey Says 132 on Flight From Iran to Be Quarantined - The New York Times

The Guardian view on Irans elections: a closing door – The Guardian

Irans election on Friday was a blow to moderates, a disappointment for conservative rulers and bad news for the region too. The result was largely ordained before anyone could cast a ballot. Hardliners appear to have swept the parliamentary contest taking all 30 seats in Tehran because the authorities ensured that they would. The Guardian Council, which is loosely under the control of the supreme leader, had disqualified around half of the thousands of candidates for the 290-seat body, including 90 serving members. While parliaments powers are limited, it can impede the president and shape the political environment; with a presidential race due next year, the result sets a course for conservative control of every branch of government as seen during Mahmoud Ahmadinejads grim tenure.

Yet the outcome of Fridays poll was far from the endorsement sought. Despite the supreme leaders exhortations to vote, the extension of polling hours and the anger engendered by the US assassination of Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Quds force, a usually active electorate stayed away. Turnout stood at just 42.5%, the first time it has dipped below 50% since the 1979 revolution; in Tehran it was just 25%.

Though Ayatollah Khamenei blamed Irans enemies for exaggerating the threat of the new coronavirus, it is not surprising that so many voters saw little point in participating. Not only were their candidates struck from this contest, but they have little to show for supporting them in the past. In 2013, the moderate Hassan Rouhani won the presidency pledging to end his countrys isolation and revive its economy. The resulting nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) ensured a landslide when he stood again in 2017. Yet the opposition he has faced internally, the moderates own shortcomings and, above all, the Trump administrations hostility have left the country in desperate straits. The unilateral US withdrawal from the JCPOA and its reimposition of sanctions are strangling the countrys economy: the World Bank estimates that it shrank by almost 9% last year. Inflation and unemployment have soared. Europes efforts to shore up the deal have yet to offer relief; they must continue.

The frustrations found an outlet in Novembers brutally suppressed protests the third outbreak of unrest in as many years and have only grown since then. The shooting down of a Ukrainian passenger plane, which Iran denied for days before admitting responsibility, prompted fresh protests and further exposed the rifts between and within the countrys institutions. Now a coronavirus outbreak, the deadliest outside China, is spreading in a country where the health system is already under immense strain due to sanctions. It will also deepen economic woes: on Sunday, Pakistan and Turkey announced they were closing their borders and Afghanistan said it was suspending all travel to and from the country.

Domestic incompetence and corruption have unquestionably contributed to the hopelessness that so many Iranians feel today. But it is above all the Trump administrations choices in walking out of the JCPOA, imposing punishing sanctions and assassinating General Suleimani, arguably the second most powerful man in the country after the supreme leader which have tightened the grip of hardliners and strengthened the belief that cultivating its nuclear programme and its proxies is a better bet than counting on meetings with western diplomats. A vital opportunity has been squandered, and Iranians are paying the price. Others may do so too.

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The Guardian view on Irans elections: a closing door - The Guardian

Turkey and Pakistan close borders with Iran over coronavirus deaths – The Guardian

Turkey and Pakistan have both closed their borders with Iran, with Turkey also halting incoming flights, in an effort to stop the potential spread of coronavirus after Iran reported 43 cases of the disease.

All highways and railways were closed at the border between Turkey and Iran as of 5pm local time and flights from Iran had been suspended, the Turkish health minister, Fahrettin Koca, said on Sunday. Flights from Turkey to Iran were still being allowed.

A provincial official in Pakistan and the countrys Frontier Corps also confirmed that it had sealed its land border with Iran.

Parts of Iran face lockdown as part of Iranian attempts to control the spread of Covid-19, which has killed eight people in Iran. If the situation gets any worse city staff will be expected to convert to teleworkers, said the mayor of Tehran, Pirouz Hanachi.

The World Health Organization is recommending that people take simple precautions to reduce exposure to and transmission of the Wuhan coronavirus, for which there is no specific cure or vaccine.

The UN agencyadvisespeople to:

Despite a surge in sales of face masks in the aftermath of the outbreak of the coronavirus outbreak, experts are divided over whether they can prevent transmission and infection. There is some evidence to suggest that masks can help prevent hand-to-mouth transmissions, given the large number of times people touch their faces. The consensus appears to be that wearing a mask can limit but not eliminate the risks, provided they are used correctly.

The Foreign and Commonwealth Office has advised UK nationals to leave China where possible. It is also warning that travellers from Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand who develop symptoms of cough or fever or shortness of breath within 14 days of returning the UK should contact the NHS by phone.

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The Iranian authorities have also been fighting an information war amid widespread distrust on social media about whether the public is being told the truth about the scale of the outbreak.

Irans supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claimed Tehrans enemies were spreading mistrust and blamed western scare stories for the low turnout in parliamentary elections on Friday.

The first confirmed death from the virus in the Middle East was reported last Wednesday in the city of Qom, about an hours drive from Tehran. The number of people on the streets of the capital has been noticeably lower than usual, with many shops shut and face masks in short supply and increasingly expensive.

The authorities have introduced increasingly drastic measures in Tehran and 13 provinces, including the closure of schools, universities, cinemas and theatres. Public buses in Tehran have been disinfected, and posters put up urging people to clean their hands and not shake those of others.

The citys school system has been shut for a minimum of two days to allow for disinfection spraying. There was also widespread advice to stay home and avoid places where people congregate. Some football matches were cancelled. Metro stations were not shut, but water fountains and shops were all being closed. The council said it was also taking new steps to dispose of waste.

At the airport, roughly a third of passengers were wearing masks, but there were no special controls on people leaving the country. Turkey, Iraq and Pakistan have either closed borders or are imposing extra health checks.

Despite the precautions the vast majority were carrying on with their daily lives as normal.

Some of the families of those that have died in Qom claim to know of no contact with anyone in China, prompting claims that this may be an indigenous disease. The health minister, Saeed Namaki, denied this, saying one victim traded in China and had travelled there indirectly. The strain discovered in Iran matched that in China, he said.

He has recommended no travel to or from Qom, as well as promising to distribute free coronavirus packages to residents in the area, including masks and educational brochures.

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Turkey and Pakistan close borders with Iran over coronavirus deaths - The Guardian

Iran Health Minister Who Played Down Coronavirus Threat Tests Positive for It – The Daily Beast

Irans deputy health ministerwho on Monday denied accusations that the government was hiding the true extent of the coronavirus outbreak in the countryhas reportedly tested positive for the sickness. Its just one day since Minister Iraj Harirchi publicly denied reports that the virus had killed 50 people in the city of Qom, saying that if even a quarter of that number had lost their lives to the virus then he would resign. Irans health ministry confirmed Tuesday that Harirchi had tested positive for the novel coronavirus and has now been placed in quarantine. Meanwhile, hundreds of guests have been told not to leave a Spanish hotel after a visiting Italian doctor tested positive for coronavirus. The H10 Costa Adeje Palace Hotel on Tenerife, one of Spains Canary Islands, informed guests Tuesday morning that they had to stay in their rooms until further notice.

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Iran Health Minister Who Played Down Coronavirus Threat Tests Positive for It - The Daily Beast