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An Ambitious Expansion

The depth of Irans ties to the Taliban burst unexpectedly into view last year. An American drone struck a taxi on a desert road in southwestern Pakistan, killing the driver and his single customer.

The passenger was none other than the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour. A wanted terrorist with an American bounty on his head who had been on the United Nations sanctions list since before 2001, Mullah Mansour was traveling without guards or weapons, confident and quite at home in Pakistan.

The strike exposed for the second time since the discovery of Osama bin Laden in the Pakistani hill town of Abbottabad the level of Pakistans complicity with wanted terrorists. It was the first time the United States had conducted a drone attack in Pakistans Baluchistan Province, a longtime sanctuary for the Taliban but until then off limits for American drones because of Pakistani protests.

Yet even more momentous was that Mullah Mansour was returning from a trip to Iran, where he had been meeting Iranian security officials and, through Iran, with Russian officials.

Afghan officials, Western diplomats and security analysts, and a former Taliban commander familiar with Mullah Mansours inner circle confirmed details of the meetings.

Both Russia and Iran have acknowledged that they have held meetings with the Taliban but maintain that they are only for information purposes.

That the Taliban leader was personally developing ties with both Iran and Russia signaled a stunning shift in alliance for the fundamentalist Taliban movement, which had always been supported by the Sunni powers among the Arab gulf states and Pakistan.

But times were changing with the American drawdown in Afghanistan, and Mullah Mansour had been seeking to diversify his sources of money and weapons since taking over the Taliban leadership in 2013. He had made 13 trips to Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and one to Bahrain, his passport showed, but also at least two visits to Iran.

Set on expanding the Talibans sway in Afghanistan, he was also preparing to negotiate an end to the war, playing all sides on his terms, according to both Afghan officials with close knowledge of the Taliban and the former Taliban commander close to Mullah Mansours inner circle.

It was that ambitious expansionism that probably got him killed, they said.

Mansour was a shrewd politician and businessman and had a broader ambition to widen his appeal to other countries, said Timor Sharan, a former senior analyst of the International Crisis Group in Afghanistan who has since joined the Afghan government.

Mullah Mansour had been tight with the Iranians since his time in the Taliban government in the 1990s, according to Mr. Kohistani, the military analyst. Their interests, he and other analysts and Afghan officials say, overlapped in opium. Afghanistan is the worlds largest source of the drug, and Iran the main conduit to get it out.

Irans border guards have long fought drug traffickers crossing from Afghanistan, but Irans Revolutionary Guards and the Taliban have both benefited from the illicit trade, exacting dues from traffickers.

The main purpose of Mullah Mansours trips to Iran was tactical coordination, according to Bruce Riedel, a former C.I.A. analyst and fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. At the time, in 2016, the Taliban were gearing up for offensives across eight Afghan provinces. Farah was seen as particularly ripe fruit.

Iran facilitated a meeting between Mullah Mansour and Russian officials, Afghan officials said, securing funds and weapons from Moscow for the insurgents.

Mullah Mansours cultivation of Iran for weapons was done with the full knowledge of Pakistan, said the former Taliban commander, who did not want to be identified since he had recently defected from the Taliban.

He convinced the Pakistanis that he wanted to go there and get weapons, but he convinced the Pakistanis that he would not come under their influence and accept their orders, he said.

Pakistan had also been eager to spread the political and financial burden of supporting the Taliban and had encouraged the Talibans ties with Iran, said Haji Agha Lalai, a presidential adviser and the deputy governor of Kandahar Province.

On his last visit, Mullah Mansour traveled to the Iranian capital, Tehran, to meet someone very important possibly Irans supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said the former Taliban commander, who said he had gleaned the information from members of Mullah Mansours inner circle.

Mullah Mansour stayed for a week, also meeting with a senior Russian official in the town of Zahedan, said Mr. Lalai, who spoke with relatives of the Taliban leader.

He was almost certainly negotiating an escalation in Iranian and Russian assistance before his death, Mr. Lalai and other Afghan officials said, pointing to the increase in Iranian support for the Taliban during his leadership and since.

But the meeting with the Russians was apparently a step too far, Afghan officials say. His relations with Iran and Russia had expanded to the point that they threatened Pakistans control over the insurgency.

The United States had been aware of Mullah Mansours movements, including his ventures into Iran, for some time before the strike and had been sharing information with Pakistan, said Seth G. Jones, associate director at the RAND Corporation. Pakistan had also provided helpful information, he added. They were partly supportive of targeting Mansour.

Gen. John Nicholson, the United States commander of coalition forces in Afghanistan, said President Barack Obama had approved the strike after Mullah Mansour failed to join peace talks being organized in Pakistan.

Col. Ahmad Muslem Hayat, a former Afghan military attach in London, said he believed that the American military had been making a point by striking Mullah Mansour on his return from Iran.

When they target people like this, they follow them for months, he said. It was smart to do it to cast suspicions on Iran. They were trying to create a gap between Iran and the Taliban.

But if that was the intention, Mr. Lalai said, it has not succeeded, judging by the way the new Taliban leader, Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada, has picked up his predecessors work.

I dont think the contact is broken, he said. Haibatullah is still reaching out to Iran. They are desperately looking for more money if they want to extend the fight.

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Iran Gains Ground in Afghanistan as US Presence Wanes - New York Times

If there is one place in the world where the difference of opinion between Europe and the USA over how to deal with Iran will be most glaringly apparent, it will be in Tehran this Saturday. That is where Iran's re-elected president, Hassan Rouhani, will take the oath of office for his second term. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian will be among the guests at the ceremony. Germany will be represented by a deputy foreign minister.

Their appearance will stand in stark contrast to the attitude of the United States. Speaking in Saudi Arabia in May on his first foreign trip, US President Donald Trump said, "all nations of conscience must work together to isolate Iran." The attitude signals a serious threat to the so-called Iran nuclear deal signed just two years ago.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement to contain Iran's nuclear activities was the basis for that country's return to the international stage and its reintegration into the global economic system after years of harsh sanctions. The core of the nuclear deal: Iran commits to rolling back parts of its nuclear program, as well as allowing regular inspections thereof, and in return, related sanctions will be suspended and eventually lifted altogether.

So far, the agreement has worked. In six consecutive reports, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has certified that Iran is upholding its end of the bargain. Therefore, the EU sees the nuclear deal as a major step toward making the world safer and stopping nuclear proliferation.

Two years ago the nuclear agreement was celebrated on the streets of Tehran

Read more: Iran vows to continue missile program as tensions flare with US

'Majority wants to derail the nuclear deal'

The mood in the USA couldn't be more different. Sascha Lohmann, from the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), told DW that both the president and Congress are skeptical about the deal. "A broad majority is in favor of scrapping the deal or trying to renegotiate a better one. That means there is a great danger that things may soon change on the US end of the agreement in the very near future," says Lohmann.

The next opportunity to initiate such a change will come in October. The US president is obliged to inform Congress whether or not Iran is continuing to uphold the agreement every 90 days so that the body can decide whether or not to extend sanctions relief. Trump has already done so twice, albeit with discernible reluctance and with obvious displeasure over the approach of his own State Department. Meanwhile, the White House has assembled its own working group on Iran tasked with finding a way for Trump to impose new nuclear-related sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

Ali Vaez told DW that this fact leads him to fear that the Iran nuclear deal is in grave danger. An Iran expert from the International Crisis Group, Vaez says it is more than media reports claiming President Trump promises to refuse certifying Iranian compliance in October that concern him. When speaking with DW he added: "US government officials are openly calling for regime change in Iran." This also fits with Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports that CIA Director Mike Pompeo has set up a special Iran Mission Center.

The Iran Mission Center, a new department within the CIA, should put greater pressure on Iran

'If they don't let us in, boom'

In its article, the WSJ quoted anonymous US officials who said the CIA's activities mirrored the Trump administration's prioritization of Iran as a target for US agents. Pompeo has been a hawk on Iran for years and has harshly criticized the nuclear deal in the past.

But the deal is working as far as Republican Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee is concerned. Corker, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has lobbied against derailing the agreement. But his true intentions became clear in a recent interview with David Ignatius of the Washington Post (WaPo). "What you want is you want the breakup of this deal to be about Iran. You don't want it to be about the United States," said Corker. He also called for "radically enforcing" the agreement, for instance by demanding access to "various facilities in Iran. If they don't let us in, boom."

Sword dance and tweets

European allies, on the other hand, have shown no intention of following the US's lead. For Rolf Mtzenich, chairman of the German-Iranian parliamentary group in Germany's lower house, the Bundestag, the presence of European foreign policy representatives at Rouhani's inauguration sends a clear signal that Europe "intends to maintain its contract-based agreement with Iran." At the same time it sends the message that, "we want to continue to work in trusting cooperation with President Rouhani." In Mtzenich's opinion that is important because he sees Rouhani as a guarantor for Iran opening itself to the world "unlike other actors in Iran."

EU High Representative Mogherini is relentless in her promotion of the nuclear deal as well: She was the first foreign politician to congratulate Rouhani on his election victory, via Twitter and at the same time she used the opportunity to emphasize European willingness to work toward accomplishing the aims of the agreement.

'EU companies aren't regulated in Brussels but rather in Washington'

Should the USA actually break away from the JCPAO it would have far-reaching consequences even if other partners stuck with it. Those partners are the EU, Germany, France, the UK, China and Russia. The economic exchange that has finally been reignited could suffer greatly, as so-called secondary sanctions could hit European companies doing business with Iran. SWP Iran-expert Lohmann was very clear when speaking with DW: "We are faced with the problem that EU companies are not actually being regulated by Brussels, but rather by Washington. That is why big companies have openly said: US sanctions are the determining factor for us. Even if we have no legal consequences to fear from the European side, we still won't do business with Iran. We are too scared of violating US sanctions."

Read more here:
Europe and USA on a collision course over Iran nuclear deal - Deutsche Welle

Leading Iraqi Shi'ite clerics are calling for the disbandment of powerful Iran-backed Shi'ite militias now that the nation has retaken its second-largest city, Mosul, from the Islamic State extremist group.

Muqtada al-Sadr, an anti-American firebrand with a large following among Baghdad's urban poor, on August 4 called for the disbandment of Hashed al-Shaabi, a paramilitary organization with an estimated 122,000 troops dominated by Iran-backed Shi'ite militias.

Sadr was speaking to thousands of supporters in Baghdad after a rare visit over the weekend to Iran's archrival Saudi Arabia, where he met with the Saudi crown prince.

In a speech broadcast on huge screens, Sadr urged Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi to dismantle the Hashed militias, or Popular Mobilization Forces, and "integrate into the army the disciplined members," AFP reported.

Sadr also called on the authorities to "seize the arsenal of all armed groups."

Sadr himself led a militia that fought against the U.S. occupation of Iraq in the last decade. But he is now seen as a nationalist who has repeatedly called for protests against corruption in the Iraqi government.

Another leading cleric calling for the disbandment of the Iran-backed militias is Shi'ite Sheikh Fadil al-Bidayr, who was one of the religious leaders who issued an urgent call to arms answered by the militias in 2014 when IS swept through northern and western Iraq and captured Mosul amid a collapse in the Iraqi Army.

"We always knew that Iran would use this [call to arms] to increase its own power in Iraq, but we had no other choice" at the time, Bidayri told AP.

Bidayri said that now that Mosul has been retaken and the Iraqi military has been partially rebuilt, he believes the Shi'ite militias should be disbanded, to curb Iranian influence in Iraq and reduce sectarian tensions.

The elderly sheikh, like much of Iraq's religious establishment in Najaf, is a staunch nationalist and wary of Iran's growing influence.

"From the very beginning...Iran used every opportunity to get involved in Iraq," he told AP. "Each time they used the protection of the Shi'ite people as an excuse."

The Hashed al-Shaabi is the largest Shi'ite paramilitary group and is nominally under Abadi's command. But some of its components have for years been sending fighters to support Syria in its six-year civil war with rebel groups.

The paramilitary force took part in the battle to liberate Mosu, and could join future operations aimed at routing the militants from areas of the country they still hold. IS still controls parts of western Iraq, including much of the desert province of Anbar.

While Sadr, Bidayri, and some other Iraqi political, religious, and military leaders say the Shi'ite militias must go, militia leaders say their sacrifices on the battlefield have earned them a permanent place in Iraq's security forces.

Although the Shi'ite militias did not play a central role in the battle to retake Mosul, they moved into the deserts held by IS west of the city, massing around the town of Tal Afar and retaking a border crossing between Iraq and Syria.

They also took control of highways bisecting the Sunni heartland in western Iraq and used as vital military and civilian supply lines.

In past fights against IS, including the operation to retake the cities of Tikrit and Fallujah, the Shi'ite militias were accused of sectarian killings and other abuses against minority Sunnis. Militia leaders acknowledged some abuses occurred but said those responsible have been disciplined.

"The Hashed will remain...and our relationship with Iran will remain," Hadi al-Amiri, a senior leader of the Badr Brigade, one of Iraq's most powerful Shi'ite militias, told AP.

Amiri said IS's insurgent capabilities will pose a long-term security threat to Iraq and his forces will have a continuing mission.

Iraq's prime minister has also repeatedly said he backs the Popular Mobilization Forces, telling reporters at a press conference last week that they "must remain at least for years, as the terrorism threat still exists."

Moreover, analysts say it's unlikely Iraqi security forces would be able to absorb all the militia factions.

See the article here:
Leading Iraqi Clerics Call For Dismantling Iran-Backed Shi'ite Militias - RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

Iranian President Hassan Rohani has been sworn in for his second term in an open parliament session in Tehran.

Speaking at a lavish ceremony attended by more than 100 foreign dignitaries on August 5, Rohani promised that his country will pursue a "path of coexistence and interaction with the world."

Among the guests was EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, who held a meeting with Rohani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif before the ceremony.

Rohani, 68, a moderate cleric who secured reelection on May 19, was formally endorsed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on August 3.

Rohani called the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers one of the greatest achievements of his government in the past four years. The landmark nuclear deal led to the lifting of most sanctions against Iran in return for curbs on its nuclear program.

Rohani warned the United States against undermining the nuclear deal and said "Iran will not be the first to violate the nuclear deal, but nor will it stay silent when the United States fails to respect its commitments.

Last month, Washington announced new sanctions over Irans missile program and alleged support for terrorist groups. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly described the nuclear deal as "bad" and during his election campaign vowed to dismantle it.

Rohani was first elected in 2013 with nearly 51 percent of the vote. He won 57 percent of the vote in Mays election after promising to build bridges with the outside world and create more jobs.

Iran's state media reported that more than 130 high-ranking officials from various countries and international organizations attended the swearing-in ceremony, a significant achievement for Iran, which has been largely isolated since the country's 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Top European officials present at the ceremony included French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, State Secretary at the German Foreign Ministry Michael Roth, and British Minister of State for the Middle East and North Africa Alistair Burt.

Some of Iran's oldest allies, including Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, also attended the ceremony.

Under Iranian law, Rohani will have two weeks to submit his cabinet to parliament for approval.

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Iran's President Rohani Sworn In For His Second Term In Office - RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

Amid new U.S. sanctions, North Korea's "No. 2" official began a 10-day visit to Iran on Thursday that could result in the two sides expanding their ties.

Iran's official IRNA news agency reported Kim Yong Nam, chairman of the Supreme Assembly of North Korea, arrived Thursday for the weekend inauguration ceremony for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

But given the head of North Korea's parliament is expected to stay for 10 days in Iran, the trip is being seen as a front for other purposes, including expanding military cooperation. At the same time, Pyongyang is looking for ways to counter sanctions and to boost the hard currency for Kim Jong Un's regime.

"There could be very problematic cooperation going on because of the past history and because it makes strategic sense, especially for Iran now," said Emily Landau, a senior research fellow at the Israeli-based Institute for National Security Studies and head of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program. INSS is an independent think tank affiliated with Tel Aviv University.

The man whom Iran described as the North's "No. 2" is believed to be traveling with a delegation of other officials from Pyongyang, including economic and military officials.

"For North Korea, it's not a question of ideology," Landau said. "It's not a question of being close politically and maybe in terms of any of their religious orientation. It's all about who can pay in hard cash. That's what makes North Korea a very dangerous source of nuclear technology, components and know-how."

Last month, Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo said in a speech at the Intelligence and National Security Alliance that he had "created two new mission centers aimed at focusing on putting a dagger in the heart of the Korean problem and the problem in Iran."

"Both the North Koreans and Iranians feel a serious threat from the United States and the West and sort of see each other as very different countries but facing a somewhat similar situation," said Matthew Bunn, a nuclear proliferation expert and professor of practice at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government.

In July, nuclear-armed North Korea conducted two tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile. Iran could have an ICBM capability similar to North Korea within a few years, as just last week it successfully launched a satellite-carrying rocket that some see as a precursor to long-range ballistic missile weapon capability.

"There's been fairly extensive cooperation on missiles," said Bunn. "And in fact, early generations of Iranian missiles were thought to be basically modestly adapted North Korean missiles."

For example, Tehran's Shahab-3 ballistic missile, capable of reaching Saudi Arabia from Iranian land, is based on technology from North Korea's Nodong-1 rockets. Iran's Ghadir small submarine, which in May conducted a cruise-missile test, is a vessel remarkably similar to those used by Pyongyang.

There's still a bit of a mystery on the nuclear side, but some former CIA analysts have previously said Iranian scientists have attended nuclear tests in North Korea. There have been recent reports North Korea may be preparing for its sixth nuclear test.

Tehran's hands are tied due to the international nuclear agreement, although there's a possibility it could quietly be teaming up with North Korea on nuclear research and doing it from the Korean Peninsula.

"The fact they are cooperating so closely on the missile realm is cause to believe that there could be even more cooperation going on even directly in the nuclear realm," said Landau, the Israeli-based national security expert.

Bunn, however, isn't so sure there's currently any collaboration on the nuclear side between the two regimes but said "there's a real danger potential" of it happening.

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North Korea's 'No. 2' official on 10-day visit to Iran that may signal wider military ties - CNBC