Archive for the ‘Iran’ Category

The Guardian view on Iran: the nuclear deal is not a disaster but scrapping it could be – The Guardian

Hassan Rouhani. Despite defeating his conservative rival by a landslide in Mays elections, opposition is ranged against him at home and abroad. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

When the Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, is sworn in again on Saturday, the EUs foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and ministers from Britain, France and Germany will be in Tehran to watch; an indication of how far relations with the west warmed in his first term. Yetashe embarks upon his second, he may feel the chill. Despite defeating his conservative rival by a landslide in Mays elections, opposition is ranged against him at home and abroad. The great domestic uncertainty he faces supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 78 and without aclear successor is for now overshadowed by Donald Trumps threat to pull out of the landmark nuclear deal signed in 2015.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors its implementation, says Iran is complying with the requirements to curb its nuclear programme and accept inspections in return for sanctions relief. But Mr Trump has vowed to overturn the Obama administrations stand-out foreign policy achievement. He has twice signed the sanctions waiver, but with extreme reluctance. He has asked aides to find a way to ditch the deal and says he expects Iran to be declared non-compliant next month. Officials say it has breached the pact in spirit.

Mr Rouhani promised that the agreement would bring prosperity. Irans economy is growing again; he has slashed inflation and stabilised the currency. But poverty has risen, a quarter of young people are unemployed, and foreign investment remains well below projections. Iranians have not yet felt the benefits they expected. Alongside the economic dissatisfaction run other concerns. Younger people especially want reform, and to see more women in government, and better links with the outside world. Meanwhile, the presidents hardline opponents, including the Revolutionary Guard and the judiciary, have portrayed the deal as a capitulation for little reward not least, because it challenges their vested interests. They sense opportunity; note the recent detention of Mr Rouhanis brother. Iranian presidents are usually weakened in their second term and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has fired a shot across the presidents bows by implying a parallel with Abolhassan Banisadr, a reformist removed from office early.

For now, Irans elite seems to be playing down divisions. That may make it harder for the US to push Tehran into abandoning the agreement, as Mr Trump apparently hoped. Iran says the US is breaching it by applying separate sanctions relating to missiles and human rights, but does not want to walk away. European parties to the deal want to shore it up; Frances Total signed a multibillion-dollar gas deal with Iran last month. But should the US pull out, secondary sanctions would hobble foreign companies seeking to do business with Iran.

Iran has much to answer for; most of all, assisting Bashar al-Assads crimes against his people in Syria. The countrys grim human rights record at home is further tarnished by the deteriorating health of opposition leaders Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, held under house arrest since the popular protests of 2011. Its elections are anything but free and fair yet they are competitive, meaningful and much more than most US allies in the region offer. No one could deny that Mr Rouhani is a very different president to his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. YetMr Trump greeted his re-election by throwing US weight more fully behind SaudiArabia in its struggle with Iran for regional hegemony.

American hostility can only bolster the isolationist, hardline forces ranged against Mr Rouhani; against the wishes and instincts of the Iranian people; against stability in the region and indeed against the interests of the US. Even defence secretary James Mattis who has defined the three gravest threats facing the US as Iran, Iran, Iran is among those pressing to maintain the deal. The president he serves calls the agreement a disaster. But Mr Trump is, as usual, wrong. It is scrapping it that could court catastrophe.

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The Guardian view on Iran: the nuclear deal is not a disaster but scrapping it could be - The Guardian

Trump keeps scaring investors away from Iran – CNNMoney

But a flood of major investment has not materialized -- and that's largely because of the United States.

More than two years have passed since Iran signed a landmark nuclear agreement with six world powers including the U.S. The deal allowed Tehran to get a handle on rampant inflation that resulted from years of crippling sanctions, and the country has dramatically boosted its oil production and exports.

Iran has been certified as being in compliance with the nuclear deal.

But foreign companies are still reluctant to invest because they fear the agreement could collapse.

"The train has left the station but its not moving at the pace that people expected," said Raul Heraud, head of financial services at strategic advisory firm Solidiance. "It is important to have a clear picture in terms of strategy of entering the market."

The U.S., which kept other sanctions on Iran in place even after the nuclear deal was signed, is the source of much of the investor anxiety.

President Trump has long promised a tough line on Iran -- including calls on the campaign trail to tear up or renegotiate the nuclear agreement, which he has described as "the worst deal ever."

On Wednesday, Trump signed into law new sanctions that target individuals associated with Iran's ballistic missile program. Tehran responded by saying the measures are designed to derail the 2015 nuclear agreement.

A trickle not a flood

Iran sits on 9% of the world's proven oil reserves and 18% of the planet's natural gas, according to data from BP (BP). And there has been a smattering of promising investments in the sector.

French oil giant Total and state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation last month signed a multi-billion dollar deal to further develop Iran's giant South Pars gas field. It was the first major Western investment since sanctions were eased.

"European oil and gas companies are still at the front of the queue. They are preferred by Iran for their technical and financial capabilities," said Homayoun Falakshahi a senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "The latest sanctions are slowing things down but not stopping interest from companies."

European firms may feel more confident because of the position of the European Union, which said last month that it would "stay committed in preserving and implementing" the nuclear deal and "expects all sides to keep the commitments they took two years ago."

Consumer goods makers are getting in on the act, too: Germany's Volkswagen (VLKAF) has also announced that it will sell cars in Iran for the first time in 17 years.

The deals require a tremendous amount of planning. Many international banks, for example, won't provide financing over fears of violating U.S. sanctions.

Related: Amazon says it might have violated U.S. sanctions on Iran

U.S. companies on the sidelines

American firms, meanwhile, have largely stayed away from Iran.

"We've seen European players enter the market, the U.S. unfortunately has to look from the sidelines and have to wait for their turn," said Heraud.

The only major exception is Boeing (BA), which has inked an $8 billion deal to sell 80 jets to Iran Air. It has another agreement to sell 30 airplanes to Aseman Airlines.

U.S. firms must receive special approval from the Treasury Department to do business in Iran.

"We have heard first hand from many companies who have applied ... that the process takes a long time and that many applicants are unsuccessful," said Karim El Assir of KPMG's corporate intelligence team.

Even successful applicants can't be sure that the policy sands won't shift. Just last week, for example, the Treasury Department slapped sanctions on six Iran-based satellite companies following an Iranian rocket launch.

Related: The ride-hailing app that rules Tehran's busy streets

High risk, high reward

Some companies are willing to take the risk.

"Although Iran epitomizes the high-risk, high-reward dilemma, there no doubt that many foreign companies will follow in what is still a relatively untrodden path," said Torbjorn Soltvedt, an analyst at the global risk consultancy firm Maplecroft.

But caution is still the name of the game.

"They are doing extensive due diligence," said Falakshahi from Wood Mackenzie.

In July, the Trump administration begrudgingly certified that Iran was continuing to comply with the terms of the nuclear deal. But it signaled more trouble ahead.

"The secretary of state -- and the president -- intends to emphasize that Iran remains one of the most dangerous threats to the U.S. and to regional security," a senior administration official said at the time.

"Moving forward, the administration intends to employ a strategy that will address the totality of Iran's malign behavior and not just focus on the nuclear deal," the official added.

CNNMoney (Dubai) First published August 3, 2017: 12:01 PM ET

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Trump keeps scaring investors away from Iran - CNNMoney

British husband appeals to Foreign Office to help free wife in Iranian jail – The Guardian

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who holds both British and Iranian passports, was arrested in April of last year. Photograph: Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe/PA

The British husband of a woman imprisoned in an Iranian jail has appealed to the Foreign Office to raise her case during a visit to Tehran this week.

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who holds British and Iranian passports, has decorated her cell with pictures from her infant daughter after being sentenced to five years in jail on secret charges last year, her husband told the Guardian.

Richard Ratcliffe, an accountant who lives in north London, hopes that the Foreign Office minister Alistair Burt will hold talks with senior Iranian politicians about the 38-year-old charity worker, who was arrested in April last year.

Burt is meeting Zaghari-Ratcliffes family and is due to attend the official swearing-in ceremony for the re-elected president, Hassan Rouhani, on Saturday.

Zaghari-Ratcliffe was arrested during a trip to Iran with her daughter, Gabriella, to visit family members. The daughter, who is now three, had her passport confiscated before it was returned. She is living with her grandparents in Iran and is allowed to see her mother twice a week.

Ratcliffe, 42, said his wife was finding the separation from her daughter especially difficult. He said he hoped Burt would insist on Zaghari-Ratcliffes rights as a British and Iranian passport holder.

Its one of the quirks of the law and UK policy about dual nationality, Ratcliffe said. Nazanin lives in Britain, she is British, her jobs here, her home is here. She is being held in part, or mainly, because she is British. The way in which you cant do anything about it because she is Iranian seems so counter-intuitive.

Ratcliffe has been campaigning for his wifes release since she was arrested at Tehran airport as she tried to leave the country at the end of her visit. She was accused of trying to topple the Iranian regime.

Iran hides behind dual nationality, said Ratcliffe. The reason they dont allow the British ambassador access to her is because, Oh, she is Iranian, which is a fiction, because the reason they took her is because she is British.

Ratcliffe has applied for an Iranian visa and is hoping to visit Gabriella and Zaghari-Ratcliffe.

I have promised Nazanin I wont do anything with Gabriella without her agreement, because of course the only thing Nazanin lives for at the moment is visits from her daughter. That is the worst thing at the moment, missing these months with her daughter. Nazanin has covered the walls of her cell with pictures drawn by Gabriella during the visits.

Zaghari-Ratcliffe has been imprisoned at Evin jail for several months and is suffering from mental health problems, as well as physical issues with her shoulder, neck, eyesight and teeth.

Ratcliffe said he had recently had a meeting with Burt, and hoped he would raise the issue during the visit. Labour MPs have criticised the lack of progress.

He was kind, said Ratcliffe. It feels like he cares. I do have a dispute with the Foreign Office that they are not pushing hard enough, and I have made that clear all along, but I do not doubt that he cares.

Ratcliffe said he remained hopeful that his wife would be released but said Foreign Office involvement would be critical. The Foreign Office are never optimistic, said Ratcliffe. They are just guarded.

Zaghari-Ratcliffe is not the only British-Iranian citizen in an Iranian prison. Kamal Foroughi, 77, is being held for alleged espionage. Both Foroughi and Zaghari-Ratcliffe have maintained their innocence.

Ahead of his trip, Burt said the UK was keen to maintain dialogue on issues including the detainees. He said: We hope to build further on improving UK-Iran relations during President Rouhanis second term.

The presidents personal commitment to the nuclear deal is welcome and it is vital both our countries work closely together to ensure the deal continues to be successfully implemented.

We are also keen to maintain dialogue on Irans regional policies, human rights and particularly our dual national detainees. Progress in all of these areas is important to the UK.

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British husband appeals to Foreign Office to help free wife in Iranian jail - The Guardian

Iran: US sanctions designed to derail nuclear deal – CNN

"The main purpose of the United States in implementing the sanctions against Iran is to destroy the JCPOA," Deputy Foreign Minister Sayed Abbas Araqchi said, referring to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the deal engineered between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, alongside Germany and the European Union.

He added that Tehran "will show a very clever reaction" to the imposition of sanctions.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi also warned that the "hostile" US measures would impact the implementation of the 2015 nuclear deal and said Tehran reserved the right to respond, according to state news agency IRNA.

"Iran with due patience and wisdom will take measure toward [its] national security and people's interests," he is quoted as saying.

President Donald Trump signed into law Wednesday morning legislation that levies new sanctions against Iran, alongside Russia and North Korea.

The bill seeks to ban anyone dealing with Iran's ballistic missile program from entering the US, and blocks transactions on properties held in the US by people associated with the program.

The Iran nuclear deal is designed to monitor and curtail Iran's nuclear program in exchange for economic sanctions relief. Some Iranian officials have suggested that the US posture is itself a violation of the nuclear pact.

Iran has yet to issue a formal response to the sanctions imposed by the US.

It's not clear what any retaliatory measures could be, since trade between the two nations is very limited and the US has no diplomatic presence in Iran. However, Iran could potentially use its influence in the region to thwart US foreign policy aims.

"Our friends and allies in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany join us in calling out and condemning Iran's destructive and threatening actions," she said.

"The world must not allow Iran to act in defiance of the Security Council and its resolutions. The United States will be vigilant in ensuring that Iran is held accountable for such behavior."

She also accused Iran of aiding terrorist groups such as Hezbollah.

The country's ballistic missile program and alleged state sponsorship of terrorism are two items not covered by the nuclear deal.

Trump, on the campaign trail and since taking office, has frequently railed against the nuclear deal.

Trump has long promised he would take a tough line on Iran -- including his calls on the campaign trail for the US to tear up or renegotiate the agreement, which he has decried as "the worst deal ever."

At that time, the Trump administration coupled its certification to Congress of Iran's compliance with a blistering critique of Iran's non-nuclear activities, saying Iran was "unquestionably in default of the spirit" of the deal.

"The secretary of state -- and the President -- intends to emphasize that Iran remains one of the most dangerous threats to the US and to regional security," a senior administration official said after the deal was re-certified.

"Moving forward, the administration intends to employ a strategy that will address the totality of Iran's malign behavior and not just focus on the nuclear deal," the official said at the time, foreshadowing the sanctions bill.

Deputy Foreign Minister Araqchi's response came as Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was endorsed by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for his second term after being re-elected in a landslide in May.

Speaking at the endorsement ceremony, Khamenei told the senior officials present to stand up against "any hegemonic power" and labeled the United States "the most aggressive" of all.

"Decades of international relations show us that the price of surrendering to such powers is much heavier than the expense that we pay for being independent of them," he said.

Rouhani brokered the deal with then-US President Barack Obama in 2015, alongside other world leaders and multinational groups.

In Tehran, Arash Asgiari, a 28-year-old hospitality worker, told CNN that sanctions relief after the nuclear deal two years ago improved his livelihood, in part because more foreigners have access to his business.

"My life has improved financially. I am paid better. I see many foreigners coming to Iran. My business is more prosperous," Asgiari said Thursday.

But said he doesn't trust the United States, citing its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"I don't believe the US wants to improve things here," he said. "Look at Iraq. ... Look at Afghanistan -- they destroyed it."

CNN's Euan McKirdy wrote from Hong Kong and Nick Paton Walsh reported from Tehran. CNN's Sara Mazloumsaki and Hamdi Alkhshali contributed to this report.

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Iran: US sanctions designed to derail nuclear deal - CNN

Briton hopes talks will trigger wife’s release from prison in Iran – Sky News

The husband of a British-Iranian woman imprisoned in Tehran has spoken of his hopes for her freedom, as a senior Foreign Office minister visits the country.

Alistair Burt will hold talks with senior Iranian politicians and is set to raise the cases of dual national detainees including Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and Kamal Foroughi.

Ms Zaghari-Ratcliffe is serving a five year jail term in the capital for allegedly plotting to topple the country's government - a charge she has repeatedly denied.

She was arrested at Tehran Airport in April last year while visiting family in Iran with daughter Gabriella.

Her husband, Richard Ratcliffe, told Sky News of his hopes that Mr Burt's talks would lead to her freedom.

Mr Ratcliffe said he hoped the politician "raises her case as much as possible, presses the Iranian government that this situation cannot continue, and that she's innocent and should be released".

He said he believed the UK government "sincerely cared" about the case.

But he also complained ministers had never spoken out and criticised her treatment, never said she was innocent and never publicly called for her release.

She has been held alone at Evin prison for the past nine months but Mr Ratcliffe said he had recently been able to talk to her on the phone every week.

He said she was in a "fragile state" and has seen a psychiatrist who diagnosed she has advanced depression.

Mr Ratcliffe said: "She's been talking in very dark terms about what she might do.

"My job is to keep campaigning and to keep her knowing we're all rooting for her, she's not forgotten and we'll try to bring her home as soon as possible."

Mr Foroughi, 77, is held in the same jail for alleged espionage in Iran. He has strenuously maintained his innocence.

He was detained in 2011 before being convicted of espionage and possessing alcohol two years later.

His son, Kamran Foroughi, told Sky News: "I am always grateful for the UK Government's intervention. The longer this goes on, the more worried we are about my dad's health.

"It's very unclear to us what sort of physical state he is in. He sounds okay on the phone...but at that age anything can happen very quickly."

Roya Nobakht is another British-Iranian being held in Evin prison.

She was jailed for five years in 2013 for making anti-government comments on Facebook.

Amnesty International UK warned the Government it must "significantly raise its game" over those being held.

Ahead of his trip Mr Burt said the UK was "keen to maintain dialogue" on issues including the detainees.

He said: "We hope to build further on improving UK-Iran relations during President Rouhani's second term."

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Briton hopes talks will trigger wife's release from prison in Iran - Sky News