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Anyone who thinks that the recent protests in 100 cities throughout Iran were about gas prices did not pay attention to what the protesters were saying. The immediate spark that led to the Arab Spring was the 2010 self-immolation of a Tunisian fruit vendor, but the Arab Spring revolution was not about Tunisian citizens ability to obtain permits to sell fruit. Likewise, this unrest in Iran was not about the price of gas. Iranian protesters (and rioters) chanting No to Gaza, no to Lebanon! Leave Syria and think of us, and even Death to Palestine! indicates that something much larger than the price of gas drove their outrage.

Forty years after the Islamic Revolution, substantial numbers of Iranians are finally rejecting the priorities of their masters.

When Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini consolidated power in Iran for himself in 1979, he risked being accused of a sin that Islamists of all stripes object to in any non-Sharia government making partners with Allah, something specifically prohibited by the Koran (see 3:64, 12:40 and 42:41, for example).This accusation is especially relevant to democracies. As Abu al-Ali al-Mawdudi, founder of the Jamaat-e-Islami, one of the first Islamist organizations, put it: Democracy is the deification of man. Or, as current al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri put it: Democracies raise up gods, establish masters and assign partners to Allah Most High.

So Khomeini established the velayat-e-faqih (governance of the jurist), which allowed him to pretend that Iran was controlled by divine, rather than human, laws.The premise is that Khomeinis hand-picked jurors (the mullahs), under the watchful eye of the Rahbar (Supreme Leader) Khomeini, were simply guiding the country until the 12th imam comes out of hiding to usher in the end of times. In the meantime, to placate the peoples clamoring for freedom, Khomeini established a parliament and president. There would be elections and the guise of competition, but no one would be permitted to run for office without approval from the mullahs. This arrangement created the illusion of democracy while maintaining clerical control.

Iranian democracy is like a landscape painted onto a concrete wall in a zoo.Artists skilled in trompe loeil mimic a jungle landscape on the walls of the lion cage, or a polar landscape for a penguin enclosure, with the aim of calming the beasts through a feeling of openness and freedom.But any lion who charges into the concrete jungle or any penguin that leaps into the nearby ocean quickly learns the cruel lesson of his captivity.The Iranian people seem to have realized that they are not free and that their version of democracy is an illusion.

The first indications of their dissatisfaction with the theocracy for which they traded the shah came in the summer of 1999 when university students protested for days, demanding better conditions and greater freedoms. After 9/11 video of spontaneous demonstrations against al Qaeda and terrorism emerged, people with candles and handmade American flags shouted Down with terrorists! in cities across Iran. Eventually those demonstrations subsided, only to be followed by the so-called soccer protests of 2003 where people used the excuse of their teams loss or victory in assemblies that quickly turned into anti-regime demonstrations.

But it was not until the Green Movement of 2009 that the Iranian people turned their attention to the faade of Iranian democracy. Public demonstrations erupted when former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi did not win the presidential election and the mullahs made sure that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad emerged victorious. Mousavi, perhaps a genuine reformer, had slipped through the mullahs selection process. Today he lives under house arrest. Since President Obama spent 2009 courting the mullahs for his 2015 nuclear deal, he not only looked the other way but ordered the CIA to sever contacts with the dissidents supporting and controlling the nascent revolution.

Things are different now. During the height of the recent protests, Secretary of State Mike PompeoMichael (Mike) Richard PompeoHouse leaders: Trump administration asking South Korea to pay more for US troops 'a needless wedge' Trump clarifies US support for Iranian protesters after confusion over previous comment What Congress can't get, the people can: Trump documents are damning and there are more to come MORE tweeted: After 40 years of tyranny, the proud Iranian people are not staying silent about their governments abuses. We will not stay silent either. I have a message for the people of Iran: The United States hears you. The United States supports you. The United States is with you.

In 2009, protesters chanted, Where is my vote? and Give us our votes back. Now there are reports of people shouting, We dont want the ayatollahs! and Death to the dictator! and of people pulling down anti-American banners and billboards. Rioters have burned government buildings, banks and police stations. November 2019 in Iran looked like the revolutionary zeal that brought down Mohammad Reza Pahlavis reign over 40 years ago except now the anger is directed at those responsible for taking down the shah. In fact, some protesters reportedly shouted: Oh, Shah of Iran, come back to Iran.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani may have pronounced the protests over and his regime victorious, but he shouldnt rest too easily. Even President TrumpDonald John TrumpTop Democrat: 'Obstruction of justice' is 'too clear not to include' in impeachment probe Former US intel official says Trump would often push back in briefings Schiff says investigators seeking to identify who Giuliani spoke to on unlisted '-1' number MOREs critics concede that his maximum-pressure sanctions are causing serious pain in Iran, and many believe the regime is in the greatest danger of falling since its inception.

Every day that people openly defy the mullahs in the streets of Iran makes it harder for the clerics to maintain control. If the anti-regime protests continue throughout the winter, can a Persian Spring be far behind?

A.J. Caschetta is a Ginsburg-Ingerman fellow at the Middle East Forum and a principal lecturer at the Rochester Institute of Technology.

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Iranian protests were not about the price of gas | TheHill - The Hill

Iranian pro-government protesters burn an U.S. flag as they attend a demonstration in Tehran, Iran November 25, 2019. (Nazanin Tabatabaee/WANA (West Asia News Agency via REUTERS)Faced with the Trump administrations maximum pressure campaign and unexpected protests at home, Irans regime is fighting back from Gaza to Kabul.

Two days before Thanksgiving, as President Donald Trump was preparing his surprise visit to U.S. troops in Afghanistan, Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif phoned Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah and met with a delegation from the Taliban. The object of both discussions was to pressure U.S. and its allies: Zarif told the Talibanrepresentatives that Iran wants a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, and offered al-Nakhalah Irans full support for PIJs valiant resistance against Israel.

Irans decisions to push the Palestinians to fight Israel and to encourage the Taliban are part of a regional policy that seeks to evict the U.S. from the Middle East and stir up trouble for Washington worldwide. This is Tehrans answer to the maximum pressure campaign of economic sanctions that the Trump administration has mounted since pulling the U.S. out ofPresident Obamas Iran nuclear dealin May 2018.

Iran fought its multi-front war against the U.S. in multiple ways. In the Persian Gulf, it twice struck at foreign oil tankers over the summer, shot down a high-tech U.S. drone in late June, and launched drone and cruise-missile attacks on key Saudi oil facilities in September. It is also seeking to use its terrorist proxies in the Gaza Strip to provoke Israel into a wider regional war. In the fall of 2018, Israel accused Iran ofordering PIJ to attackfrom Gaza. The Palestinian terrorist group has thousands of missiles and fighters in Gaza, but is smaller than Hamas. Its leadership lives abroad and keeps in close contact with Iran, which supports it even though its made up of Palestinian Sunni Muslims. (In general, Iran tends to work with Shiite groups such as Hezbollah.) Israel was concerned throughout thesummer of 2019 that PIJmight be trying to push it into a war in Gaza to distract it from Irans efforts to gain a permanent foothold in Syria and supply Hezbollah withprecision-guidedrockets. In response, Israel struck a PIJ commander onNovember 12, prompting the group to fire over 400 missiles over the Gaza border.

Evidence for how important the Palestinian group is to Iran comes from two phone calls that Zarif made after the November 12 battles. Irans Mehr News reported that Zarifcongratulated al-Nakhalahon November 17. Then Zarifcalled againon November 25. Irans message was clear: Keepthe pressureon Israel.

At the same time, Iran was also looking 1,900 miles away from the Gaza Strip, to Afghanistan. In the 1990s, Iran and the Taliban were onopposite sides of the war in Afghanistan, to the point where Iran almost invaded the country in 1998. Once the U.S. invaded to dislodge al-Qaeda after 9/11, Iran began to reconsider its antipathy toward the Taliban. The Islamic Republic now hopes to push the U.S. out of Afghanistan by whatever means are necessary and fill the resulting power vacuum. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has accused Tehran of being behinda May suicide bombing in Kabul. Peace talks withthe Taliban and the U.S. broke down in September, and Trumps Thanksgiving visit notwithstanding, Iran believes the U.S. is leaving Kabuland hopes to hasten the process.

As Iran works with PIJ and the Taliban, it also seeks to pressure the U.S. in the Gulf, in Iraq, in Syria, and in Lebanon. In Iraq, it hopes its allies in parliament and among various Shiite militias will force the U.S. to withdraw; militia mortar and rocket attacks have hit U.S. bases in the countryevery month since May. In Syria, Iran-backed militias allied withBashar al-Assads regimeare facing U.S. forces across the Euphrates, and would like tograb the oil facilitiesthat the U.S. is currently protecting. In Lebanon, Irans proxyHezbollah wantscontrol over the choice of the countrys next prime minister.

The Iranian regime is facing maximum pressure from the U.S. and suddenly finds itself squeezed at home, too, forced to brutally crack down on massive recent protests against a large gas-price hike. Its response has been to challenge the U.S. and American allies across thousands of miles of terrain from Kabul to Gaza. While it is cornered, it should not be underestimated.

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Irans Multi-Front War against America and Its Allies - National Review

Key point:Tehran's new "stealth" fighter is anything but.

Tensions have escalated in the Persian Gulf region in the aftermath of U.S. president Donald Trumps decision unilaterally to withdraw the United States from the agreement limiting Irans nuclear program.

The U.S. military has implicated Iranian agents in several summer 2019 attacks on civilian ships sailing near Iran. The U.S. Navy sent the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and her strike group to the region. The U.S. Air Force deployed B-52 bombers and F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters.

If war breaks out, American forces likely will attempt to secure Gulf air space by destroying or suppressing Irans air forces. The regular Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force and the air wing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps militia together operate around 700 aircraft, including around two dozen U.S.-made F-14s.

One thing U.S. forces wont have to worry about is an Iranian stealth fighter. The Islamic republics supposedly radar-evading Qaher 313 fighter was nothing but a cheap mock-up when it first rolled out in early 2013. It was still a cheap mock-up when it appeared again in public in 2017.

Irans then-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ahmad Vahidi, then the countrys defense minister, unveiled the Qaher 313 at a staged event in February 2013. Officials claimed the plane could carry two 2,000-pound bombs or at least six air-to-air missiles.

But the sleek, single-engine, single-seat aircraft with the non-stealthy front canards and anhedral wingtips seemed off. Video footage of an alleged test flight likewise was unconvincing and clearly involved a small-scale drone. Photographs depicting the Qaher 313 in flight over snow-capped mountains obviously were forgeries.

Journalist Steve Weintz scrutinized the purported Iranian stealth fighter in the most old-fashioned way possible. He built a scale model of the plane using a kit from boutique model-maker Fantastic Plastic. In so doing, he discovered that there literally isnt enough space under the Qaher 313s wings for the bombs and missiles Iranian officials claimed the plane could carry.

He asked David Cenciotti, editor of The Aviationist website, to assess the model.

Story continues

Read the original article.

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Why Iran's 'Stealth' Qaher 313 Is Nothing to Fear - Yahoo News

In the two weeks since protests broke out in Iran following a 50% hike in gasoline prices, demonstrations have claimed the lives of at least 208 people as government security forces disappear thousands of dissidents and gun down protestors in the streets.

In the Tri-Cities, outrage in response has been swift as many residents of Iranian descent have relatives in Iran who have been affected by the protests. Along with North Vancouver, the Tri-Cities hosts one of the largest concentrations of Persian-speakers outside of Iran.

In all the years that Coquitlam resident Majid Mahichi has lived in Canada, he says he has never seen such solidarity among a population that is often divided by deep political divisions. Some who have fled Iran and settled in the Tri-Cities remain leftist or atheists, others still support the deposed monarch, and still more back the current regime.

We have a complicated community. Different people, said Mahichi. For more than 20 years, Ive never seen these people get together and share their ideas, get on the mic and find some common ground.

In footage shot by Mahichi and his colleagues (hes the owner of the local Iranian television channel Parvaz TV), at least 100 protestors gathered on the steps of the Vancouver Art Gallery at a Nov. 24 demonstration in a show of solidarity with protestors in Iran, one speaker after another railing against the worst crackdown in modern Iranian history.

It doesnt matter how you think. It doesnt matter with which group you belong. We can get together and be one voice Being the voice of people who are suffering now, said Tri-City resident Mahboubeh Mojtahedi, a former political prisoner who MCed the demonstration and said her husband was killed by the regime during a crackdown in the late 80s.

Theres a part of our souls that is in Iran and will remain in Iran, said another speaker, a self-proclaimed monarchist who grew up in a leftist family and immigrated to Canada four years ago. What I suggest is that all of us, of all of beliefs, come together.

Mahichi said the sudden openness to work across political fault-lines that have long divided the Iranian expat community shows just how bad this moment is.

We just found that we can work together seriously, he told The Tri-City News. We want to continue.

But while many among the protestors wore masks to hide their identities for fear they or their family would be targeted by the Iranian government, others have remained outspoken critics.

Fred Soofi, a local restaurateur who emigrated from Iran to Canada about 35 years ago, is one of several residents demanding the Canadian government do more to condemn the regimes actions, both in Iran and at home in Canada.

In August, Soofi was part of a small group that raised bail money in an orchestrated escape of Canadian resident Said Malekpour from an Iranian prison. Out on a few days bail to visit his mother in Tehran, Malekpour was whisked into an undisclosed third country by a group of smugglers; he then had his Canadian papers fast-tracked by the local embassy and within a few days landed in Vancouver, reunited with his sister.

Since the crackdown in Iran began two weeks ago, Soofi has only ramped up his organizing, gathering more than 100 signatures for a petition that he presented to Liberal MP Ron McKinnon (Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam) Monday, Dec. 2. It demands that the Canadian government issue a statement explicitly supporting Iranian protestors and putting the regime on notice that it will be held criminally responsible for any human rights violations; that Ottawa apply any political pressure it can on the regime to open up the internet; and that it declare the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps blamed with some of the worst recent violence a terrorist organization.

At home, Soofi has called on the government to investigate Iranians in Canada working on behalf of the regime. A day before the protest at the art gallery, Soofi attended an BC NDP convention held in Victoria where he called on all levels of government to address alleged money laundering by those affiliated with the Iranian government.

Since the protests broke out, Ottawa has warned anyone considering visiting Iran to exercise a high degree of caution due to crime, demonstrations, the regional threat of terrorism and the risk of arbitrary detention.

The Global Affairs travel advisory also warns Canadians, particularly dual Canadian-Iranian citizens, of the risk of being arbitrarily questioned, arrested and detained.

There are safety concerns closer to home, too.

Soofi, who has never returned to his homeland since immigrating to Canada and has no family there, said his criticism appears to have captured the attention of Canadas spy agency. According to Soofi, an agent from the Canadian Security and Intelligence Agency (CSIS) contacted him about three weeks ago requesting a meeting.

They know me. They monitor us. They know Im active. And they know theres a lot of Iranians affiliated with the government in this area, he told The Tri-City News.

Soofi said he told the agent (and later McKinnon) about his concerns regarding Iranian money laundering in Metro Vancouver and detailed his role in freeing Malekpour. And when she asked him whether he had received any threats, he told her not yet.

Im not afraid because I want to say the truth, he said.

Unlike the threat to protestors on the streets of his native Iran, Soofi says that for someone in his position, having a spy agency like CSIS look over your shoulder is a relief.

I feel more comfortable now," he said. "I know theyre watching."

In an email to The Tri-City News, a spokesperson for CSIS said the services mandate is to protect Canadians from threats to national security at home and abroad but we do not publicly comment, or confirm or deny, the specifics of our investigations, methodologies or activities.

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Brutal Iran crackdown reverberates in the Tri-Cities - The Tri-City News

In a sudden reversal, Turkey is now ok with NATOs Baltic defense plan. Thats the word from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who said today in London that Turkeys President Recep Erdogan has dropped his threat of refusing to support an alliance-wide plan to defend the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland from possible invasion by Russia. It was an unusual threat from a NATO ally, and alliance officials made it public last week in remarks to Reuters.

What Erdogan wanted in return for supporting Baltic defense: For fellow NATO nations to recognize the Kurdish YPG in Syria which is a U.S.- and coalition-backed militia fighting ISIS as a terrorist group, and to do it in some sort of formaldocument.

What Turkey got: Unclear just yet. But U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper was asked Tuesday if he would support, as Reuters writes, branding the YPG as terrorists in order to break the deadlock. Esper replied, I wouldnt support that. Were going to stick to our positions, and I think NATO will aswell.

U.S. President Donald Trump spoke to Erdogan today in an unannounced meeting that lasted about 30 minutes, according to Erdogans office, which released photos before the White House shared any details with the press. According to the Whitie House, the two men discussed the importance of Turkey fulfilling its alliance commitments, further strengthening commerce through boosting bilateral trade by $100 billion, regional security challenges, and energy security. A bit more from Politico, here.

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By the way: We wont be doing a press conference at the close of NATO because we did so many over the past two days, Trump tweeted this morning. (Politico called it an abrupt cancellation after tense exchanges with world leaders. More on those tensions in the bulletsbelow.)

So whats the alliances message to the world on its 70th anniversary? NATO guarantees the security of our territory and our one billion citizens, our freedom, and the values we share, including democracy, individual liberty, human rights, and the rule of law, according to the alliances London Declaration, which was releasedtoday.

The rest of the nine-point document reaffirms Article 5, the two-percent defense investment guidelines, references Russias aggressive actions, cyber and hybrid threats, irregular migration, challenges to the rules-based international order, the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, commitment to keeping in place NATOs Open Door policy, 5G security, and Chinas growing influence and internationalpolicies.

Here are some of todays headlines summarizing developments inLondon:

Russian Trolls Are Hammering Away at NATOs Presence in Lithuania // Patrick Tucker: A broad disinformation campaign of fake news and other tricks aims to turn the Baltic nations public against thealliance.

NATO Should Count Spending on Secure 5G Towards Its 2% Goals // Lindsay Gorman: Getting 5G right is key to the alliances veryfuture.

NATOs Newest Threat Is Coming From Inside the House / Kevin Baron: Worry less about the gaps between NATO leaders, and more about the gap between those leaders and the national securitycommunity.

Three Tweaks to Foster Innovative Defense Products / Jeff Decker: Even the Pentagon cant lavish billionaire-level cash on every promising tech startup but it can make several moves thathelp.

Welcome to this Wednesday edition of The D Brief from Ben Watson. If youre not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1941, the Chicago Tribune and the Washington Herald published secret U.S. plans to invade Europe and defeat Hitler in1943.

Pentagon officials say Iran may soon attack U.S. forces in the Middle East. Thats according to CNNs Barbara Starr, who tweeted around 6 p.m. on Tuesday: There is fresh intelligence in last month of a potential Iranian threat against US forces and interests in the Middle East according to several US defense and administration officials speaking to CNN.Where this comes from: Alleged evidence Iran has moved forces and weapons, though there was no indication at this time Iran regime has made any decision to attack U.S. forces.The Pentagons No. 3 official, John Rood, is saying that today, too, according to Reuters, which notes Rood did not provide details about what information he was basing that concern on or anytimeline.

Syrians say U.S. raid on Baghdadi also killed civilians. NPR: A Syrian farmer says his arm was blown off and his two friends were killed by U.S. helicopter fire in the village where American special forces were attacking the compound of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October. His account is supported by analysis of photos of shrapnel and of a damaged van.That belies a Pentagon statement that said special forces protected all of the non-combatants during the Oct. 26 raid.The U.S. military will review the incident, a defense official told NPR. Read on, here.

North Koreas leader hopped on a horse again, so the images are making their way across the interwebs quickly. AP puts them in context, here.

Iran, Russia and China finally announced joint naval exercises, according to Russias state-run TASS. The drills are expected to begin Dec. 22 and run through January 20. Writes the Washington Posts Liz Sly, who flagged the announcement on Twitter: Its been long promised; now theres a date. A potential challenge to the U.S. & a big boost forIran.

Anyone interested in a real spy story? Bellingcats Eliot Higgins this week flagged a new report from his fellow open-source sleuths all about how Russia recruited a hitman who murdered a Russian businessman in 2013, gave him a new identity, and then he was arrested in 2019 in Berlin for the murder of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili.Khangoshvili had previously fought alongside anti-Moscow separatists in Chechnya, Reuters reports today. Khangoshvili was shot twice in the head in a central Berlin park in August as he was heading to a mosque.Russias reax: This is absolutely groundless speculation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today.By the way: Germany just booted two Russian diplomats out of the country on allegations Russia is refusing to cooperate in the Khangoshvili investigation. More from Reuters, here.

ICYMI: A former Green Beret is running against a former SEAL in Virginia to unseat a former CIA agent in the House. AP has the story, here.

Former Marine officer, Rep. Duncan Hunter pleaded guilty Tuesday to one count of conspiracy in a case surrounding his alleged misuse of $250,000 in campaign donations for personal expenses such as family vacations and oral surgeries, ABC News reported after months of denials from the California Republican.Hunter said he pleaded guilty for his children. I think itd be really tough for them, he said. Its hard enough being the kids of a public figure, and I think its time for them to live life outside the spotlight. Story, here.

Do you want to end Americas endless wars? So does George Soros and Charles Koch. Politicos Brian Bender explains why a new think tank called the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft is opening today in Washington, here.

Lastly today in NCAA football,No. 25 Air Force is ranked for the first time since 2010. With Navy at No. 23, there are two service academies ranked at the same time for the first time since Oct. 14,1985.

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Turkey's Article 5 reversal; Russia's disinfo in Lithuania; NATO spending ideas; Iran-Russia-China plan naval wargames; And a bit more. - Defense One