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In a sudden reversal, Turkey is now ok with NATOs Baltic defense plan. Thats the word from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who said today in London that Turkeys President Recep Erdogan has dropped his threat of refusing to support an alliance-wide plan to defend the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland from possible invasion by Russia. It was an unusual threat from a NATO ally, and alliance officials made it public last week in remarks to Reuters.

What Erdogan wanted in return for supporting Baltic defense: For fellow NATO nations to recognize the Kurdish YPG in Syria which is a U.S.- and coalition-backed militia fighting ISIS as a terrorist group, and to do it in some sort of formaldocument.

What Turkey got: Unclear just yet. But U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper was asked Tuesday if he would support, as Reuters writes, branding the YPG as terrorists in order to break the deadlock. Esper replied, I wouldnt support that. Were going to stick to our positions, and I think NATO will aswell.

U.S. President Donald Trump spoke to Erdogan today in an unannounced meeting that lasted about 30 minutes, according to Erdogans office, which released photos before the White House shared any details with the press. According to the Whitie House, the two men discussed the importance of Turkey fulfilling its alliance commitments, further strengthening commerce through boosting bilateral trade by $100 billion, regional security challenges, and energy security. A bit more from Politico, here.

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By the way: We wont be doing a press conference at the close of NATO because we did so many over the past two days, Trump tweeted this morning. (Politico called it an abrupt cancellation after tense exchanges with world leaders. More on those tensions in the bulletsbelow.)

So whats the alliances message to the world on its 70th anniversary? NATO guarantees the security of our territory and our one billion citizens, our freedom, and the values we share, including democracy, individual liberty, human rights, and the rule of law, according to the alliances London Declaration, which was releasedtoday.

The rest of the nine-point document reaffirms Article 5, the two-percent defense investment guidelines, references Russias aggressive actions, cyber and hybrid threats, irregular migration, challenges to the rules-based international order, the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, commitment to keeping in place NATOs Open Door policy, 5G security, and Chinas growing influence and internationalpolicies.

Here are some of todays headlines summarizing developments inLondon:

Russian Trolls Are Hammering Away at NATOs Presence in Lithuania // Patrick Tucker: A broad disinformation campaign of fake news and other tricks aims to turn the Baltic nations public against thealliance.

NATO Should Count Spending on Secure 5G Towards Its 2% Goals // Lindsay Gorman: Getting 5G right is key to the alliances veryfuture.

NATOs Newest Threat Is Coming From Inside the House / Kevin Baron: Worry less about the gaps between NATO leaders, and more about the gap between those leaders and the national securitycommunity.

Three Tweaks to Foster Innovative Defense Products / Jeff Decker: Even the Pentagon cant lavish billionaire-level cash on every promising tech startup but it can make several moves thathelp.

Welcome to this Wednesday edition of The D Brief from Ben Watson. If youre not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1941, the Chicago Tribune and the Washington Herald published secret U.S. plans to invade Europe and defeat Hitler in1943.

Pentagon officials say Iran may soon attack U.S. forces in the Middle East. Thats according to CNNs Barbara Starr, who tweeted around 6 p.m. on Tuesday: There is fresh intelligence in last month of a potential Iranian threat against US forces and interests in the Middle East according to several US defense and administration officials speaking to CNN.Where this comes from: Alleged evidence Iran has moved forces and weapons, though there was no indication at this time Iran regime has made any decision to attack U.S. forces.The Pentagons No. 3 official, John Rood, is saying that today, too, according to Reuters, which notes Rood did not provide details about what information he was basing that concern on or anytimeline.

Syrians say U.S. raid on Baghdadi also killed civilians. NPR: A Syrian farmer says his arm was blown off and his two friends were killed by U.S. helicopter fire in the village where American special forces were attacking the compound of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October. His account is supported by analysis of photos of shrapnel and of a damaged van.That belies a Pentagon statement that said special forces protected all of the non-combatants during the Oct. 26 raid.The U.S. military will review the incident, a defense official told NPR. Read on, here.

North Koreas leader hopped on a horse again, so the images are making their way across the interwebs quickly. AP puts them in context, here.

Iran, Russia and China finally announced joint naval exercises, according to Russias state-run TASS. The drills are expected to begin Dec. 22 and run through January 20. Writes the Washington Posts Liz Sly, who flagged the announcement on Twitter: Its been long promised; now theres a date. A potential challenge to the U.S. & a big boost forIran.

Anyone interested in a real spy story? Bellingcats Eliot Higgins this week flagged a new report from his fellow open-source sleuths all about how Russia recruited a hitman who murdered a Russian businessman in 2013, gave him a new identity, and then he was arrested in 2019 in Berlin for the murder of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili.Khangoshvili had previously fought alongside anti-Moscow separatists in Chechnya, Reuters reports today. Khangoshvili was shot twice in the head in a central Berlin park in August as he was heading to a mosque.Russias reax: This is absolutely groundless speculation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today.By the way: Germany just booted two Russian diplomats out of the country on allegations Russia is refusing to cooperate in the Khangoshvili investigation. More from Reuters, here.

ICYMI: A former Green Beret is running against a former SEAL in Virginia to unseat a former CIA agent in the House. AP has the story, here.

Former Marine officer, Rep. Duncan Hunter pleaded guilty Tuesday to one count of conspiracy in a case surrounding his alleged misuse of $250,000 in campaign donations for personal expenses such as family vacations and oral surgeries, ABC News reported after months of denials from the California Republican.Hunter said he pleaded guilty for his children. I think itd be really tough for them, he said. Its hard enough being the kids of a public figure, and I think its time for them to live life outside the spotlight. Story, here.

Do you want to end Americas endless wars? So does George Soros and Charles Koch. Politicos Brian Bender explains why a new think tank called the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft is opening today in Washington, here.

Lastly today in NCAA football,No. 25 Air Force is ranked for the first time since 2010. With Navy at No. 23, there are two service academies ranked at the same time for the first time since Oct. 14,1985.

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Turkey's Article 5 reversal; Russia's disinfo in Lithuania; NATO spending ideas; Iran-Russia-China plan naval wargames; And a bit more. - Defense One

Feeling the heat, Iranian hard-liners are distancingthemselves from the government's fuel price hike.

The government announced Nov. 15 an important decision affectingdaily life in Iran: the rationing of gasoline and a subsequent increase in gas prices. Iranians have bitter memoriesof fuel price hikes.They considerit tantamount to a deterioration in their quality of life. Increases in gas prices have always led to increases in the costs of food and other necessities.

The government announced the price hike at midnight on Friday, while most people were asleep. The announcement caught people off guard. The public wasnt prepared to face it, and it caused outrage and anger. The timing of the announcement possibly designed to alleviate the exasperation and to prevent protests ultimately was not effective.

Meanwhile, the hard-liners launched an onslaught against the government, portraying President Hassan Rouhanias the man behind the people's misery, further provoking public irein order to possibly take down the incumbent president. State TV, controlled by hard-liners, also added fuel to the fire, urging people to turn away from Rouhani.

As the protests gain momentum, the institutions and organizations under hard-linercontrol distanced themselves from the fuel price hike. In a Nov. 16 statement, the influential Expediency Council addressed the people, saying that the council's secretary and chairman have never spoken in favor of raising gas prices. Yet the decision to raise fuel prices was made by the Supreme Council of Economic Coordination, formed upon the orderofSupreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The heads of the council judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi, parliamentary speaker Ali Larijaniand Rouhani, among others all favored the hike.Despite knowing this, the hard-liners sought to evoke disillusionment among the public on Rouhani and Reformists ahead of the 2020 parliamentary elections. The same council had also tasked state TV to persuade people on the "logic" behind the hike.

Khamenei's throwing his weight behind the council's decision didn't end the attacks on Rouhani. YousefTabatabaiNejad, thehard-line Friday prayer leader inEsfahan,addressed the government Nov. 22, saying,Why do you say the gasoline price hike won't lead to a rise in other things prices? Hard-line cleric Alireza Panahian also lashed out at Rouhani and Reformists, stating Nov.22,It is not clear who decided to raise the gasoline price. However, the protests grew bigger than the hard-liners had predicted, reaching at least 100 locations in the country,which was unprecedented in the past 40 years.

The recent protests are different than the protests of 2009,when people took to the streets after Reformistpresidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi declared that the ballots were rigged. Those protests had leaders and political goals. The protesters demands went beyond holding an election redo they targeted the political system itself. The 2019 events have no leader or specific goal.Nonetheless, the slogans were much harsher in 2009 than today.

The 2019 protests are an expression of deep-rooted anger and pain. The most important factor behind the protests is the dire economic situation,leading people not being able to make their ends meet, that followed the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and the governments mismanagement of the economy.The US embargo on Iranian oil sales the government's main source of revenue is what prompted Rouhani to raise gasprices to compensate for the budget deficit. Before the United States reimposed sanctions, Iran's economy had actually started to recover.

Apart from US sanctions, Iranians'rage has intensified as they witnessed more corruption scandals and increasing inequality. Adding to the pain and rage was the hard-liners campaign to disclose and magnify to some extent Reformists' and moderates' corruption.The hard-liners didnt realize that the public's distrust of Reformists and moderates didn't equate to a hard-liner victory. Many Iranians totally disagree with hard-liners on several issues,including restrictions on social and political freedoms, and would never join them.

The hard-liners campaign against Reformists hashad an alarming impact, as seen in recent protests.The protesters believe that neither hard-liners nor Reformists can represent them. Their distrust in both camps has grown. Thats why today's protesters have no leader, while in 2009 they pinned their hopes on Reformists like Mousavi and the late Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, whoboth acted as the opposition leaders.If the political establishment does not address the public's anger and demands, such protests will likely be triggered in the future over issues as basic as an increase in the price of eggs.

Sensing the trouble, the hard-liners are striving to find new faces for their camp to gain votes and popularity. Hard-line cleric PanahianstatedNov.22, No, we arent [part of the] Principlists," which is the name of the hard-line current in Iran. "We only think about the results. Don't let people[affiliate us] with Principlism. A statement fromprominent hard-line figureGholam-AliHaddadAdelclearly demonstrates how hard-liners are strivingto ride the public wave of anger. He said Nov. 23 that hard-liners are concentrating on how to solve people's economic troubles, emphasizing that prominent "economists" will be on their forthcoming electoral tickets.

Nonetheless, the hard-liners' attempts are in vain. Putting on new clothes, choosing new candidatesand even distancingthemselves from Iran's dire economic situation won't prompt Iranians who have lost all hope in Reformists to think of hard-liners as their new saviors.

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Iran How Iran's hard-liners tried to ride wave of protests - Al-Monitor

Paris, London and Berlin on Saturday welcomed six new European countries to the Instex barter mechanism, which is designed to circumvent US sanctions against trade with Iran by avoiding use of the dollar.

As founding shareholders of the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (Instex), France, Germany and the United Kingdom warmly welcome the decision taken by the governments of Belgium, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, to join Instex as shareholders, the three said in a joint statement.

The Paris-based Instex functions as a clearing house that allows Iran to continue to sell oil and import other products or services in exchange.

The system has not yet enabled any transactions.

Washington in 2018 unilaterally withdrew from the international agreement governing Irans nuclear programme and reinstated heavy sanctions against Tehran.

The addition of the six new members further strengthens Instex and demonstrates European efforts to facilitate legitimate trade between Europe and Iran, the joint statement said.

It represents a clear expression of our continuing commitment to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal the trio added.

They insisted Iran must return to full compliance with its commitments under the deal without delay.

We remain fully committed to pursuing our efforts towards a diplomatic resolution within the framework of the JCPoA.

The 2015 deal set out the terms under which Iran would restrict its nuclear programme to civilian use in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions.

Since the US pullout, Iran has taken four steps back from the accord.

The latest was on 4 November, when its engineers began feeding uranium hexafluoride gas into mothballed enrichment centrifuges at the underground Fordow plant south of Tehran.

See the rest here:
Six more countries join Trump-busting Iran barter group - The Guardian

What are you scared of? the woman in the black coat shouts. Help me to understand. She marches up to a man in uniform guarding the petrol station. Youre ruining us, she screams, as the man walks away.

The exchange comes from footage taken around 1am on Friday 15 November in the south-central Iranian city of Shiraz. Hours earlier, in a surprise announcement, Irans government had said it was raising the price of fuel by up to three times, adding to the strain on a population already struggling with an economy suffocated by US sanctions.

The petrol-price hike would trigger what may have been the largest-scale unrest in the 40-year history of the Islamic Republic. Iranian officials this week estimated 200,000 people were involved in the protests and riots which led to 7,000 arrests and, by some estimates, the regimes deadliest-ever response to demonstrations. Amnesty International have confirmed 15 deaths in Shiraz; those on the ground say the toll is much higher.

Like the rest of Iran, Shiraz was cut off from the world by an unprecedented five-day internet blackout. Precisely what transpired in the heartland of Persian culture known as the City of Roses is still unclear.

But interviews with activists inside and outside Shiraz, as well as analysis of social media posts, give a glimpse of what is thought to have been one of the largest protest outbreaks in the country, incurring one of the highest known death tolls.

Before the woman in the black coat leaves the petrol station, she turns to the other drivers in line, exhorting them to park their cars in the middle of the roads to protest the price increase. On Saturday, whoever is a real man will park their car in the middle of the street, she declares from the door.

By Saturday morning, people were heeding the woman and others calling for mass civil disobedience. At least one major road in Shiraz had become a parking lot. People are protesting and have blocked the streets completely, says a voice, surveying the sea of cars in both directions in an industrial area of the city. Drivers gather in groups outside their cars, chatting. The vehicles curve along the palm-lined road to the edge of the frame.

As the day went on, protesters were pouring into the streets of outer-lying areas across the city, according to activists. Social media footage shows significant unrest in at least six spots. The two most prominent incidents were in the suburb of Sadra and on Maliabad Boulevard, a long thoroughfare of banks and retailers that cuts across northern Shiraz.

The rallies were peaceful, and at first, so was the state response. Footage shows demonstrators applauding as police in riot gear are handed flowers. Protesters say they sat in groups on the road, chanting and playing cards.

Later, a protester would record a voice message to the US-based Iranian activist Masih Alinejad, reflecting on the morning. Everything was going well and people were all smiling and happy, he said. I saw people giving roses to the police, the first days was very peaceful and it was all good. Even the police were fine.

It did not last. Footage that activists believe was shot on Maliabad Boulevard the same day appears to show security personnel charging through crowds, sending people fleeing. Clouds of what appears to be tear gas can be seen forming.

There also appears to have been rioting: a video said to have been shot in the city shows fires burning in several spots, a handful of shops gutted, and the road scattered with paper and debris.

The youth has no future in this country with these thieves in power, a protester tells Alinejad in a voice recording heard by the Guardian. They couldnt take it anymore and they were full of rage. They took things to another level.

Things started to escalate when the police started to beat people up. We had to make our weapons to defend ourselves and that was it. It was all because we had to defend our lives.

The protesters, including many from working-class neighbourhoods, brawled with security personnel in some areas, using nails pushed through bottle caps as makeshift spikes to puncture the tyres of police motorcycles and cars.

At some point that afternoon, the police started shooting. Activists have posted footage from Saturday that shows gunshots going off near a Maliabad Boulevard police station.

This is Shiraz and the armed forces are firing at the people, says a man filming outside the police station in another clip. He pushes his way through a chanting crowd, who surround a bloodied man on the ground. It is Mehdi Nekouyee, 20, the first person confirmed to have been killed in Shirazs protests.

Because the internet was cut, Nekouyees family overseas first learned of his death when someone inside Iran wished them condolences on social media. [Mehdi] was quiet, very open minded, his uncle remembers. He wanted freedom, freedom of speech.

Nekouyees killing enraged the demonstrators. Activists say the protesters began to hurl rocks at the police station, tearing at its fence. By Saturday evening, the building was said to be alight.

They were firing live rounds and tear gas, but people were really courageous and did whatever it took, a mans voice said in another recorded message sent to Alinejad. We asked the people who were burning things [to stop], we dont know who they are, but people are full of rage and no one could stop them.

It is really bad and everyone is running for their lives, and the armed forces have no mercy and I couldnt believe they were people from the same homeland It was a violence that Ive never seen before.

Throughout Saturday and the next day, demonstrations were erupting in different parts of the city. Golshan, a suburb in Shirazs north-west that is home to many members of the Qashqai minority group, became a war zone, one activist with contacts in the city said. Security forces entered with heavy weapons and helicopters. All roads into the area were closed from Saturday until the following Tuesday, he said.

Protesters appear to have remained in control of Sadra for most of the weekend. On Sunday 17 November, demonstrators appear to have set fire to the office of the senior imam in the area, a direct attack on the countrys clerical establishment.

Activists say the response to the arson was swift and included helicopters swooping over the crowds, firing bullets and tear gas, a tactic reported in several areas and filmed in Sadra.

Ruhallah Gashgaei, an activist with links inside Shiraz, said an accurate death toll was still impossible to ascertain, but the average of several independent eyewitness accounts was that 60 were killed across Shiraz and an additional nine died in the suburb of Sadra. More information would emerge as different parts of the city were brought online, he said.

By Monday 18 November, the regime appeared to have retaken control of most of Shiraz. Images taken last Sunday and sent to the Guardian showed the city still scarred by the conflict, littered with debris and burned out cars.

An activist in Shiraz estimated 80 bank branches and seven petrol stations had been set alight across the city. Police and Revolutionary Guards are carrying out raids of homes and hospital wards, arresting suspected protesters. The countrys supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has blamed the unrest on a deep, vast and very dangerous conspiracy concocted by Irans enemies overseas.

Last night Shiraz was under the control of Shirazs people, said a protester in a voice message to Alinejad. What [the authorities] say about controlling the situation is all nonsense. The weather changed and became very cold even God is with these people [the regime].

Yes, we survived, a woman says in one of the recorded messages. I saw two people getting shot next to me. Since Monday there has been a military curfew, there are [paramilitary] Basij officers all over the place. They were really scared and with every slight sound they were reacting strangely.

Activists estimate the death toll in Shiraz to number in the dozens, but have not yet been able to provide proof. An Amnesty International report this week increased its confirmed death count across the country to 143. The Iranian government rejects this figure but has not provided its own.

Everyone took to the streets, I was really hopeful that things would change, one of the recordings to Alinejad said. For two days Shiraz was under the control of the people, but nothing bad happened. There was complete peace. It was such a great thing that people had the control over the city. I could see how the country would look like if we take power.

Translations by Mohammed Rasool

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Blocked roads then bullets: Iran's brutal crackdown in its City of Roses - The Guardian

Beyond the shadow of a doubt, the Islamic Republic Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei bears the highest responsibility, followed by President Hassan Rouhani, for the order to use deadly force against people who poured into the streets to protest an unexpected overnight three-fold increase in gasoline prices on November 15.

Based on the Islamic Republic Constitution, Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), presided over by the President, oversees countering anti-establishment protests and dealing with national political crises. The SNSC, assisted by the country's National Security Council (NSC), has access to all tools needed for suppressing widespread demonstrations.

The Constitution stipulates that, at the time of national unrest, SNSC decides the methods and tools required for controlling anti-regime rallies.

Furthermore, SNSC is able to deploy all military forces, including the members of the police, the regular army, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, as well as the militia and armed plainclothesmen to end all protests with an iron fist. The "supreme council" also has the authority to decide on the type of weapons, including aircraft, tanks, and RPGs, that might be used against the protesters.

The country's National Security Council (NSC), headed by the Minister of Interior, Abdol Reza Rahmani Fazli, is practically a subdivision of the SNSC, implementing its guidelines.

Meanwhile, the head of the SNSC, the country's President, may delegate to the head of NSC to preside over the supreme council (SNSC) on his behalf.

That's what happened almost immediately after the widespread anti-regime demonstrations that broke out on November 15. The Interior Minister, assigned by the President, took control of the SNSC to take steps for controlling the fast-expanding protest movement.

As the caretaker of the SNSC, Rahmani Fazli decided on November 16 to shut down the internet across Iran to prevent protesters from linking-up with each other as well as being able to freely upload footage of the unrest and circulate it on social media all over the world.

Although it is still unclear if the SNSC, under Rahmani Fazli's temporary leadership, endorsed opening fire at protesters, Rouhani's responsibility in the recent massacres remains a fact.

Above Rouhani, the Islamic Republic Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is also responsible for the brutal suppression and killing of protesters since he has the last word on major national affairs, without being accountable to anyone.

Article 176 of the Islamic Republic Constitution stipulates that the Supreme Leader is the leading authority in Iran, and none of the SNCS' rulings and decisions are implementable without his blessing and confirmation.

Therefore, Ayatollah Khamenei is directly responsible for the shutdown of the internet across the country and killing dozens of people who merely protested the shocking hike in gasoline prices.

Furthermore, Khamenei is responsible also because he is commander-in-Chief of Irans armed forces.

Based on Article 110 of the Islamic Republic Constitution, the armed forces that fired at demonstrators and killed dozens were merely obeying orders issued by the Supreme Leader.

Following Khamenei and Rouhani, nearly thirteen other civil and military officials are also responsible for the recent bloodshed and detention of thousands.

These include all members of the SNSC; its Secretary the IRGC Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the representative of the Supreme Leader to the influential body Saeid Jalili, the members of the NSC, the speaker of Majles (parliament) Ali Larijani, the head of the Judiciary Ebrahim Raeesi, the head of Plan and Budget Organization Mohammad Baqer Nobakht, the Interior Minister Abdol Reza Rahmani Fazli, the Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Minister of Intelligence Mahmoud Alavi, the Commander of the General Staff of Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic, IRGC Major General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri (Bagheri), and the Chief Commander of the IRGC Major General Hossein Salami.

According to Article 176 of the country's Constitution, the Chief Commanders of the regular Army and the IRGC are not fixed members of the SNSC but attend its sessions on affairs related to their duties.

Meanwhile, the role of several SNSC members in suppressing protesters and anti-regime demonstrators is more crucial than their counterparts. For example, the Minister of Interior Rahmani Fazli played a decisive and direct role in shutting down the internet, placing more pressure on the protesters.

Moreover, the governors across Iran are also directly under the Interior Minister's command, implementing his orders.

It also goes without saying that parallel intelligence apparatuses, notably the IRGC's, have always played a decisive role in killing and detaining thousands of people who dare to challenge the clergy-dominated ruling establishment.

Continued here:
The Joint Responsibility Of Khamenei And Rouhani For Deaths Of Iran Protesters - Iran News By Radio Farda