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The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and the ensuing ceasefire agreement allowed Azerbaijan to capture significant parts of the disputed region.

Iran did not oppose Azerbaijans aggressive approach to restoring its territorial integrity, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei explicitly defending Bakus stance against Armenia. Yet, Azerbaijan has since made a push to seize more territory and fundamentally alter the regional geopolitical landscape - with the help of Turkey and Israel.

Azerbaijans strategy faces the greatest regional opposition from Iran, which maintains that Azerbaijans postwar position is not consistent with guaranteeing the countrys territorial integrity, but rather with changing international borders and encroaching on Armenian territory.

The previous Nagorno-Karabakh conflict had nothing to do with Azerbaijans seizure of Armenian territory during clashes last September. Armenias territorial integrity is not recognised by Azerbaijan, and the conflict has created dire humanitarian conditions for those living in the region.

At the same time, Azerbaijan has faced criticism for not fully implementing the 2020 ceasefire agreement. The deal stipulates that Azerbaijan must ensure the safe passage of people, goods, and vehicles along the Lachin corridor, a road that connects Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, although a replacement route was to be constructed within three years. Azeris have blocked the Lachin corridor and an alternative route, violating the peace agreement.

Despite Azerbaijans assertion that Armenia transports weapons into Nagorno-Karabakh via the Lachin corridor, no reliable evidence has been provided to support this notion.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan says that Armenia must guarantee a connection, dubbed the Zangezur corridor, between Azerbaijan and theNakhchivan Autonomous Republic, as per the ceasefire agreement. But Tehran fears this route would block the Iran-Armenia border, reducing its geopolitical influence in the South Caucasus.

Since Russia has been apathetic towards Azerbaijan and the US and other European powers have appeased it, Baku thinks that, with the help of Israel and Turkey, it can establish a territorial connection between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan by military force.

Iran has been forced to show its teeth and claws. Its forces have been stationed at the border ahead of potential Azeri military operations, but Tehran is not planning preemptive military action. Rather, it will conduct warning and preventative operations if Azerbaijan crosses geopolitical red lines.

Russia, the guarantor of the 2020 ceasefire agreement, has expressed hope that the tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan can be resolved. The US, meanwhile, considers Iran a threat to Azerbaijan and has provided Baku with security aid.

Because Azerbaijan refuses to allow a monitoring mission to be established on its territory, the European Union cannot monitor Azerbaijans aggressive behaviour on the ground.

Meanwhile, Israel, which has sent large amounts of military equipment to Azerbaijan in recent years, also reportedly has an airfield in the country, which is ready in case it opts to attack Iranian nuclear facilities.

In Irans view, Azerbaijans energy resources and transit capacities, as well as its geopolitical position and military power on the borders of Iran and the Caspian Sea, have prompted the US and Europe to adopt a non-confrontational, low-cost policy towards Baku.

In this view, Azerbaijan will be more likely to challenge Irans northwestern borders and its Azeri-populated provinces in the future if it can use militarism to conquer neighbouring lands with international impunity.

To this end, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev has publicly declared himself a supporter of the rights of Iranian Azeris, while Azerbaijani media have referred to these communities as south Azerbaijan.

If Tehran backs down in the face of Bakus territorial adventurism, Azerbaijan will likely become more influential and important to the West.

Iran also faces a geoeconomic threat from Azerbaijans agenda on its border. Although the 2020 ceasefire agreement stipulates that a connecting route would be established between Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan, Baku envisions a high-capacity corridor. The Zangezur corridor would basically comprise a strategic transit route from Central Asia to Europe via the Caspian Sea and South Caucasus, marginalising Russia and Iran, which have their own vision for a regional trade corridor.

Iran does not oppose the connection of the Azerbaijani heartland to Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, with Tehran having allowed Azerbaijan to use its airspace to reach the autonomous republic. For Iran, rather, the concern hinges on the potential for Baku to exploit the Zangezur corridor for political, economic, and security reasons.

Amid Azerbaijans non-compliance with the 2020 ceasefire agreement and its actions around the Lachin corridor, alongside Bakus close ties with Tel Aviv, Tehran has concluded that Azerbaijan is not a reliable partner. There is a risk that the Lachin scenario could be repeated at some point in future along Irans border.

Iran's military capabilities far outweigh those of Azerbaijan, whose security would be fragile in the event of a limited or large-scale conflict

Currently, Tehrans top security priority is to prevent Azerbaijan from invading southern Armenia and capturing its border with Iran. Among its political priorities are direct negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakhs territorial status, and establishing communication lines and borders without the involvement of external European and Nato actors.

Iran is not interested in western-led peacekeeping missions in the South Caucasus. Rather, it would prefer to resolve the crisis via the 3+3 format, involving Iran, Russia, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

As for Tehrans economic priorities, they include equal participation in transit corridors and equitably sharing regional economic interests.

Irans macro policy in the South Caucasus is to maintain a regional balance and prevent conflicts and wars. Iran does not intend to escalate tensions with Azerbaijan and launch a military conflict and it recently appointed a new ambassador to Azerbaijan as a sign of goodwill.

From Irans standpoint, Azerbaijans behaviour is a result of Israeli provocations, and Iran has deployed military forces along its border not to intimidate Baku, but to push Israel back. Irans military capabilities far outweigh those of Azerbaijan, whose security would be fragile in the event of a limited or large-scale conflict.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

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Are Iran and Azerbaijan coming to the brink of war? - Middle East Eye

An Iranian academic group says more than 400 students have been suspended or expelled in the wake of recent nationwide protests sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini last September while being held for allegedly violating the strict Islamic dress code for women.

The Union Council of Iranian Students said on April 13 that 435 students had been hit with disciplinary measures, which were carried out through an illegal and security-driven process. In recent weeks, there have also been several reports of university professors being fired or suspended for accompanying protesting students.

The council said that, in response to the suspensions and expulsions, students from different universities launched a Twitter campaign on April 7 calling for the reinstatement of their colleagues.

Anger over Amini's death has prompted thousands of Iranians to take to the streets to demand more freedoms and women's rights.

Numerous protests have been held at universities, particularly in Tehran, where many students have refused to attend class. At the rallies, protesting students have chanted "Woman, life, freedom" and "Death to the dictator," a reference to the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Some female students have also removed and burned their head scarves at the demonstrations.

Universities and students have long been at the forefront of the struggle for greater social and political freedoms in Iran. In 1999, students protested the closure of a reformist daily, prompting a brutal raid on the dorms of Tehran University that left one student dead.

Over the years, the authorities have arrested student activists and leaders, sentencing them to prison and banning them from studying.

According to the Human Rights News Agency (HRANA), dating back to the start of the protests, 637 students have been detained among the 144 universities across the country that have participated in the unrest. Some sources within Iran have reported the number of detained students to be over 700.

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Iranian Group Says More Than 400 Students Sanctioned In Wake Of Protests - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

(April 13, 2023 / JNS) Tehran took advantage of the earthquake that devastated parts of Syria and Turkey in early February, killing tens of thousands, to smuggle weapons and military equipment, according to Reuters.

The news agency cited Western, Israeli, Iranian and Syrian sources who said that Iran used the humanitarian relief that poured into Syria after the Feb. 6 quake, the worst natural disaster in the region in a century according to the World Health Organization, as cover.

Under the guise of shipments of earthquake aid to Syria, Israel has seen significant movements of military equipment from Iran, mainly transported in parts, an Israeli defense official told Reuters.

The aim of the shipments was to strengthen Irans defenses against Israel in Syria and bolster the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the sources said.

According to the sources, for seven weeks after the quake, Iran sent hundreds of supply flights to Aleppo, Damascus and Latakia airports under the guise of humanitarian aid. The supplies included advanced communications equipment, radar batteries and spare parts for a planned upgrade of Syrias air defense systems.

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Israel has been targeting Iranian assets in Syria for years, although rarely publicly. The regional sources said that upon learning of Iranian shipments to Syria, Israel quickly began targeted strikes.

These strikes have increased in recent weeks; on April 9 the Israel Defense Forces responded to six rockets fired towards the Golan Heights by hitting Syrian military sites as well as the launchers used in the attack.

The IDF sees the State of Syria responsible for all activities occurring within its territory and will not allow any attempts to violate Israeli sovereignty, the army said.

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Iran exploited Syrian earthquake to smuggle weapons, military ... - JNS.org

Iran trades gas for food and medicine

President Ebrahim Raisi's administration is facing mounting local criticism over accepting Iraq's offer of what the opposition has dubbed the "gas-for-food"programme, in reference to a UN programme established for Iraq before the 2003 invasion.

On 7 April, local mediaquotedIran's petroleum minister Jawad Owji as saying that in return for exporting gas to Iraq, Tehran wouldreceive only food, medicines and humanitarian goods.

Following the news, critics of Raisi's economic plans reminded him that one of his presidential campaign slogans was to improve bilateral economic relations withneighbouring countries and to unlock Iran'sassets in Iraq that have been frozen due to US sanctions.

Iran officials hold secret talks with West without Raisis knowledge

"The reality of trading under sanctions shows that we exchange gas with essential goods and medicines. This happens even in a country like Iraq, which is under Iran's influence and very close to us," theMardom Salaridaily wrote on Saturday.

An Iranian economist, Mehdi Pazouki, under the headline "An achievement called oil-for-food",ridiculedRaisi's administration and his strategies for freeing Iran's frozen money in other countries.

"After about two years, Raisi's administration finally had an achievement; an achievement that is not good at all. Oil-for-food is the only accomplishment this government can announce," he wrote.

Despite the US sanctions on Iran's oil, gas and petrochemical export, Iraq is Iran's primary client for gas. However, due to sanctions on Iran's banking system, Baghdad cannot pay Iran for the gas it imports.

Iranian officials have announced conflicting numbers about Iraq's debt to Iran. On 10 March, the Shargh daily reported that the debt was over $18bn.

A branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Court in the city of Izehhassentencedan Iranian protester to deathon charges related to the killing of Kian Pirfalak,a nine-year-old boy whodied during last year's protests.

The court ruling was announced despite thePirfalak family'sinsistence thatMojahed Koorkoor was not their son's killer.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) arrested Koorkoor in Parsourakh village, near Izeh, in the country's southwest, in the aftermath of the protests that engulfed the country following the deathof Mahsa Amini while inthecustody of the morality police on 16 September.

Koorkoor was detained during a 20 December raid, during which the IRGC killed two men and two other people were arrested. Iran's judiciary has not revealed the identities of the other detaineesand those killed in the raid.

On 19 March, the judiciary's Mizan news agency reported that, during a four-hour court hearing, Koorkoor had pleaded guilty and accepted the charges. However, rights groups have warned that he was severely tortured to pressure him into givingfalse confessions.

Last week, avideoof Koorkoor's mother circulated on Farsi social media in which she urged Iranians to help her save the life of her only son.

The Pirfalak family and their lawyer have rejected the judiciary's accusations against Koorkoor, saying their son was killed when the security forces opened fire on their caron 16 November during anti-government protests in Izeh.

In anothervideopublished on 11 April, Pirfalak'sfather said that his family had not filed any complaints against Koorkoor and the other two individuals arrested along with him.

"My wife and I, with our own eyes, saw that the security forces under the command of the [second] brigadier general Eidi Abdi open fire at our car with a barrage of bullets," he said.

Since last September, authorities have executed four men accused of participating in the 2022 anti-establishment demonstrations.

Ali Mojtahedzadeh, a lawyer whodefended political and student activists as well as protesters arrested last year, said many activists face new trials despite being pardoned by a general amnesty ordered by Iran's supreme leader.

On 5 February, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered an amnesty or reduction in prison sentences for tens of thousands of people, includingpeople arrested during the 2022 anti-establishment protests. The judiciary officials later announced that more than 22,000 protesters were freed based on the decree.

However, on Saturday, Mojtahedzadeh warned in an article published in theEtemaddaily that the prosecution of the pardoned activists had resumed in various cases.

Iran finds new ways to crack down on women not wearing hijab

"Not only are the lawsuits against several pardoned individualsnot closed, but we see that the judicial proceedings related to their cases have continued, and they might face convictions," he wrote.

The lawyer said that a group of officials in the country's judicial system and intelligence services were the main forces against the release of the dissidents pardoned in February.

"It seems that some middle-ranking judicial officials and prosecutors have turned a blind eye to the general amnesty, insisting on the trial of those the supreme leader had pardoned," he said.

Mojtahedzadeh also warned that ignoring the general amnesty would lead to a more profound social distrust and weaken the status of Iran's judicial system.

"The destructive and dangerous impact of resuming the trial of these pardoned convicts is so enormous that we can wish the general amnesty was not ordered in the first place," he concluded.

*Iranian press review is a digest of news reports not independently verified as accurate by Middle East Eye.

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Raisi's 'gas-for-food' programme with Iraq criticised: Iranian press ... - Middle East Eye

Figures from the recent Nowruz holidays reflect a widening class gap between Irans rich and poor.

Travelling to other cities, historic sites and seaside resorts has been very popular Nowruz activity for Iranians since the advent of modern transportation in mid-20th century.

While four- and five-star hotels remained busy during the holiday season, two- and three-star properties were vastly under their usual seasonal average.

The chairman of the Iranian Air Travel and Tourism Offices, Hormatollah Rafiei, admitted the trend reflects the economic woes of the country as it battles through some of its worst financial crises of recent history with rising costs of living and declining incomes.

"A large part of four and five-star hotels, which are more expensive, were fully booked, while two and three-star hotels, which are cheaper, remained empty, he said this week, suggesting little impact of the crisis on the top echelons of the country's rich.

It suggests a trend of those in the middle-income brackets either not traveling or opting for more affordable options such as schools, pilgrimage centers, and municipal camps, he added.

Echoing the trend, Iran's hoteliers association announced a 70% drop in occupancy levels during the holidays.

While annual inflation hovers around 50 percent, prices for necessities such as food have risen much faster. Official figures published by Statistical Center of Iran show food prices rising by 70-100 percent in the past year.

As the national currency has halved in value since mid-2022, monthly salaries for ordinary people have dropped to less than $150.

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Travel Figures Show Social Class Inequality Widening In Iran -