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Irans progress towards an ICBM. How close are they? Iran possesses the largest and most diversified ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. While this threshold certainly poses a significant threat to its neighbors, Irans capability to produce an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is not entirely on the imminent horizon. However, the tremendous improvements to Irans weapons lethality and precision in the last decade should warn that the regimes ambitions are not limited. The current state of Irans ICBM progress is better dissected in three parts- the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp. (IRGC) space program, collaboration with North Korea, and proxy warfare in the region.

Amidst the joint U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Vienna this February, Iran unveiled its Khaybar Sheikan missile. With a reported range of 1,450 kilometers, this weapon could reach both U.S. bases in the region and Israel. A month earlier, Iran tested an engine for a solid-fuel rocket needed to launch satellites. The pure solid-fuel rocket design typically corresponds to ballistic missile systems. While these developments have been showcased publicly, the extent of Irans weapons programs is likely underground or hidden.

The unveiling of the new Khaybar Sheikan missile fell close to the anniversary of Irans National Space Technology Day, which commemorates the 2009 launch of its domestic-grown liquid-fuel Safir rocket. Based on North Koreas Nodong liquid-fuel rocket, the Safir was ultimately intended to carry nuclear weapons. While technical issues and challenges with the Safir have minimized its significance, Irans space program has become more alarming in recent years.

In April 2020, Iran launched its first successful military satellite, Noor-1 (light), carried by its own Qased three-stage space launch vehicle (SLV). This launch marked a turning point in Irans weapons development program for two reasons. First, Noor-1 was launched in coordination with the IRGC military space program. All space launches up this point had been carried out by the Iranian Space Agency, so the militarys coordination with the launch indicates broader resources are being poured into this sector. Second, the launch displayed a solid-fuel capability that could make Irans ballistic missile designs more lethal and sophisticated in the future.

Advancements in Irans space program could correlate to its potential ICBM capabilities in the long run. The regimes long-range missile designs will use the technology developed in its solid-fuel space programs to build launch vehicles and the guidance system for targeting and navigation. While inserting a satellite into orbit suggests a decently sophisticated guidance system, the successful reentry and warheads targeting is another matter.

While Irans exact progress in ICBM development cannot be characterized due to its lack of transparency, the states extensive proxy activities showcase its reliance on missile and rocket technology. Iran serves as a prominent hub for weapons proliferation, supplying militias and proxy groups all over the region with a constant flow of missiles and rockets. While Yemens Houthi rebels have been equipped with increasingly advanced ballistic and cruise missiles in recent years, Iraqs Shiite militias have received explosive-laden drones and rockets.

Iran relies heavily on its missile and rocket development programs to maintain its position as the largest proliferator in the region. The regimes prioritization of its weapons arsenal, covert activities, and advancing space program indicate while Irans ICBM capabilities may not be an imminent threat, it is certainly the regimes ambition. Currently, Iran doesnt possess any nuclear warheads, let alone those capable of use on an ICBM, but they are closing in on a viable warhead. If Iran takes a year after its nuclear breakout time to create a bomb, the regime would undoubtedly pour much of its resources into ICBM development to create a capable delivery system for their weapon.

Maya Carlin is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in a wide range of publications including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel.

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How Soon Could Iran Have an ICBM? - 19FortyFive

JNS.org Like every year at the annual Quds Day (Jerusalem Day) on the last Friday of the month-long Ramadan holiday, Iran and its proxiesHezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthi movement in Yemen and Iran-backed militias in Iraqcalled for continued jihad against the temporary entity Israel.

According to the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) report, the events held this year on April 29 included conferences, rallies and processions in Tehran, Hezbollahs stronghold in Beirut and Gaza.

Furthermore, a Hamas delegation headed by a member of the movements political bureau, Khalil Al-Hayya, and Hamas official Osama Hamdan visited Iran and attended the main rally in Tehran.

The delegation, according to MEMRI, also met with Iranian officials, including the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Gen. Hossein Salami.

Salami stated: The latest developments in the Palestinian arena clearly reflect the fear of the Israeli entity and the might of the resistance. Thanks to the jihad fighters of the resistance, the [Islamic] nation is [now] a steadfast nation whose might causes the equations and the power balances in the region to shift. The Palestinian people realized that its goals will be achieved only through jihad.

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At Annual Quds Day, Iran and Its Terror Proxies Call for Jihad Against Israel - Algemeiner

by David Albright and Sarah Burkhard

May 5, 2022

This report is an imagery update of earlier reports on the construction progress at the new Natanz tunnel complex, located under a mountain south of the main uranium enrichment site. Commercial satellite imagery from March and May 2022 show new, long extensions at two tunnel entrances, likely to be covered by earth to further protect and secure the entrances. In parallel, construction inside the tunnel appears to be progressing steadily. Major excavation efforts appear completed, while tunnel lining work appears to be ongoing, as well as clearance activities for a possible fourth tunnel portal. It now appears possible that the site could be ready for initial operation in 2022. Based on official Iranian accounts, the new tunnel complex will house a new centrifuge assembly facility to replace the Iranian Centrifuge Assembly Center (ICAC) destroyed in an attack in July 2020. However, a recent Institute analysis found that the new tunnel complex will likely be more deeply buried than Fordow and have significantly more floor space, raising questions about other sensitive nuclear activities at the site, most worrisome, enrichment activities.

Construction Progress

Figure 1 provides an overview of the Natanz tunnel complex as of March 8, 2022, with three visible tunnel portals (two eastern portals and one western portal) and a possible fourth one being constructed. Newly visible since the Institutes January 2022 update are new extensions at two tunnel entrances, one at the western tunnel portal and one at the eastern auxiliary entrance.

Figures 2 and 3 show the tunnel entrances and their extensions in March, situated in a channel of excavated rock, allowing future coverage with earth and providing significant additional protection to the tunnel portals. By May 2022, the eastern tunnel entrance extension is covered, while the extension at the western main portal appears to be in progress (see Figures 4 and 5).

Water appearing to flow from the eastern main portal, previously visible in November 2021, is visible again in May 2022. It is unknown if the water is uncontrolled outflow from the eastern main portal, representing an unexpected construction challenge.

Surrounding spoil piles remained largely unchanged since November 2021, indicating that boring and excavation of the underground complex are largely complete. The addition of a probable concrete batch plant, continued presence of heavy construction equipment and usage of dirt roads, as well as previously visible probable shotcrete equipment indicate that the concrete lining of the complex walls is well underway and that final lining and reinforcement operations of the tunnel complex are ongoing. The possible fourth tunnel portal would likely be constructed relatively quickly and segue into the existing tunnel. A spoil pile associated with road grading and clearance of the area appears to grow quickly.

There has been no visible evidence of centrifuge manufacturing or centrifuge-related equipment being moved into the tunnel complex. It may be possible that such transfers could occur later this year or early next year.

Figure 1. A March 2022 overview image of the tunnel complex under construction south of the main Natanz enrichment plant.

Figure 2. One of the two eastern tunnel portals shows a likely permanent tunnel entrance extension, adding further protection to the entrance.

Figure 3. The western tunnel entrance also features a new entrance extension, likely to be covered by earth in the future, as of March 2022.

Figure 4. The eastern tunnel entrance extension is covered in May 2022.

Figure 5. The western tunnel entrance extension appears to have progressed slightly.

1. David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and John Hannah, Irans Natanz Tunnel Complex: Deeper, Larger than Expected, Institute for Science and International Security, January 13, 2022, https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/irans-natanz-tunnel-complex-deeper-larger-than-expected/8

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Imagery Update: Iran Continues to Harden its New Natanz Tunnel Complex [1] - Institute for Science and International Security

Emphasizing the importance of the role and position of exclusiveexhibitions in introducing and recognizing the achievements, capabilities and quality of products of Iranian companies, Mehdi Safari said thatthe second exclusive exhibition of Iran and Kyrgyzstan is scheduled to be held on June 28-31, in Bishkek and is a great opportunity for capable Iranian companies to try to diversify their markets in the current special economic conditions.

Safari describedthe strengthening of trade and economic relations with Central Asian countries, including Kyrgyzstan, as one of the priorities of the Foreign Ministry's economic diplomacy.

The volume of trade between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Kyrgyzstan in the last Iranian year (started March 20, 2021), according to published statistics, reached about $ 80 million.Iran's exports to Kyrgyzstan reached $ 79 million this year, making it the fourth largest country in the Eurasian Economic Union.

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Iran to hold 2nd exclusive exhibition in Bishkek in late June - Mehr News Agency - English Version

Iranians adore a picnic. During the countrys most ancient festival, Nowruz, the Persian new year, they brandish baskets of food as they swarm into parks and gardens to celebrate Sizdah-bedar, the 13th and final day of the Nowruz celebrations and the coming of spring. In Britain, its only just getting warm enough to enjoy a khoresht stew or doogh, a yoghurt drink that tastes a little like Indian lassi. But venture out to Hyde Park and youll see groups of young and old Iranians sitting in the pale springtime sun.

The Persian picnic is generally a family affair. Pretty much every Iranian has fond memories of Nowruz meals; eating fragrant rice and meats with kindly aunts. These picnics are best enjoyed in one of Irans ancient Persian gardens (Bagh-e Irani), which first emerged during the Achaemenid Empire of Cyrus the Great. Even ignoring the mullahs absurd ban on alcohol, Iran is a dry country. Theres not a lot of water, so the Iranian idea of paradise is a verdant one. Lush green with plenty of water and its ornamental offspring: flowers. Images of gardens spread throughout Persian art and have remained lodged in our collective minds ever since Cyrus launched his empire in 550 bc.

The effect on Persian society has been huge. Iranians are always prepared for a picnic, says Roham Alvandi, a historian of Iran at the London School of Economics. On pretty much every road trip Ive ever taken, a picnic seems to materialise on the way. Ive been at airport gates waiting for a flight either to or from Iran and have seen an Iranian family suddenly produce a picnic with condiments and all the cutlery. Picnics are something really established in the culture, centred strongly around the family.

But what was once a family jolly has become, thanks to the oppressive Islamic Republic, something more political. Its not uncommon for families to eat on the graves of dead relatives, laying out blankets on top of memorial stones. But in recent years, Iranians have been taking their Nowruz picnics to the tomb of Cyrus the Great, widely regarded as the countrys greatest ruler. Cyrus is an avowedly Iranian hero who predates Islam by almost a millennium. Picnics at his tomb have become a way for people to embrace their Iranian rather than Islamic identity.

Since the Islamists took control of the country after the 1979 revolution, the regime has tried to engineer the reverse: they see Iranians as, above all else, Muslims. That tension between the Islamic and the Iranian has squatted like a toad on public life. The former head of the Revolutionary Courts, Ayatollah Sadeq Khalkhali, a sordid murderer known as the hanging judge, was always desperate to bulldoze the great Achaemenid city of Persepolis, believed by some to have been founded by Cyrus. Scratch a religious fanatic and youll almost invariably find a Philistine, too.

For a lot of people, picnics by the tomb of Cyrus are how they give the middle finger to the regime.Its tough for the regime to respond because Cyrus is a great icon, Alvandi explains. Its also hard to get too angry about a picnic without looking absurd. So the revolutionaries are stuck, watching happy Iranians munching Koobideh kebab in defiance of their austere leaders.

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The romance and rebellion of an Iranian picnic - The Spectator