Archive for the ‘Iran’ Category

Leading Iraqi Clerics Call For Dismantling Iran-Backed Shi’ite Militias – RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

Leading Iraqi Shi'ite clerics are calling for the disbandment of powerful Iran-backed Shi'ite militias now that the nation has retaken its second-largest city, Mosul, from the Islamic State extremist group.

Muqtada al-Sadr, an anti-American firebrand with a large following among Baghdad's urban poor, on August 4 called for the disbandment of Hashed al-Shaabi, a paramilitary organization with an estimated 122,000 troops dominated by Iran-backed Shi'ite militias.

Sadr was speaking to thousands of supporters in Baghdad after a rare visit over the weekend to Iran's archrival Saudi Arabia, where he met with the Saudi crown prince.

In a speech broadcast on huge screens, Sadr urged Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi to dismantle the Hashed militias, or Popular Mobilization Forces, and "integrate into the army the disciplined members," AFP reported.

Sadr also called on the authorities to "seize the arsenal of all armed groups."

Sadr himself led a militia that fought against the U.S. occupation of Iraq in the last decade. But he is now seen as a nationalist who has repeatedly called for protests against corruption in the Iraqi government.

Another leading cleric calling for the disbandment of the Iran-backed militias is Shi'ite Sheikh Fadil al-Bidayr, who was one of the religious leaders who issued an urgent call to arms answered by the militias in 2014 when IS swept through northern and western Iraq and captured Mosul amid a collapse in the Iraqi Army.

"We always knew that Iran would use this [call to arms] to increase its own power in Iraq, but we had no other choice" at the time, Bidayri told AP.

Bidayri said that now that Mosul has been retaken and the Iraqi military has been partially rebuilt, he believes the Shi'ite militias should be disbanded, to curb Iranian influence in Iraq and reduce sectarian tensions.

The elderly sheikh, like much of Iraq's religious establishment in Najaf, is a staunch nationalist and wary of Iran's growing influence.

"From the very beginning...Iran used every opportunity to get involved in Iraq," he told AP. "Each time they used the protection of the Shi'ite people as an excuse."

The Hashed al-Shaabi is the largest Shi'ite paramilitary group and is nominally under Abadi's command. But some of its components have for years been sending fighters to support Syria in its six-year civil war with rebel groups.

The paramilitary force took part in the battle to liberate Mosu, and could join future operations aimed at routing the militants from areas of the country they still hold. IS still controls parts of western Iraq, including much of the desert province of Anbar.

While Sadr, Bidayri, and some other Iraqi political, religious, and military leaders say the Shi'ite militias must go, militia leaders say their sacrifices on the battlefield have earned them a permanent place in Iraq's security forces.

Although the Shi'ite militias did not play a central role in the battle to retake Mosul, they moved into the deserts held by IS west of the city, massing around the town of Tal Afar and retaking a border crossing between Iraq and Syria.

They also took control of highways bisecting the Sunni heartland in western Iraq and used as vital military and civilian supply lines.

In past fights against IS, including the operation to retake the cities of Tikrit and Fallujah, the Shi'ite militias were accused of sectarian killings and other abuses against minority Sunnis. Militia leaders acknowledged some abuses occurred but said those responsible have been disciplined.

"The Hashed will remain...and our relationship with Iran will remain," Hadi al-Amiri, a senior leader of the Badr Brigade, one of Iraq's most powerful Shi'ite militias, told AP.

Amiri said IS's insurgent capabilities will pose a long-term security threat to Iraq and his forces will have a continuing mission.

Iraq's prime minister has also repeatedly said he backs the Popular Mobilization Forces, telling reporters at a press conference last week that they "must remain at least for years, as the terrorism threat still exists."

Moreover, analysts say it's unlikely Iraqi security forces would be able to absorb all the militia factions.

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Leading Iraqi Clerics Call For Dismantling Iran-Backed Shi'ite Militias - RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

Iran’s President Rohani Sworn In For His Second Term In Office – RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

Iranian President Hassan Rohani has been sworn in for his second term in an open parliament session in Tehran.

Speaking at a lavish ceremony attended by more than 100 foreign dignitaries on August 5, Rohani promised that his country will pursue a "path of coexistence and interaction with the world."

Among the guests was EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, who held a meeting with Rohani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif before the ceremony.

Rohani, 68, a moderate cleric who secured reelection on May 19, was formally endorsed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on August 3.

Rohani called the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers one of the greatest achievements of his government in the past four years. The landmark nuclear deal led to the lifting of most sanctions against Iran in return for curbs on its nuclear program.

Rohani warned the United States against undermining the nuclear deal and said "Iran will not be the first to violate the nuclear deal, but nor will it stay silent when the United States fails to respect its commitments.

Last month, Washington announced new sanctions over Irans missile program and alleged support for terrorist groups. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly described the nuclear deal as "bad" and during his election campaign vowed to dismantle it.

Rohani was first elected in 2013 with nearly 51 percent of the vote. He won 57 percent of the vote in Mays election after promising to build bridges with the outside world and create more jobs.

Iran's state media reported that more than 130 high-ranking officials from various countries and international organizations attended the swearing-in ceremony, a significant achievement for Iran, which has been largely isolated since the country's 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Top European officials present at the ceremony included French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, State Secretary at the German Foreign Ministry Michael Roth, and British Minister of State for the Middle East and North Africa Alistair Burt.

Some of Iran's oldest allies, including Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, also attended the ceremony.

Under Iranian law, Rohani will have two weeks to submit his cabinet to parliament for approval.

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Iran's President Rohani Sworn In For His Second Term In Office - RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

North Korea’s ‘No. 2’ official on 10-day visit to Iran that may signal wider military ties – CNBC

Amid new U.S. sanctions, North Korea's "No. 2" official began a 10-day visit to Iran on Thursday that could result in the two sides expanding their ties.

Iran's official IRNA news agency reported Kim Yong Nam, chairman of the Supreme Assembly of North Korea, arrived Thursday for the weekend inauguration ceremony for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

But given the head of North Korea's parliament is expected to stay for 10 days in Iran, the trip is being seen as a front for other purposes, including expanding military cooperation. At the same time, Pyongyang is looking for ways to counter sanctions and to boost the hard currency for Kim Jong Un's regime.

"There could be very problematic cooperation going on because of the past history and because it makes strategic sense, especially for Iran now," said Emily Landau, a senior research fellow at the Israeli-based Institute for National Security Studies and head of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program. INSS is an independent think tank affiliated with Tel Aviv University.

The man whom Iran described as the North's "No. 2" is believed to be traveling with a delegation of other officials from Pyongyang, including economic and military officials.

"For North Korea, it's not a question of ideology," Landau said. "It's not a question of being close politically and maybe in terms of any of their religious orientation. It's all about who can pay in hard cash. That's what makes North Korea a very dangerous source of nuclear technology, components and know-how."

Last month, Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo said in a speech at the Intelligence and National Security Alliance that he had "created two new mission centers aimed at focusing on putting a dagger in the heart of the Korean problem and the problem in Iran."

"Both the North Koreans and Iranians feel a serious threat from the United States and the West and sort of see each other as very different countries but facing a somewhat similar situation," said Matthew Bunn, a nuclear proliferation expert and professor of practice at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government.

In July, nuclear-armed North Korea conducted two tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile. Iran could have an ICBM capability similar to North Korea within a few years, as just last week it successfully launched a satellite-carrying rocket that some see as a precursor to long-range ballistic missile weapon capability.

"There's been fairly extensive cooperation on missiles," said Bunn. "And in fact, early generations of Iranian missiles were thought to be basically modestly adapted North Korean missiles."

For example, Tehran's Shahab-3 ballistic missile, capable of reaching Saudi Arabia from Iranian land, is based on technology from North Korea's Nodong-1 rockets. Iran's Ghadir small submarine, which in May conducted a cruise-missile test, is a vessel remarkably similar to those used by Pyongyang.

There's still a bit of a mystery on the nuclear side, but some former CIA analysts have previously said Iranian scientists have attended nuclear tests in North Korea. There have been recent reports North Korea may be preparing for its sixth nuclear test.

Tehran's hands are tied due to the international nuclear agreement, although there's a possibility it could quietly be teaming up with North Korea on nuclear research and doing it from the Korean Peninsula.

"The fact they are cooperating so closely on the missile realm is cause to believe that there could be even more cooperation going on even directly in the nuclear realm," said Landau, the Israeli-based national security expert.

Bunn, however, isn't so sure there's currently any collaboration on the nuclear side between the two regimes but said "there's a real danger potential" of it happening.

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North Korea's 'No. 2' official on 10-day visit to Iran that may signal wider military ties - CNBC

The Guardian view on Iran: the nuclear deal is not a disaster but scrapping it could be – The Guardian

Hassan Rouhani. Despite defeating his conservative rival by a landslide in Mays elections, opposition is ranged against him at home and abroad. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

When the Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, is sworn in again on Saturday, the EUs foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and ministers from Britain, France and Germany will be in Tehran to watch; an indication of how far relations with the west warmed in his first term. Yetashe embarks upon his second, he may feel the chill. Despite defeating his conservative rival by a landslide in Mays elections, opposition is ranged against him at home and abroad. The great domestic uncertainty he faces supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 78 and without aclear successor is for now overshadowed by Donald Trumps threat to pull out of the landmark nuclear deal signed in 2015.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors its implementation, says Iran is complying with the requirements to curb its nuclear programme and accept inspections in return for sanctions relief. But Mr Trump has vowed to overturn the Obama administrations stand-out foreign policy achievement. He has twice signed the sanctions waiver, but with extreme reluctance. He has asked aides to find a way to ditch the deal and says he expects Iran to be declared non-compliant next month. Officials say it has breached the pact in spirit.

Mr Rouhani promised that the agreement would bring prosperity. Irans economy is growing again; he has slashed inflation and stabilised the currency. But poverty has risen, a quarter of young people are unemployed, and foreign investment remains well below projections. Iranians have not yet felt the benefits they expected. Alongside the economic dissatisfaction run other concerns. Younger people especially want reform, and to see more women in government, and better links with the outside world. Meanwhile, the presidents hardline opponents, including the Revolutionary Guard and the judiciary, have portrayed the deal as a capitulation for little reward not least, because it challenges their vested interests. They sense opportunity; note the recent detention of Mr Rouhanis brother. Iranian presidents are usually weakened in their second term and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has fired a shot across the presidents bows by implying a parallel with Abolhassan Banisadr, a reformist removed from office early.

For now, Irans elite seems to be playing down divisions. That may make it harder for the US to push Tehran into abandoning the agreement, as Mr Trump apparently hoped. Iran says the US is breaching it by applying separate sanctions relating to missiles and human rights, but does not want to walk away. European parties to the deal want to shore it up; Frances Total signed a multibillion-dollar gas deal with Iran last month. But should the US pull out, secondary sanctions would hobble foreign companies seeking to do business with Iran.

Iran has much to answer for; most of all, assisting Bashar al-Assads crimes against his people in Syria. The countrys grim human rights record at home is further tarnished by the deteriorating health of opposition leaders Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, held under house arrest since the popular protests of 2011. Its elections are anything but free and fair yet they are competitive, meaningful and much more than most US allies in the region offer. No one could deny that Mr Rouhani is a very different president to his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. YetMr Trump greeted his re-election by throwing US weight more fully behind SaudiArabia in its struggle with Iran for regional hegemony.

American hostility can only bolster the isolationist, hardline forces ranged against Mr Rouhani; against the wishes and instincts of the Iranian people; against stability in the region and indeed against the interests of the US. Even defence secretary James Mattis who has defined the three gravest threats facing the US as Iran, Iran, Iran is among those pressing to maintain the deal. The president he serves calls the agreement a disaster. But Mr Trump is, as usual, wrong. It is scrapping it that could court catastrophe.

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The Guardian view on Iran: the nuclear deal is not a disaster but scrapping it could be - The Guardian

Trump keeps scaring investors away from Iran – CNNMoney

But a flood of major investment has not materialized -- and that's largely because of the United States.

More than two years have passed since Iran signed a landmark nuclear agreement with six world powers including the U.S. The deal allowed Tehran to get a handle on rampant inflation that resulted from years of crippling sanctions, and the country has dramatically boosted its oil production and exports.

Iran has been certified as being in compliance with the nuclear deal.

But foreign companies are still reluctant to invest because they fear the agreement could collapse.

"The train has left the station but its not moving at the pace that people expected," said Raul Heraud, head of financial services at strategic advisory firm Solidiance. "It is important to have a clear picture in terms of strategy of entering the market."

The U.S., which kept other sanctions on Iran in place even after the nuclear deal was signed, is the source of much of the investor anxiety.

President Trump has long promised a tough line on Iran -- including calls on the campaign trail to tear up or renegotiate the nuclear agreement, which he has described as "the worst deal ever."

On Wednesday, Trump signed into law new sanctions that target individuals associated with Iran's ballistic missile program. Tehran responded by saying the measures are designed to derail the 2015 nuclear agreement.

A trickle not a flood

Iran sits on 9% of the world's proven oil reserves and 18% of the planet's natural gas, according to data from BP (BP). And there has been a smattering of promising investments in the sector.

French oil giant Total and state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation last month signed a multi-billion dollar deal to further develop Iran's giant South Pars gas field. It was the first major Western investment since sanctions were eased.

"European oil and gas companies are still at the front of the queue. They are preferred by Iran for their technical and financial capabilities," said Homayoun Falakshahi a senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "The latest sanctions are slowing things down but not stopping interest from companies."

European firms may feel more confident because of the position of the European Union, which said last month that it would "stay committed in preserving and implementing" the nuclear deal and "expects all sides to keep the commitments they took two years ago."

Consumer goods makers are getting in on the act, too: Germany's Volkswagen (VLKAF) has also announced that it will sell cars in Iran for the first time in 17 years.

The deals require a tremendous amount of planning. Many international banks, for example, won't provide financing over fears of violating U.S. sanctions.

Related: Amazon says it might have violated U.S. sanctions on Iran

U.S. companies on the sidelines

American firms, meanwhile, have largely stayed away from Iran.

"We've seen European players enter the market, the U.S. unfortunately has to look from the sidelines and have to wait for their turn," said Heraud.

The only major exception is Boeing (BA), which has inked an $8 billion deal to sell 80 jets to Iran Air. It has another agreement to sell 30 airplanes to Aseman Airlines.

U.S. firms must receive special approval from the Treasury Department to do business in Iran.

"We have heard first hand from many companies who have applied ... that the process takes a long time and that many applicants are unsuccessful," said Karim El Assir of KPMG's corporate intelligence team.

Even successful applicants can't be sure that the policy sands won't shift. Just last week, for example, the Treasury Department slapped sanctions on six Iran-based satellite companies following an Iranian rocket launch.

Related: The ride-hailing app that rules Tehran's busy streets

High risk, high reward

Some companies are willing to take the risk.

"Although Iran epitomizes the high-risk, high-reward dilemma, there no doubt that many foreign companies will follow in what is still a relatively untrodden path," said Torbjorn Soltvedt, an analyst at the global risk consultancy firm Maplecroft.

But caution is still the name of the game.

"They are doing extensive due diligence," said Falakshahi from Wood Mackenzie.

In July, the Trump administration begrudgingly certified that Iran was continuing to comply with the terms of the nuclear deal. But it signaled more trouble ahead.

"The secretary of state -- and the president -- intends to emphasize that Iran remains one of the most dangerous threats to the U.S. and to regional security," a senior administration official said at the time.

"Moving forward, the administration intends to employ a strategy that will address the totality of Iran's malign behavior and not just focus on the nuclear deal," the official added.

CNNMoney (Dubai) First published August 3, 2017: 12:01 PM ET

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Trump keeps scaring investors away from Iran - CNNMoney