Mediaboss Marketing

OPINION:

Operating on the nonsensical policy that anything former President Donald Trump did should be reversed, the Biden administration reengaged in indirect talks with Iran to return to the disastrous 2015 nuclear deal framework.

Sending the worst possible negotiator, Bob Malley, to Vienna, President Biden promised the American people the U.S. would return to the original agreement and get Iran to halt its ballistic missile program and end its support to terrorist operations in the Middle East. This effort has apparently failed, even as the U.S. was willing to concede to almost all of Irans demands.

Here, Iran has engaged in an extortion effort as a price for entering new talks, demanding the U.S. release of $10 billion of frozen Iranian funds to prove the seriousness of its intentions. In addition to $3.5 billion already released as a gesture of goodwill, Mr. Biden had already extended the waiver on sanctions on Iranian oil.

Iran has also demanded a guarantee the U.S. would not withdraw from any future agreement, which is absurd. Even Iran understands Mr. Biden cant commit to such a demand as a new nuclear deal is a political understanding and not a legally binding treaty approved by the Senate. Nobody from either party believes such an agreement could ever gain Senate approval. If another Republican takes office after Mr. Biden, Iran knows that the U.S. would likely withdraw again.

The new ultra-conservative Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has taken a hard line in the negotiations and has been unwilling to compromise on anything. If Mr. Raisi obtains anything less than his maximum demands, it will appear as capitulation, not compromise, and hurt his chance of becoming supreme leader, his highest priority.

Iran recognizes Mr. Biden is desperate for an agreement at almost any cost, which he can portray as a win. Fortunately, Mr. Bidens critics and even some mainstream media see this as well and arent willing to let him cave in on every issue entirely. Reflecting this reality, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was ominous when speaking about the negotiations saying, Its not going well and that, We do not yet have a pathway back into the JCPOA.

Some Democrats have recognized diplomacy was moving backward, as Irans representatives in Vienna made new demands while retracting previous concessions. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has even noted that the U.S. would not accept an approach where Iran stalls in the talks and advances its nuclear program. The Vienna negotiations just became a cover for Iranian progress toward a threshold nuclear weapons capability.

Unfortunately, the solution suggested by these Democrats is a fanciful delusion. They believe a diplomatic effort to resolve this crisis can be achieved by restoring Irans fear that its current nuclear path will trigger the use of force by the U.S.

Their recommendation that the U.S. military engages in exercises that instill fear into the Iranian leadership is not realistic. The Iranians and few in the U.S. believe Mr. Biden will ever use force against Iran or anyplace else. Here too, Mr. Bidens rhetoric that all options are on the table only rings hollow.

Saber rattling has not been limited to the U.S. Israel has been very public about reviving its planning efforts for war with Iran and potential airstrikes against the Iranian nuclear facilities. There is no realistic scenario for Israel undertaking such a strike or that it could be successful.

Israeli Chief of General Staff Aviv Kochavi sees the military option against Iran as an impractical scenario. Previously, the Israelis believed that the U.S. under Mr. Trump would do the work for them with pressure and crippling sanctions that would cause the regimes collapse. Clearly, this did not happen.

Israel has been focused on developing defensive plans for warning, detecting and intercepting Iranian drones. It could become a key player and asset for regional states under threat of these drones. In the future, these means of detection could also be deployed in the Gulf states, providing early warning of drone attacks a possible solution against the long-term threat of Iranian ballistic missiles.

Currently, Israel continues to engage in covert operations within Iran, targeting nuclear scientists and facilities with limited success in delaying the program. Recent cyberattacks on Iranian gas stations were less successful. Some have suggested that such covert operations be increased but fail to understand that such activities do not scale. The resources and personnel needed to greatly expand them dont exist and wont stop the Iranian program.

Iran uses its operatives and proxies to attack the U.S. and its allies, largely in Syria and Iraq. Most recently, two attacks were attributed to Iran and its Shiite militias the drone attack against the U.S. base in al-Tanf in eastern Syria and on the home of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. The U.S. has responded by striking Iranian weapons depots in Syria and Iranian drones but has not engaged Iranian forces directly.

For now, there is a tacit acceptance that there will be no new nuclear agreement. Iran may approach or cross the threshold in becoming a nuclear power, and that Plan B may well consist of effective defensive technologies. Added to this will need new and realistic thinking about how deterrence can be applied to this critical scenario. Without some realistic thinking, the Middle East may face a prospect nobody wants.

Abraham Wagner has served in several national security positions, including the NSC Staff under Presidents Nixon and Ford. He is the author of the recent book Henry Kissinger: Pragmatic Statesman in Hostile Times.

Read more:
Failure in the Iran nuclear talks - Washington Times

The Iranian military doesnthave the most modern equipment, but the Islamic Republic hasmade dowith its aging arsenal. It haseven beenable to produce some equipment domestically. This month, those efforts included the mounting of a new anti-missile system on the turrets of its Soviet-designed T-72M tanks to protect them from attack, the Fars news agency reported on Wednesday.

The system has been tested and will be installed on the tank turrets. It will be able to deflect all types of missiles by jamming their systems,Fars reported during thethird day of Great Prophet 17(Payambar-e Azam 17) land and sea military maneuvers that were taking place in three of the republic's southern provinces. The drills were reportedly taking place in three Gulf coastal provinces, including in Bushehr, not far from the country's only nuclear power plant.

Improved Karrar Tank

The news agency also cited Iran's Revolutionary Guards land forces chief, Gen.MohammadPakpourclaims that themain gunon the tankshas a 3-kilometer (1.9-mile) range and precision night-time capabilities.

Production of the T-72 main battle tank (MBT) began in 1969, and it first entered service with the Soviet Unionfiftyyears ago. It was the most common tank employed by the Warsaw Pact from the 1970s to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. It was also exported to other countries, including Finland, India, Iraq, Syria and Yugoslavia. It was employed by the Iraqi military in the Iran-IraqWar andwas considered the feared tank of that conflict.

The Islamic Republic also importednumerousT-72S, the export variant of the T-72M, while it captured aboutone hundredIraqi tanks during the war. Licensed production of the locally made version,the Karrar, is still underway at some Iranian factories and the Islamic Republic has sought to modernize itsindigenously-builttanks as effectively as possible.

In 2020, Iran unveiled a heavily upgraded and modified version of the tank, the T-72M1, whichfeatured a modified turretwith flat armor on its side and a simplified forward-opening hatch. Thecommander's cupolaand machine gun were removed, whichgiveit the appearance of a more modern T-90. However,Iran has rejected that there has been any alleged collaboration in the project.

The modified T-72 Karrar tanks are reported tobe in servicewith the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) andare equipped with a camouflage system that provides concealment against thermal infrared radar detection, while it is also believed to be furnished with an electro-optical fire control system, laser rangefinders, and a ballistic computer.

In addition to seeming to have elements of the T-90, the Karrar has been noted to have features borrowed from the American M1 Abrams and even the British Chieftain tanks. In developing an indigenous MBT, Tehran seemed to have taken elementsfrom other noted tanks. Its main armament is a 125-millimeter2A45M/M-2/M-5 smoothbore gun with a stabilizer.Itappears as thoughit could be equipped with a new anti-missile system. How effective the tankis remainsunknown, but it could far more capable than some of the antiquated hardware the Islamic Republic has had to rely on.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He regularly writes about military small armsand is the author of several books on military headgear includingA Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.

Image: Reuters

See the original post:
Iran Adding New Anti-Missile System to its T-72M Tanks - The National Interest

Population of Iranian provinces and counties in 2021.

Iran's population increased dramatically during the later half of the 20th century, reaching about 80 million by 2016.[1][2] As of 2021, Irans population is around 85 million.[3]In recent years, however, Iran's birth rate has dropped significantly. Studies project that Iran's rate of population growth will continue to slow until it stabilizes above 100 million by 2050.[4][5] Half of Iran's population was under 35 years old in 2012.[6]

In 2009, the number of households stood at 15.3 million (4.8 persons per household).[7] Families earn some 11.8 million rials (about $960) per month on average (2012).[8]

According to the OECD/World Bank statistics population growth in Iran from 1990 to 2008 was 17.6 million and 32%.[9] The literacy rate was 80% in 2002,[10][11] and 85% in 2016.[12]Iran fertility has fallen to 1.6 recently which is much less than 2.1 .[13]

According to the 2016 population census the population of Iran was 79.9 million,[1] a fourfold increase since 1956. Between 1976 and 1986, an average annual population growth of almost 4% was reached, but due to decreasing fertility levels the growth decreased to 1.2% between 2011 and 2016.

(2019 estimates)[15]

(2001 statistics)[16][17][18]

Table 9 Population and Average Annual Growth by Provinces: 2006 and 2011

1 The population of the provinces of Alborz and Tehran for 2006 and their average annual growth have been calculated based on the data of 2011.

Unofficial Translation 17

Table 10 Population Percentages by Province: 2006 and 2011 (Percentage)

1 The population of the provinces of Alborz and Tehran for 2006 and their average annual growth have been calculated based on the data of 2011.

The largest linguistic group comprises speakers of Iranian languages, like modern Persian, Kurdish, Gilaki, Mazandarani, Luri, Talysh, and Balochi. Speakers of Turkic languages, most notably Azerbaijanis, which is by far the second-most spoken language in the country, but also the Turkmen, and the Qashqai peoples, comprise a substantial minority. The remainder are primarily speakers of Semitic languages such as Arabic and Assyrian. There are small groups using other Indo-European languages such as Armenian, Russian, Georgian (a member of the Kartvelian language family), spoken in a large pocket only by those Iranian Georgians that live in Fereydan, Fereydunshahr. Most of those Georgians who live in the north Iranian provinces of Gilan, Mazandaran, Isfahan, Tehran Province and the rest of Iran no longer speak the language.The Circassians in Iran, a very large minority in the past and speakers of the Circassian language, have been strongly assimilated and absorbed within the population in the past few centuries. However, significant pockets do exist spread over the country, and they are the second-largest Caucasus-derived group in the nation after the Georgians.[19][20]

Jews have had a continuous presence in Iran since the time of Cyrus the Great of the Achaemenid Empire. In 1948, there were approximately 140,000150,000 Jews living in Iran. According to the Tehran Jewish Committee, the Jewish population of Iran was (more recently) estimated at about 25,000 to 35,000, of which approximately 15,000 are in Tehran with the rest residing in Hamadan, Shiraz, Isfahan, Kermanshah, Yazd, Kerman, Rafsanjan, Borujerd, Sanandaj, Tabriz and Urmia. However, the official 2011 state census recorded only 8,756 Jews in Iran.[21]

The CIA World Factbook (which is based on 2013 statistics) gives the following numbers for the languages spoken in Iran today: Persian, Luri, Gilaki and Mazandarani 66%; Azerbaijani and other Turkic languages 18%; Kurdish 10%; Arabic 2%; Balochi 2%; others 2% (Armenian, Georgian, Circassian, Assyrian, etc.).[22]

Other sources, such as the Library of Congress, and the Encyclopedia of Islam (Leiden)[23] give Iran's ethnic groups as following: Persians 65%, Azerbaijanis 16%, Kurds 7%, Lurs 6%, Arabs 2%, Baloch 2%, Turkmens 1%, Turkic tribal groups (e.g. Qashqai) 1%, and non-Persian, non-Turkic groups (e.g. Armenians, Georgians, Assyrians, Circassians, Basseri ) less than 1%.[24] For sources prior to and after 2000, see Languages and ethnicities in Iran.

In addition to its international migration pattern, Iran also exhibits one of the steepest urban growth rates in the world according to the UN humanitarian information unit. According to 2015 population estimates, approximately 73.4 percent of Iran's population lives in urban areas, up from 27 percent in 1950.[25] Changes in urbanization law and regulations eased the urbanization process of rural areas, which created more than 400 cities only in the period of 1996-2005.[26]

The following is a list of the eight most populous cities in the country:

Religion in Iran by CIA

Other/Unspecifed (0.6%)

About 99% of the Iranians are Muslims; 90% belong to the Shi'a branch of Islam, the official state religion, and about 9% belong to the Sunni branch, which predominates in neighboring Muslim countries.[11] Less than 1% non-Muslim minorities include Christians, Zoroastrians, Jews, Bahs, Mandeans, and Yarsan. By far the largest group of Christians in Iran are Armenians under the Armenian Apostolic Church which has between 110,000,[29] 250,000,[30] and 300,000,[31] adherents. There are hundreds of Christian churches in Iran.[citation needed] The Bah Faith, Iran's largest non-Muslim religious minority with a population around 300,000, is not officially recognized (and therefore not included in the census results), and has been persecuted since in inception in Iran. Since the 1979 revolution the persecution of Bahs has increased with executions, the denial of civil rights and liberties, and the denial of access to higher education and employment.[32][33] Unofficial estimates for the Assyrian Christian population range between 20,000,[34][35] and 70,000.[37] The number of Iranian Mandaeans is a matter of dispute. In 2009, there were an estimated 5,000 and 10,000 Mandaeans in Iran, according to the Associated Press.[38] Whereas Alarabiya has put the number of Iranian Mandaeans as high as 60,000 in 2011.[39]

The term "Iranian citizens abroad" or " Iranian/Persian diaspora" refers to the Iranian people and their children born in Iran but living outside of Iran. Migrant Iranian workers abroad remitted less than two billion dollars home in 2006.[40]

As of 2010, there are about four to five million Iranians living abroad, mostly in the United States, Canada, Europe, Persian Gulf States, Turkey, Australia and the broader Middle East.[25][41] According to the 2000 Census and other independent surveys, there are an estimated 1 million Iranian-Americans living in the U.S., in particular, the Los Angeles area is estimated to be host to approximately 72,000 Iranians, earning the Westwood area of LA the nickname Tehrangeles.[42] Other metropolises that have large Iranian populations include Dubai with 300,000 Iranians, Vancouver, London, Toronto, San Francisco Bay Area, Washington D.C., Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Stockholm, Berlin, Hamburg and Frankfurt. Their combined net worth is estimated to be $1.3 trillion.[43]

Note that this differs from the other Iranian peoples living in other areas of Greater Iran, who are of related ethnolinguistical family, speaking languages belonging to the Iranian languages which is a branch of Indo-European languages.

Iran hosts one of the largest refugee population in the world, with more than one million refugees, mostly from Afghanistan (80%) and Iraq (10%). Since 2006, Iranian officials have been working with the UNHCR and Afghan officials for their repatriation.[44][45] Between 1979 and 1997, UNHCR spent more than US$1 billion on Afghan refugees in Pakistan but only $150 million on those in Iran. In 1999, the Iranian government estimated the cost of maintaining its refugee population at US$10 million per day, compared with the US$18 million UNHCR allocated for all of its operations in Iran in 1999.[45] As of 2016, some 300,000 work permits have been issued for foreign nationals in Iran.[46]

The following demographic statistics are from the CIA World Factbook, unless otherwise indicated.[47]

Age structure

Median age

Population growth rate

Birth rate

Death rate

Urbanization

Sex ratio

Life expectancy at birth

Total fertility rate

Youth literacy

Y-Chromosome DNA Y-DNA represents the male lineage, the Iranian Y-chromosome pool is as follows where haplogroups, R1 (25%), J2 (23%) G (14%), J1 (8%) E1b1b (5%), L (4%), Q (4%), comprise more than 85% of the total chromosomes.[49]

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) represents the female lineage. West Eurasian mtDNA makes up over 90% of the Iranian population on average. (2013).[51]

Among them, U3b3 lineages appear to be restricted to populations of Iran and the Caucasus, while the sub-cluster U3b1a is common in the whole Near East region.[51]

In Iran outliers in the Y-chromosomes and Mitochondrial DNA gene pool are consisted by the north Iranian ethnicities, such as the Gilaki's and Mazandarani's, whose genetic build up including chromosomal DNA are nearly identical to the major South Caucasian ethnicities, namely the Georgians, Armenians and Azerbaijani's. Other outliers are made by the Baloch people, representing a mere 1-2% of the total Iranian population, who have more patrilinial and mitochondrial DNA lines leaning towards northwest South Asian ethnic groups.

Levels of genetic variation in Iranian populations are comparable to the other groups from the Caucasus, Anatolia and Europe.[51]

The "Tats" are an Iranian people, presently living within Azerbaijan and Russia (mainly Southern Dagestan). The Tats are part of the indigenous peoples of Iranian origin in the Caucasus.[52][53][54]

Tats use the Tat language, a southwestern Iranian language and a variety of Persian[55][56][57][58][59] Azerbaijani and Russian are also spoken. Tats are mainly Shia Muslims, with a significant Sunni Muslim minority. Likely the ancestors of modern Tats settled in South Caucasus when the Sassanid Empire from the 3rd to 7th centuries built cities and founded military garrisons to strengthen their positions in this region.[60]

The Parsis are the close-knit Zoroastrian community based primarily in India but also found in Pakistan. Parsis are descended from Persian Zoroastrians who emigrated to the Indian subcontinent over 1,000 years ago. Indian census data (2001) records 69,601 Parsis in India, with a concentration in and around the city of Mumbai (previously known as Bombay). There are approximately 8,000 Parsis elsewhere on the subcontinent, with an estimated 2,500 Parsis in the city of Karachi and approximately 50 Parsi families in Sri Lanka. The number of Parsis worldwide is estimated to be fewer than 100,000 (Eliade, 1991:254).

In Pakistan and India, the term "Irani" has come to denote Iranian Zoroastrians who have migrated to Pakistan and India within the last two centuries, as opposed to most Parsis who arrived in India over 1000 years ago. Many of them moved during the Qajar era, when persecution of Iranian Zoroastrians was rampant. They are culturally and linguistically closer to the Zoroastrians of Iran. Unlike the Parsis, they speak a Dari dialect, the language spoken by the Iranian Zoroastrians in Yazd and Kerman. Their last names often resemble modern Iranian names, however Irani is a common surname among them. In India they are mostly located in modern-day Mumbai while in Pakistan they are mostly located in modern-day Karachi. In both Pakistan and India, they are famous for their restaurants and tea-houses.[61] Some, such as Ardeshir Irani, have also become very famous in cinema.

The "Ajam" are an ethnic community of Bahrain, of Iranian origin. They have traditionally been merchants living in specific quarters of Manama and Muharraq. The Iranians who adhere to Shiite sect of Islam are Ajam, and they are different from the Huwala. Ajams are also a large percentage of the populace in UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman.

In addition to this, many names of ancient villages in Bahrain are of Persian origin. It is believed that these names were given during the Safavid rule of Bahrain (15011722). i.e. Karbabad, Salmabad, Karzakan, Duraz, Barbar, which indicates that the history of Ajams is much older.

Huwala are the descendants of Persians and Arab-Persians who belong to the Sunni sect of Islam.[62] Huwala migrated from Ahvaz in Iran to the Persian Gulf in the seventeenth and eighteenth century.[62][63]

Go here to read the rest:
Demographics of Iran - Wikipedia

VIENNA, Dec 17 (Reuters) - The United Nations atomic watchdog has doubts that footage from a surveillance camera at an Iranian centrifuge-parts workshop is missing after an apparent attack there in June, even though Iran has not produced it, the agency's head said on Friday.

The issue was not addressed by an agreement between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency on Wednesday to let the IAEA re-install cameras at the Karaj workshop that Iran removed after the apparent attack, which Tehran blames on Israel.

The agreement should end a months-long standoff over IAEA access there.

Register

One of four IAEA cameras at Karaj was destroyed in the June incident. Iran removed all four cameras and showed them to the IAEA, but the destroyed camera's data storage device was not included. The IAEA and Western powers have been asking Iran to explain, unsuccessfully so far.

International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi attends a news conference during an IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, Austria, September 13, 2021. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger

Read More

"We have doubts about that and this is why we are asking, 'Where is it?" IAEA head Rafael Grossi told a news conference when asked if it was credible that the footage simply vanished.

"I am hopeful that they are going to come up with an answer because it's very strange that it disappears."

The agreement on Karaj avoided a diplomatic escalation that threatened to scupper wider talks on rescuing the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

The cameras are aimed at verifying Iran is not secretly siphoning off the parts for uranium-enriching centrifuges that are made there, but the footage will remain under seal in Iran, so the IAEA cannot view it for now, as has been the case at various locations since February.

The IAEA has not been able to verify whether Karaj has resumed operation but Grossi said "it would be a logical conclusion" that advanced centrifuges recently installed at Fordow, a site buried inside a mountain, came from there.

Register

Reporting by Francois Murphy; Editing by Kevin Liffey and Angus MacSwan

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Read the rest here:
IAEA chief has doubts that Iran surveillance camera's ...

TEL AVIV With diplomatic efforts to curb Irans nuclear program teetering, Israels defense minister has ordered his forces to prepare a military option, warning the world that Israel would take matters into its own hands if a new nuclear agreement did not sufficiently constrain Iran.

But several current and former senior Israeli military officials and experts say that Israel lacks the ability to pull off an assault that could destroy, or even significantly delay, Irans nuclear program, at least not anytime soon. One current high-ranking security official said it would take at least two years to prepare an attack that could cause significant damage to Irans nuclear project.

A smaller-scale strike, damaging parts of the program without ending it entirely, would be feasible sooner, experts and officials say. But a wider effort to destroy the dozens of nuclear sites in distant parts of Iran the kind of attack Israeli officials have threatened would be beyond the current resources of the Israeli armed forces.

Its very difficult I would say even impossible to launch a campaign that would take care of all these sites, said Relik Shafir, a retired Israeli Air Force general who was a pilot in a 1981 strike on an Iraqi nuclear facility.

In the world we live in, the only air force that can maintain a campaign is the U.S. Air Force, he said.

The recent discussion of a military attack on Iran is part of an Israeli pressure campaign to make sure that the countries negotiating with Iran in Vienna do not agree to what Israeli officials consider a bad deal, one that in their view would not prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

At the moment, there appears to be little chance of that as the talks, aimed at resurrecting the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, have only regressed since Irans new hard-line government rejoined them last month.

Until now, Israel has tried to curb Irans nuclear program, which it considers an existential threat, through a combination of aggressive diplomacy and clandestine attacks. Israeli officials considered it a coup when they were able to persuade President Donald J. Trump to withdraw from the 2015 agreement, which President Biden now wants to salvage.

Israel has also waged a shadow war through espionage, targeted assassinations, sabotage and cyberattacks smaller-scale operations that it has never formally claimed. Israel secretly considered mounting full-scale airstrikes in 2012 before abandoning the plan.

But as Irans nuclear enrichment program approaches weapons-grade levels, Israeli politicians have warned in increasingly open fashion what the world has long assumed: that Israel could turn to open warfare if Iran was allowed to make progress toward developing a nuclear weapon, a goal Iran denies.

In September, the head of the Israeli armed forces, Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, said large parts of a military budget increase had been allocated to preparing a strike on Iran. Early this month, the Mossad chief, David Barnea, said Israel would do whatever it takes to stop Iran from making a nuclear bomb.

This month, during a visit to the United States, Defense Minister Benny Gantz publicly announced that he had ordered the Israeli Army to prepare for a possible military strike on Iran.

But Israeli experts and military officials say that Israel currently lacks the ability to deal Irans nuclear program a knockout blow by air.

Iran has dozens of nuclear sites, some deep underground that would be hard for Israeli bombs to quickly penetrate and destroy, Mr. Shafir said. The Israeli Air Force does not have warplanes large enough to carry the latest bunker-busting bombs, so the more protected sites would have to be struck repeatedly with less effective missiles, a process that might take days or even weeks, Mr. Shafir added.

One current senior security official said Israel did not currently have the ability to inflict any significant damage to the underground facilities at Natanz and Fordow.

Such an effort would be complicated by a shortage of refueling planes. The ability to refuel is crucial for a bomber that may have to travel more than 2,000 miles round trip, crossing over Arab countries that would not want to be a refueling stop for an Israeli strike.

Israel has ordered eight new KC-46 tankers from Boeing at a cost of $2.4 billion but the aircraft are back-ordered and Israel is unlikely to receive even one before late 2024.

Aside from the ability to hit the targets, Israel would have to simultaneously fend off Iranian fighter jets and air-defense systems.

Any attack on Iran would also likely set off retaliatory attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, allies of Iran that would try to force Israel to fight a war on several fronts simultaneously.

Irans defense capabilities are also much stronger than in 2012, when Israel last seriously considered attacking. Its nuclear sites are better fortified, and it has more surface-to-surface missiles that can be launched swiftly from tunnels.

It is very possible that when the Israeli planes try to land back in Israel, they will find that the Iranian missiles destroyed their runways, said Tal Inbar, an aviation expert and former head of the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies, an aviation-focused research group.

Other military experts, however, say that Israel could still take out the most important elements of the Iranian nuclear apparatus, even without newer aircraft and equipment.

Its always good to replace a car from 1960 with a brand-new car from 2022, said Amos Yadlin, a former air force general who also participated in the 1981 strike. But we have refueling capabilities. We have bunker busters. We have one of the best air forces in the world. We have very good intelligence on Iran. We can do it.

Can the American Air Force can do it better? Definitely. They have a much more capable air force. But they dont have the will.

He cautioned that he would only support a strike as a last resort.

Israeli officials refuse to discuss the red lines Iran must cross to warrant a military strike. However, a senior defense official said that if Iran were to begin enriching uranium to 90 percent purity, weapons-grade fuel, Israel would be obliged to intensify its actions. American officials have said Iran is currently enriching uranium up to 60 percent purity.

The fact that it could take years to ramp up a program to carry out a massive air campaign against Iran should come as no surprise to Israeli military officials. When Israel considered such an attack in 2012, the preparations for it had taken more than three years, Israeli officials said.

But the distance between the current governments threats and its ability to carry them out has provoked criticism of the former prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who led Israels government until last June and was a dogged advocate for a harsher approach to Iran.

Since 2015, training for a strike on Iran had slowed, a senior Israeli military official said, as the defense establishment focused on confrontations with militias in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.

In 2017, the Israeli Air Force determined it needed to replace its refueling planes, but Mr. Netanyahus government did not order them until last March.

And another senior military official said the army had asked Mr. Netanyahu since 2019 for extra funds to improve Israels ability to attack Iran, but was rebuffed.

In a statement, Mr. Netanyahus office said the opposite was true, that it was Mr. Netanyahu who pushed for more resources and energy on a strike on Iran while the military chiefs insisted on spending most of their budget on other issues and slowed down preparations to strike Iran.

Were it not for the political, operational and budgetary actions led by Prime Minister Netanyahu over the past decade, Iran would have long had an arsenal of nuclear weapons, the statement added.

Whether or not Mr. Netanyahu restricted the funding, experts have said that the money under discussion would not have significantly changed the armys ability to attack Iran.

You can always improve buying more refueling airplanes, newer ones, bigger loads of fuel, Mr. Shafir said. But even with these improvements and a superior air force, he said, Israeli airstrikes would not end Irans nuclear program.

They would likely, however, set the region on fire.

Ronen Bergman reported from Tel Aviv, and Patrick Kingsley from Jerusalem. Myra Noveck contributed reporting from Jerusalem, and Rawan Sheikh Ahmad from Haifa, Israel.

Go here to read the rest:
Israeli Defense Officials Cast Doubt on Threat to Attack Iran - The New York Times