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A shooting war between the US and Iran would set off a chain of uncontrollable conflicts.

It is now two years since the signing of the historic nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers. According to the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has complied fully with the agreement. Yet the enmity between the US and Iran has reached fever pitch under Donald Trump's presidency.

Trump, with his Israeli and Arab allies, has squarely targeted Iran as the main culprit for almost all the problems bedevilling the Middle East. He denounced it as the source of instability and extremism in the region, and put it "on notice".

Some analysts have raised the spectre of a US-Iranian military confrontation. They include former US Middle East envoy Dennis Ross, who recently penned an article in Politico to this effect. While the Trump administration's Middle East policy remains very incoherent, a military engagement with Iran could be disastrous for all sides.

Iran is not an entirely innocent party in the conflicts raging in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Nor can it be dismissed as a source of growing Sunni-Shi'ite sectarian tensions and support for various sub-national groups, ranging from the Lebanese Hezbollah to the Iraqi Mahdi Army. Iran's involvement in these developments is part of a strategy of building a regional security architecture, stretching from Afghanistan to the Mediterranean. This, plus Iran's partnership with a re-assertive Russia, makes US concerns and those of its Arab allies, led by Saudi Arabia, understandable.

However, to blame solely Iran for the growing regional turmoil is to overlook other fundamental issues that darken the Middle East. It would be a gross oversight to ignore the role that the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the flawed US intervention in Afghanistan and invasion of Iraq, and the botched approach to the Syrian crisis have played in opening the space for Iran to extend its strategic reach.

It would equally be tragic to turn a blind eye to the tensions and conflicts that have gripped the Arab world, manifested in the so-called Arab spring popular uprisings, the Saudi Arabian-led Arab efforts to restore the status quo, and the funding that has gone from some Gulf Cooperation Council states, not just Qatar, to Syrian rebels. Some of this funding has ended up in the hands of such extremist groups as the al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra, or what is now called Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, and also indirectly to the self-proclaimed Islamic State as anti-Shi'ite and anti-Iran groups.

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The latest move by Saudi Arabia and two of its Gulf council GCC allies the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain plus Egypt, to isolate and punish one of their own, Qatar, on the grounds that the emirate was supporting Islamist terrorism, is a further example of the perpetual conflicts that have struck the Arab landscape. However, Qatar's pursuit of an autonomous regional policy, involving good working relations with Iran, seems to be the main irritant. The Saudi-led demands for lifting the blockade of Qatar included that Qatar downgrade its relations with Iran, close down its Al Jazeera TV network (the only media in the Arab domain that was critical of authoritarian practices in the Arab world) and sever all ties with the Muslim Brotherhood movement and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas in Gaza.

The Muslim Brotherhood's electoral victory in the 2012 Egyptian elections and its year-long term in government before the military overthrew it shocked the Egyptian establishment and challenged the political legitimacy of the Gulf monarchies to the extent they denounced the movement as a terrorist organisation. No Arab monarchy found the Muslim Brotherhood's rise more challenging than Saudi Arabia, which claims the leadership of the majority Sunni Islam against Iran's championship of the minority Shi'ite Islam. The Saudis and their allies dislike Hamas because it originally grew out of the Muslim Brotherhood, and because of its rule of Gaza, where Qatari humanitarian and reconstruction aid was been critical in making a difference to the lives of the mostly impoverished 2 million inhabitants of the strip under Israeli blockade since 2007.

Qatar rejected the Saudi-led demands as unrealistic and repugnant to its sovereignty. The blockade has already proved counterproductive, as it pushed Qatar further towards Turkey and Iran, which rushed military support and food supplies to the emirate respectively.

Coming on top of all this is the Trump administration's confused and contradictory rhetoric and action. Its lambasting of Iran as the source of all evils in the region belies its confirmation that Iran has honoured the nuclear agreement and the unspoken fact that it has shared the US's fight against Islamic States.

Whatever the final outcome of the US-Iranian hostilities, if it leads to a shooting war it is bound to set off a chain of uncontrollable conflicts in the region. Iran does not possess the military strength and firepower to withstand a sustained attack by the US or, for that matter, Israel, or both. However, it is resourceful enough to make any attack very costly for its perpetrators by engaging in asymmetrical warfare and causing an inferno across the region. A combination of Iranian fierce nationalism and Shi'ite allegiance, as well as regional links, could make such a conflict very expensive and protracted. Russian involvement could widen beyond Syria, where the risk of a major-power confrontation is now also high.

No Arab monarchy found the Muslim Brotherhood's rise in Egypt more challenging than Saudi Arabia.

Amin Saikal is distinguished professor of political science and director of the ANU's Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia). He is the author of Iran at the Crossroads (Polity Press, 2016). amin.saikal@anu.edu.au

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Qatar crisis: Iran is not the only catalyst of the Middle East's turmoil - The Canberra Times

Iranian President Hassan Rohani has criticized major dam projects by Turkey on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers.

Rohani is demanding that Turkey halt construction of both dams, saying that they were "dangerous" for the entire Middle East.

Rohani made the comments during a conference on sandstorms in Tehran on July 3.

He did not name Turkey but said that multiple dams planned on the two major rivers that flow into Syria and Iraq will have "destructive consequences" and affect many, including Iran.

Turkey's control of the headwaters of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers is controversial in the Middle East.

Critics say decisions made by Turkey have led to water shortages in Syria and Iraq and have contributed to regional instability and wars.

Syrian Kurds in February accused Turkey of cutting off water supplies to the Euphrates River as a form of political pressure.

Activists warn that the dam on the Tigris River at the Turkish village of Ilisu will reduce the water flow to the marshlands of southern Iraq and threaten their existence.

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Iranian President Criticizes Turkey's Dam Projects - RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

Ali Akbar Velayati (R), senior advisor to Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, shakes hands with Christian Masset, secretary general of the French foreign affairs ministry, in Tehran on July 3, 2017. (Photo by Tasnim news agency)

A senior adviser to Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei says Iran will resist any plot aimed at weakening or dividing up countries in the Middle East.

Undoubtedly, regional nations will never yield to the demands of extremist movements and their allies and it is better to take steps forthe establishment of regional peace, stability and security through international will, Ali Akbar Velayati, who advises the Leader on international affairs, said in a meeting with Christian Masset, secretary general of the French foreign affairs ministry, in Tehran on Monday.

He urged the European Union and Western countries to take up more independent policies vis-a-vis regional and international issues.

On the West Asian and North African issues, global cooperation and coordination as well as firm determination and will must be establishedto counter extremist, Takfiri and terrorist movements, Velayati said.

He added that some countries are exploiting tensions and crises in the region and are not interested in the establishment of regional peace and stability.

However, Iran has over the past yearsbeen standing up against and resisting all these movements that have disturbed global peace and security, the senior Iranian official said.

In line with its principled and fundamental policy, Iran wants the preservation of the territorial integrity of regional countries, he added.

Velayati also expressed Irans readiness to cooperate with France and other countries seeking to promote global peace and stability.

Elsewhere in his remarks, he pointed to deep-rooted relations between Tehran and Paris and called on the two countries officials to take more serious steps to boost cooperation and remove obstacles in the path to such ties.

Common Iran-France stance on regional issues

The French official, for his part, said Tehran and Paris have common stance on regional issues.

Masset also said the two countries enjoy deep-rooted relations and must use their potential to further expand cooperation.

The French foreign ministry official is visiting Tehran few days after Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif traveled to Paris on the third leg of a European tour on Thursday. The top Iranian diplomat held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron, his French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian and President of the French Senate Gerard Larcher.

See the article here:
Iran will resist divisive plots in Mideast: Leader's aide - Press TV

According to her husband, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffes arrest may be connected to her work for Reuters and the BBC. Photograph: Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe/PA

A British-Iranian woman serving a five-year jail sentence in Tehran on unspecified charges relating to national security is losing her hair and experiencing low and despairing moods as her incarceration lasts far beyond her familys expectation.

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffes conviction was upheld by Irans supreme court in April, one year after her arrest. Her husband, Richard Ratcliffe, has told the Guardian that he is now focusing on political pressure, urging the UK government to take up her case more seriously after recent elections in both countries.

Ratcliffe said while his wifes physical health has become more stable, she is applying to see a psychologist, as she says her mood is very unstable quick to sink into depression.

We dont know how long this will last, he said. Weve had Irans elections and UK elections and theres no obvious sign of anything moving, the whole court case is finished, there is basic powerlessness that theres nothing we can do.

Zaghari-Ratcliffe, 38, was arrested in April 2016 while she and her then two-year-old daughter, Gabriella, were about to return to the UK after a family visit to Iran. Since then, she has spent most of her time in Tehrans Evin prison, away from her daughter.

The Revolutionary Guards, the elite forces that arrested her at the airport, have accused her of attempting to orchestrate a soft overthrow of the Islamic Republic. Her husband condemned the criminal charges as a self-serving fabrication, indicating in a petition update that her imprisonment might be connected to her work as a project manager at the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the news agencys charitable arm, and her previous work at the BBC in London.

Iranian authorities loathe the BBC because of its Persian service, which is watched by millions of Iranians via illegal satellite dishes. Reuters journalists were expelled from Iran after their Tehran office was closed down in April 2012.

Ratcliffe said he is going to meet Alistair Burt, the new foreign office minister, next week. Now that weve exhausted possibilities in Iran, its time to put the focus back on pushing the British government to do more, he added.

I dont think the [UK] government has been protecting us; they have provided consular assistance and they have expressed concerns, and the ambassador has been to visit Gabriella to check she is OK, but in terms of criticising her treatment and saying its abuse, theyve never said that this does not meet the minimum legal standards, that its not a fair trial. That this is a nonsense. Shes obviously not important enough yet.

Ratcliffe said he was upset the UK government always emphasised that she is a dual national, rather than shes a British citizen. Iran cant play these games, it doesnt recognise dual citizenship on one hand and on the other hand, theyve been holding her until she gets some sort of agreement with the British government.

A string of dual nationals languish in Iranian jails, but exactly how many is unclear. One lawyer has put the number as high as 40. Among dual nationals behind bars are Karan Vafadari, an Iranian-American national belonging to the Zoroastrian faith, and his wife Afarin Neyssari. Kamal Foroughi, a British-Iranian businessman, has been imprisoned in Iran since 2011.

Also in jail is Ahmadreza Djalali, a scientist from Sweden. Foreign Policy reported this week that the UN chief, Antnio Guterres, has reached out to Irans president, Hassan Rouhani, regarding the imprisonment of Iranian-American Baquer Namazi, a former Unicef official, who has been given 10 years alongside his son, Siamak Namazi.

It seems to be that there are different motives at different times but broadly, Nazanin was part of a wave of people that were taken for what feels to me internal politics between different parts of the Iranian regime fighting with each other, Ratcliffe said.

There clearly is a phenomenon, its got a domestic policy aspect, its got a foreign policy aspect and its something that weve been pushing the UN special rapporteur to try and take up you cannot hold people like this as a tool of foreign policy.

He said he recognised that Rouhani was not driving the treatment of his wife but appealed for him to help. She was taken by the Revolutionary Guards, and the judiciary its a different part of the regime [but Rouhani] can make it very clear that this has to stop; its not good for Iran. Normal Iranians are being held like this. Its affecting Irans image globally.

Nazanin voted for President Rouhani this time, she voted for President Rouhani last time, that really was with a view that his promises of improving civil rights and of allowing Iran to become a normal, proud country.

Ratcliffe said his wifes case had been hijacked by opposition figures that pictures from their campaign were used by those who want to justify very strong action against Iran.

It just looks terrible ... allowing those voices that want to do terrible things to Iran to point and say, look what these people are doing, I think the human cost of it is not small.

An official from the Iranian embassy in London told the Guardian in April that Zaghari-Ratcliffe has been detained due to her illegal acts, but she had access to medical care and could visit her family.

Earlier this month, she was able to meet her daughter in prison during a family visit, marking her third birthday. She was able to make a cherry cake, which the family were allowed to take home to eat, according to a petition update posted by her husband.

The British-Iranian wrote a letter addressed to her daughter from inside prison, according to Irans defenders of human rights centre. In it, she recounted memories of her birth, times of feeding and sleeping, and the hiccups and the non-stop sneezes.

But those sweet and beautiful days did not last long, she wrote. Our trip to Iran last Norouz [2016], when you were 22 months, was one of no return.

The past 14 months, my share of you is only the occasional hour in the visiting room at Evin prison. How young you are to be forced to go through such a horrible experience?

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British-Iranian woman jailed in Tehran in state of 'despair' - The Guardian

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US reps. slam Iran nuclear deal at Tehran regime opponents' summit - The Jerusalem Post