Archive for the ‘Iran’ Category

Secretary Tillerson, It’s Time to Phone Iran – The American Conservative

When ten American sailors found themselves captives of Irans Revolutionary Guards Corps in the Persian Gulf last year, then-Secretary John Kerry secured their freedom in less than sixteen hours. He used a remarkable instrument to score this stunning victory: A telephone.

Within hours of their capture, Kerry had his Iranian counterpart, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, on the line. They spoke five times that evening, but they already had a deal by the second call. The subsequent conversations served to handle logistical issues and resolve problems and misunderstandings that arose along the way.

For instance, at one point U.S. Navy ships and helicopters were approaching the Iranian island where the sailors were kept. Please tell your navy not to get close, Zarif told Kerry, his tone revealing the urgency of the matter. We dont want a military confrontation. But if your planes get close, we will have serious trouble. Kerry immediately hung up and called General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to urge him to pull back. Were risking potential escalation here, Kerry told the general. They were giving us positive indications that they are gonna release these guys, so we should back off the helicopters for now and test if this is real. Dunford complied, and a dangerous confrontation was avoided. To prove that the sailors were safe, Zarif emailed a picture of them from his Gmail account to Kerrys State Department email.

It had taken two years of intense discussions and negotiations for Kerry and Zarif to build the rapport that enabled them to so quickly resolve unforeseen crises such as that of the U.S. sailors. But once the channel of communications and the rapport had been established, its utility and efficiency was unquestionable. Indeed, the sailors incident could have ended up as another prolonged hostage crisis. Instead, most Americans have not even heard of their mishap.

Today, there are many unforeseen crises that risk bringing the U.S. and Iranindeed, the entire Middle Eastinto direct confrontation. The U.S. and Iran have a shared interest in defeating ISIS in Iraq, but after the fall of Mosul, the balance of their interest may lead them in a more confrontational direction. A similar dynamic is playing out in Syria, where the U.S. already has shot down Iranian drones and bombed Iranian-sponsored groups. Moreover, tensions in the Persian Gulf are rising as Saudi Arabia appears to have received a green light from the Trump administration to double down on confrontation and bullying.

Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates had no illusions about the end goal of the Saudis. The Saudis always want to fight the Iranians to the last American, he told his French counterpart in 2010. Since then, the Saudi appetite for a U.S.-Iran war has only grown.

Despite these hotspots, the Trump administration and Secretary Rex Tillerson have allowed the hotline with Tehran to go cold. Despite the significant risk of war, not a single phone call has taken place between Tillerson and Zarif. Not a single attempt at resolving the tensions diplomatically has been made.

When asked about diplomacy with Iran during his visit to the Saudi kingdom, Tillerson said that he had no plans to reach out to Iran, although he didnt rule it out in the future.

That is simply not good enough. It is the foremost responsibility of the President and his administration to keep America safe and to only put American servicemen and women in harms way once all other options have been exhausted.

On both of these counts, the Trump administration doesnt just fail, they fail abysmally because they havent even tried. The United States is about to sleepwalk into yet another devastating war in the Middle East without a debate as to whether such an escalation lies in the U.S.s national interest, and without the Trump administration even giving lip service to diplomacy. Other potential foes in the world observe this behavior as they consider the payoff of peaceful engagement with the U.S. versus conflict. Do we want to send those actors the message that the U.S. shoots first and asks questions later?

The George W. Bush administration at least had the decency to lie to the American public when it sold the electorate the Iraq War. And however skewed and faulty, the Iraq War was preceded by a debate and a vote in Congress. Though President Bush eschewed diplomacy, he nevertheless presented a deeply flawed case as to why diplomacy no longer was an option. Trump and Tillerson simply dont even bother.

The Trump administrations recklessness is endangering America and putting American servicemen and women at risk. If Tillerson was supposed to be the adult in the room steering Trump in the right direction, he needs to start to act the part.

Before the escalation with Iran reaches a point of no return, diplomacy must be given a chance. That responsibility falls on Mr. Tillerson. The former Exxonmobil CEO has Zarifs number. Its time he places a call.

Trita Parsi is the author of Losing an Enemy Obama, Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy. He is the president of the National Iranian American Council.

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Secretary Tillerson, It's Time to Phone Iran - The American Conservative

‘This country is WORSE than North Korea’ Rudy Giuliani says US fears new ‘biggest enemy’ – Daily Star

THE United States fears what one country will do even more than North Korea, an adviser to President Donald Trump has warned.

Rudy Giuliani, the ex-Mayor of New York, warned Iran is the countrys biggest fear right now.

Speaking after a conference in Paris earlier this month, he said the nation poses a greater threat than both Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin.

Mr Giuliani was attending a rally in Paris organised by the Peoples Mojahedin Organisation of Iran (PMOI), which is the largest and most active opposition movement to the regime.

The Paris-based group supports a totally secular political system in the hardline Islamic country.

GETTY

Since 2008, photographer Eric Lafforgue ventured to North Korea six times. Thanks to digital memory cards, he was able to save photos that was forbidden to take inside the segregated state

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Taking pictures in the DMZ is easy, but if you come too close to the soldiers, they stop you

Mr Giuliani said: Iran is our biggest enemy, Iran is our fiercest enemy. It is the greatest danger to freedom in the world.

Our long term danger is Iran.

Iran [is] a bigger threat than North Korea, it is expanding into an empire. North Korea is contained.

They have more technological capability and they have what is truly an insane regime.

In North Korea, were not sure about Kim Jong-un and we do have the hope that China can contain him.

As tension between the US and Iran mounts, with President Donald Trump rattling his sabres ever louder, Iranians take to the street to protest.

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Iranian people burn an effigy of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Iran is our biggest enemy, Iran is our fiercest enemy. It is the greatest danger to freedom in the world

Tensions between the US and North Korea are at an all time high.

The secretive state has repeatedly threatened to blast the US with nuclear weapons, with supreme leader Kim even saying it would be a "piece of cake" to drop a nuke on the country.

But Mr Giuliani,who was Mayor of New York at the time of the September 11 terror attacks, warned the Iranian regimes downfall cant be brought about via military action.

He said it would happen through a civilian revolution within the Middle Eastern superpower, which the United States can only help bring about through economic sanctions.

The [regime change] needs to happen from within. How did the regime change in the Soviet Union or Poland or in the Czech Republic? No army came in.

"The people finally rose up and they were just too much for the military to contain, he explained.

Kim Jong-un used the annual "Day of the Sun" parade in Pyongyang to make a chilling display of the country's burgeoning nuclear power and military might

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Military vehicles carrying missiles believed to be North Korean KN-08 Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

His comments come as the PMOI again accused the international community of ignoring the global threat posed by Iran.

Last year, Europe and the United States, under President Barack Obama, lifted sanctions including oil and financial penalties placed on the country over its expanding nuclear programme.

They also unfroze approximately $100billion of its assets after inspectors said crucial parts of its nuclear capabilities had been dismantled something the PMOI claims is a lie.

Urging the reintroduction of sanctions, Mr Giuliani said the US has the power to tighten the noose around the regime.

He said that because three-quarters of substantial global trade is done via American banks, Iran could be squeezed financially to such an extent it would spark major unrest in the country.

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'This country is WORSE than North Korea' Rudy Giuliani says US fears new 'biggest enemy' - Daily Star

The United States and Europe are on a collision course over Iran – Washington Post

ISTANBUL When the French energy giant Total signed a landmark gas deal with Iran this month, the companys chief executive lauded the nearly $5 billion investment as a trailblazing initiative for peace.

Were here to build bridges, not walls, Patrick Pouyann said in an interview with Agence France-Presse at the signing ceremony in Tehran.

The venture, which includes Chinas National Petroleum Corp. and the Iranian company Petropars, will develop the South Pars gas field under a 20-year contract. It is Irans the first major energy contract with a European firm since a nuclear deal with world powers lifted sanctions on Iran last year.

Economic development is also a way of building peace, Pouyann said.

Pouyanns remarks reflect a broader vision among European leaders for improving ties with Iran, in part by encouraging firms such as Total to invest now that major sanctions are gone. But his comments also highlight the growing rift between the United States and Europe over how to engage with Iran, which the Trump administration has identified as a global menace and singled out for sanctions and isolation.

Since Donald Trump took office, Europe and the United States have pursued increasingly different courses on Iran, casting doubt over the future of the nuclear accord, which limits Iranian nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief and other trade.

For Europe, the nuclear deal negotiated in 2015 has facilitated relations with a key if problematic player in the Middle East, while opening a vast consumer and energy market to European companies.

[Trump administration plans to certify Iranian compliance with nuclear agreement]

Many European banks and firms have been reluctant to jump in, but French, German and Italian companies have also invested in everything from renewable energy to luxury hotels and auto manufacturing. On Thursday, the French company that makes Peugeot and Citroen cars said its sales nearly tripled in the Middle East and Africa in the first half of the year because of new production in Iran.

The Europeans are returning, the Chinese are returning, the Russians, Ukrainians its all over the place, said Fabien Dany, a Tehran-based consultant who advises companies on the Iranian market. There are very big companies with appetites for investment in Iran, he said. And theyre going through with it.

But in Washington, the agreement, which was negotiated by the Obama administration, has been portrayed as a boon for a repressive regime that threatens the region. Some in the White House are pushing for harsher measures against Iran, which they say should not go unpunished for activities such as ballistic-missile development.

In April, the administration informed Congress that Iran was in compliance with the deal, a certification it must make every 90 days. But it also put the accord under review with the option to abandon it entirely. On Monday, the administration plans to certify again. Officials have said the policy review should be completed before the next certification is due in October.

In the meantime, the Treasury Department has not even said whether it will allow companies such as Boeing to do business with Iran, despite potential sales the firm says would create tens of thousands of American jobs.

There is a clear division between where the Europeans are going and where the Americans are going on Iran, said Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. The Europeans have embarked on a path of rapprochement. The U.S. is looking at a policy of isolationism and containment.

The optics of Totals $4.8billion investment, which analysts say has the backing of the French government, were seen as, Were going ahead despite all the uncertainties of the U.S. administration, Geranmayeh said. The Europeans are messaging: Our foreign policy on Iran now is different to yours in Washington. Were not just going to automatically follow suit.

Critics of the European approach, and of the deal more generally, say the pro-business attitude has blinded the international community to incremental violations of the accord by Iran, as well as more nefarious activities in the region.

Iran, critics point out, has twice breached the limit the accord places on heavy water, a chemical used in nuclear reactors capable of yielding plutonium. Still, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the body tasked with monitoring Irans nuclear program, certified in June that it was in compliance with the agreement.

Europe sees Irans violations as individual and accidental, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank. FDD has taken a critical stance on the deal, and its chief executive, Mark Dubowitz, has publicly urged Persian Gulf states to refuse to work with companies that do business with Iran.

Because European businesses want to return to Iran, they are inclined to downplay those violations, Taleblu said, adding that U.S. officials believe that the violations add up to something much more nefarious.

But should the White House decide to pull out of the accord or push for a renegotiation of the deal, analysts say, the United States would struggle to bring Europe and other signatories such as Russia or China on board. The administration would also face obstacles enforcing a stricter sanctions regime without support from other world powers.

European nations have been pretty open about their commitment to the deal and readiness to counter any U.S. opposition, said Richard Nephew, former principal deputy coordinator for sanctions policy at the State Department.

The Total deal in particular says that the company itself and likely the French government are prepared to battle a U.S. decision to snap back the sanctions for anything less than a very good reason, he said.

Geranmayeh said European leaders are already discussing contingency planning for if the U.S. were to overtly or covertly start to interfere with European foreign policy on Iran.

The Europeans are playing the middle ground and are trying their best to keep the Americans on board with them, she said. But they are also saying, If there is unreasonable obstruction to that, we are going to be looking at what our options are.

Karen DeYoung in Washington contributed to this report.

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The United States and Europe are on a collision course over Iran - Washington Post

This London-based investor says Iran holds huge promise and it’s not just in energy – CNBC

Iran has piqued financial interest throughout the world for its massive energy reserves, but the country actually has a host of other opportunities in less obvious areas, according to one global investor.

For Clemente Cappello, CIO of London-based Sturgeon Capital, Iran holds promise in part for its cheap labor, abundance of natural resources, and well-educated youth. Specific sectors that could benefit from this mix include glass, manufacturing and petrochemicals, he explained, but Iran could also grow its technology sector.

In fact, the country already has local versions of Uber, Amazon and eBay.

In addition, Cappello mentioned that he thinks "equity opportunity is the easiest and most profitable" option in the country. Stocks, he said, are trading on average of six times price-to-earnings ratio, dividend yields are "well into the double digits" and interest rates could soon be cut in half.

Iran's recent election in May could provide a strong mandate for President Hassan Rouhani to continue with a foreign policy of re-integrating Iran's economy with the rest of the world, and also with his domestic economic reforms, especially in the troubled banking sector.

Cappello, who launched Sturgeon Capital's Iranian fund, told CNBC's "Street Signs" that service providers such as banks are the "real obstacle" for foreign investors. Those banks, he said, "are not keen to do business with Iran."

The investor also highlighted the risk foreign investors run when they lack understanding about the changing Iranian business dynamics. Other risks associated with doing business in Iran include not understanding the stakeholder structure of entities, he said.

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This London-based investor says Iran holds huge promise and it's not just in energy - CNBC

House wants to link North Korea sanctions to measure on Russia and Iran sanctions – Washington Post

House Republican leaders want to attach a bill increasing sanctions on North Korea to legislation to restrain the president and stiffen punitive measures against Russia and Iran, a last-minute wrinkle that could further delay the bills progress through Congress.

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said on the House floor Friday that he believes the North Korea sanctions bill, which the House passed in May on a 419 to 1 vote, should be added to the legislation increasing sanctions against Russia and Iran.

It would be a very strong statement for all of America to get that sanction bill completed and done, and to the presidents desk, McCarthy said.

But Democrats are furious at the change, which they see as a last-minute effort by one of the presidents closest allies in Congress to derail the Russia-Iran sanctions bill just as congressional leaders had agreed on a way to resolve their differences.

Democrats are absolutely not in agreement with adding North Korea sanctions, said one House Democratic aide. This is another delay tactic. This is moving the goal posts again.

The Russia and Iran sanctions bill, which the Senate passed last month on a vote of 98 to 2, stalled as lawmakers argued over technical changes House Republicans leaders insisted were necessary to get the measure through their chamber. At issue was an alleged blue slip violation arising from the fact that bills affecting revenue must originate in the House and a disagreement over how lawmakers would be able to bring up measures to block the president should he ever try to scale back sanctions against Russia.

The bill codified existing sanctions against Russia, while stepping up punitive measures over its interference in Syria, Ukraine and the 2016 U.S. election; it also increases sanctions against Iran for recent ballistic missile tests. But critically, the bill would give Congress a 30-day window to check the president before he could make any changes to existing sanctions policy against Russia, including scaling back the punitive measure the United States has against Moscow.

The Trump administration has vocally objected to this provision, though they say they are otherwise comfortable with the increased sanctions under the bill. But lawmakers have been wary of the presidents warm approach to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Trumps reticence to endorse the intelligence communitys conclusion that Russia was behind a series of hacks and disinformation campaigns to swing the outcome of the 2016 election in Trumps favor. Many lawmakers are concerned that absent a congressional check on his authority, the president might try to scale back sanctions against Russia particularly by returningcontrol to Moscow of two compounds that the Obama administration wrested from Russia in late 2016 as punishment for alleged meddling in the 2016 campaign.

Earlier this week, Democrats objected that House Republicans were trying to prevent the minority from ever bringing up a resolution under the bill to block President Trump from making changes to sanctions policy, absent Republican approval. But as of Friday, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Democrats were ready to let their complaint go.

I dont like that, I want to protect the prerogatives of the minorities in the House, but weighing the equities, what was more important was passing the Russia-Iran sanctions bill, she said. So we are on board to just proceed.

House Democrats, who also voted overwhelmingly for the North Korea sanctions package this spring, could decide to attach the measure to the Russia-Iran bill. But doing so likely creates a serious hurdle for the bill in the Senate, where lawmakers have not examined the Houses North Korea sanctions bill and will probably want to consider a bipartisan sanctions measure of their own, unveiled by Sens. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Patrick J. Toomey (R-Pa.) this week.

The senators measure would give Congress review power over any changes the president might try to make to North Korea sanctions policy that is almost identical to the review power over Russia sanctions written into the Russia-Iran bill. Congressional review is not a part of the Houses North Korea bill.

On Thursday, the chairs of the Senate Banking and Foreign Relations committees said they were still reviewing the senators North Korea bill, but were generally supportive of including congressional review power in such measures.

Foreign Relations Committee chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) also said Thursday that as he understood it, it was a possibility that House leaders might try to attach North Korea sanctions to the Russia-Iran package, but that the chances were slim probably a four-percenter, as he put it.

On Friday, Corker said that he would be more than glad to take a close look at tying North Korea sanctions to the Russia-Iran bill if this is the path they choose in the House.

There is no question that we need to apply more pressure to North Korea, he said.

Rep. Steny H. Hoyer (D-Md.), reacting to McCarthys proposal Friday, said: We want to get this done as soon as possible, and Im urging the majority to move quickly. Id be pleased if we could move next week.

House leaders have been frustrated that the Senate has not taken steps in the past two months to take up the Houses North Korea sanctions package.

Senators are not likely, however, to agree to approve comprehensive North Korea sanctions legislation without conducting some vetting first. And that could leave Congress at least at an impasse that, if it extends to the August recess, would mean that it could be months before any sanctions measures against Russia or North Korea proceed.

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House wants to link North Korea sanctions to measure on Russia and Iran sanctions - Washington Post