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The assault on Raqqa, the capital of the Islamic States self-declared caliphate, is about to begin, and the end of ISIS is in sight. But so is the end of the tacit tactical alliance between Iran and the United States.

For a time, the old adversaries cooperated against their common enemy. The United States provided the Iraqi government and Iranian-backed Shiite militias with air support to help them seize control over the Iraqi cities of Tikrit in April 2015 and large parts of Mosul by February 2017. However, as these same Iraqi Shiite militias pursue fleeing ISIS elements to oil-rich Deir Ezzour in neighboring Syria, they confront United States special-operations forces and an American-backed coalition of Syrian rebel groups.

In Iraq, the U.S. is working with Iraqi government forces and Iranian-backed Shiite militias in a joint struggle against ISIS. In Syria however, the United States supports the moderate opposition to Bashar al-Assads regime, while Iran and its Shiite proxies are engaged in a relentless effort to eliminate opposition forces and secure the survival of the very same regime.

The Fatal Flaw in Trump's ISIS Plan

On Tuesday, June 6, U.S.-led coalition fighter jets bombed Syrian government soldiers and, according to some reports, Shiite Iraqi militia members in the al-Tanf region in southeastern Homs province, where since May 2015 a contingent of U.S. troops has been training Syrian opposition forces. It was the second time in less than a month that coalition forces had attacked Syrian regime forces and their allies as they headed toward the al-Tanf garrison. On May 18, coalition planes pounded a convoy headed toward al-Tanf.

The scene is set for a zero-sum game: Iran and its allied Shiite militias want the area to establish an overland corridor to the Syrian-Israeli border, the Mediterranean, and Lebanon. In the first year of the Syrian Civil War, the late Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani likened such an overland corridor to a string of pearls [reshteh-ye morvarid] that would connect Iran with its regional allies all the way from western Afghanistan to Lebanon, allowing Tehran to consolidate its sphere of influence across the Levant and facilitate arms shipments to Hezbollah. The American strategy is not clear, but the United States needs to control the area to cut Irans expansionism, which is causing alarm among Washingtons key Arab allies and Israel. Unrestricted Iranian access to Lebanese Hezbollah is not only likely to further strengthen the organization, but risks emboldening the group to provoke another war with Israel.

Iran and its Shiite coalition, which has sacrificed blood and treasure to maintain control over Syria, is not likely to restrain itself in the endgame against ISIS. Four hundred and ninety Iranians, 1,063 Lebanese Hezbollah fighters, 653 Afghans, 144 Pakistanis, and at least 94 Iraqi Shia, by my count, have sacrificed their lives in Syria, and they did not do so just to back off at the last moment. Nor is the Trump administration in a position to back off; it has promised Americas Sunni allies it will contain and curtail Irans power.

Potential for escalation of the conflict between Tehran and Washington is very real. The brazen acts of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Forcewhich is tasked with exporting Irans revolution beyond Irans bordersand attempts at testing or tarnishing American power and prestige, risk provoking heavy-handed responses. In the Persian Gulf and Shat al-Arab waterway, for example, the IRGC Navy engages in systematic provocations against the Americas Fifth Fleet, and has previously taken British and American sailors as prisoners of warreleasing them only after extensive use of their photos in humiliating positions in government-controlled media. There are still no reports of Iranian casualties among those killed in Americas recent bombardments of Syrian government and allied Shiite convoys headed to Syria. But the U.S. military response is not likely to deter the IRGC, and it is doubtful if the IRGC leadership would have any other choice but responding in kind in an attempt to avoid losing face in front of the Iranian public.

Such dynamics are not only likely to escalate tensions between Iran and the United States, but could also fuel the vicious cycle of violence for which Tehran is ill-prepared.

There are, however, also a few mitigating factors. Even after the implosion of the Islamic State and its self-proclaimed caliphate, disgruntled Sunnis in Iraq and Syria are likely to rebel against Iran and its Shiite proxies. Regional Sunni powers are just as likely to come to their aid in an attempt to reestablish the regional balance of power. Given such prospects, Tehran is not likely to want an all-out war against Washington. The question is whether Tehrans leadershipor Washingtonscan prevent it.

More here:
America and Iran Hurtle Toward Confrontation in Syria - The Atlantic

With Adam Rawnsley

Shooting war. Is this what the start of a war looks like? Near At Tanf, two strikes destroyed two tactical vehicles and a UAS. The line comes from the tally of airstrikes the U.S. Central Command emails to reporters each morning, blandly listing each days strikes against Islamic State targets in Iraq and Syria. Only in Fridays note, the targets were Iranian-backed Shiite militias fighting in support of the regime of Syrias Bashar al Assad.

An American F-15 shot down a pro-regime drone that dropped a munition on U.S.-backed forces near the U.S. garrison at al Tanf on Thursday, narrowly missing the patrol which was accompanied by U.S. forces. The armed drone, which was likely an Iranian-made Shahed-129, was wiped out only hours after other U.S. jets bombed two vehicles which had strayed too close to the base. The Daily Beast has a good run down on the Iranian drone, and its operations in Syria.

New threat for U.S. troops in Syria. The attack, which U.S. military officials say caused no casualties or damage to equipment, was the first time U.S.-backed forces had been targeted by a drone in Syria, and indicates that the Bashar al Assad regime and his Iranian backers are willing to target American and coalition troops directly, FPs Paul McLeary writes. It also came just after American warplanes struck Shiite militias, backed by Iran, for the third time in as many weeks near the U.S. garrison at al Tanf.

A U.S. Defense official said Thursday the drone strike came outside of a 55-mile buffer zone the U.S. enforces around al Tanf, but that U.S.-backed forces, along with their American and international advisors, regularly patrol outside of the area. More here from FPs Dan De Luce and Paul McLeary on where this emerging conflict between Washington and Tehran in Syria might be headed.

More trouble for Qatar. Arab countries put 12 organizations and 59 people on a terror sanctions list early Friday they described as being associated with Qatar, the AP reports Friday morning, the latest in a growing diplomatic dispute thats seen the energy rich nation isolated by Saudi Arabia and others. As of Thursday, Pentagon officials were telling SitRep that operations at the massive Al Udeid air base in Qatar the operational hub of the war in Iraq and Syria were proceeding as normal, though there were some worries about keeping the 11,000 troops on the base supplied in the long term if the blockade by Gulf countries continues.

The Wall Street Journal notes, Qatar may be tiny, but thats where all the major fault lines in the Middle East are converging these days. The sudden cutoff of ties with Qatar by several Saudi-led Arab states has already turned into a proxy fight between supporters and opponents of political Islam and between partners and enemies of Iran.

Its awful lonely out there on the Qatar Peninsula, according to a new batch of satellite imagery posted by Bellingcat. The open source investigative outlet published photos showing that the Saudis have completely cut off vehicle traffic to Qatars As Salwa border crossing. Qatar is dependent on goods delivered across its land border with Saudi Arabia for much of its imports.

Kurds going for it. Iraqi Kurds have finally set a date for their long-discussed referendum on independence from the rest of Iraq, with the Kurdistan Regional Government calling for a vote on Sept. 25, FPs Keith Johnson and Emily Tamkin write.

The decision, announced by KRG president Masoud Barzani on Twitter, is sure to spark a showdown with Baghdad, which has for years sought to keep the restive Kurds inside a barely functioning Iraqi state. The U.S. State Department says it is concerned the referendum will distract Baghdad from the fight against the Islamic State. Turkey, unsurprisingly, thinks the move is a terrible mistake.

ISIS has killed hundreds in Mosul. Meanwhile, Islamic State fighters have shot and killed hundreds of civilians in Mosul over the past two weeks, as the Iraqi army tightens the circle around the last remaining holdouts the United Nations said on Thursday. It is estimated that as many as 200,000 civilians remain trapped by the fighters in their dwindling pocket of control in the western half of Mosul.

Welcome to SitRep. Send any tips, thoughts or national security events to paul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.com or via Twitter: @paulmcleary or @arawnsley.

Arms bazaar. Want to know whats in the reportedly $110 billion arms package the U.S. just offered to the Saudis? Defense News got it hands on a list of the specific items involved, which includes seven THAAD batteries, Patriot anti-missile systems, surveillance planes and fighter jets, as well as tens of thousands of munitions and other assorted arms. While the Trump administration has touted the $110 billion figure, theres still plenty of hurdles before that figure becomes a reality. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia still need to sign letters of agreement for a number of systems and both the Defense Security Cooperation Agency and Congress need to sign off on the sales. Congressional approval could be especially tricky given an emerging opposition to Saudi arms sales in the Senate.

Hack the Casbah. FPs Emily Tamkin reports that Qatars state-supported Al Jazeera news outlet is now under attack online. Al Jazeera officials say the entire Doha-based network is suffering from constant hacking attempts. The statement comes amidst a squabble between Qatar and its Sunni Gulf neighbors over Dohas alleged support of militant groups, the Muslim Brotherhood, and Iran. The rift has been widened by another incident of cyber intrigue involving what Qatar and the FBI say was the hack into the state-run Qatar News Agency. Officials say an op-ed purportedly written by Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani expressing fondness for Iran and Israel was a fake planted by hackers.

For hire. The New York Times also gets a scoop that the culprits responsible for posting that allegedly fake article were Russian mercenary hackers, according to the FBI. Nor are the Qataris the only Gulf country on the receiving end of hackers for hire. One group of cybersecurity researchers is set to publish a report claiming that the hackers responsible for stealing and publishing emails from the Emirati ambassador to the U.S. were part of a mercenary group dubbed Bahamut.

Busted. The Department of Justice announced the arrest of two alleged Hezbollah operatives inside the U.S., charging the men with training with the U.S.-designated terrorist group and scouting out potential American and Israeli targets inside the U.S. and Panama. Prosecutors say Samer El Debek and Ali Kourani, both naturalized U.S. citizens, received military training from Hezbollah in Lebanon, including a course in manufacturing improvised explosive devices for El Debek. Kourani is accused of scouting targets for Hezbollah in New York and searching for weapons suppliers for the group. El Debek allegedly surveilled the U.S. and Israeli embassies in Panama for Hezbollah and helped the group clean out a bomb factory in Thailand after operatives there fell under surveillance.

Shots fired. Russian President Vladimir Putin took aim at Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), his greatest nemesis in the U.S. Congress, on Thursday. In an interview with director and fan Oliver Stone, Putin admitted a grudging fondness for McCain to a certain extent on account of his patriotism. But Putin called out the Arizona senator for liv[ing] in the Old World, saying that his hardline stance on Russia fails to take into account the importance of cooperation between the U.S. and Russia on issues ranging from terrorism, global poverty, and nuclear weapons.

Photo Credit: U.S. Air Force

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SitRep: US and Iran Trade Shots in Syria; Qatar Blockade Continues; ISIS Slaughtering Civilians in Mosul - Foreign Policy (blog)

At a time when Iran is engulfed in a conglomerate of domestic and international crises, the regime witnessed two unexpected attacks by ISIS against its godfather in Tehran, marking the first such attack by the terror group on Iranian soil.

Parallel to denunciations from across the globe, the Iranian opposition National Council of Resistance of Iran condemned the attack and warned of Tehran taking advantage of such a development.

NCRI President Maryam Rajavi strongly condemned the loss of innocent lives under any pretext.

ISISs conduct clearly benefits the Iranian regimes Supreme Leader Khamenei, who wholeheartedly welcomes it as an opportunity to overcome his regimes regional and international impasse and isolation. The founder and the number one state sponsor of terror is thus trying to switch the place of the murderer and the victim and portray the central banker of terrorism as a victim, Rajavi said.

Reports and evidence to this day show the presence and crimes committed by ISIS in Iraq and Syria were to the sole benefit of Iran, allowing this regime to justify its role in this region. Iran, in contrast to other countries of the Middle East, has been the only country where ISIS and al-Qaeda had not conducted a terror attack. This could not have been a mere coincidence.

Strangely, all signs indicate Iran actually welcomed this incident. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei outrageously described this attack, that according to state media left 17 killed and dozens of others injured, merely as playing with firecrackers. Maybe he witnessed a potential in this turn of events to cloak the dilemmas and crises his entire apparatus is facing.

The spread of domestic rallies against the mullahs in Iran, the recent presidential election quagmire, escalating protests and gatherings staged outside the parliament by investors who have lost their savings in two now-bankrupt financial firms linked to the Revolutionary Guards, and strong positions taken by the United States and more than 50 Arabic and Muslim countries in the recent Riyadh Summit are a small slate of the regimes current calamities.

To this end, this terrorist attack couldnt have come at a better timing for the regime and provided a number of desperately needed lifelines. The Iranian regime will now seek to justify repressive measures against domestic protests, seek to normalize conditions to portray a status quo similar to those prior to the May presidential election, and escalate its meddling in other countries under the pretext of the war against ISIS.

Despite the fact that ISIS has claimed responsibility for this attack, people inside Iran have taken to Telegram and other social media platforms to express their surprise and suspicions, questioning how assailants were able to penetrate into the parliament, especially considering the already tight security atmosphere in Iran. They are also doubting claims made by various MPs who claimed the parliaments sessions continued despite attackers entering the building. Conflicting reports were issued by official sources regarding the number of attackers and other factors, further adding to the publics doubts over the entire issue.

It is worth noting that Iran has a history of resorting to similar measures when pinned against insurmountable crises. For example, on June 20th, 1994, at a time when thousands of people had filled the Imam Reza Shrine, considered Irans holiest site in the country located in the northeastern city of Mashhad, a powerful bombing left dozens of pilgrims killed and hundreds wounded.

The Iranian regime raised allegations against its main opposition, the Peoples Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK). Khamenei sent a message demanding the PMOI be punished, including expulsion from European countries and Iraq. Five years later, as the light was shed on the chain murders in Iran, evidence surfaced showing the role of Irans Ministry of Intelligence in the Mashhad bombing. In 1999 Irans Armed Forces Judiciary Organization issued a statement accusing Saeid Emami, then Iranian deputy minister of intelligence under Ali Fallahian, acknowledging further the MOIS role in this attack.

There are also voices heard arguing that the Iranian regime and ISIS enjoyed an unwritten agreement, similar to the relationship between Syrias Bashar Assad regime and ISIS. It is to no surprise at all, considering the fact that both parties believe their ending is near. The mullahs are losing the war against the Iranian people, and ISIS is more vulnerable than ever in the face of a global coalition. Their golden era has come to an end.

To uproot terrorism in the Middle East, Rajavi emphasized the following measures:

Continue reading here:
ISIS Attacks On Iran Should Make The Regime Reflect - The Daily Caller

Iran Rounds Up ISIS Suspects Following Deadly Attack in Tehran Wall Street Journal (subscription) Dozens of suspected members of Islamic State were arrested in Iran on Friday as authorities sought to root out the extremist group following this week's deadly attacks in the heart of the Iranian capital. The Intelligence Ministry said 41 suspects were ...

Originally posted here:
Iran Rounds Up ISIS Suspects Following Deadly Attack in Tehran - Wall Street Journal (subscription)

By Marc Martinez By Marc Martinez June 8 at 12:43 PM

Marc Martinez is a senior analyst at the Delma Institute, an international affairs research consultancy in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

For the first time since Irans 1979 Islamic revolution, a Sunni extremist group managed to successfully carry out a terrorist attack in Tehran. Iranians sat mesmerized in front of their TV sets, watching the unfolding events in disbelief and waiting for any information on the terrorists, their motivation and their affiliation.

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attacks against two potent symbols of power in Iran, which left at least 12 dead and 42 wounded. By attacking the Imam Khomeini mausoleum, the final resting place of the founder of the Islamic republic, the terrorists targeted the Islamic revolution itself. And by attacking the parliament, they assaulted Irans vibrant yet imperfect democracy. These were attacks on Irans political institutions, not Shiism.

By targeting both the symbols of Iranian democracy and the autocratic system of the velayat-e faqih (governance of the jurist), the terrorists, paradoxically, ended up uniting an Iranian society fractured by the recent presidential campaign that saw Hassan Rouhani get reelected. Reformists, moderates, conservatives and hard-liners are now part of a new sacred union against terrorism that will most likely enable the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to reinforce its involvement in Syria and increase support for its local militias.

The attack will harden nationalist feelings and legitimize the IRGCs rhetoric that such an intervention was necessary to fight terrorists in their locations to avoid having to fight them on the streets of Tehran. In a rare message of national unity, Rouhanis chief of staff for political affairs, Hamid Aboutalebi, encouraged Iranians to applaud the security forces, the IRGC, the Basij militia and police for their power and firmness.

This alliance will, however, only be temporary, as the people will soon increase pressure on their government to focus its attention on Iran and its economic woes rather than distant Syria. Conservatives will also use the tragic event to force political change in the next presidential election in four years.

The next few days are crucial to understanding whether Iranian moderates will be able to rein in the IRGC and its Shiite allies, such as the armed Lebanese group Hezbollah, the Afghan militia Fatemiyoun and the Pakistani Zeynabiyoun brigade which are all doing Irans bidding in the war in Syria. Because the Islamic State did not touch any religious symbols, even though the mausoleum site is sacred for Iranians and many Shiites, the government might be able to control the reaction of the more ideological Iranian forces.

But Iranians are not immune to conspiracy theories and are already questioning the timing of the attack, linking it to Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeirs threat a few hours before the attack, whenhe saidthat Iran must be punished for its interference in the region and its support for terrorist organizations.

Soon after the attack, social media in Iran was abuzz with messages on different platforms such as Telegram and Twitter with every detail of the terrorist operation. The military gear one of the attackers was found with eight grenades and 12 AK-47 magazines and the flawless, classical Arabic spoken by one of the attackers have been used to point the finger at Saudi Arabia and raise suspicions about its involvement. Even official confirmation that the attackers were all Sunni Iranians converted by the Islamic State to extremism was met with suspicion.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said: These fireworks have no effect on Iran. They will soon be eliminated They are too small to affect the will of the Iranian nation and its officials. However, the IRGC belligerently and publicly said Saudi Arabia was behind the attack and added that the spilled blood of the innocent will not remain unavenged. At a time when regional tensions are at a historic high with the ongoing Qatar crisis, the prospect of an Iranian retaliation through the IRGC or one of its Shiite allies is petrifying, as the consequences for Iran and the region would be unfathomable.

The terrorist attacks will have serious consequences on foreign direct investments, as international companies and governments were waiting for the first signs of economic improvement to enter the Iranian market. And a retaliation in any form would be catastrophic, as it would most likely trigger new U.S. and, possibly, European sanctions against Iran, and once again brand the country as a state sponsor of terrorism.

If the Iranian authorities not only the government but also the supreme leader are able and willing to control their most extremist forces, they will be able to maintain the moral high ground by taking advantage of the Shiite tradition of victimization.

The Islamic State attacks show that Iran is a de facto part of the international community, as its democratic institutions and existence are a threat to the terrorist group. This will force countries and individuals to review their analyses. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, for example, will no longer be able to question Irans relations with the Islamic State (What is the one country in the Middle East that has not been attacked by ISIS? One, that is Iran. That is more than happenstance, Im sure.) or state that I consider ISIS nothing more than an excuse for Iran to continue its mischief. Iran is not an enemy of ISIS.

But by stating that states that sponsor terrorism risk falling victim to the evil they promote, President Trump proved to many Iranians that their suffering is not considered equal to that of others.

Continued here:
The terror of the Islamic State comes to Iran - Washington Post