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Deterring the United States from "bullying and interventions" in Muslim countries is rewarding Jihad, Irans Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei tells the Muslim world in his Hajj message published Monday.

After months of negotiations with Washington and three European powers to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, Khamenei does not pull punches in a message he delivers annually on the occasion of Hajj, a sacred duty for all Muslims.

This years message is not so different in its content from previous years when the aging anti-Western cleric routinely lambasted the US for opposing his military and regional policies. But this year the message comes amid more than three months of serious talks in Vienna, when many in the West spoke of confidence building with the Islamic Republic to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA.

But most of all, this years message perhaps shows Khameneis frustration that the West insists on discussing Irans interference in regional countries. The United States has said time and again that restoring JCPOA is prelude to more talks to resolve regional issues. Khameneis message is full of references to young people rising against US domination and the West blaming Iran for the resistance.

Last year, Khamenei also unleashed a harsh attack on the United States, but that could be seen as a response to former President Donald Trump who imposed maximum pressure on Iran and in essence demanded capitulation on many fronts.

This year, President Joe Biden has adopted a different approach, calling for talks and compromise to resurrect the Obama-era agreement, which means at least most of the heavy sanctions imposed by his predecessor would be lifted, offering Iran a financial lifeline.

Khamenei called for strengthening the resistance forces against the United States a jargon for Islamic Republics allies and militant proxies in the region, such as the Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq, Houthis in Yemen and Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Khamenei in his message also repeated his anti-Western rhetoric, that backwardness of Muslim countries is the fault of the West because of their evil machinations, domination and arrogance against the Muslim world. Although this message has some receptive ears among Muslims, many Sunnis see Khamenei as a Shiite cleric whose rhetoric is crafted from the standpoint of his interests.

Others see that Khameneis view of history, at least in case of Iran is flawed. When Europe began to rise and mustered technology and military power, Iran was suffering from the domination of religious dogma and superstitions, with no secular education, corrupt and weak monarchies where science and good governance were lacking. In fact, it was Ottoman Sultans and Persian kings who realized that they had to emulate the West to maintain independence and compete.

Khamenei argued in his message that Muslim nations had no role and no say in the affairs of their countries in the past 150 years. But he blamed this on the West instead of questioning the authoritarian impulses of local rulers, such as himself. The Islamic Republics violations of human rights and campaign against dissidents is well documented.

Khamenei called for resistance against the United States and condemned inaction and incompetence among Muslim governments, while Iran is now in the grips of multiple crises. One clear example is its inability to vaccinate its population against Covid-19, while other Muslim countries with oil wealth are well ahead in the game with 30-75 percent of the population vaccinated.

Khamenei is known for his anti-Western impulses. In his political worldview Russia or China can do no wrong because they are also anti-Western. He never mentions Russian domination of millions of Muslims and their forced secularization, or in fact Communist indoctrination.

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Amid Negotiations, Iran's Khamenei Unleashes Attack On The US - Iran International

ISTANBUL (AP) Security forces in eastern Turkey have conducted a major operation against people traffickers bringing migrants across the Iranian border, the provincial governors office said Monday.

More than 1,450 migrants were found in abandoned buildings around Mount Erek, which towers over the city of Van, since July 10, Van governors office said.

Eleven organizers were detained, six of whom have been held in prison by a court order. The statement added that 11 barrack-style buildings for holding migrants had been demolished.

The operation comes amid concerns over a possible spike in migrants from Afghanistan before the U.S. pullout and intense fighting between the Taliban and Afghan government forces.

Describing earlier operations by police and border agents, backed by aerial drones, the governors office said 27,230 migrants had been caught crossing the Iranian border so far this year.

Turkeys border with Iran has long been a popular smuggling route for people, mainly Afghans, Iranians and Pakistanis, seeking to enter Turkey before heading west to cities such as Istanbul and Ankara.

The migrants typically hope to raise money in Turkey by working in the black market before heading on to Europe.

Turkey, which hosts around 4 million refugees, is currently building new security measures on its eastern border. Afghans are believed to be the second-largest refugee community after Syrians.

___

Follow APs global migration coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/migration

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Turkish operation on Iran border halts over 1,450 migrants - Associated Press

Outgoing Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif wrote in a report to parliament that the Biden administration has agreed to lift almost all U.S. sanctions on Iran to secure a mutual return to the 2015 nuclear deal.

Why it matters: The report includes details that hadn't been made public before now and is the most official and comprehensive Iranian account of the status of the indirect talks with the U.S.

According to Zarif's report, Biden is prepared to remove not only the sanctions reimposed by former President Donald Trump when he withdrew from the deal, but also most of the sanctions Trump later imposed under his "maximum pressure" strategy.

Zarif's report also covered the steps Iran would have to take to reach a deal, including implementing the additional protocol that allows stricter UN nuclear inspections, redesigning the Arak Heavy Water Reactor, limiting enrichment to 3.67% and turning over more than 300 kg of uranium enriched beyond that level.

What he's saying: Iran has proved it can revive its nuclear program very quickly if it needs to, sometimes even in less than a day," Zarif writes.

Between the lines: Zarif is a longtime advocate of diplomacy on the nuclear issue, and his report stresses what Iran stands to gain from a deal while downplaying any Iranian concessions.

Whats next: Zarif writes that a framework of possible agreement had been reached and he hopes what has been achieved so far will be completed in the beginning of the incoming Iranian government."

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U.S. prepared to lift nearly all Iran sanctions, Zarif tells parliament - Axios

In the long war between Iran and its rivals in the Middle East, most of it occurring beneath the surface, Tehran is increasingly using remotely piloted drones to mount attacks. In May and June the Iranians were behind at least five such attacks against American bases in Syria and Iraq.

Earlier, on May 18, while Israel was deep in the air war with Gaza, an Iranian drone was launched from Iraq, passed over Jordan and entered Israeli airspace before being downed over the Beit Shean Valley in the north.

Israel released few details on the downing of the aircraft, though both then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Aviv Kochavi, mentioned the stymieing of the drone in speeches at the end of the fighting with Gaza. Netanyahu views the incident as proof that Iran is the true patron of terrorism in the Middle East.

Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, Jr., the head of U.S. Central Command, warned in April that the region is becoming a proving ground for drones, most of them Iranian-made. Iran isnt the only player in the region that covets these weapons. For Hamas, which employed them liberally before and during the fighting in May, drones let the group, to some degree, respond to Israels vast air superiority a cheap substitute for an air force.

The moment that transformed the regions perception of drones occurred in September 2019, when Iran attacked Saudi oil facilities. The attack caused huge damage to a site of Saudi Aramco, the worlds biggest oil company, and disrupted oil exports from the kingdom for several months.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards big success a coordinated strike of drones and cruise missiles on targets about 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) away stunned military experts in Israel and the West. To the Iranians, it didnt matter that many of their drones apparently didnt reach their target. The impact on the consciousness was more important.

The IDF believes that the choice to massively develop drones makes sense for Iran. It jibes with the old Iranian ethos linking scientific and technological progress, independent manufacturing and self-reliance within what Spiritual Leader Ali Khamenei likes to call the resistance economy.

The Iranians specialize in making replicas, good or less so, of advanced weapons systems produced in other countries, based on reverse engineering of these weapons. Some of the final products dont meet Western standards, but Iran believes the results are sufficient.

Operational and strategic constraints also play a part. For many years Iran invested in developing rockets and missiles of various ranges. The trouble is that a ballistic missile is heavy, awkward and inflexible. True, its an important deterrent, but its noisy, as it were, and doesnt allow for deniability as drones do. When Iran launched missiles at American bases in Iraq, after the assassination of the Guards Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani, the Americans reacted fiercely.

But with a drone, a military source in Israel says, its easier to dream. The Iranians use of drones is influenced by what the Americans and especially the Israelis did with them earlier, in the so-called war between the wars.

From the operational angle, a chisel is sometimes preferable to a hammer. Drones are relatively easy to operate, require small launch crews and are easy to move between sectors and organizations. Its easy to train soldiers to operate them, and the drones can be launched in various ways and from a variety of platforms.

From the strategic angle, the adversary can be harassed without prompting a harsh response that will lead to war. Organizations that dont actually exist claimed responsibility for some of the drone attacks in Iraq, though it can be surmised that Shiite militias run by Iran were behind these efforts. Drones are also an alternative to Iranian fighter planes, which simply dont exist except for ancient American Phantoms dating to the shahs time.

According to a survey published this year on the website Iran Primer, in 2004 the Iranians started transferring drones and spare parts to their partners in at least four parts of the Middle East: Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and the Gaza Strip. Drones were also smuggled to Venezuela, whose government is friendly with Iran.

The Iranian drones are divided between intelligence-collecting missions and attack/suicide missions. They have different ranges, from hovercraft with a range of 15 kilometers to drones that can fly 1,700 kilometers.

The attacks have targeted the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and extremist Sunni organizations in Syria and Iraq. In an article for the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, the analyst Fabian Hinz describes the drone deliveries to the militias as part of Irans asymmetric strategy designed to offset the countrys military weaknesses. Hinz discerns an Iranian approach that combines arms smuggling, manufacturing in the target countries and the installation of precision kits to improve rockets.

In tweets at the beginning of July, Hinz discussed Khameneis visit to a Revolutionary Guards weapons exhibition in 2014 where new drones and missiles were on display. It turns out that some of these weapons were used in the attack on Saudi Arabia five years later. Hinz concludes that some of the systems are actually made by the Revolutionary Guards and not by Irans military industries.

The impression gleaned by the IDF is that the Iranians have completed the whole production chain in developing drones. Theyre developing all the basic components themselves the body of the aircraft, the engine, the navigation systems, the ability to ensure a low radar signature and to maneuver between the flight range and the weight of the load, a military source says.

The Iranians have sewed themselves a comfortable suit, with an effective means that can be used both in the war between the wars and in wartime. Theres no tiebreaker here: Drones are intended for harassment, collection and deterrence, not for victory. But their progress has been significant. Its no wonder the Americans, like us, are worried about it.

The next big thing

The urgent need for an enhanced response to drones and hovercraft has been raised in all the recent security meetings between Israel and the United Sates, including the Washington visits by Gantz and Kochavi. At the same time, intelligence and radar cooperation has been upgraded between Israel and Centcom, whose units are scattered throughout the region. It cant be ruled out that this was linked to the interception of the Iranian drone over northern Israel in May.

In addition, adjustments have been made to the Iron Dome system, which originally wasnt intended to battle drones, which fly at modest speeds. During the fighting in May, tweaks let Iron Dome intercept drones for the first time.

The challenge that the drones of Iran and its satellites pose to us is constantly increasing, a senior General Staff officer told Haaretz. Were working to improve our capability, but we arent yet sure that the response is complete.

Another officer added: The problem isnt only the meager radar signature that the drones leave, its that so many organizations operated by Iran already possess them. Along with improving our defense, we need to develop the possibility to identify Iranian responsibility for attacks.

At the moment, theyre under the mistaken impression that they have ... room for deniability that will blur their responsibility and prevent a response against them. That might have worked on the Saudis; it must not be allowed to work on us.

Drones great power was illustrated in the past year in two offensives that Israel took part in, one of them directly. The first was the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia during the fall, the second was the fighting with Gaza.

In the six weeks of the war in the Caucasus, the Azerbaijanis had the upper hand, largely thanks to their massive use of Israeli- and Turkish-made drones. The Armenians had to ask for a cease-fire.

Military experts in the West believe that the drone attacks provided the Azerbaijanis with an immense advantage; they systematically hit Armenian infantry, armor and artillery. That success will likely step up the production of drones around the world, along with small hovercraft that fly lower.

As they did with the Iranians, the drones gave the Azerbaijanis a simple and cheap way to use precision munitions. Azerbaijan also published footage of its hits on Armenian troops.

The Washington Post wrote that the Nagorno-Karabakh war provided the most vivid illustration of drones ability to change a campaign hitherto dictated by planes and ground forces. The war also showed that even advanced weapons, from radar to tanks, are exposed to destruction from the air in the absence of a specific defense.

The Armenians aging Soviet antiaircraft systems couldnt cope, and the drone attacks opened a path for ground advances. According to various estimates, about a third of the Armenian tanks were destroyed in these attacks.

Israel took the use of drones and hovercraft one step further in the fighting in May. For the first time, swarms of drones attacked Hamas after rocket launchers were spotted. This method is based on a rapid analysis of information received via artificial intelligence to identify launch sites.

The swarms were set in motion with the drones communicating and coordinating among one another. Part of Israels progress will be presented to foreign air forces in a first international exercise of its kind that the air force will soon host.

Originally posted here:
Irans drone revolution takes off - Haaretz

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivers a televised speech in Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2021. (Official Khamenei Website/Handout via Reuters)

On the menu today: Not only is Iran plotting to kidnap American citizens, but on a wide variety of fronts, the regime in Tehran is biting the Biden administrations outstretched hand; the U.S. may have taken a worthwhile action against Russian hackers; and Andrew Cuomo is still lying about how many New Yorkers died from COVID-19 not by a handful of cases or a rounding error, but by more than 10,000 deaths.

The More Things Change, the More Iran Stays the Same

At some point, the Biden administration will have to stop letting the Iranians urinate on its shoes while its inviting them to further negotiations about their nuclear program. Tehran is not interested in making concessions, and it is not interested in changing its behavior. The mullahs think the Biden administration is a bunch of nave suckers, and they dont really hide their contempt.

For starters, the U.S. must not make concessions to regimes that plot to kidnap American citizens who dare criticize that regime:

In an indictment unsealed in federal court in Manhattan, four Iranians were charged with conspiring to kidnap the journalist and author, Masih Alinejad.

. . . The four defendants all live in Iran and remain at large, the prosecutors said, identifying one of them, Alireza Shavaroghi Farahani, 50, as an Iranian intelligence official and the three others as Iranian intelligence assets. A fifth defendant, accused of supporting the plot but not participating in the kidnapping conspiracy, was arrested in California.

The indictment describes a plot that included attempts to lure Ms. Alinejad, an American citizen, to a third country to capture her and forcibly render her to Iran. The intelligence official, Mr. Farahani, and his network used private investigators to surveil, photograph and video record Ms. Alinejad and members of her household in Brooklyn, the government said.

The extensive surveillance that Mr. Farahanis network procured included the use of a live, high-definition video feed depicting Ms. Alinejads home, prosecutors said.

This is not some far-fetched movie plot, William F. Sweeney Jr., the head of the F.B.I.s New York office, said in a statement.

. . . Another of the agents, Kiya Sadeghi, researched a service offering what the government described as military-style speedboats for a self-operated maritime evacuation out of Manhattan; and maritime travel from New York to Venezuela, whose leadership has friendly relations with the Iranian government.

Meanwhile, beyond New York City:

When the Iranians take actions such as those, the Biden administration looks foolish for removing Iranian oil-company officials from financial blacklists, lifting sanctions on Iranian energy companies, and contemplating lifting sanctions on Irans ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Why are we making life easier for a regime that keeps trying to kill or otherwise harm our citizens and our allies?

The International Monetary Fund just released new figures indicating that the Trump administrations maximum pressure campaign had dramatically reduced Irans Gross Official Reserves that is, its holdings of gold and foreign currencies by official monetary institutions from $122 billion in 2018 to $4 billion in 2020. Between sanctions and the problems of COVID-19, the Iranian regime was quickly going broke*. Elliot Abrams observes that, Whenever we hear that the maximum pressure campaign failed, we ought to recall that IMF statistic: Irans reserves almost disappeared between 2018 and 2020. By unilaterally relieving some sanctions in hopes of some future concessions, the Biden administration is grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory.

Yes, the Biden policy hasnt been total appeasement so far. Late last month, U.S. military forces launched airstrikes against operational and weapons-storage facilities at two locations in Syria and one location in Iraq, where Iranian-backed militias were launching drone attacks against U.S. forces. And I dont know if a recent cyberattack against Irans rail network was the work of the U.S. government; it doesnt really fit our methods or goals. Its a civilian target, and the U.S. doesnt really gain much by lousing up the commutes of ordinary Iranian citizens:

Irans railroad system came under cyberattack on Friday, a semi-official news agency reported, with hackers posting fake messages about train delays or cancellations on display boards at stations across the country.

The hackers posted messages such as long delayed because of cyberattack or canceled on the boards. They also urged passengers to call for information, listing the phone number of the office of the countrys supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Okay, that last detail is funny.

Foreign policy can be complicated, but in the end, it boils down to incentives, deterrents, and consequences. Right now, the Iranians dont even fear the consequences of launching a plot to kidnap an American citizen off the streets of New York for being an outspoken critic of the regime.

And speaking of tough rhetoric not matching up with the administrations actions . . .

Earlier this week, former assistant attorney general Jack Goldsmith reached the point of exasperation with the Biden administrations warnings to Vladimir Putin about Russian hackers:

On July 9, President Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that the United States will take any necessary action, including imposing unspecified consequences, if Russia does not disrupt ransomware attacks from its soil. The problem with this warning is that the United States has been publicly pledging to impose consequences on Russia for its cyber actions for at least five years usually, as here, following a hand-wringing government deliberation in the face of a devastating cyber incident. This talk has persisted even as adverse cyber operations have grown more frequent and damaging. It is ineffective and, in the aggregate, self-defeating . . .

Amazingly, the United States is in exactly the place it was five years ago when the Russians interfered in the 2016 election. It still has not figured out how to impose costs on the Russians that outweigh the Russians perceived benefits from these cyber operations. Whatever combination of public and secret sanctions it has been imposing clearly is not doing the trick.

The good news is that maybe U.S. cyberdefense is finally adding up to, as Elvis would put it, a little less conversation and a little more action:

A Russian-based hacker group blamed for a massive ransomware attack earlier this month has gone offline, sparking speculation about whether the move was the result of a government-led action.

The webpages of the group known as REvil disappeared from the dark web on July 13, cybersecurity researchers said. Both its data-leak site and ransom-negotiating portals were unreachable.

The researchers said that it was unclear whether the outage was the result of actions taken by law enforcement or whether REvil had voluntarily taken down its sites.

The situation is still unfolding, but evidence suggests REvil has suffered a planned, concurrent takedown of their infrastructure, either by the operators themselves or via industry or law enforcement action, John Hultquist of Mandiant Threat Intelligence said in a statement quoted by AFP.

The White House and U.S. Cyber Command declined to comment, according to the Associated Press.

Lets hope REvil becomes permanently REmoved from the Internet.

Yes, Andrew Cuomo Is Still Lying about New Yorks COVID-19 Death Toll

Remember how lots and lots of progressive activists, and their allies in the media, were absolutely convinced that the state of Floridas death records had been altered and falsified to hide a terrible death toll because of the decisions of Ron DeSantis? And to this day, they still insist thats the case, even though every medical official in the state says its a bunch of nonsense?

It turns out that the story is somewhat close to true, except its not DeSantis in Florida, its Andrew Cuomo in New York State:

The federal governments count of the COVID-19 death toll in New York has 11,000 more victims than the tally publicized by the administration of Gov. Andrew Cuomo, which has stuck with a far more conservative approach to counting virus deaths.

The discrepancy in death counts continued to widen this year, according to an Associated Press review, even as the Democrat has come under fire over allegations that his office purposely obscured the number of deaths of nursing home residentsto protect his reputation.

New York states official death count, presented daily to the public and on the states Department of Health website, stood at around 43,000 this week. But the state has provided the federal government with data that shows roughly 54,000 people have died with COVID-19 as a cause or contributing factor listed on their death certificate.

Its a little strange, said Bob Anderson, chief of the Mortality Statistics Branch at the Centers for Disease Control and Preventions National Center for Health Statistics. Theyre providing us with the death certificate information so they have it. I dont know why they wouldnt use those numbers.

Yes, strange is one word for it. Shameless, appalling, and disqualifying from high office would be others. It would be nice to live in a world where the true allegation about Cuomo generated as much anger and denunciation as the false allegation about DeSantis.

*Irans dire state isnt that far away from the grim portrait envisioned in the first chapters of Hunting Four Horsemen.

ADDENDA: Dan McLaughlin is right; if Time wants to run an op-ed column entitled The Conservative Case Against Banning Critical Race Theory, they should not select a former clerk for Ruth Bader Ginsburg who recently wrote a report entitled, On the Origins of Republican Violence.

Phil Klein is right; if Democrats are determined to pass a $3.5 trillion wish-list spending bill through reconciliation, theres no good reason for Republicans to sign on to the other, smaller infrastructure bill.

Ramesh Ponnuru is right; President Joe Biden says the U.S. is facing a crisis of democracy, but hes not acting as though he believes it.

And finally, Vox was spectacularly, laughably wrong, a few years back, when it sneeringly disputed one of my tweets and claimed that, China is tackling climate change with all guns blazing. The US, not China, is the laggard in this relationship.

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Irans Giant Middle Finger to the Biden Administration - National Review