Mediaboss Marketing

Iran will reportedly resume financial assistance to the Palestinian militant group Hamas following a freeze in relations, caused by Hamas refusal to support the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Tehran, and the groups unwillingness to take Irans side in its rivalry with regional enemy, Saudi Arabia.

Iran appears to have backed down on these demands and ties have warmed in recent weeks after the election of Ismail Haniyeh as Hamass new political leader on May 6 over former deputy head Moussa Abu Marzouk, who Tehran reportedly did not want to work with.

For the past two weeks, senior Hamas figures have been meeting officials from Irans military arm, the Revolutionary Guards, and Shiite militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon, Palestinian sources told London-based Arabic daily Asharq al-Awsat on Tuesday.

Subscribe to Newsweek from $1 per week

Hamas, Hezbollah and the Iranian regime all view Israel as its primary enemy. Hezbollah waged a war with Israel in 2006, Hamas has fought three conflicts with Israel in the Gaza Strip since 2008, and Irans conservative religious rulers routinely calls for Israels destruction.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh reviews an honor guard during an official welcoming ceremony in Tehran February 10, 2012. Iran is set to renew funding for the Palestinian militant group, according to officials. Reuters/Morteza Nikoubazl

The Syrian conflict, which began in 2011, caused an apparent split between the two as Hamas refused to pledge its support to the Assad regime, which is largely made up of members of the Alawite minority Shia sect of Islam. Hamas backed the Saudi-backed Sunni rebels fighting Assad instead. Both Iran and Hezbollah adhere to the Shia strand of Islam, while Hamas is a Sunni Islamist faction.

Read more: Another war between Israel and Hezbollah is inevitable

Israel maintains that Iran has continued to fund Hamas to allow it to rebuilt its tunnel network and rocket armory, both of which it has used against Israel in three conflicts since 2008.

As part of the deal to renew ties, Haniyeh will soon travel to Tehran to meet with regime officials in an attempt rebuild damaged relations, the report says.

The rapprochement comes after U.S. President Donald Trump delivered a speech to Sunni leaders in the Saudi capital Riyadh earlier this month, in which he called Iran the most prominent exporter of terrorism in the Middle East. Iran funds Hezbollah as well as Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen fighting pro-government forces backed by a Saudi-led coalition.

"For decades, Iran has fueled the fires of sectarian conflict and terror," Trump said. "It is a government that speaks openly of mass murder, vowing the destruction of Israel, death to America, and ruin for many leaders and nations in this very room."

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif responded to Trump, tweeting that he had attacked the Islamic Republic in "that bastion of democracy & moderation" of Saudi Arabia. He said Trump had milked the Saudi government for billions of dollars in deals, overlooking human rights abuses and a lack of democracy. Iran held elections this month which moderate President Hassan Rouhani won, securing a second term.

Follow this link:
Iran To 'Renew Funding' For Hamas, Despite Trump's Riyadh Speech - Newsweek

During his trip to the Middle East last week, President Donald Trump had one consistent theme and he never wavered from it: The region needs to unite to stop Iran. Mutual antipathy for Tehran has driven Arab regimes such as Saudi Arabia to make common cause with Israel. It was also the motivation for the massive $110 billion arms deal Trump struck with the Saudis, who believe that President Obamas nuclear agreement with Iran has endangered their security.

But while Trump talks tough about the Iranians, the normally bellicose Islamist regime has been restrained, at least by its standards, in response. Why? The Iranians may be unhappy with Trumps effort to orchestrate the creation of a Middle East NATO that would oppose their dream of regional hegemony, but they are actually quite pleased with other elements of his administrations Iran policy. For all of Trumps bluster, his decision not only to leave the nuclear agreement in place but to erect no obstacles to a major U.S. commercial deal with Iran may have convinced the ayatollahs that the president isnt quite as hostile as he wants to seem.

One of the least noticed aspects of the nuclear deal was a provision that granted Tehran an exception to U.S. sanctions that remained in place after it was signed. That provision allowed U.S. companies to sell commercial passenger aircraft and related parts and services to Iran, and Boeing took advantage of it, joining European businesses in a race to secure Iranian business.

It was a clever strategy that enabled Obama to undermine the remaining resistance to the deal. If, as Obama hoped, a major U.S. firm such as Boeing were to conclude a massive deal of its own with Iran, the jobs created by the sale would build a strong new constituency opposed to retightening the screws on Tehran no matter the regimes subsequent actions.

Boeings deal with Iran was concluded in June 2016, and the Obama administration subsequently issued the requisite licenses for it to move forward. But the Trump administration still has a chance to raise objections and to block the delivery of the planes to Tehran.

The grounds for objection were already clear last year, when Boeing was celebrating the deal: Many of the companies with which it would be doing business have strong connections to or are owned by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which coordinates Irans international terrorist network. Yet so far, the Trump administration has remained suspiciously silent about the deal, leading Iran to the not unreasonable conclusion that while the president may be willing to talk about its role as the worlds leading state sponsor of terror, he is as reluctant to do something about it as his predecessor was.

Trump has no good options when it comes to tearing up the nuclear deal that he spent so much of the 2016 campaign denouncing as a betrayal of U.S. interests. Walking away from the pact at a moment when neither Americas European allies nor Russia and China are willing to re-impose sanctions would simply give the Iranians permission to move quickly toward a bomb without providing a means short of war to stop them. But Trump does have options that can start the process of rebuilding an international quarantine against Iranian terror and punishing the regime for its illegal missile tests.

Earlier this month, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed a sweeping set of measures designed to impose new restrictions on trade with Iran because of its human-rights violations and support for terror. The point of such efforts is to expand the list of Iranian individuals and companies affected by the sanctions that still remain in place, so as to hamper the ability of the IRGC and other agents of the regime to profit from foreign trade. Moreover, even if other nations wont re-impose their own sanctions on Iran, U.S. measures that bar foreign banks from the American financial system if they do business with terror-connected Iranian entities can still have a devastating impact on the regime.

President Trump mocked John Kerry as the worst negotiator in history for his disastrous role in making the nuclear pact possible. But if he doesnt move to support the Senate bill and to do something about the Boeing deal, then he will effectively be throwing in his lot with Obamas secretary of state, who remains a public opponent of increased sanctions on Iran.

The reason for Trumps reluctance to move against Boeing is obvious: Promises to create American jobs were as important to the success of his campaign as were his criticisms of Obama. Putting any further obstacles in the way of the transaction would have a devastating impact on the company and the thousands of workers it employs. Moreover, Boeing is looking to expand its ties with Iran and has applied for another license to sell 30 more planes to entities within the country. But Iran uses commercial planes such as the ones Boeing sells to ferry supplies, munitions, and volunteers to Syria, where they have helped preserve the rule of the barbarous Assad regime. No one in the White House can pretend that Boeings budding business relationship with the Islamic Republic is unrelated to the security concerns that Trump discussed with the Saudis and Israelis last week.

All of which is to say that theres a glaring contradiction between Trumps indulgence of Boeings desire to profit from its dealings with Iran and his efforts to rein in a dangerous foe of U.S. interests. If he stays silent and/or allows the planes to be delivered, it may preserve jobs for some of the working-class voters who backed him. But it will also validate Tehrans belief that he is as much a paper tiger as Obama was. And an Iran unfettered by fear of U.S. power, hard and soft, would be an even bigger threat to global security.

READ MORE: The Iran Deal, the Paris Agreement, & Trumps Choice to Move Away from Them The Obama Administrations Iran Deal Duplicity Donald Trumps Iran Flip-Flopping is Nothing of the Kind

Jonathan S. Tobin is the opinion editor of JNS.org and a contributor to National Review Online.

See more here:
Trump & Iran: Tough Talk, Little Action | National Review - National Review

Editor's Note: This piece originally appeared on Markaz.

Hassan Rouhani, Irans incumbent president and the sheikh of diplomacy who helped engineer the Iran nuclear deal, won a resounding mandate in a hard-fought reelection battle on Friday, sparking jubilation in the streets of Irans major cities.

Within Iran, the elections outcome matters most for the anticipated disasters that it averted: the appearance of popular approbation for his opponent, a serial human rights abuser with aspirations of even higher office; the blatant rigging of the ballot accompanied the specter of unrest and international recriminations. Even from a distance, the reaction was tinged with an unmistakable note of relief that the doomsday scenarios of rigging or regression had been forestalled.

Rouhanis victory (57 percent of the vote to Raisis 38 percent) does not alter the balance of power in the Islamic Republicin the short term, it may reinforce the regimes legitimacyand it will not translate quickly or easily into the jobs or the freedoms that Rouhani promised to pursue with greater vigilance in a second term. Nor is it likely to fend off Washingtons determination to ramp up pressure on Tehrana strategy that began unfolding with the simultaneous start to President Donald Trumps visit to Saudi Arabia.

However, dismissing the ballots of 41 million Iranians as irrelevant or fakeas the Trump administration and some of its supporters were quick to dorepresents a dangerous miscalculation in a region that can ill afford more American delusions. Irans election is not a quick fix to the problems facing Iranians or to those its government foments, but it is an essential step along the road to more responsible governance.

Multi-billion dollar arms sales and gilded conclaves of octogenarian autocrats will not beget the better future that Trumps Riyadh speech rightly challenged the region to build. No strategy to address the instability that plagues the Middle East can succeed without the expansion of political participation, the expectation of government accountability, the enhancement of civil rights, and some measure of genuine competition for power. Having endured revolution, war, and isolation, Iranians appreciate that a better future begins with the ballot box, and a vote that galvanizes spontaneous (and unimpeded) street parties should be one that Washington welcomes.

The Establishment Rears Up

Like his 2013 election, Rouhanis win on Friday culminated a tense, unsettled campaign that highlighted the ideological fissures within Irans political establishment as well as the perennial dissatisfaction of its electorate. What should have been an easy extension of his presidency morphed into a fight for his political life after conservatives marshalled their efforts around Ibrahim Raisi, a hardline cleric who has been touted as a prospective successor to Irans supreme leader.

The race became a referendum on the economy, an issue that has long served as a convenient proxy for the broader ideological divide within the Islamic Republic. It should have been a position of strength for Rouhani, who through a combination of cautious fiscal policy and successful nuclear diplomacy managed to decrease inflation four-fold and reverse several years of sanctions-induced contraction in the economy. However, Raisi made effective use of the deeply inculcated revolutionary commitment to social justice, hammering Rouhani on persistent unemployment and alleged corruption, and promising to triple cash subsidies to poor households.

The race became a referendum on the economy, an issue that has long served as a convenient proxy for the broader ideological divide within the Islamic Republic.

Raisis apparent momentum was always underpinned by the strenuous support of the conservative establishment, and its readiness to deploy any means necessary to facilitate his election was always the wild card in the race. After all, they had rigged a presidential ballot before, and who better to help than the presumptive successor to the supreme leader?

In the campaigns final days, as hardline press agencies touted polls that put the race as too close to call, Rouhani went on the offensive. He warned the security forces against interfering with the vote, scorned past use of violent and extremist groups, and alluded to Raisis role in some of the most vicious episodes of Irans post-revolutionary history, including the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988.

Reformist Revival?

He did more than simply disparage his rivals; in the last week of the campaign, Rouhani explicitly embraced the mantle of the reform movementa political agenda that he had opposed in its heyday and only sought to subtly coopt during his first term. He slammed the factional bias of the state broadcasters and the economic infringements of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and promised to defend human rights and seek the end of all sanctions, a nod toward more negotiations with Washington. He posed the election as a choice between a lawyer and a judge, adding that a lawyer defends people while a judge issues sentences.

Rouhani disparaged his opponents for their claims about freedom of speech and criticism, exclaiming:

How strange! Those who cut off tongues and sewed lips. Nothing has been heard from you but prohibition, ban on writing, and ban on media throughout the years. Please dont you speak of freedom, it will be embarrassed. Please dont you speak of criticism. You work for an organization that no one dares to criticize its performance.

All of this could have come from the playbook of his predecessor, reformist icon Mohammad Khatami, whose name he invoked on the campaign trail and in his victory speech despite prohibitions related to Khatamis support for the leaders of the 2009 post-election uprising.

Rouhanis eight million-vote advantage over Raisi is commanding, and it is bolstered by an even stronger showing in the elections of thousands of local officials that was wrapped into Fridays vote. The outcome carried a wave of reformists into city and local councils around the country, including in conservative bastions such as Mashhad, the hometown of both Raisi and the supreme leader. In Tehran, reformists literally took every seat on the city council, which will surely mean that Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqr Qalibaf, who ended his third run for president to throw his support behind Raisi, will now be out of a job. That his likely replacement is the son of the late Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Irans original pragmatic president, only adds to the sense that this was a wholesale revival of the prospects of reforming Iran.

Tricky Course Ahead

There is a natural temptation to view Rouhani as strengthened by the elections resounding outcome. Unfortunately, thats unlikely. In fact, the fiercely fought campaign exposed the deep polarization within Iranian society, and while Rouhani easily defeated Raisi, each of his electoral victories came with a lower proportion of the popular vote than any prior presidential ballot, hinting that Iranian elections are becoming more competitive. Some substantial proportion of the electorate harbors deep resentment toward not just the leadership but the four percent, as Qalibaf described that segment of Iranians who have prospered as a result of their proximity to power. They are susceptible to populist promises, and view the economic and diplomatic openings with trepidation rather than relief.

Raisis nearly 16 million votes suggest that the conservative base has not expanded much over the course of the past four years, but neither has it diminished. The guardians of orthodoxy within the Islamic Republic can count on a sizeable blocking minority, and, through a quick round of complaints over electoral procedures, Raisi has signaled he does not intend to shrink quietly back to the seminary. More importantly, they have levers beyond the ballot box at their disposal, including the leadership of the security forces, the judiciary, and a willingness to use any means necessary.

Raisi has signaled he does not intend to shrink quietly back to the seminary.

In this respect, Rouhani faces a familiar problem. In veering left, he surely helped secure strong turnout74 percentand probably swayed many of those who grew disappointed with what the nuclear deal has delivered. However, he also committed himself publicly to making progress on issues where he has only the most tenuous authority and where Khatami, aided by a reformist parliament, ultimately failed to generate meaningful change.

For this reason, his second term begins with an even stiffer challenge than his first. Dashed expectations among some proportion of the public after his first administration threatened his reelection; Rouhani will have to maneuver skillfully to avoid an even more dramatic disconnect between public demands and government achievements over the next four years. At his first post-election news conference, Iranian journalists burst into applause when a questioner advised him to continue behaving as he had during the final week of the campaign.

Rouhanis rhetoric also cut dangerously close to the bone for the legitimacy of Irans ruling system, which remains fixed around the absolute authority of the supreme leader. That will surely not be forgotten, particularly at a time when the prospect of succession looms large. Raisis loss will make his speculated elevation deeply problematic, at least if it were to happen before the end of Rouhanis presidency in 2021. Institutions matter more than individuals in the Islamic Republic, and the primacy of the leaders office has to be protected. At 77 years old, the timing is hardly within Khameneis control, but its worth noting that Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Irans original supreme leader, survived in office until the age of 86.

What About Trump?

Iranians were still celebrating Rouhanis victory when President Trump landed just across the Persian Gulf in his inaugural foreign visit. The confluence exacerbated the jarring sense of disconnect that accompanied Trumps tough talk about Tehran before the leaders of more than 55 Muslim-majority nations. Trump urged that all nations of conscience must work together to isolate Iran, deny it funding for terrorism, and pray for the day when the Iranian people have the just and righteous government they deserve.

Rouhani seemed to leave the door open to Trump, suggesting that the administration is still learning on the job...

Unsurprisingly, Trumps message fell flat among Iranians, generating derisive reactions on social media including from Irans foreign minister. In his news conference, Rouhani dismissed the Riyadh summit as a show and lightly mocked the Saudis for their attachment to hereditary rule and their reliance on American military technology and advising.

More importantly, Rouhani seemed to leave the door open to Trump, suggesting that the administration is still learning on the job and reminding Iraniansand the worldthat negotiations have proven the most effective tool for resolving bilateral differences between Washington and Tehran.

It is a message that the Trump administration would do well to heed, even in the triumphal aftermath of the Riyadh summit. Every U.S. president, both Republican and Democratic, has sought to engage in direct diplomacy with Tehran. Just as Trump was persuaded to jettison his anti-Islamic rhetoric in order headline a Muslim summit with the leaders of 55 Muslim-majority countries, the exigency for dialogue with Iran will surely arise. Given developments in Iraq and Syria, that time may come sooner rather than later.

Continue reading here:
What Will Rouhani's Repeat Mean for Iran and Washington? - Lawfare (blog)

Last weeks OPEC meeting was characterized by a certain banality. The news that OPEC and non-OPEC members would agree to another nine months of production cuts elicited a collective shrug from oil markets and brought about a fall in prices. Little that occurred gave rise to alarm, and apart from news that U.S. shale producers were in dialogue with OPEC officials and that Saudi Arabia and Russia were conniving on deeper cuts in the backroom, reporters were somewhat at a loss for what would make for a juicy story.

Amidst the routine nature of the meeting, however, was a somewhat surprising announcement from Iran, OPECs third-largest producer, that it would not be cutting any output but would instead maintain its current level of 3.8 million bpd. Irans oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, dodgedinitial questions regarding Irans compliance with OPECs agreement, but on May 25 stated categorically that Iran will not reduce its output.

There are indications that the country may be planning to ramp up production in order to fuel higher exports. In an interviewwith Argus Media, Zanganeh did not refute a claim from the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) that Iranian production would increase by 300,000 bpd by March 2018, though he did state Iran would respect the decision by OPEC.

He went on to state that by 2021 Iran would add 700,000 bpd to its overall capacity, with a targeted total capacity of 4.7 million bpd. He was hopeful that condensate production would increase from 600,000 bpd to 1 million bpd by March. The OPEC agreement was a short-term decision, and Iran was looking at the medium to long-term.

A major factor in Irans plans for increased output are contracts with foreign companies. The government of Hassan Rouhani has attempted to revamp Irans strict regulations for doing business with foreign companies. This process was stalled for months amidst resistance from Irans hard-liners, but Rouhanis re-election in May has spurred hopes that the countrys aging oil and gas infrastructure will soon enjoy major injections of foreign capital.

A deal with French oil giant Total is nearing completion, according to Zanganeh, which would see a more rapid development of the South Pars natural gas field, shared between Qatar and Iran. Total is musingan investment of $2.2 billion. Related:Saudis, Russia Will Do Whatever It Takes To Bring Oil To Balance

One Iranian official stated that deals worth $50 billion would be concluded in 2018, while Zanganeh mentioned forthcoming agreements with Lukoil, Maersk, Petronas and Petramina, though details of the deals are hard to come by.

A deal with China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) will be concluded in July, according to Zanganeh, and will focus on the development of Irans Azadegan deposit.

In Vienna, the Iranian oil minister talked up Irans desire to reconnect with the world. Rouhanis re-election was a sign that Iran was ready and willing to engage with the international community, despite renewed hostility from the United States and considerable suspicions from the Gulf States regarding Irans regional ambitions.

Yet apart from the hype stirred up by Irans oil administration, little concrete information regarding Irans new oil and gas deals has emerged. The much-anticipated flood of investment has yet to materialize. Rouhanis first election, and the deal signed in July 2015 over the countrys nuclear program, was meant to auger an end to Irans isolation. Rouhani was able to win re-election in May despite considerable disappointment over Irans stagnant economy, which he had vowed to reinvigorate in part through deals with foreign companies.

While it is certain that Rouhani will be more amenable to new oil deals than his challenger, hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, whether he is able to translate his electoral win into new investment for Irans oil and gas industry remains to be seen.

Zanganehs comments in Vienna mirror the declarations made by an NIOC official after the July 2015 agreement and contain much of the same sentiment: confidence, optimism that Irans dreams for higher production and exports will be realized, and a certain amount of hype. Thats nothing new for OPECs third-largest oil producer, which has vowed that it will respect the OPEC production deal even as it plans for the future; whether the money needed to realize that future appears is another question entirely.

By Gregory Brew for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Visit link:
Should Markets Fear Iran's Plans To Boost Oil Output? - OilPrice.com

Secretary of Defense James Mattis said in an interview with "Face the Nation" Saturday that Iran is at the center of dysfunction in the Middle East and remains a threat around the world, echoing President Trump's tough talk on the country.

"Face the Nation" host John Dickerson asked the retired Marine Corp general, a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, if he still stands by comments he made in 2011, when he ranked Iran as his top priority while he was the head of U.S. Central Command under President Barack Obama.

"I had a more -- let's just say, a narrower portfolio in those days," Mattis said. "And in the U.S. Central Region, what we find is wherever there are challenges, wherever there is chaos, wherever there is violence, whether it be in Lebanon, in Syria, in Iraq, in Yemen, the attempts to unsettle Bahrain. We always find Iran and the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] at it."

"It's not the Iranian people," Mattis added. "We are convinced it's a regime that is conducting itself in order to stay in power in Tehran as a revolutionary regime, not as a proper nation-state. They are not looking out for the best interests of their own people."

Play Video

Gen. James Mattis, Secretary of Defense admits that engaging diplomatically with Russia while confronting them on issues of cyber and borders pre...

On the topic of Iran's overall international threat, Mattis resurrected the story of an assassination attempt in 2011 in Washington of Saudi Arabian diplomat Adel al-Jubier by an Iranian American with close links to the Quds Force, an Iranian paramilitary organization known for its ties to terrorism.

"You have got this revolutionary cause that causes them to then go around creating mischief everywhere, to include trying to murder an Arab ambassador fewer than two miles from the White House a couple years ago," Mattis said.

He continued: "And I've seen the intelligence. This was not a rogue agent. This was an operation approved at the highest levels. And so, you know, ambassadors are men and women of peace. And for someone to try to murder an ambassador in Washington D.C., you can understand why President Obama was committed to stopping the nuclear program."

Mattis' revisiting of old hostilities between the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Iran follows a historic $110-billion arms deal. President Trump and Saudi officials signed the deal this month during Mr. Trump's visit to the country's capital, Riyadh -- the first stop of Mr. Trump's first trip abroad as president.

In a largely scripted speech before prominent Muslim leaders, Mr. Trump used his position to mend sectarian differences and lambaste Iran, tying the country directly to terror groups as well as addressing its government's failures.

"The Iranian regime's longest-suffering victims are its own people," Mr. Trump said. "Until the Iranian regime is willing to be a partner for peace, all nations of conscience must work together to isolate Iran, deny it funding for terrorism."

2017 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.

See the original post:
Mattis scolds Iran for destabilization, echoing Trump's tough talk - CBS News