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Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif speaks to the media in Tblisi, Georgia, April 18, 2017.(photo byREUTERS/David Mdzinarishvili)

Author:Hassan Ahmadian Posted June 13, 2017

On June 5, Saudi Arabia along with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt severed diplomatic and trade relations with Qatar, effectively imposing a siege on Doha. Besides the many discussions surrounding its causes, the apparently Saudi-led move against Qatar has sparked debate in Tehran on Irans policy toward the rift and the consequences it might bring about. Officially, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was quick to respond, tweeting on June 5, Neighbors are permanent; geography cant be changed. Coercion is never the solution. Dialogue is imperative, especially during blessed Ramadan. Meanwhile, Hamid Aboutalebi, the presidents deputy chief of staff for political affairs, tweeted that severingrelations is not the right way out of crises. Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghassemi said differences among Irans neighbors threaten the interests of all states of the region and urged them to overcome differences through dialogue.

As such, Tehran chose to criticize the Saudi-led approach toward Doha by stressing the need for dialogue instead of confrontation. But does Iran really want the rift mainly within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to be overcome?

For over a decade, Iran-Saudi relations have seen many ups and downs, leading to Riyadh'ssevering ties with Tehran in January 2016, following the storming of Saudi diplomatic facilities in Iran after the execution of a prominent Saudi dissident Shiite cleric. King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud has prioritized isolating Iran, abandoning the preference of his predecessor, King Abdullah, to simultaneously contain both Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. Thus, outright animosity has replaced rivalry in the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

WhilePresident Hassan Rouhani's administrationhas kept insisting on the need for dialogue to ease tension, Saudi Arabia has emphasized the need for Iran'srevision of its regional policies. In prioritizing the containment of Iran, Riyadh has struggled to keep Qatar and Turkey, the main supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood, onboard. This shaky coalition, which included anti- and pro-Brotherhood nations in the region, clearly could not withstand mounting differences. While understandable in 2014, amid Abdullahs anti-Brotherhood policy, the present cutting of ties with Qatar as part of Salmans "counter-Iran-first" policy lacks a realist dimension.

With Riyadh casting Qatar away, Tehran should be thrilled about the loss of Saudi Arabias regional concentration on countering Iran. Thus, why is it calling for dialogue instead of supporting Qatar? Four possible motivations may be at play.

First, there are indications of an ongoing Qatari-Saudi escalation Iran cannot live with an all-out confrontation in the Persian Gulf region. Indeed, continued escalation can harm Irans national security both in terms of spreading instabilityand the invitation of more foreign troops into the region. Iran needs neither of the aforementioned, especially under US President Donald Trump.

Second, Iran knows that it cannot replace Saudi Arabias role and influence in the region with that of Qatar. The endgame for Iran cannot be a Persian Gulf divided into pro- and anti-Iran nations. While a divided rather than unified GCC with an anti-Iran posture is certainly preferred, this cannot be the endgame, since it means a continued regional disequilibrium on the one hand and more open space for foreign forces and arms shipments into the region on the other. Therefore, a compromise is needed. By calling for dialogue, Tehran is trying to prove the vanity of Saudi attempts to forge an anti-Iran consensus.

Third, Iran doesnt want to risk being portrayed as a power capitalizing on regional tension and instability. Saudi Arabia has been trying successfully to some extent to spread a tension-inclined image of Iran in the region. Taking sides in the Saudi-Qatari split would help consolidate that image.

Fourth, Iran is benefiting from the differences among GCC member states without having to interfere and take sides in their current dispute. Previous experiences tell Iranian decision-makers that taking sides could complicate things and turn out to be counterproductive. Thereupon come Irans calls for dialogue to ease tensions.

But is Irans official stance serving the Islamic Republic the way it is meant?

For all of its meanings, Irans pro-dialogue policy might appear as appeasing Saudi Arabia at a time when Riyadh prioritizes Iran as its main threat. This author has argued before that by avoiding any tension with Saudi Arabia, Iran may be inviting Saudi escalation against both Tehran and its allieswhile at the same timetying its own hands in terms of its responses. Maintaining its current cautious stance might not serve Irans interests in the long run, especially if the intra-GCC gap and confrontation expands.

Irans logical choice at this point is to tilt towardQatar. Foreign Minister Zarif has made this posture clear through his telephone diplomacy with many of his regional counterparts including the Qatari foreign minister and his recent visit to Turkey. The question now is if Irans decision to cautiously stand with Doha will serve Irans interests in the region. There are four reasons why Irans posture makes sense.

First, a rift among the pro- and anti-Brotherhood camps in the region is strategically in Irans favor. Saudi Arabia tried to avoid such a split by prioritizing Iran as the main threat. Yethaving Qatar and Turkey versus the UAE and Egypt in the same boat turned out to be overly problematic for Riyadh. In that sense, the Saudi move against Qatar is thoroughly counterproductive for its anti-Iran campaign in the region, and Iran should not help Riyadh correct its mistakes.

Second, it should be considered that the rift was not only about the Brotherhoodbut also about Qatars policy toward Iran. Therefore, Tehran cannot and should not stand idly by while Doha is being punished for its different approach toward Iran. Indeed, it would be counterproductive for Tehran to fail to stand on the side of those who oppose the Saudi approach towardIran and tryto rid themselves of it.

Third, Riyadh has exhausted its options against Iran in recent years. For lack of much-needed cards, Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in early May spoke about taking the fight into Iran, crossing previously agreed-upon red lines between the two nations. As such, Iran doesnt have anything to lose in backing Qatar against Saudi Arabia. On the contrary, Tehran can gain a lot by supporting Qatar.

Fourth, standing with Qatar can help strengthen Tehrans ties with Doha, Ankara and their Brotherhood allies, who possibly moving towarda regional understanding of sorts with Iran and its allies can play constructive roles in Syria, Yemen and elsewhere in the region. Additionally, it can hinder Saudi Arabias capacity to assemble coalitions aimed against Iran, Qatar and other nations in the future as well.

The choice Iran now faces is that of whether to stick to its current and tried policy of seeking de-escalation in the face of Saudi-led confrontation. Indeed, there are signs of this default posture being abandoned. If Iran is to learn from past experiences, there is no alternative to diplomatically confronting Saudi Arabia on the regional stage especially since it is becoming increasingly clear that the Islamic Republic has nothing to lose through the latter.

Read More: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/06/iran-stance-qatar-crisis-saudi-arabia-rivalry-assertion.html

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Iran maneuvers to capitalize on Qatar crisis - Al-Monitor

Iranian police officers secure the area around the mausoleum of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini following an assault there and on the country's parliament building that left at least 17 people dead last week. Ebrahim Noroozi/AP hide caption

Iranian police officers secure the area around the mausoleum of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini following an assault there and on the country's parliament building that left at least 17 people dead last week.

Iran says security forces have killed the "mastermind and main commander" of last week's attacks in Tehran that killed 17 people. ISIS had claimed responsibility for the violence at the parliament and the mausoleum of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

Iranian Minister of Intelligence Mahmoud Alavi said over the weekend that "the terrorist had fled the country following the ensuing security operations after the attack, but was killed with the cooperation of friendly foreign intelligence services," according to the Iranian Students' News Agency.

Alavi did not give details about where the man was killed, other than to say that the commander of the five attackers had been in Iran's border region and had left the country last week.

Alavi also said that in the past three months, Iran has broken up 25 terrorist teams.

Last Wednesday's rare and coordinated attacks on Tehran left dozens of people wounded. At least some of the attackers reportedly disguised themselves by wearing women's clothing, using guns and explosives to cause mayhem at the mausoleum and parliament, or Majlis.

While ISIS claimed responsibility, Iranian officials have also suggested Saudi Arabia may have played a role and Iran's foreign minister called the official U.S. response "repugnant," after President Trump ended his expression of condolences for the victims with the message that "states that sponsor terrorism risk falling victim to the evil they promote."

Announcing the retribution against the mastermind behind the attack, Alavi used another term for ISIS to say, "Our enemy is not Daesh, but rather Daesh is a tool in the hand of our foes," according to the Islamic Republic News Agency.

As the Tehran Times reports, "Iran has been helping the governments in neighboring Iraq and Syria in fight against Daesh, which considers Shiites to be apostates."

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Iran Says It Killed Mastermind Of Deadly Attacks On Parliament And Mausoleum - NPR

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U.S. Cyberweapons, Used Against Iran and North Korea, Are a ... - New York Times

Iran celebrated on Monday as the country's national soccer team qualified for next year's World Cup finals by beating Uzbekistan 2-0 with goals from Sardar Azmoun and Mehdi Taremi.

Azmoun's goal midway through the first half at the Azadi Stadium put them on track to qualify for a place in Russia before Taremi added a second two minutes from time as Iran reached back-to-back World Cup tournaments for the first time.

The three-time Asian champions, who also missed a penalty just after the break, became the second nation after five-times champions Brazil to qualify for the finals by securing a fifth World Cup appearance at the 32-team tournament.

Iran's president Hassan Rouhani congratulated the nation and the players on clinching a place at the finals. "Your victory made all of us happy... Guys well done for the qualification for the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia," he tweeted.

Thousands of Iranians spilled onto the streets after the match with impromptu street parties in Tehran and across the country as people danced, waved flags and honked car horns.

"People are shouting 'Iran, Iran'... It is like a carnival We are so happy and proud of our team," said Iran fan Reza Ghanbari in northern Tehran's Tajrish Square.

The win means Portuguese coach Carlos Queiroz's Iran team will finish in the top two places in Group A of Asia's final round of qualifying. Uzbekistan are eight points adrift of the leaders in third place and have only two games remaining.

The top two teams in each of Asia's two qualifying groups advance automatically to the finals while the teams in third place go through a series of playoffs.

Azmoun opened the scoring in the 23rd minute when Alireza Jahanbaksh's through ball found the FC Rostov striker with time and space behind the Uzbek defense to roll the ball under goalkeeper Aleksandr Lobanov and into the net.

Captain Masoud Shojaei squandered the chance to double Iran's advantage five minutes into the second half when he fired a penalty over the bar after Taremi had been bundled over in the box by Akmal Shorakhmedov.

But Taremi calmed Iran's nerves when he added the second goal late on by curling a low shot into the corner of Lobanov's goal to spark the celebrations amongst the home supporters.

(Writing by Michael Church in Hong Kong; Additional reporting by Parisa Hafezi in Ankara; Editing by Ken Ferris)

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Soccer: Iran celebrates as national team earns World Cup spot - Reuters

President Trump is preparing to accept hundreds of refugees from Iran and other terrorist-connected countries, taking them from camps being maintained by Australia under a deal his predecessor struck, without putting them through the long vetting that usually takes place, according to a report being released Monday.

Some of the refugees have tried to cleanse their social media presence to try to delete red flags that could cost them their chance to come to the U.S., the Center for Immigration Studies report concludes.

A staggering 88 percent of the refugees have some level of mental illness or disorder, according to a U.N. health inspection last year. And the centers report documents incidents of rape and sexual assault perpetrated by the refugees on locals.

Australia has been looking for a landing place for the refugees for years, and President Obama agreed to take them. Mr. Trump criticized the dumb deal in February, and shared a testy phone call with Australias prime minister, but has since relented and is moving quickly to welcome the refugees.

Usually processing refugees takes up to 24 months, but analysts said the process for this set is likely to be eight months, with the first due to arrive by late September.

The process is well underway, Nayla Rush, a senior policy analyst at the center, says in the report.

The refugees tried to reach Australia but were instead detoured to camps on Nauru and Manus Island north of Australia. The vast majority are Iranian one of the countries Mr. Trump has specifically singled out as a trouble spot in his extreme vetting policies. Others are from Sudan and Somalia, which are also on the list.

Australia says it has assurances the deal wont be affected by Mr. Trumps executive order attempting to halt refugee admissions and banning entry to most visitors from Iran, Sudan, Somalia, Syria, Yemen and Libya.

Some 850 refugees have been identified by the U.N. as candidates for resettlement in the U.S., and American officials are now going through that list and doing their own review.

Homeland Security officials began interviews in May, with decisions on the first group of 70 people expected in weeks.

In exchange for the U.S. taking the refugees off its hands, Australia has committed to taking several dozen Central Americans who are in Costa Rica, hoping to make their way north to the U.S.

Ms. Rush said she can understand Australias thinking, but wondered what the Obama administration saw in the deal and why Mr. Trump, who was initially critical, has now reversed himself.

What is hard to comprehend is President Trumps agreement to move ahead with this deal, she wrote.

She said members of Congress have tried to pry loose more details on the refugee deal, without success.

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Trump moves to accept hundreds of refugees from Iran under Obama deal - Washington Times