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What if Turkey collapses?

It's not outside the realm of possibility. Turkey's currency is in free fall. Inflation is at 15% and climbing. The Turkish economy could enter a recession. The US has imposed economic sanctions on the country because President Recep Tayyip Erdogan refuses to hand over an American preacher who has been jailed there.

Lots of things are going wrong in Turkey, all at once.

As this map shows, Turkey may not be important economically in terms of contagion to the rest of the global economy but it sure is important strategically and militarily.

Turkey is the bridge between the democratic, peaceful West and the war-ridden dictatorships of the East.

How strong do we want this bridge to be?

Countries ranked by the percentage of their exports that go to Turkey. Credit Suisse

If you are not confident about where Turkey is on the map, you are not alone. It's only when you see Turkey's borders that you realize why everyone is freaking out about the lira crisis.

On its Western flank, Turkey borders Greece and Bulgaria, Western-facing members of the European Union. A few years ago, Turkey a member of NATO was preparing the join Europe as a full member.

Turkey's other borders face six nations: Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Armenia, and Nakhchivan, a territory affiliated with Azerbaijan. Five of those are involved in ongoing armed conflicts or outright war.

Turkey is the thing that has physically prevented the Islamic State terrorist group from rolling into Greece. It keeps the Syrian war inside Syria. It prevents the Russians from rolling back into Bulgaria. And it deters the Iraqis, Iranians, and Kurds from escalating their various conflicts northward into Europe.

That's the reason Turkey has the largest standing army in Europe. We need Turkey to be strong and stable, in other words.

That's why two recent moves by Erdogan are so chilling:

The lira has lost 45% of its value against the US dollar this year.Yahoo Finance

In the immediate term, Erdogan's economic illiteracy is particularly worrying: Turkey's biggest, easiest weapon to contain its crisis is higher interest rates.

In principle, when a central bank raises interest rates, it sells bonds, taking in currency from those sales, and thus makes its own money more scarce and more valuable.

High rates would also encourage savers to put money into Turkish banks. That is exactly what Turkey needs to prevent a run on its central bank and a wider economic collapse. And it is the one tactic Erodgan bafflingly doesn't believe should be used.

He is condemning his nation to an inflation spiral that will, unchecked, look like the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic.

From a strategic or military point of view, Erdogan "looking for new friends" is even more worrying. Turkey suddenly has a lot in common with Iran, Syria, and, across the Black Sea, Russia: They are all the targets of US sanctions.

Do we really want Turkey to turn toward Iran, Syria, or Russia? Because that's one potential outcome if the West cannot find a way to keep Erdogan inside the fold.

What is the endgame here, if Erdogan doesn't reverse course on interest, or if the US maintains or increases its sanctions?

The worst-case scenario is a Turkish government that cannot pay the army that controls its borders, in search of "new friends" to bail it out.

Thus the lira continues its plunge.

Read more from the original source:
What if Turkey collapses from lira crisis? Iran, Russia ...

Mention the word Iran to most people and this image is probably close to what first comes to mind:

Older people will remember a vastly different impression of Iran though, the Iran from before the Islamic Revolution. There are a large number of pictures and videos out there that show a radically different country from the one today (some might be from the 1960s BTW) so I've gathered a few of them together.

(Edit: Actually the pictures are almost all people so perhaps Iranians in the 1970s would be a more appropriate title)First some photos from two videos here and here:

A few screen shots from this video:

As well as some other images from here and there:

Finally, here are some links to other photos from Flickr that can't be posted here but are still worth looking at.

See also this video I uploaded last month that shows what spoken Persian sounds like:

And if you've been interested in learning Persian but have been intimidated by the script, don't worry: Persian is a much easier language to learn than you might think (I'm learning it myself and can attest to that). It does take a while to get used to reading the script but after that it's really easy to pick up. Easy verb conjugation, no grammatical gender, plural is easy to form, etc. To watch BBC Persian's newscast online see here and here.

Edit: in response to the first comment - I haven't assembled the images in an attempt to make pre-revolutionary Iran look like a golden age, but rather to show that Iranians/Persians are much less conservative at heart than one might be led to believe (yes, it does vary by region and ethnic group but still). I chose to focus on Iranians alone and not the government at the time for that reason.

See the article here:
Page F30: Iran in the 1970s before the Islamic Revolution

Iran began a large-scale exercise in the Strait of Hormuz involving more than 50 small boats that is expected to last several hours. (AP)

Iran began a large-scale exercise in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday involving more than 50 small boats, practicing swarming operations that could potentially shut down the vital water way if ever deployed for real, U.S. officials said.

The drill, which officials anticipate will end in a matter of hours since the gun boats are small, comes after President Trump pulled the U.S. out of a landmark nuclear accord with Iran and leaders of both countries exchanged fiery rhetoric.

"We are aware of the increase in Iranian naval operations within the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman," Navy Capt. Bill Urban, a U.S. Central Command spokesperson, said in a statement. "We are monitoring it closely, and will continue to work with our partners to ensure freedom of navigation and free flow of commerce in international waterways.

Roughly 10 percent of the worlds oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. officials say there has been no indication of any threats to American forces.

Currently, the guided-missile destroyer USS The Sullivans is in the Persian Gulf. Some British and French warships are nearby in the region. There are also 10 American patrol craft based in Bahrain at the headquarters for the U.S. Navys 5th fleet.

The U.S. destroyer is part of the Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier strike group, but the aircraft carrier is not in the Persian Gulf or surrounding area right now, having returned to Norfolk, Va. late last month following a three-month deployment.

The Trump administration plans to impose more sanctions on Iran next week, drawing the ire of senior Iranian leaders.

Trump said Monday, however, he would be willing to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani with no preconditions.

Iranian officials the next day rejected Trump's overture.

Since the U.S. pulled out of the nuclear deal, Irans currency has plummeted, drawing thousands of protesters across major cities in Iran in recent weeks.

Lucas Tomlinson is the Pentagon and State Department producer for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @LucasFoxNews

See original here:
Iran deploys 50 small boats to Strait of Hormuz for large ...

"COLOR US UNIMPRESSED," Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted Monday night, employing Trump's penchant to use all capital letters in his tweets.

"The world heard even harsher bluster a few months ago. And Iranians have heard them -- albeit more civilized ones -- for 40 yrs. We've been around for millennia & seen fall of empires, incl our own, which lasted more than the life of some countries. BE CAUTIOUS."

Zarif's online comments are the latest in the escalating war of words between Washington and Tehran. Zarif's tweet comes less than a day after Trump posted a furious Twitter warning to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

"NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE," Trump tweeted after returning to the White House from a weekend at his golf resort in Bedminster, New Jersey.

"WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!"

Later Monday morning, national security adviser John Bolton said Trump told him that "if Iran does anything at all to the negative, they will pay a price like few countries have ever paid before."

Foreign policy challenge

Iran experts are unsure if the 280 character-limit broadsides are more likely to foreshadow conflict or if they are a way to project strength before engaging Tehran diplomatically.

Trump employed similarly heated rhetoric when responding to threats and missile tests by North Korea last year.

"The reality is he's such an erratic President that you could see him dropping bombs on Iran or you could see him trying to build hotels in Iran," said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment.

"He's much more impulsive than he is strategic."

When asked if Trump risked inciting war with Iran, White House press secretary Sarah Sanders told reporters Monday morning, "if anybody is inciting anything, look no further than to Iran."

She wouldn't directly say whether Trump consulted with his national security team before the tweet. He speaks with them daily, she said, but declined to give any details about any steps Trump is looking to take with Iran.

"The President's been, I think, pretty strong since day one in his language toward Iran. He was responding to comments made from them, and he's going to continue to focus on the safety and security of American people," Sanders said at the White House briefing later Monday. She declined repeated questions about whether Trump would consider meeting with Rouhani.

Trump came into office vowing to take a hard line on Iran and scrap the Obama-negotiated nuclear deal of 2015, a promise he fulfilled in May.

The agreement forced Iran to curtail its uranium enrichment capacity to prevent it developing nuclear weapons, and imposed stringent verification processes, in exchange for relief on crippling sanctions.

One of Trump's many criticisms of the accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was that it did not do enough to stop Iran from funding extremist groups throughout the Middle East.

The other signatories to the deal, including France, the UK and Germany, have vowed to stand by it.

'Something that resembles the mafia'

"The level of corruption and wealth among regime leaders shows that Iran is run by something that resembles the mafia more than a government," Pompeo said during an appearance at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum.

Like Trump, Pompeo is a longstanding critic of the nuclear deal.

"We are asking every nation who is sick and tired of the Islamic Republic's destructive behavior to join our pressure campaign. This especially goes for our allies in the Middle East and Europe, people who have themselves been terrorized by violent regime activity for decades," said Pompeo.

Pompeo, the former director of the CIA, also used the speech to allege that the county's leaders have made billions of dollars from corrupt dealings.

The secretary accused Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's head of state, of maintaining a personal off-the-books hedge fund worth $95 billion.

"These hypocritical holy men have devised all kinds of crooked schemes to become some of the wealthiest men on Earth while their people suffer."

Link:
Iran shoots back at Trump: 'Color us unimpressed'

WASHINGTON -- President Trump warned Iranian President Hassan Rouhani early Monday that he will face dire consequences for threatening the United States. Mr. Trump tweeted in all capital letters about the dangers to Iran of making hostile threats after Rouhani said Sunday, "American must understand well that peace with Iran is the mother of all peace and war with Iran is the mother of all wars."

Within hours, Iranian state-owned news agency IRNA dismissed Mr. Trump's tweet, describing it as a "passive reaction" to Rouhani's remarks.

The agency, a government mouthpiece, also said Monday that Mr. Trump's comment was only mimicking and copying Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who had in the past warned the West to "never threaten an Iranian."

Mr. Trump earlier this year pulled the United States out of the international deal meant to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon and ordered increased American sanctions.

Rouhani had warned Mr. Trump Sunday to stop "playing with the lion's tail" and threatening Iran, "or else you will regret it."

Mr. Trump has suggested Iranian leaders are "going to call me and say 'let's make a deal'" but Iran has rejected talks.

Rouhani has previously lashed out against Mr. Trump for threatening to re-impose the sanctions, as well as for moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and banning travel to the U.S. from certain Muslim-majority countries.

Mr. Trump's early Monday tweet suggested he has little patience with the trading of hostile messages with Iran.

Mr. Trump has a history of firing off heated tweets that seem to quickly escalate long-standing disputes with leaders of nations at odds with the U.S.

In the case of North Korea, the public war of words cooled quickly and gradually led to the high profile summit and denuclearization talks.

Of the tweet by Mr. Trump, the Reuters news service says, "The escalation in rhetoric came as the Trump administration has launched an offensive of speeches and online communications meant to foment unrest and help pressure Iran to end its nuclear program and its support of militant groups, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter."

In California Sunday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was strongly critical of Tehran.

He called the religious leaders of Iran "hypocritical holy men" who amassed vast sums of wealth while allowing their people to suffer, part of a highly critical broadside issued as the republic approached the 40th anniversary of its Islamic revolution and the U.S. prepared to reimpose the economic sanctions.

In a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum, Pompeo castigated Iran's political, judicial and military leaders, too, accusing several by name of participating in widespread corruption. He also said the government has "heartlessly repressed its own people's human rights, dignity and fundamental freedoms."

He said despite poor treatment by their leaders, "the proud Iranian people are not staying silent about their government's many abuses."

"And the United States under President Trump will not stay silent either. In light of these protests and 40 years of regime tyranny, I have a message for the people of Iran: The United States hears you," he said. "The United States supports you. The United States is with you."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Mr. Trump for his "strong stance" on Iran.

Netanyahu said Mr. Trump and his secretary of state were taking a clear position against "Iranian aggression" after years in which the "regime was pampered by world powers."

The Israeli prime minister spoke at his weekly Cabinet meeting Monday, after Mr. Trump's tweet.

White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters on Monday that the president was responding to Iran and that he's "not going to allow them to continue to make threats against America. If anybody is inciting anything look no further than to Iran."

Asked if he had consulted with this national security team before tweeting the edict, Sanders said that the president consults with his national security team "on a daily basis."

National security adviser John Bolton said in a statement on Monday that he had spoken to Mr. Trump over the last several days, "and President Trump told me that if Iran does anything at all to the negative, they will pay a price like few countries have ever paid before."

A high-ranking Iranian officer says Mr. Trump's Monday warning was nothing but "psychological warfare."

Gen. Gholam Hossein Gheibparvar, the chief of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard's volunteer Basij force, also said Monday that Mr. Trump "won't dare" take any military action against Iran. Gheibparvar's comments were reported by the semi-official ISNA news agency.

Iranian lawmaker Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh told The Associated Press he doubted it would come to a military confrontation between Iran and the United States, despite the escalating rhetoric.

Falahatpisheh says Mr. Trump and his Iranian counterpart "express themselves through speeches since diplomatic channels are closed" as the two countries haven't had diplomatic relations since 1979.

He says that unlike North Korea, "Iran never moved toward a nuclear bomb" and that therefore, "Iran is angry since Trump responded to Tehran's engagement diplomacy by pulling the U.S. out of the nuclear deal."

More here:
Trump warns Iran's president in all-caps tweet to stop ...