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A proposal to transfer control of a Red Sea port could have wide-ranging effects on regional tension.

If President Trump travels to Riyadh later this month, as reported, he will find that the six leaders of the Gulf Coordination Council (GCC) countries hold widely divergent views on Iran, the extent of the Iranian threat, and how to resolve the conflict inYemen.

This divergence has made it difficult to coordinate on a policy to challenge Irans bad behavior without tipping the region into open conflict. So far, such efforts have focused on improving regional defense capabilities and U.S.-GCC security cooperation. In particular, the Trump administration has indicated it will help the Saudi-led coalition fight the pro-Iranian Houthi insurgency in Yemen by providing advanced munitions as well as logistics and intelligence support.

But Oman has been a particularly reluctant partner in the GCCs desire to confront Iran, and even the other non-Saudi GCC states favor a reduction in regionaltensions.

Iranian President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif are maneuvering to exploit these rifts, seeking to isolate the Saudis from their smaller Gulf partners. But Iran itself is beset by internal policy differences over how to deal with the Gulf states. And as presidential elections approach, Rouhani is aware that heightened regional tensions weaken his hand with the hard-liners who surround Ayatollah Khamenei. Cooling the temperature in the Gulf could be his best bet to securere-election.

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Yemen may be the key to solving the GCCs Iran problem. After last years Kuwait round of Yemeni negotiations ended in stalemate, the Saudi-led coalition determined that only a shift in the military balance would bring the Houthis and their allies, loyalists of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, back to the negotiating table. A strategy was derived to push the Houthis off the Red Sea coast the Yemeni terminus of the arms-smuggling route that begins in Iran and seize the vital port ofHodeidah.

More recently, however, concerns over the complexity of a military operation to drive an entrenched force from a city of at least one million people has led the coalition to re-consider its position. Yemens Hadi government, along with the Saudis and Emiratis, is signaling its willingness to accept a peaceful transfer of the city and port to a neutral third party. That party would be responsible for repairing damaged port facilities, allowing unfettered access to humanitarian relief organizations, and ensuring that the port would no longer be used for arms smuggling. There are encouraging signs that Houthi and Saleh forces may agree to thisproposal.

With just weeks to go before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, an agreement to return the port of Hodeidah to full operation would be very good news for the long-suffering Yemeni population. According to UN estimates, 70 to 80 percent of the countrys humanitarian deliveries and an even greater share of commercial food and fuel imports come through theport.

Even more importantly, an agreement among the parties to transfer control of the port to a neutral party might spark a return to UN-led negotiations. UN Special Envoy Ismail Ould Chaikh Ahmed is seeking an agreement among the parties to allow the government to return to the capital, Sanaa, and resume functioning while negotiations continue over restructuring the interim government and concluding the political transition under the terms of the GCC Initiative. A side agreement to restore functionality to Yemens Central Bank could pump billions of Yemeni rials into the economy and help ordinary Yemenis provide for their essentialneeds.

Oman, which alone among the GCC states has maintained a continuing dialogue with the Houthis, can play an important role in pressing for this outcome. Moreover, Omans constructive relationship with Iran can also be an important lever to secure Iranian tacit cooperation. Although Iran doesnt control the Houthis, Irans encouragement to respond positively to the coalition initiative and agree to work with the UN Special Envoy can tip the scales toward the desiredoutcome.

Using Omani diplomacy to achieve broader GCC goals in Yemen, and to ensure that the country is not a continuing source of instability and insecurity in the Arabian Peninsula, can thus contribute to reconciling disparate GCC views on managing Iran while bringing Yemens two-year old conflict to a peacefulconclusion.

Read more:
Yemen Could Be the Key to Solving the Iran Problem - Defense One

BEIRUT Iran will provide military advisers to Syria for as long as necessary in support of President Bashar al Assad's forces, a senior commander in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards was quoted on Tuesday as saying.

Iran has provided military support to Assad's forces since at least 2012, but initially did not comment publicly on its role. But as the military support increased and Iranian casualties also rose, officials began to speak more openly.

"The advisory help isn't only in the field of planning but also on techniques and tactics," the Fars news agency quoted Mohammad Pakpour, head of the Revolutionary Guard ground forces, as saying. "And because of this the forces have to be present on the battlefield."

"We will continue our advisory help as long as they (the Syrians) need it," he added.

An Iranian official said late last year that more than 1,000 Iranians had been killed in the Syrian civil war. These include a handful of senior commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, according to Iranian media reports.

Iran has helped to train and organize thousands of Shi'ite militia fighters from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan in the Syrian conflict. Fighters from Lebanon's Hezbollah are also working closely with Iranian military commanders in Syria.

Pakpour said the Revolutionary Guards' ground forces were in Syria to help the Quds Force, the branch of the Guards responsible for operations outside of Iran's own borders.

"There is very close coordination between the Syrian army and the Revolutionary Guards advisers," Pakpour said.

Iran and Russia are Assad's main allies in the conflict, while the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states support opposition groups seeking to overthrow him.

Russia's intervention in the conflict has tilted it decisively back into Assad's favor.

(Reporting By Babak Dehghanpisheh; Editing by Gareth Jones)

PARIS France's presidential rivals, centrist Emmanuel Macron and the far-right's Marine Le Pen, go head-to-head on Wednesday in a televised debate in which sparks are sure to fly as they fight their corner in a last encounter before Sunday's runoff vote.

WASHINGTON/MOSCOW U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday moved to ease the tension from U.S. air strikes in April against Russian ally Syria, expressing a desire for a Syrian ceasefire and safe zones for the civil war's refugees.

Read the original:
Iran to continue sending military advisers to Syria: Guards commander - Reuters

During the course of negotiations which culminated in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the corollary United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, Iran achieved a change in language with regard to its ballistic missile program. UN Security Council Resolution 1929 from 2010 declared that the Security Council decides that Iran shall not undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons whereas 2231 declared, Iran is called upon not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons. Iranian leaders say that the more recent wording does not technically ban ballistic missile work and, regardless, they deny they design missiles to carry nuclear weapons, fiercely defending the acceleration of Irans ballistic missile program.

A ballistic missile is launched and tested in an undisclosed location, Iran, March 9, 2016. REUTERS/Mahmood Hosseini

In the wake of the JCPOA, Iran has tested at least ten ballistic missiles. While most news coverage focuses on the increasing range of such missiles, the following excerpted article quoting the chief of staff of the armed forces, claims that Iran has also made great strides in accuracy since the time when Irans missile program was based on the notoriously inaccurate SCUDs. The Iranian claims about increasing accuracy may not simply be hyperbole: In March 2016, Iran test-fired two different types of Qadr ballistic missiles from the Alborz Mountains near the Caspian which, according to the Iranian Defense Ministry, successfully struck targets on Irans Makran Coast, on the Indian Ocean.

Improving Iranian missile accuracy may spur a further arms and missile race among Arab Gulf countries. While Israel might be concerned with such developments as well, Israeli anti-missile defenses can likely counter such threats regardless of their warheads accuracy. Regardless, growing Iranian missile accuracy reflects on the growing technical competence of Irans indigenous military industries and might also suggest that Western attempts to embargo high-technology and dual use goods may be falling short.

More:
Iran Claims Enhanced Missile Precision - American Enterprise Institute

New York Times

Iran and US Discuss Issue of Americans Imprisoned by Tehran New York Times Iran said Monday that it had discussed the issue of Americans with dual citizenship held in Iranian prisons during a meeting last week with the United States. The discussion, during a meeting in Vienna on compliance with the 2015 Iranian nuclear accord ... Iran acknowledges discussing detained dual nationals with USABC News Iran acknowledges discussing detained dual nationals with US | The ...Salt Lake Tribune all 6 news articles »

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Iran and US Discuss Issue of Americans Imprisoned by Tehran - New York Times

"I'm glad we're doing something on Iran [sanctions], but if the bill comes out of committee on the floor I'm going to add Russian sanctions to it. Try to anyway," Graham told reporters on Tuesday evening.

"We will be looking at other options, including the Senate Armed Services Committee," McCain, who chairs that committee, told reporters.

Graham and McCain put out a joint statement noting they could try to move the legislation through the Banking Committee or as an amendment on the Senate floor.

A bipartisan group of senators, including McCain and Graham, introduced legislation earlier this year that would impose new sanctions on Russia for its meddling in the U.S. presidential election as well as ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Syria.

They're also backing legislation that would require congressional oversight before Trump lifted Russia sanctions tied to Ukraine. Both bills have stalled in the Foreign Relations Committee.

Corker, who chairs the Foreign Relations Committee, told reporters on Tuesday that he wanted to give the administration time to determine the "trajectory" of U.S.-Russia relations, which he said are at an "all time low."

"We can take it to a lower level by adding sanctions. That you know might make us feel good, but that's not an outcome that I think is good for our country," he told reporters.

Sen. Ben CardinBen CardinGOP senator: I'll try to add Russia sanctions to Iran bill Corker: 'We're not going to do a Russia sanctions bill' Dem senator calls on Trump to 'immediately rescind' Duterte invite MORE (D-Md.), the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, also told reporters last week that there wasn't as much urgency behind the bill requiring Congress to sign off before Trump lifts sanctions, though he stressed he still supports the proposal.

Instead, Corker signaled that lawmakers could move an Iran sanctions bill in the current Senate work period, which runs through the end of May.

Senators, including Corker and Cardin, introduced a bipartisan Iran sanctions bill earlier this year that wouldexpand financial penalties targeting Iran's ballistic missile development, support for terrorism any transfer of weapons and human rights violations.

Graham would have the ability to try to attach Russia sanctions once it gets to the floor unless Majority Leader Mitch McConnellMitch McConnellOvernight Defense: GOP chair to unveil Pentagon buying reforms in May | Trump surge fades for contractors | McCain concerned about Army nominee's comments GOP senators dismiss Trump filibuster change Overnight Finance: Trump raises stakes for next shutdown fight | Senate confirms SEC pick | Dems drag out markup of Dodd-Frank overhaul MORE (R-Ky.) uses the Senate's rulebook to clamp down on amendments.

See the rest here:
GOP senator: I'll try to add Russia sanctions to Iran bill - The Hill (blog)