Archive for the ‘Iran’ Category

Iran Plans To Raise Crude Oil Production Capacity By 3 Million Bpd – OilPrice.com

Iran plans to lift its crude oil production capacity by 3 million bpd, Iranian oil ministrys news service, Shana, reported on Monday, quoting a senior official as saying that the move was aimed at boosting the Islamic Republics footing in OPEC and the global market.

Speaking on the sidelines of an oil industry conference in Iran, Gholam-Reza Manouchehri, Deputy Head of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) for Engineering and Development, did not provide specific timeframe for Iran reaching that increase, which Platts is calculating at about an 80-percent capacity boost.

Iran, currently OPECs no. 3 biggest producer behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, was allowed to slightly lift its production to up to 3.797 million bpd between January and June, while the two biggest, archrival Saudi Arabia, as well as Iraq, had to cut the most.

Since western sanctions on Iranian oil exports were lifted in January 2016, Tehran has tried to return to pre-sanction levels of output and exports, and used this bargaining chip to obtain an OPEC exemption from cuts.

According to OPEC data, Iran has largely stuck to its commitment for production in the three months to March, exceeding slightly its output in February and pumping below its quota in January and March.

According to an S&P Global Platts survey, Iran produced 3.77 million bpd of crude oil in April.

Nonetheless, Iran is looking beyond the OPEC deal, and has said that it wants to increase its production to 5 million bpd by 2021. Related:Tech Breakthroughs May Save Deepwater Oil

Iran needs a lot of foreign investments to achieve much higher production, but international oil companies continue to be cautious in signing deals with Iran and committing to investments in its oil industry.

According to Manouchehri, as reported by Shana, the NIOC has signed 24 memoranda of understanding (MoU) with domestic and international companies since January 2016.

The Iranian oil company is also considering signing US$80 billion worth of deals with domestic and international contractors over the next two years, Manouchehri said.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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Iran Plans To Raise Crude Oil Production Capacity By 3 Million Bpd - OilPrice.com

America, Turkey and Iran Could Be Headed Toward a Showdown – The National Interest Online

Interests of Washington, Ankara and Tehran are on trajectories suggesting accelerating clashes within and among the three states. President Trump made a congratulatory call to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoan after a controversial vote on a referendum then invited him to the White House, prompting a plethora of bipartisan criticism; also, Tehrans agents assassinated an Iranian businessman in AnkaraSaeed Karimian, founder of Gem TV, who had previously been tried in absentia by an Iranian court.

Its no surprise Ankara is playing down the possibility of an Iranian hit team operating on Turkish soil. Hinting it was an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) team would anger some politicians in Tehran, and what is left of the Turkish opposition media will note Erdogans sacking of thousands of police and security forces has left Turkey vulnerable to terrorist attacks. With the IRGC in a spat with one of the approved candidates (First Vice President Eshagh Jahangiri) in the Iranian elections this month, now is not the time the IRGC needs negative publicity about being involved in an assassination abroad.

With this breaking news in mind, consider how Washington, Ankara and Tehran are on trajectories suggesting accelerating clashes.

On April 25, 2017, Turkish planes carried out airstrikes against suspected Kurdish rebel positions in northern Iraq and in northeastern Syria, killing elements of the Syrian Kurds militia, known as the Peoples Protection Units, or YPG, and, with errant fire, elements of the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Governments peshmerga. The Turkish military said its goal was to prevent Kurds from smuggling fighters and weapons into Turkey. Ankara accuses members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) of conducting terrorist attacks in Turkey from neighboring Iraq and Syria. It considers the YPG an affiliate of the PKK. Washington expressed concerns that this action was not properly coordinated, potentially imperiling U.S. military personnel in Syria fighting alongside Syrian anti-Islamic State forces.

Washington agrees the PKK is a terrorist organization, but disputes the conclusion that YPG is a group that all parties to the Syrian conflict concur is a terrorist organization in word and deed, in part due to its membership in the American-led international coalition against the Islamic State. The Islamic State seized large parts of Syria and Iraq in 2014. Since then, the coalition has made significant gains against the terror group. Coalition forces have been relying on the ground forces of the American-backed and YPG-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and are closing in on the de facto capital of the Islamic State, the city of Raqqa, Syria.

Collision of American, Iranian and Turkish Interests

Iran and Turkey share with the United States opposition to the Islamic State and to increased Kurdish autonomyan independent Kurdish state is, for Tehran and Ankara, unimaginable. Still, they approach each other warily in cooperation against Islamic State and Kurdish rebelsmore frenemies than partners. This situation is partially due to widely different relations of the state to religion in each country: in Turkey, the elected president dominates religious leaders; in Iran, the Ayatollahs dominate the political leaders. Washingtons approach to how Iran and Turkey conduct their respective military operations in Iraq and Syria needs to reflect the joint and competing interests of the two coalitions in northern Iraq and in northeastern Syria.

An example of the accelerating clash of American and Iranian interests in Iraq is praise Iraqi president Fuad Masum gave to Iran. Per MEMRI on March 28, 2017, Masoum hailed Iran for the effectual supports [sic] it has provided for the Arab country in the fight against terrorism [and stressed] that . . . Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Gen. Qasem Soleimani is in Iraq as part of Baghdads plan to get help from foreign-military advisors. Then, on February 7, 2017, to counter Iran, the Trump administration is considering designating the entire IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, rather than only individuals or units, some of which are currently designated, according to Reuters.

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America, Turkey and Iran Could Be Headed Toward a Showdown - The National Interest Online

OPINION: The art of unmaking the Iran deal – Daily Record

James S. Robbins 12:04 a.m. ET May 7, 2017

Handout via epaIranian President Hassan Rouhani, right, in Tehran on April 9. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, right, in Tehran on April 9, 2017.(Photo: HO HANDOUT / Handout via epa)

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said last month that Iran is complying with the terms of the 2015 nuclear agreement. The positive finding of the State Departments routine periodic review of the nuclear agreement, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was surprising given President Trumps assessment that it was the worst deal ever negotiated. Some analysts believed Tillerson was signaling that the Trump administration would let the agreement stand rather than rip it up as the president had promised.

But there is something deeper going on. The key language in Tillersons statement dealt with the National Security Councils inter-agency review to determine whether continued suspension of the sanctions is vital to the national security interests of the United States. This phrasing points to the key weakness in the structure of the deal.

Barack Obama was eager to sign a comprehensive agreement with Iran, but was unwilling or unable to assemble the type of domestic political coalition needed to sign a formal treaty, or to have Congress rescind the sanctions laws, which are still on the books. Instead, U.S. negotiators cobbled together a deal based on exploiting loopholes that allowed the president to waive various aspects of the sanctions laws when it is in the national interest of the United States to do so. For Obama the answer was, yes it is. The Trump team says, not so fast.

Much has happened since the Iran agreement was implemented that raise questions about whether its costs outweigh its benefits. The deal gave Iran access to around $100 billion in frozen assets around the world. Questions the NSC can examine include: how much money has Iran received? How much has been used to support Irans global terrorist network? How much has underwritten Irans intervention in Syria civil war? How much has gone to Irans controversial and potentially illegal missile program, which incidentally is not covered by the agreement? And is Iran in fact complying with the deal, or is it cheating?

In addition, previously secret aspects of the deal have begun to be revealed, such as the Obama administration freeing Iranian prisoners accused of major crimes related to the nuclear and missile programs. These shady aspects of the bargain make it easier for the Trump administration to make the political case against it, which Americans opposed by wide margins to begin with.

If the National Security Council determines that Irans activities are not in U.S. national security interests, the president can lift the sanctions waivers. This puts Iran in a bind. Tehran has threatened it could restart its nuclear program in a new manner that would shock Washington. But if Iran chooses openly to violate the terms of the deal, this would activate the agreements Article 37 snap back mechanism which restores all the pre-JCPOA international sanctions. The only way the snap back would not happen is if the UN Security Council votes otherwise, but the United States could veto any resolution that keeps the deal alive.

This puts Iran in a lose/lose position: accept renewed and potentially tougher U.S. sanctions while staying within the framework of the JCPOA; or breach the deal and suffer the snap back consequences. Of course, Iran could just attempt to go full-bore to develop nuclear-armed missiles as quickly as possible and hope for the best. But the developing crisis with North Korea should be instructive to Tehran. The Trump administration is less willing than its predecessors to accommodate or ignore the nuclear ambitions of rogue states.

Welcome to the art of unmaking the deal. OK Iran, your move.

James S. Robbins, a member of USA TODAYs Board of Contributors, has taught at the National Defense University and the Marine Corps University and served as a special assistant to the secretary of defense in the George W. Bush administration. He is author of This Time We Win: Revisiting the Tet Offensive.

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OPINION: The art of unmaking the Iran deal - Daily Record

Iran’s presidential candidates spar over nuclear deal yield – Fox News

TEHRAN, Iran A hard-line candidate challenged Iranian President Hassan Rouhani over the nuclear deal with world powers during a televised debate Friday, while the incumbent accused hard-liners of attempting to derail the accord.

The second of three debates before Iran's May 19 presidential election saw Rouhani accuse elements within Iran's Revolutionary Guard of trying to derail the deal with a missile launch.

Rouhani remains the favorite in the election as every Iranian president since Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself took the presidency in 1981 has won re-election.

However, hard-liners hope Ebrahim Raisi, appointed in 2016 by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as head of Imam Reza charity foundation, which owns a huge business conglomerate and endowments across the country, can unseat Rouhani.

Raisi said the nuclear deal had not resulted in tangible benefits for ordinary Iranians. "Dear people! Our question is whether the wheels of economy are turning. Businessmen: are you able to do business?" he said.

For his part, Rouhani referred to a March 2016 ballistic missile launch by the paramilitary Guard in which the missile was marked with Hebrew graffiti reading "Israel must be wiped out." He said the act was intended to disrupt the deal.

Rouhani also said his rivals were hoping U.S. President Donald Trump would tear up the agreement.

"When Trump took office you all celebrated saying he would tear up the deal," he said.

Iran signed the 2015 nuclear deal with the U.S. and other world powers, which saw Iran accept curbs on its nuclear program in exchange for relief from crippling international sanctions.

Trump's administration appears to have taken an aggressive stance on Iran, disparaging the landmark deal and accusing Iran of fomenting violence and terrorism throughout the Middle East, charges that Iran denies.

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Iran's presidential candidates spar over nuclear deal yield - Fox News

Iran says $55 oil price suitable, sees supply cut extension – Reuters

DUBAI Iran sees $55 per barrel as a suitable price for crude oil, and believes that OPEC and non-OPEC producers are likely to extend output curbs to support prices, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh was quoted as saying on Saturday.

"The price range of $55 per barrel would be suitable for oil," Zanganeh said, according to the oil ministry's news website SHANA.

Oil prices closed higher on Friday, rebounding from five-month lows, following positive U.S. jobs data and assurances by Saudi Arabia that Russia is ready to join OPEC in extending supply cuts to reduce a persistent glut.

Brent futures gained 72 cents, or 1.5 percent, to settle at $49.10 a barrel.

Zanganeh said members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have signaled that they are leaning towards extending the supply cuts, SHANA reported.

"I think non-OPEC oil producers will also second (an) extension of the plan," said Zanganeh, speaking on the sidelines of an energy fair in Tehran.

OPEC and non-OPEC ministers are due to meet on May 25.

They appear likely to extend their agreement to limit supplies beyond its June expiry to help clear a glut, three OPEC delegates said on Thursday, downplaying the chance of additional steps such as a bigger cut.

(Reporting by Dubai newsroom; Editing by Keith Weir)

WASHINGTON U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Saturday that threats of retaliatory trade actions from Canadian officials "are inappropriate" and will not influence final U.S. import duty determinations on Canadian softwood lumber.

PALO ALTO San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams on Saturday reiterated his view that the U.S. central bank should begin trimming its massive balance sheet later this year, in part so the Fed has more tools at the ready when the next recession hits.

YOKOHAMA, Japan Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will announce his choice for the next central bank governor soon, giving his administration its biggest chance yet to shape the fast-growing country's economic future, the finance secretary said on Sunday.

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Iran says $55 oil price suitable, sees supply cut extension - Reuters