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The Trump White House is poised to ratchet up existing sanctions against Iran and is weighing a much stricter interpretation of the nuclear agreement between Tehran and major world powers.

The administration is inclined to adopt a more rigorous application of the tools at its disposal, a senior White House official told Foreign Policy, referring to sanctions policy. Among the options under consideration: broadening U.S. sanctions to include much larger chunks of the Iranian economy linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

No final decision has been taken by the president or the cabinet. But officials said some decisions will need to be taken soon. On April 25, Iran and the six governments that negotiated the nuclear deal with Tehran, including the United States, are due to meet in Vienna for a quarterly review of the accord.

How President Donald Trump decides to proceed on sanctions and the nuclear deal more broadly carries high stakes for the United States, Iran, and the wider Middle East. A concerted U.S. effort to squeeze Iran would represent a gamble that Tehrans regional push for power, particularly in Syria and Yemen, could be checked in part by increasing economic pressure.

But the approach could backfire if it causes tensions with the Islamic Republic to spin out of control or prompts Tehran to pull out of the nuclear deal. Tougher U.S. sanctions would make for a tougher re-election fight for President Hassan Rouhani, a relative moderate who championed the 2015 nuclear deal but is under pressure to show Iranians a notable improvement in the economy. And a harder line on sanctions also could drive a wedge between Washington and its European allies.

Sweeping sanctions that cut across economic sectors could jeopardize the nuclear agreement and prompt Iran to withdraw, said Richard Nephew, who was the leading sanctions expert on the U.S. team that negotiated the accord with Iran.

It all really comes down to whether the people making decisions agree that the [nuclear deal] is worth keeping, said Nephew, now at Columbia Universitys School of International and Public Affairs.

The 2015 agreement imposed numerous restrictions on Irans nuclear program in return for easing an array of sanctions including U.S. measures that had badly damaged the countrys economy. President Trump repeatedly blasted the accord as the worst deal and, while on the campaign trail, vowed to tear it up, but now that he is in office, he has not indicated what he will do.

Trump doesnt have to tear up the deal to tighten the screws on Iran. The agreement, which is not a treaty, provides broad leeway to the governments that signed it in interpreting its terms, and the Trump White House is mulling taking a much more forceful stance on enforcing the deal to the letter.

There are already signs that the Trump administration is using existing legal authorities in a more forceful manner than the Barack Obama administration. Last Thursday, the Treasury Department announced it had sanctioned the brother of the powerful head of the special forces arm of the IRGC, Sohrab Soleimani, for his role in abuses at the countrys prisons. And in February, the Treasury Department blacklisted eight organizations linked to the Revolutionary Guards, as well as one of its officials based in Lebanon.

Last weeks move was a further indication that the Trump administration will be taking a much tougher line in applying sanctions than did its predecessor, said Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who has urged ramping up economic pressure on Iran.

Dubowitz, an influential voice on sanctions policy particularly among Republican lawmakers in Congress, said he also expects the Trump administration to pursue more prosecutions of illicit financial activities linked to the Iranian regime and of attempts to secure prohibited materials related to weapons or nuclear technology.

The sanctions measures imposed since Trump entered office were based on cases prepared by the Obama Treasury Department that were never enacted, said the White House official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the administrations policy.

We are still going off the work they did not execute, the official said.

And Treasurys recent actions reflect a heightened focus by the administration on the Revolutionary Guards, which wield major military and financial clout in Iran and have interests in numerous Iranian companies. The Treasury actions coincide with a debate within the administration about whether to designate the entire IRGC as a terrorist organization. At the moment, only the groups special forces arm, the Quds Force, is blacklisted.

Apart from designating the entire Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization, the administration is also looking at other options. At the moment, any entity that has a 50 percent ownership stake or more held by the IRGC is subject to sanctions, but the administration is mulling a change that would drop the threshold to a lower percentage.

Such a move would break with long-standing policy at Treasury, which has traditionally defined ownership as above 50 percent for any category of sanctions. A lower threshold would mean blacklisting hundreds and possibly thousands of additional Iranian companies and organizations with links to the IRGC, experts said. That would almost certainly cause a political backlash in Iran and chill any international interest in investing in Iran. European officials and former Obama administration officials are worried that if the White House opts for a blanket blacklisting of the Revolutionary Guards, it could effectively kill the nuclear agreement or trigger retaliation against U.S.-led forces in Iraq.

Appetite for a tougher stance isnt just found in the White House. In the Republican-controlled Congress, there is growing bipartisan support for pushing back against Iran through additional sanctions, though most Democrats want to steer clear of measures that would directly violate the nuclear deal. New bills in the House and Senate call for additional sanctions against Iran over its ballistic missile program and its human rights violations and support for terrorist groups.

The Senate bill, which has backing from some Democrats who endorsed the nuclear deal, would slap sanctions on any individual lending material support to Irans missile program. And it would also apply terrorism-related sanctions to the Revolutionary Guards.

The bills supporters say the provisions on the IRGC would merely codify existing presidential executive orders. But some former Obama administration officials argue the legislation could open the door to a sweeping designation of the entire IRGC as a terrorist organization.

The former officials say the sanctions legislation poses a possible threat to the nuclear deal as the measures could wreck the consensus among the countries that negotiated the deal.

Rather than containing Iran, such steps would isolate the United States, several former administration officials wrote in a commentary in FP.

Critics of the deal accused the Obama administration of tolerating Iranian violations of the accord. International inspectors found that Iran last year had twice exceeded limits on stockpiles of heavy water, which is used to cool reactors producing plutonium. Washington chose to resolve the issue discreetly, granting Iran some time to fix the problem. Opponents of the accord are urging the White House to insist on a more assertive interpretation of the deals provisions and appear to have found a receptive audience.

Administration officials said they are now looking at holding Irans feet to the fire over every breach, however small. One option under consideration is an incredibly strict implementation of the deal, the senior official said.

But the official added that the administration was not inconsiderate of the ramifications of the deal and was carefully weighing the benefits and the risks of a different approach.

The Obama administration, facing complaints from Iran that it was not seeing the promised economic benefits from the accord, had embarked on road shows to reassure European governments and foreign companies that non-U.S. investors could return to the Iranian market without necessarily running afoul of U.S. sanctions. Rouhani is facing an electoral challenge from a hard-line favorite of the mullahs and needs to sell the deal as a success to win re-election next month.

But the road shows convinced few: Banks in particular are leery of diving back into the Iranian market when U.S. sanctions could suddenly snap back or be expanded to other parts of the economy.

Its not surprising to me that financial institutions all over the world are hesitant to re-engage with Iran, said Daniel Glaser, a former senior Treasury official under the Obama administration who crafted hard-hitting sanctions that preceded the nuclear agreement.

Since Trump took office, the outreach effort has been abandoned.

Photo credit:CHAVOSH HOMAVANDI/AFP/Getty Images

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Trump Mulls Squeezing Iran With Tougher Sanctions | Foreign Policy - Foreign Policy (blog)

In Iran, candidates have begun to register for the Iranian presidential election scheduled for May 19 ina vote that will once again position the countrys reformists against its conservative elite.

Last year, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, former president and one of the countrys most prominent populists, began giving off signals that he was preparing a third run at the leadership.

Read more:Here are five of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's weirdest conspiracy theories

Despite being encouraged not to run by Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in September 2016, Ahmadinejad registered his name in what seemed a direct challenge to the countrys highest religious figure.President Hassan Rouhani, like Ahmadinejad, dreams of another term. But in the run up to the vote, a candidate has emerged who experts say could render Rouhani a one-term president: 56-year-old former prosecutor-general and hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi.

Raisi is custodian of the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, Irans second-biggest city, and presides over a billion-dollar religious fund known as the Astan-e Qods Razavi. He is a close ally of Khamenei, who appointed him as head of the foundation last year. Many Iranians speculatethat Raisi is Khameneis choice to stand against Rouhani, although Irans top cleric has not yetsaid who he is supporting.

Raisis role presiding over the shrine, visited by 30 million religious pilgrims every year, will likely improve his standing with Iranians who may not immediately recognize himespecially when up against Rouhani, who has led the country for the past four years.

Irans conservative elite has not yet agreed upona single candidate it can back against Rouhani. But while a lot can change before election season officially begins on April 28, many see Raisi as the man with themost potential to pose a serious challenge to Rouhani. Before Ahmadinejads announcement, Raisi was the frontrunner among five hardline candidates.

It's possiblethat the conservative right will select whoever they consider the strongest challenger to Rouhani, with others stepping aside to allow a one-on-one battle for the presidency. In 2013, several conservative candidates ran against each other, splitting the vote and allowing Rouhani to win. If that happensagain, it could thwart the conservative camps electoral chances once more.

Iranian senior cleric Ebrahim Raisi speaks in the holy city of Mashhad, Iran, in this handout photo believed to be taken in February 2016. Raisi on Sunday announced his candidacy for the Iranian presidential election on May 19. Tasnim News Agency/Handout via Reuters

With close connections to the Ayatollah and the Iranian intelligence services, Raisi has always been considered a potential successor to Khamenei, who is now 77, rather than as president. As a result, many are surprised by his decision to risk a presidential run.

If Raisi is such a strong contender for the Supreme Leadership, its slightly puzzling as to why he is throwing his hat into the rather unpredictable presidential race.If there is a serious weakening of the right-wing vote by having more than one candidate, he could fall a victim, says Sir Richard Dalton, former British ambassador to Iran.

On the other hand, victory could boost his chances of succeeding Khamenei.

While little is known about Raisi personallybar a generalhatred toward the Westhis intentions in the elections have become clearer. In his bid for the presidency, Raisi has tried to paint himself as a man of the people, highlighting the economy and corruption as key focuses in the early stages of his campaign.

Read more: After nuclear deal, Iran could receive first Boeing jet a year earlier than expected

The landmark nuclear agreement signed between Tehran and world powers in July 2015, on the back of Rouhanis promises to boost the economy, should have ensured he coasted to a second stint as the countrys leader.

But Iranian citizens say they have not reapedthe economic benefits the leadership touted as the main justification for the deal. While Iran has struck deals with foreign companies since the agreement, most are not really underwayand even though the economy is performing better under Rouhani, Iranians do not see the country reaching its fullpotential.

Whilst the Rouhani camp will try to present a positive picture of the trickle-down effects of the nuclear deal for the Iranian economy, the opposite front will likely criticize the deal as unable to provide the economic recovery portrayed by the administration and present an alternative based on a populist economic policy, says Tabrizi.

Raisi has targeted corruption in the country, and said that he would not use his position as the head of a wealthy foundation, or its finances, to help his election campaign.

Experts say a Raisi victory could increase already simmering tensions between the Islamic Republic and the West, particularly with the U.S.under President Donald Trump, who has voiced his opposition to the Iranian regime and the nuclear deal and cut off all diplomatic contacts with the country after Barack Obamas thaw in relationswith the country.

But if the Trump administration does an about-turn in the future and seeks cooperationwith Tehran on some level, Raisi would present a bigger challenge than the current leader.

It will be harder to reestablish diplomatic links under Raisi than it would under Rouhani, says Dalton. So crisis management would be more problematic under Raisi.

Rights groups have criticized Rouhani for a lack of reform on political and social freedoms, a promise he made when he rode to power on the back of votes from young Iranians. But if Raisi is elected, the situation for more liberal-minded Iranians is not optimistic, Dalton concedes. You could certainly kiss goodbye to any relaxation."

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In Iran, Hardline Cleric Ebrahim Raisi Emerges to Challenge Hassan Rouhani - Newsweek

New photos emerged Saturday of a new prototype of Iran's stealth fighter jet, previous models of which were mocked by aviation experts who predicted it "would never fly."

The updated version of Qahar F-313 stealth fighter jetwas unveiled during an exhibition for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, The Aviationist editor David Cenciotti reported. The exhibition showcased the achievements made by Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehghan within the last two years.

The prototype had the same shape as its 2013 predecessor but featured multiple changes, including a bigger cockpit, non-plexiglass canopy, dual exhaust nozzles, dorsal antenna and FLIR (Forward Looking Infra-Red) turret installed to the nose of the fighter jet.

The F-313 was first unveiled in February 2013, though it was criticized for being too small. The cockpit couldn't accommodate a "normal-sized" pilot and the wings weren't big enough to get it up in the air, according to The Aviationist.

The original version also had a slew of technical errors. The engine was not properly built, putting the back of the aircraft at risk of melting from heat. The craft's air intakes seemed too small, the blog said.

Ahmad Vahidi, Iran's defense minister at the time, said Iranian aerospace experts designed the jet to fly at a low altitude, carry weapons and land on short runways, according to DailyMail.com.

Iranian news site Khouz News did publish photos of F-313 appearing to fly over mountains in 2013, but was accused of photoshopping the image, DailyMail.com reported.

It's still unclear if the new prototype would be able to fly. The jet conducted taxi tests on Saturday during the exhibition.

Recent statements released said that the F-313 fighter jet will be "a light close air support aircraft," The Aviationist reported.

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Photos of Iran's new Qahar F-313 fighter jet prototype emerges - Fox News

In the nineteen-eighties, when I was a child, my family rarely took vacations. There had been a revolution in Iran, and there was a war on. Most of our trips were to the gardens of family and friends; a couple of times we went to Shomal, as the green band of forests south of the Caspian Sea is known. In those days, travelling was all about us pleasing the group.

We once rented a house by the sea. Everybody had tasks. The women cooked. I was told to keep the frogs and cats away from my paranoid aunt. In the afternoon, when my uncle went jogging, I had to run behind him, carrying a boom box playing Eye of the Tiger. He had just returned from the front, and he loved Rocky.

That was a rare memory. At home and on trips, we often spent our time hiding from others. We gathered behind walls and inside houses to avoid the sternness of the Islamic Revolution. Public space was no fun: there was always someone disturbing your privacy, making you feel uncomfortable.

Now I look at the youth of today, who are hitchhiking their way through the country, discovering its islands, mountain passes, and changing-color deserts. It took more than three decades for Iranians to venture out once again; now they cant seem to get enough of it.

Newsha Tavakolian

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Vacation in Iran - The New Yorker

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qasem Soleimani walks near an armored vehicle at the front line of operations against Islamic State militants in the town of Tal Ksaiba in Iraq's Salahuddin province, March 8, 2015.(photo byREUTERS/Stringer)

Author:Fazel Hawramy Posted April 17, 2017

Today Iran stands at the forefront of the battle and confrontation with the project of the Islamic caliphate, in a way that it funds more than 90 armed militia groups in Islamic cities, the narrator proclaimed in a newly released Islamic State (IS) video in which Shiite-majority Iran is portrayed as the source of division in the Muslim world.

In the 37-minute clip published in late March, titled Persian Land, From Yesterday to Today, Iranian IS members list what they see as crimes against Sunnis committed by the Islamic Republic and call on their brethren to take up arms against Tehran, saying, Our war has started against the Persians. I call in particular on the Sunnis in Iran to prepare for this war and we are behind you.

Despite Irans important role in degrading IS, the terrorist group has not been able to carry out any attacks inside the Islamic Republic, unlike much of the rest of the Middle East, Europe and the United States. Since its establishment in 1979, the Islamic Republic has been under constant domestic and foreign threats. As a result, it has developed a sophisticated intelligence and surveillance network that has effectively dealt with internal threats. In terms of external threats, Iran prefers to fight them in neighboring countries and has in those endeavors managed to prop up and support various proxies including Shiite, Sunni and secular groups across the region. Perhaps the most potent aspect of this strategy to deal with external threats has been the streamlining of the Iranian decision-making process.

US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Brett McGurk, who was pushing the White House for a military response to IS advances in Iraq in the summer of 2014, must have envied Qasem Soleimani, the powerful commander of Irans Quds Force, who was on the front line in Jalawla in Diyala province deploying Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) advisers and heavy artillery to stop IS at that time. I was advocating as aggressive a response as possible, just given how dire the situation was. So those who were responding that this needs a political solution, I just thought they were completely out of their minds, McGurk recalled in a PBS documentary.

Soleimani, who has battled IS and other groups since 2012, knew the dangers that IS posed to Iran and presented the Islamic Republics strategy in dealing with the threat, Daesh [IS] is a plague and a grave catastrophe in the world, said the Iranian commander. To safeguard the security of our nation, we need to quarantine our borders and aid our neighbors so this cancer does not spread to our country.

Iranian officials are quick to point out that this strategy has been successful and that IS has not succeeded in carrying out attacks inside their country. Due to the vigilance of the security forces and the people, Daesh [IS] has not been able to even set off a firecracker for propaganda [purposes], IRGC public relations chief Ramazan Sharif said last year.

But the cancer that Soleimani referred to may have already spread to Iran and Tehran might come to regret one pillar of its strategy in dealing with external threats in the region.

From 2001, when the US-led invasion forced the jihadis of al-Qaeda out of Afghanistan, and until late 2011, when US forces left Iraq, Iran reportedly turned a blind eye to jihadis transiting its territory in order to bleed the United States and coalition forces in both countries. Salafijihadis from eastern Iran, near the Afghan border, are said to have traveled freely across Irans Sunni heartland. Toleration of jihadis so long as Tehran was not at the receiving end of their violence is reported to have created a mass following for these groups in Irans Sunni areas.

For instance, the number of young Kurds adopting Salafijihadi ideology has greatly increased in western Iran since 2001. Many Iranian Sunnis have traveled through Turkey to join IS and other jihadi groups in Iraq and Syria, often facing IRGC commanders aiding Iraqi and Syrian forces on the front lines.

Some IS supporters in Irans Kurdish areas even celebrated IS gains in the summer of 2014, as the group swooped across northern Iraq, according to Kurdish media. In the latest IS video, which is labeled as originating from the IS wilayah (province) of Diyala in Iraq, four members of the Popular Mobilization Units are seen kneeling down. They are then beheaded by four IS militants, two of whom are apparently Iranian Kurds.

Secular Kurdish activists inside Iran often complain about how parts of Iranian Kurdistan havebeen turned into battlegroundswhere supporters of IS and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (previously known as Jabhat al-Nusra) settle scores in the streets. Indeed, there have been reports in the Iranian media about a number of clashes between elements that espouse IS ideology and the security forces in Kurdish areas.

As Salafijihadis become degraded and lose their territory in Iraq and Syria, some of the Iranian Sunnis who have honed their military and intelligence skills over the years will inevitably survive the battlefield and pose a threat to the Iranian state.

Tawhid Qoureishi, an Iranian Sunni religious scholar, traveled to northern Syria via Turkey to join IS along with two other Iranians in the fall of 2013. Prior to that, he engaged in religious studies near the Afghan border and then became a preacher in a Sunni village in the northern Iranian province of Gilan. Qoureishi, who was 30 when he joined IS, stayed with the group for over six months, roaming around northern Syria and meeting many high-ranking IS members. However, he later came to question some of the brutal methods IS deployed, which created division among Salafijihadis. He participated in the first battles between IS and Jabhat al-Nusra, but soon afterward, he became disillusioned with the group and returned to Iran in the spring of 2014, where he was arrested upon arrival. The main reason [I left IS] was the crimes that were committed there [in Syria], such askilling people. I went there to defend people and confront oppression, Qoureishi said from an Iranian prison when asked why a young man from a village in northern Iran would go to Syria to join IS.

He is now serving a seven-year prison term in Iran.

While most Iranian Sunnis reject the ideology promulgated by IS and other Salafijihadi groups,some of the government policies deemed oppressive appear to push more young Sunnis into the arms of jihadi groups, which are quick to exploit such situations. "Iranian Jews live in security under the protection of the government and have synagogues in Tehran and Esfahan, said the narrator in the IS video from March, comparing the status of the over 1 million Sunnis in Tehran with that of the Iranian Jews who are mostly concentrated in the capital. There is not a single mosque for the Sunni people in Tehran, disputing the Iranian authorities assertion that there are nine Sunnimosques in the capital.

This [jihadi] thought is spreading day by day. I think they must have grown by a hundredfold since the Taliban era," warned Qoureishi in the prison interview, adding, "I dont think it is possible to contain these movements.

Read More: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/04/iran-islamic-state-kurdistan-recruitment-jihadism-at-home.html

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How Iran's military strategy against IS may backfire - Al-Monitor