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AFTER THREE years of ruthless hardline government under Ebrahim Raisi, Irans 61m voters once again have a choice for president. On June 9th, ahead of Irans snap presidential election scheduled for June 28th, the Guardian Council, the Islamic Republics electoral-vetting body, approved six candidates: three hardliners, two pragmatic conservatives and a reformer. Given that the first five are likely to split the traditionalist vote, a good turnout might even propel a reformist back into the presidency. The helicopter crash that killed Raisi on May 19th may also have ended his puritanical purge of the administration. It could re-energise Iranian politics, says a political observer in the capital, Tehran.

The front-runner remains Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. As a former military commander and police chief, as well as the pragmatic conservative speaker of parliament and a relative of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he has the credentials of a regime stalwart. If the other four conservatives drop out of the race and lend him their backing (as often happens in Iranian elections), he should be a shoo-in. That said, as a previous three-time presidential contender, he also has a record as a loser. Critics on the right as well as the left berate him for corruption and hypocrisy, though he denies their accusations. Although Mr Qaliba condemns the West, his son declared he had $150,000 available to fast-track his application for Canadian citizenship.

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Who are the main contenders to be Iran's next president? - The Economist

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (right) expressed support for the soonest possible resumption of the full implementation of the Iran nuclear deal after meeting with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (left) in Moscow on March 15, 2022. Credit: Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted last week to censure Iran for failing to cooperate fully in the inspection regime set up under the 2015 nuclear deal to make Irans program more transparent and to set limits that would prevent redirection of nuclear material to make weapons. But the deal has failed for many reasons, not just Irans interference with IAEA inspectors.

Censure resolutions by the IAEA board are not legally binding but send a strong political and diplomatic message. The representative of Irans mission to the United Nations stated, The decision of the Western countries was hasty and unwise, and it will undoubtedly have a detrimental impact on the process of diplomatic engagement and constructive cooperation. Today, Iran may be only weeks away from having material for several nuclear weapons. The new President and cabinet of Iran will be determined within the next two months.

The United States and Europe should try to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Irans new administration.

At the IAEA board meeting, China, Iran, and Russia issued a joint statement blaming the US for its unlawful and unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (official known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) and the imposition of unilateral and illegal sanctions against Iran. The three countries wrote that [s]hould the full implementation of the JCPOA be in place today, it would have alleviated the overwhelming majority of existing questions regarding Irans peaceful nuclear program on a mutually accepted basis. The IAEA Secretariat too would have had broader verification and monitoring means.

The three countries confirmed their readiness to restore the agreement based on the text of a draft agreement initially circulated in August 2022 by European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and blamed the United States and the European signatories to the 2015 deal for blocking the draft for the sake of their own political considerations.

The nuclear crisis with Iran began in 2003 when the world became aware that Iran was building a uranium enrichment plant. But the divergence between Iran and the West on nuclear issues started after the 1979 revolution in Iran. Now, 45 years later, a last chance is still open for a positive resolution.

During the reign of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran was a regional ally of the United States, which supported the Shahs interest in acquiring nuclear technology. After the 1979 revolution and that deposed the Shah and an ensuing crisis, in which US diplomats were held hostage for 444 days, however, the United States saw Iran as a threat and led the West in a ban on nuclear technology exports to Iran, a move that resulted in the cancelation of all Western nuclear agreements with Iran.

This strategy led Iran to move towards self-sufficiency in nuclear technology. After Iran acquired enrichment technology, Americas policy shifted from zero nuclear technology to zero uranium enrichment, accepting Irans right to access peaceful nuclear technology excluding enrichment and plutonium separation.

From 2003 to 2013, negotiations between Iran and global powers regarding Irans enrichment program ended in failure. Then the Obama Administration shifted U.S. policy from zero enrichment to zero nuclear weapons, leading to the conclusion of the JCPOA in 2015 between Iran and five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany. The agreement was approved by UN Security Council Resolution 2231.

The JCPOA was the most comprehensive nonproliferation agreement in history, with Iran accepting and adhering to the highest level of nuclear transparency and inspections and accepting limitations in its nuclear program that went well beyond the Non-Proliferation Treatys requirements

In May 2018, however, even though the IAEA had certified that Iran was in compliance with all its commitments, President Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement, restored US sanctions on Iran, and added 1,500 new ones. Europe decided to comply with US sanctions. China saw an opportunity, however, and took over the economic relationships with Iran that the West had abandoned.

After President Biden took office in 2021, he and the European Union tried to revive the JCPOA, but ultimately they imposed hundreds of new sanctions. This led Iran to impose its own form of pressure by expanding it enrichment activities to include enriching uranium to 60 percent uranium 235a level that is near weapon-grade. The result of the standoff are dangerous: Although the JCPOA had kept Iran at least a year away from producing enough weapon-grade for a first nuclear weapon, Tehran is now estimated to be just two weeks away from producing that amount of fissile material, effectively becoming a nuclear threshold state like Japan.

Western nuclear sanctions over the past 45 years have caused hundreds of billions, perhaps trillions, of dollars in damage to Irans economy. Meanwhile, the West has not achieved its primary goalpreventing Iran from attaining the capability to make a nuclear weapon quickly. The continuing pressure game in regard to Irans nuclear program has been a lose-lose strategy for both Iran and the West. The reality: The West is unwilling to compensate for Irans economic losses. Iran will not relinquish the leverage its nuclear latency provides for free.

According to Resolution 2231, the UN Security Council will close Irans nuclear case by October 2025. Before that time, Europe could utilize the snapback mechanism to reimpose all UN Security Council resolutions against Iran. Irans most likely response, however, would be a complete withdrawal from the JCPOA and suspension of its membership in the Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear-weapon state. If, in such a situation, Israel and/or the United States were to attack Irans nuclear facilities, Iran could respond with nuclear weaponization. The standoff between Iran and the global powers would come to resemble the situation with North Korea.

The United States and the EU therefore have a 15-month window to choose between two options: Iran as a nuclear-armed state like North Korea, or Iran as a nuclear threshold state ala Japan.

The JCPOA has two sets of pillars. One is Irans permanent commitments to accepting IAEA comprehensive inspection and transparency measures, including the Additional Protocol, which allows the IAEA to inspect any suspect facility. The second set of pillars are sunset limitationsincluding prohibitions against Iran enriching uranium to above five percent uranium 235that will mostly expire in 2030.

The global powers still have an opportunity to engage Iran in a New Nuclear Deal: lifting nuclear sanctions in exchange for Irans full and permanent commitment to implementing comprehensive transparency measures in the JCPOA, which would grant the agency full visibility into Irans nuclear activities. It is the best option for staving off the Iranian Bomb.

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The West has a 15-month opportunity for a new nuclear deal with Iran that precludes an Iranian Bomb - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

A mural celebrating the Iranian Woman. Life. Freedom revolution was revealed in Tel Aviv earlier this week.

The creator of this mural, alongside 13 other ones scattered across Israel from Nazareth to Jerusalem to Tel Aviv and Netanya, is Hooman Khalili, 49, a Teheran born filmmaker and radio DJ residing in the US. The Jerusalem Post reached out to Khalili to hear more about the mural and the initiative.

Elam is the ancient name of Iran, explained Khalili. Over and over in the Bible, God says he will place His throne in Jerusalem, or Zion, or Israel. The one time He says He will place it in Elam he also says He will destroy its kings and officials. This is a fulfillment of the verse, he added excitedly.

Khalilis goal is to reach 18 murals across Israel. In his artistic work, which has taken him roughly a year and a half, Khalili is usually responsible for the design, while local Israeli artists are hired for the execution.

Some murals are spray painted while others are printed, and most carry the same theme of women-led inspiration and revolution; and as Khalili elaborated: My aim is to inspire the women of Iran to keep fighting. This is the first women-led revolution in the world!

Khalili said that he also wishes to draw the attention of Iranians to Israel. I want to show the world that Israel and the Jewish people are standing with the freedom-fighting women in Iran. There are no such murals anywhere in the Middle East outside of Israel, not Afghanistan, not Qatar, not Iraq, not Lebanon only in Israel, he explained.

These murals remind the world that the Persians have been the friends of the Jews for 3,000 years. Weve only been enemies for less than 50 years. You see on social media slogans like all eyes on Rafah, but this is a mistake: all eyes should be on Iran.

This specific mural is a celebration of Iranian women for their inspiration. Esthers of the world rise up! he concluded.

Khalilis murals can be viewed on his website, https://www.hooman.tv/, as well as his social media platforms on Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, YouTube, X, and others.

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Artist reveals mural celebrating Iran's women, life, freedom movement - Israel News - The Jerusalem Post

Six candidates, including the speaker of Parliament, have been approved to run in the Iranian election this month to succeed President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month. The vote comes at a moment when the country faces acute domestic and international challenges, state media said on Sunday.

The speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, and five other men were approved by the Guardian Council, a 12-person body that vets candidates, for the balloting on June 28, according to the state news agency IRNA, which cited Mohsen Eslami, spokesman for the countrys election headquarters.

Mr. Ghalibaf, a retired pilot and former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, has run twice unsuccessfully for the countrys presidency and is a former mayor of the capital, Tehran. He became speaker of Parliament in 2020 following a legislative election.

The other candidates include a former interior minister, Mostafa Pourmohammadi; Saeed Jalili, a former chief nuclear negotiator; and the current Tehran mayor, Alireza Zakani.

The countrys next president will be confronted with problems at home and abroad. Deep economic troubles, exacerbated by international sanctions, are fueling discontent among some Iranians who have demanded social and political freedoms as well as prosperity.

The largest recent uprising, led by women, erupted in 2022 after a young woman, Mahsa Amini, died in police custody; she was accused of improperly covering her hair under the countrys hijab laws. Those protests grew to include demands for an end to clerical rule.

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Iran Names Six Candidates for President, Including Parliament Speaker - The New York Times

The Islamic Republic of Iran, situated in West Asia, is the sixth-largest country in Asia and the second-largest in West Asia, covering a land area of approximately 1,648,195 square kilometres. With a total population of 89,705,600, Iran shares extensive borders with various neighbouring countries. To the west, it shares a border stretching over 1,400 kilometres with Iraq, while to the northwest lies Turkey. In the east, Irans border spans over 900 kilometres with Afghanistan, and to the southeast, over 900 kilometres with Pakistan. To the north, Iran shares borders with Azerbaijan, Armenia, the Caspian Sea, and Turkmenistan, while to the south, it is bounded by the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

Irans strategic importance in the region is derived from its economic, geopolitical, and cultural influence, as well as its military strength and regional alliances. This makes Iran a crucial player in the Middle Eastern region.

Irans military doctrine, which combines ideological and technical elements, underscores its commitment to achieving political goals through military means. Iran defense budget for 2022 was 6.85 billion USD, With a total military personnel count of 1,180,000, including 610,000 active military personnel and 350,000 reserves, Iran possesses a formidable force. Its air force, consisting of 42,000 personnel and 551 aircraft, including 205 combat aircraft, 186 fighter aircraft, and 19 multi-role aircraft, further solidifies its military might. Additionally, Irans substantial UAV count, exceeding 2,000, enhances its reconnaissance and strategic capabilities.

The Iranian navy, with 18,500 personnel and a fleet of 101 vessels, including 07 frigates, 19 submarines, and 942 merchant marines, ensures Irans presence and influence in crucial waterways such as the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Despite these considerable military capabilities, Irans power projection remains incomplete, primarily due to the asymmetrical nature of modern warfare.

However, these military capabilities are insufficient for Iran to claim regional power. To compensate, Iran has adopted a strategy of Forward Defense, supporting friendly militias and insurgent groups across the Middle East. The Quds Force, a part of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), trains and equips such proxies to achieve Irans goals.

Hezbollah, the oldest and strongest political non-state actor in Lebanon, boasts approximately 45,000 fighters. In Iraq, the Badr Organization, formed in 1982, has 20,000 fighters.

Irans partnership with Houthi rebels, a Zaidi Shia Muslim minority in Yemen, allows Iran to strike deep into Saudi Arabia, its Sunni rival in the region. The Houthis have posed challenges for the U.S. Navy in the Red Sea and have not supported Israel in the Israel-Palestine conflict.

Through these proxies, Iran gains security benefits, including assistance in countering foreign intelligence threats, intelligence sharing, and counter-terrorism efforts.

Iran supports Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Badr Organization in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen to project its power in the region, deter Israel and the United States, and secure a more than 1000-kilometer-long land corridor connecting Iran to the Mediterranean Sea.

Irans military capabilities were tested when Israeli F-35 jets carried out an airstrike on an Iranian consulate building in Damascus, Syria, resulting in the fatalities of several high-ranking IRGC officials. In retaliation, Iran launched a significant operation against Israeli territory on April 13th and 14th, deploying 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. However, the majority of Iranian missiles and attack drones were intercepted by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), along with British and US forces stationed in the region. Approximately 7 missiles struck the Nevatim airbase in Southern Israel.

Additionally, on January 18, 2024, Pakistan launched an operation called Marg Bar Sarmachar meaning death to insurgents effectively striking hideouts inside Iran used by terrorists responsible for recent attacks in Pakistan. The precision strikes, carried out using killer drones, rockets, loitering munitions, and stand-off weapons, demonstrated the professionalism of Pakistans armed forces and the lack of preparedness of Irans armed forces.

Despite its military ambitions, Irans economy grapples with serious challenges, exacerbated by international sanctions and a struggling currency. With one USD equal to 42,075.00 Iranian Rials, Irans economy faces significant hurdles in achieving sustainable growth and development.

Iran has been labelled as a rogue and irresponsible state by the West, posing a serious threat to world peace. Its nuclear program remains under sanctions by the (P5+1) 5 permanent member of United Nation Security Council (UNSC) which includes US,UK, France ,China, Russia and Germany, in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement.

In conclusion, Iran ranks 14th out of 145 countries in the Global Firepower Index in terms of military strength. However, its conventional power is insufficient and dependent on outdated weapons, making it ineligible for regional power status. Iran is a challenger in the region, challenging Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. To achieve regional power status, and to overcome these challenges Iran needs to focus on economic growth through cross-border trades and investments, heavy investment in research and development, and modernization of its weapons and military equipment. Only by addressing its economic vulnerabilities can Iran hope to achieve its aspirations of regional power and secure its position as a key player in the Middle East.

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Iran's Regional Influence And Military Muscle: Growing Military Capabilities And Role As Regional Power OpEd - Eurasia Review