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Laura Secor: The fish, the stream and the rise of theocratic Iran National Post In the run-up to the awarding of the Lionel Gelber Prize, the National Post presents excerpts from all five nominated books. Today: Laura Secor on the the little-known literary origins of the Iranian Revolution. On a cold winter night, at the bottom of ...

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Laura Secor: The fish, the stream and the rise of theocratic Iran - National Post

WASHINGTON

Iran has held its first conference in six years supporting Palestinian uprisings, a forum that it says drew hundreds of delegates from 80 countries, reflecting the countrys resurgent clout on the world stage.

The two-day Sixth International Conference in Support of the Palestinian Intifada ended Wednesday in the Iranian capital, Tehran, with Irans president pledging more aid for Palestinians fighting against Israel. Tehran has long provided monetary and military assistance to Palestinian militants.

Iranian state media quoted President Hassan Rouhani as saying his people have paid a high cost for supporting the Palestinians and opposing the Zionist regime of Israels actions, but they will continue their support with determination.

State media said Rouhani made the comments while meeting Palestinian National Council chairman Salim al-Zanoun on the forums sidelines. Speaking to conference delegates, Rouhani also called Israel a fake regime that should be replaced by a Palestinian state for Muslims, Christians and Jews.

A day earlier, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei opened the conference by calling Israel a cancerous tumor and urging the Palestinians to wage a thunderous intifada until what he called the complete liberation of Palestine a reference to the historic British-controlled territory of Palestine that pre-dated Israels creation in 1948.

Palestinian intifadahs

Palestinians engaged in two violent revolts, or intifadas, against Israels occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, territories they claim for a state, from 1987 to 1993 and from 2000 to 2005. In recent years, Palestinian militants also have carried out waves of stabbing, vehicular and shooting attacks against Israelis, and have used Gaza as a base for 2014 war with Israel.

Iran honored those revolts by staging this weeks conference just more than one year after receiving relief from international sanctions as part of a nuclear deal with world powers, a deal that took effect in January 2016.

Tehran held its previous pro-Palestinian Intifada conferences in 2011, 2009, 2006, 2001 and 1991. There has been no official Israeli reaction to the latest forum.

Anti-Israel rhetoric

Emanuele Ottolenghi, an Iran analyst at the Washington-based research group Foundation for Defense of Democracies, sees the anti-Israel rhetoric of Khamenei and Rouhani as more of the same.

They were vitriolic in their rhetoric against Israel before and after the nuclear deal (was signed in 2015) under the Obama administration, and now that Donald Trump is U.S. president, Ottolenghi told the VOA Persian Service. This regime remains wedded to the idea that Israel must be destroyed.

But Ottolenghi said the ability of Iran to organize another conference in support of Palestinian militancy after a break of six years is noteworthy.

We know the regime is paying full expenses for people from all over the world to come, using Iranian taxpayer money, he said. Iran is using money it obtained from the economic windfall of the nuclear deal to advance its incendiary rhetoric.

The Central Bank of Iran has said the country posted economic growth of 7.4 percent in March to September 2016 compared with the same period in the previous year. Irans Financial Tribune newspaper said most of the growth came from increased oil exports allowed by the nuclear deal.

Iranian officials listen to speech of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a conference titled "international conference in support of Palestinian Intifada" in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 21, 2017.

Delegates from countries, militant factions

Delegates to this weeks Tehran conference included members of Palestinian militant factions Hamas and Islamic Jihad and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah all designated by the United States as terrorist organizations.

The forum also drew parliamentary delegations from about 20 countries, with at least seven sending their heads of parliament: Algeria, Lebanon, Mali, North Korea, Syria, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. The Iranian government also hosted Islamic scholars from Afghanistan and Pakistan and a group of ultra-orthodox anti-Zionist Jews.

In a VOA Persian interview, terrorism researcher Lee Smith of Washingtons Hudson Institute said Iran feels empowered not just by the nuclear deal but also by the spread of its proxy forces in the region.

The Iranians boast about controlling four Arab governments, in Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and Sanaa, Smith said. That is why they are testing the Trump administration (by holding the conference). President Trumps administration, which took office last month, has vowed to be more supportive of Israel than its predecessor.

Smith said Shiite-majority Iran also is using the Palestinian issue to try to gain a public relations advantage over its regional Sunni Arab rivals who traditionally have supported the predominantly Sunni Palestinians.

Sunni powers like Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia recently have become closer to Israel, some of them more openly than others, because of Iran, Smith said. So the Iranians are holding onto the Palestinian file, saying (to the Arab public) we represent or support the real resistance (against Israel).

Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul-Gheit issued a statement last week re-iterating support for the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, after Trump said he was open to other ideas besides a two-state solution to the long-running Israel-Palestinian conflict.

Hooman Bakhtiar of VOAs Persian Service and Mehdi Jedinia of VOAs Extremist Watch Desk contributed to this report.

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Iran Uses Palestinian Conference to Spotlight Anti-Israel Rhetoric - Voice of America

ISTANBUL

Tensions are on the rise between Turkey and Iran. A growing war of words between the countries' diplomats has brought to the surface simmering competition for influence in the region.

Iran is an important neighbor to us. We have always been in dialogue with Iran. But it does not mean we will ignore Irans efforts in penetrating the region, said Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin in the latest thinly veiled threat between the countries during his weekly news conference.

Kalin was responding to comments by Ali Akbar Velayati, a key adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who told Turkish soldiers to leave Iraq and Syria, or the people would kick them out.

They are very serious, I mean the competition between Iran and Turkey, everyone knows it, it's like two elephants in a small room, warns political consultant Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners. Iran is clearly an expansionist country, their goal of building a Shia circle all the way from Tehran to Lebanon is no secret, at least from the Turkish perspective.

Experts say religious sectarianism underscores the tensions between predominantly Shia Iran and mostly Sunni Turkey.

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan likes to present himself as a protector of Sunni Muslim rights and has accused Iran of pursuing a policy of religious sectarianism, a charge Tehran denies. Earlier this month, Erdogan accused the Tehran-backed Hezbollah movement of being a terrorist organization.

Danger of overreach

But there are voices in Turkey questioning whether Ankara is in danger of overreach. What is our military strength, what is our foreign policy strength, what is our intelligence strength, asks former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen, suggesting Ankara should consider tempering its confrontational stance. Are we a regional power? Yes. Are we a global power? No. Are we a regional power which can have its way in all issues? No, we have to work with other regional powers like Iran.

Erdogan has been turning to other Sunni countries in the region for support.

FILE - Demonstrators shout slogans during a protest against Iran's role in Aleppo, Syria, near the Iranian Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, Dec. 16, 2016. The conflicts in Syria and Iraq have further chrystalized differences between Turkey and Iran both of which jockey for influence in the region.

This month, he visited Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States for talks observers say focused on curtailing Irans influence. Analysts suggest Ankaras assertive stance could be influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump.

With Trump, flexing his muscles against Tehran, Ankara may have sensed an opportunity to bring this antagonism into the open and to finally resolve this longstanding low level conflict in Syria and Iraq space, suggests consultant Yesilada.

Proxy wars

But he warns Ankara could pay a heavy price. That of course is also very costly, for one thing we have a gas deal with Iran, we have great hopes of economic cooperation. And finally of course Iran is not a country that easily gives up on its strategic advantages and currently it holds the upper hand in Iraq and Syria, said Yesilada.

The repercussions for Ankara are not likely to be confined to trade, with Tehran being an expert in fighting proxy wars. Regional reports say Tehran is seeking to court Kurdish insurgent group the PKK and its affiliates across the region.

Iran may use the Kurdish card. Turkey has been accusing Iran in the past of somehow harboring and assisting the PKK, claims political columnist Semih Idiz of the Al Monitor website. But there is a dilemma. Iran has its own problem with its own restive Kurdish minority, is it could get its own hands burned.

Turkey, the United States and the European Union consider the PKK a terrorist organization.

Iran unshackled

Despite the dangers of confronting Tehran, analyst Yesilada suggests Ankara believes it has little choice. Iran, unshackled from international sanctions from its nuclear expansion, will hem Turkey in and we will be unable to trade with our Arab partners, once it completes its Syria and Iraq project, predicts Yesilada.

Analysts suggest Iranian-Turkish tensions are set to continue to rise as they jockey for influence.

Both countries, historic regional powers, have a long history of managing their conflicting interests and balancing rivalry, and cooperation is often how bilateral relations are characterized. Idiz predicts the latest bout of tensions will test that balancing act.

We are coming to a very decisive moment in Syria and Iraq and these [Iranian-Turkish] tensions are a product of that. But the two countries have a tradition of trying not to allow differences to boil over. But what this latest diplomatic exchange has done has shown everybody that the two countries are very much on different sides in the Middle East. The danger is if some kind of accident, if there is a clash between Iranian and Turkish-supported forces, then things could get out of hand given both countries have very nationalistic populations, said Idiz.

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Tension Rising Between Regional Rivals Turkey and Iran - Voice of America

Iran is hard at work gaining a foothold in the global energy market, and its not letting U.S. President Donald Trumps confrontational tone stop it from trying.

Political rhetoric is unlikely to turn into tangible impediments for Irans ambition to join Russia and Norway in the ranks of major gas exporters, according to Deputy Oil Minister Amir Hossein Zamaninia.

The nation has about $7 trillion worth of gas reserves sitting underground, based on European benchmark prices, and its doors are open to those who will help it cash in on the fortune. Zamaninia thinks those sorts of figures mean the business case for Iranian energy is too tempting for the world to pass up, even as its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Trump exchange barbs.

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There are concerns and the international capital is scarce, but our projects and our environment are so attractive that we dont think we will face a great deal of difficulty, Zamaniniasaid in an interview last week at the CWC Iran LNG & Gas Summit in Frankfurt. We dont think that the new administration in the U.S. will pose a big problem in this department, in the oil and gas business.

While Iran has the largest commercial volumes of natural gas in the world, the country is a smaller exporter than Bolivia.That may soon change.Last year, U.S. President Barack Obama lifted a decade of economic sanctions in exchange for Iran limiting its nuclear program. Growing populations and economies in nearby countries, including Turkey and India, mean gas demand is also set to rise.

But theres also reason for doubt. Competition from other suppliers is intensifying, European prices have dropped 25 percent in the past five years and Iran consumes almost as much as it pumps. Theres an election around the corner and political challenges have forced the country to delay some gas projects for years.

Irans got just a huge amount of potential but I dont see anything major happening for some time, said Christopher Haines, head of oil and gas at BMI Research in London. We need a lot more trust between operators and the government and confidence in the political environment.

Then theres Trump. Through an executive order, the new U.S. president banned Iranians from entering the country for 90 days, citing the threat of terrorism. While that order was blocked by a court, he has said he will sign another one this week. He also put Iran on notice after it performed a missile test on Jan. 29, without clarifying what that meant.

Read here on what to watch in Trumps escalating confrontation with Iran

International politicking is delivering a temporary hiccup to investment, but Irans gas prize is big enough to motivate people to overcome their differences, Zamaninia said. The country has 56 gas fields with reserves of 33.7 trillion cubic meters, of which 40 are still undeveloped as a result of sanctions.

Hamid Soorghali, an energy analyst at Iran-focused consultant Energy Pioneers Ltd. in London, said that is probably true, and the country remains attractive to Russian and Chinese investors.

Trump will not have an impact on this macro trend, but rather can only affect the quality of achieved goals, he said by e-mail. Internal ambiguities and politicizations, such as over the price of gas for exports, can have more effect.

There are still debates within the country on how to make the best use of its natural gas. Using the fuel in oil fields or in power plants may benefit the economy more than exporting at current low prices, according to Ali Amirani, marketing director at the National Iranian Gas Export Co.

In terms of the international market, the price is not so attractive right now, at least until 2024, Amirani said in Frankfurt. This encourages us to think about these opportunities inside Iran.

With additional technology, Iran could export as much as 6 billion cubic feet (170 million cubic meters) of gas a day by 2030, mostly to Mideast countries, according to Siamak Adibi, head of Middle East gas at consultant FGE. That would make it the fifth-largest gas exporter in the world behind Russia and Norway, Canada and Qatar, according to 2015 figures in the BP Statistical Review.

Iran needs $70 billion to develop proposed oil and gas projects, and half of that could come through in a few short months, according to Zamaninia. The first pipeline to Iraq is ready to ship natural gas and a second to Basra is expected to start in two or three months, Zamaninia said. Haines of BMI Research agreed that timeline was possible.

Iran has huge potential to export due to its resources, said Adibi. The question is only where the market is.

Source: National Iranian Oil Company

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Money Talks Louder Than Trump for Iran in Natgas Push - Bloomberg

DUBAI The United States should expect a "strong slap in the face" if it underestimates Iran's defensive capabilities, a commander of the elite Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday, as Tehran concluded war games.

Since taking office last month, U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged to get tough with Iran, warning the Islamic Republic after its ballistic missile test on Jan. 29 that it was playing with fire and all U.S. options were on the table.

"The enemy should not be mistaken in its assessments, and it will receive a strong slap in the face if it does make such a mistake," said General Mohammad Pakpour, head of the Guards ground forces, quoted by the Guards' website Sepahnews.

On Wednesday, the Revolutionary Guards concluded three days of exercises with rockets, artillery, tanks and helicopters, weeks after Trump warned that he had put Tehran "on notice" over the missile launch.

"The message of these exercises ... for world arrogance is not to do anything stupid," said Pakpour, quoted by the semi-official news agency Tasnim.

"Everyone could see today what power we have on the ground." The Guards said they test-fired "advanced rockets" and used drones in the three-day exercises which were held in central and eastern Iran.

As tensions also mounted with Israel, a military analyst at Tasnim said that Iran-allied Hezbollah could use Iranian made Fateh 110 missiles to attack the Israeli nuclear reactor at Dimona from inside Lebanon.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said last Thursday that his group, which played a major role in ending Israel's occupation of Lebanon, could strike Dimona.

"Since Lebanon's Hezbollah is one of the chief holders of the Fateh 110, this missile is one of main alternatives for targeting the Dimona installations," Hossein Dalirian said in a commentary carried by Tasnim.

Iran says its missile program is defensive and not linked to its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. During the U.S. election race, Trump branded the accord "the worst deal ever negotiated", telling voters he would either rip it up or seek a better agreement.

(Reporting by Dubai newsroom; Editing by Sami Aboudi and Alison Williams)

LONDON/CAIRO An Islamic State suicide bomber from Britain who blew himself up in an attack on Iraqi forces this week had been given compensation for his detention in the Guantanamo Bay military prison, Western security sources said on Wednesday.

BEIRUT The Syrian army and its allies took a small district on the outskirts of Aleppo from rebels on Wednesday, a war monitor and a military media unit run by Damascus ally Hezbollah said.

BIELEFELD/BERLIN, Germany His only experience of governing in Germany is as a town mayor. She is Europe's most powerful leader. Yet Martin Schulz wants to end Angela Merkel's 11-year run as chancellor and fundamentally shift Germany's role in Europe. He might just pull it off.

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Iran ready to give US 'slap in the face': commander - Reuters