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Iran sits on what are thought to be the worlds largest gas reserves, yet can barely supply its own domestic demand.

Since the United Nations-backed deal over Tehrans nuclear program spurred the lifting of international sanctions, the country has strived to attract foreign investment in developing oil fields and upgrading its aging infrastructure.

The Ministry of Petroleum helped to convene the CWC Iran Gas Conference this week in Frankfurt, Germany, to bring together government figures and private investors.

Watch: Energy Giants Say Iran Needs $100 Billion for Gas Upgrade

Industry experts: $100 billion needed

Industry estimates suggest Iran needs to invest $100 billion in order to fully exploit the reserves. The nuclear agreement removed some sanctions on Iran, but mainly in Europe. It remains extremely difficult for American companies to do business, according to Reiner Jahn, vice president of the German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce and expert on financing deals with Iran.

Unless its licensed by OFAC, the U.S. sanctions authority, there is no way for an American to negotiate any transaction with an Iranian, he said.

So Iran is looking elsewhere.

Indian demand for gas is forecast to grow rapidly, and Tehran sees it as a key market. The private consortium South Asia Gas Enterprise, or SAGE, has advanced plans for the worlds deepest underwater pipeline connecting the two countries.

Our reconnaissance survey was performed between Oman and India. Unfortunately at that time the leg that went to Iran couldnt be surveyed because of sanctions. SAGE is expecting to perform the remaining leg of the survey to Iran this year, project director Ian Nash told delegates at the conference.

The 1,300-kilometer, $5 billion pipeline would lie on the seabed, more than 2,500 meters below the oceans surface. The viability of such investments depends on the price of gas, currently difficult to predict, says Vincent Groote of Dutch engineering firm Twister Supersonic Gas Solutions.

An OPEC for natural gas

You get [the price] floating up and down, which is not what investors would like. So I can imagine that as a natural development, similarly as OPEC for oil, in the long future we could think about a GPEC lets say a Gas-Producing-Exporting Country type of infrastructure.

Iran likely would wield considerable power in such a cartel, though there are clouds on the horizon.

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the nuclear deal, and he has imposed new sanctions on Iran following a recent missile test. History shows that the United States could still intervene to disrupt foreign investment, says Jahn.

The U.S. invented secondary sanctions, where they sanction European companies that acted in complete accordance with EU law, but not in accordance with U.S. law. Therefore. I think they have an impact in our market, he said.

The French bank BNP Paribas was fined $8.9 billion by U.S. authorities in 2014 for breaking such sanctions.

The nuclear deal may have lifted some restrictions, but analysts say Trump has introduced new uncertainty just as foreign investment in Iran starts to build.

Read more here:
Iran Needs Billions to Upgrade Gas Fields, But Will Investors Invest? - Voice of America

Forbes

Iran Irony: IRGC And State Firms Are Benefiting From JCPOA Forbes Those who raised the Iran deal flag, mainly in the United States and Europe, claimed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) would boost trade and encourage foreign investment, enhancing Iran's private sector and eventually downgrading the ... Thursday February 16, 2017Israel Hayom Iranian Concepts of Warfare: Understanding Tehran's Evolving Military DoctrinesAmerican Enterprise Institute all 7 news articles »

Read the rest here:
Iran Irony: IRGC And State Firms Are Benefiting From JCPOA - Forbes

The Americans were greeted in Iran with red roses, smiling fans and a barrage of selfies. No diplomatic crisis here.

But that wasn't the case just two weeks ago. Back then in the wake of President Trump's now-frozen travel ban it didn't look like a group of U.S. wrestlers would be allowed to compete in one of the sport'smost prestigious events. Now many arecalling it a triumph of sports over politics.

We are very happy to be here in Iran and ready to compete! Olympic gold medalistJordan Burroughswrote in a caption to an Instagram post on Tuesday, when the team landed in the western Iranian city of Kermanshah for the Freestyle World Cup.

The accompanying photo showed Burroughs, who is leading the team, surrounded by a crowd of local fans and reporters at the airport. Greeters gave the athletes roses and took selfies with Burroughs and others.

Welcome to Iran champ!!!!" one Iranian user, Saeed Mohammadi, commented on the Instagram photo.

Another, Nima Jan, said he was traveling to the stadium to cheer for Burroughs.

You proved that you are a noble man. This is a big chance for us, Jan said. We do not pay attention to the behavior of America's government toward Iran.

The two-day tournament began Thursday, when U.S. wrestlers faced off against Georgia, Russia and Azerbaijan. But it wasn't always certain that the Americans would get to compete. Just as in years past, the athletes were at the mercy of tensions between the two governments.

In late January, Trump signed an executive order temporarily banning nationals from seven Muslim-majority countries, including Iran, from entering the United States. Iranian officials responded by announcing their own entry ban on U.S. citizens, including the wrestling team that was just weeks away from traveling to Kermanshah.

Wrestling is wildly popular in Iran and is widely considered as the countrys national sport. Kermanshah has also served as an epicenter for wrestling in Iran.

I love Iran. I love their people, and I don't get into politics, Burroughs told the Associated Press on Feb. 3, after the team was notified they would not be able to travel.

I wasn't going to make a political stance, he said. I was going to compete.

Then something happened. On Feb. 5, a federal judge temporarily suspended the ban, and a higher U.S. appeals court refused the government's request to immediately reinstate the executive order.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif responded almost immediately on Twitter, saying the judicial decisions had prompted Iran's government to reverse course and grant visas to the U.S. wrestling team.

The United States and Iran have not had diplomatic relations since Iranian militants seized hostages at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979 following Iran's Islamic revolution. But in 1998, a wrestling tournament in Iran offered a chance for a small opening.

A U.S. wrestling team became the first American sports team to visit Iran since the revolution. The wrestlers received a warm reception, and the event opened the door for other U.S. sports and cultural exchanges.

This World Cup is going to be a special one! American wrestlerJames Greentweeted on Feb. 1.

We'll be bringing nations together as always, he said. No other sport does that like wrestling.

Brian Murphy contributed to this post.

Original post:
American wrestlers in Iran welcomed with roses and selfies - Washington Post

American Enterprise Institute

Russia, Iran Need Each Other, Despite Disagreements - WSJ Wall Street Journal (subscription) Iran and Russia aren't often on the same page in the Middle East, but if President Donald Trump's administration attempts to drive a wedge between the two, ... Pitting Russia against Iran in Syria? Get over itAmerican Enterprise Institute EXCLUSIVE: Shadowy Iranian general visits Moscow, violating sanctionsFox News Targeting Iran's Regime Will Strengthen, Not Break, the Moscow ...LobeLog Financial Tribune all 17 news articles »

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Russia, Iran Need Each Other, Despite Disagreements - WSJ - Wall Street Journal (subscription)

As a new U.S. administration highly critical of the nuclear deal it calls "the worst ever negotiated" settles into Washington, a top expert says the agreement between Iran and several other world powers could fall apart -- although the Islamic Republic would not pull the plug.

SHADOWY IRANIAN GENERAL VISITS MOSCOW, VIOLATING SANCTIONS

Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies has been intimately involved with the ins and outs of the landmark nuclear deal with Iran, signed by the U.S., Europe, Russia and China back in 2015. Fitzpatrick has tracked every centrifuge and studied each satellite image of nuclear sites that have been spotted from the skies for more than a decade. He has been privy to meetings of experts on both sides, has traveled the region extensively, and studies the possible scenarios that could arise should the deal, that curtails and monitors Iran's nuclear activity, fail.

Fitzpatrick shares some of his thoughts about the way forward with the Islamic Republic, and containing its suspect nuclear program.

OPINION: THE SURPRISING TRUTH ABOUT IRAN AND THE WEST

"I think it's clear that the nuclear deal is in jeopardy," he tells Fox News, but notes that Iran does not want to be the one to break that deal. "So there will probably be a tit for tat, and Iran will face additional pressure, not getting the economic benefits it wanted. It will be testing more missiles and so forth and within a year the deal will be under very severe pressure."

Fitzpatrick suggests that if the deal were to unravel, and Iran were to resume the level enrichment that would get it within a couple months of being able to produce highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon, there would be serious talk again about the prospect of a military strike.

While conventional wisdom has been that since several states are party to the deal, the United States alone couldn't undo it, Fitzpatrick believes Washington could in fact cause a de facto dismantling of the accord, by effectively keeping European countries to refrain from doing business with the Islamic Republic.

Fitzpatrick believes it is essential to keep up the pressure on Iran, calling it out when it undertakes actions that are detrimental to the security of the United States and its allies in the region. That includes moves like the designated sanctions President Trump imposed after the January 29 ballistic missile test carried out by Tehran, but Fitzpatrick offered his own advice to Trump.

"I would caution him about speaking rhetoric and laying out red lines like 'You are on notice', which is vague. Setting a red line that is vague like that sort of invites the other party to test it, to walk across it, and then the Administration is faced with a moral hazard question."

In other words, Fitzpatrick explained, that hazard is somehow enforcing the fuzzy red line. "That would give," he says, "the other party the belief that it can push the U.S. around."

Fitzpatrick is particularly adamant that calls on Iran to stop harrassing U.S and other ships in the Gulf are kept up. He admits that Iran has increased its missile testing, which it had severely curtailed during nuclear negotiations.

"They are doing more missile tests. Not every missile test, however, is dangerous," Fitzpatrick says. "Iran recently was said to have tested another missile. It wasn't a ballistic missile that could carry nuclear weapons, it was an anti-ship missile. We shouldn't jump at everything Iran does and say 'this is dangerous to the U.S.' We should be careful how we assess Iran. That is my reccomendation."

Fitzpatrick is concerned about the U.S. visa ban, currently suspended, on seven countries, which includes Iran. He says until now, those with pro-U.S. sentiments in Iran could say that U.S. punitive actions vis-a-vis the Islamic Republic were directed at Iranian government officials and actions, "but a visa ban that keeps the entire nation of Iran from entering the U.S. attacks everybody."

Despite decades of severed relations between the two countries, Iran is often said to have one of the most pro-U.S. streets in the Middle East. Fitzpatrick says, "the other point about the visa ban is that there have been no acts of terror in the United States commited by any Iranian citizen, so they are wondering in Iran why they are being blamed."

Fitzpatrick says his Iran contacts tell him that there is debate in the inner circles there about how to respond to President Trump, his words, and his actions. Some say Iranian power players are even debating a new route-"the high road." He says they are genuinely worried that the nuclear deal will fall apart.

Clearly, the hardline factions will have zero interest in talk of high roads. And their own internal debates will likely sharpen, as Iran soon enters its own election cycle, this spring, which is expected to pit sitting President Hassan Rohani, an advocate of better relations between Iran and other countries, against a hardline opponent from the camp that seeks legitimacy in defending an Iran perpetually in confrontation with the West.

Amy Kellogg currently serves as a Senior Foreign Affairs Correspondent based in Milan, Italy. She joined Fox News Channel (FNC) in 1999 as a Moscow-based correspondent. Follow her on Twitter: @amykelloggfox

Original post:
Iran nuclear deal could unravel with Europe's help, analyst says - Fox News