Trump draws red line with Iran – San Francisco Chronicle
As promised, President Trump made his first Supreme Court nomination last week, a historic choice that dominated headlines in the subsequent days.
But 14 hours later, his White House issued an unexpected statement that could have fateful consequences too. The statement, followed by others and new financial sanctions on Iran, effectively drew a diplomatic red line designed to contain that troublesome country.
In only 244 words, National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, a former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, listed a series of Iranian transgressions, including funding global terrorism, flouting U.N. resolutions on ballistic missile tests and attacking ships in international waters. He could have also mentioned seizing American sailors.
Flynn ended with: As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice.
Asked later whether military action was a possibility, Trump said what all presidents claim: Everything is on the table.
The situation is particularly precarious because after President Barack Obamas numerous empty threats, the United States has scant credibility as an enforcer, especially in the Middle East. It will take some time and perhaps the use of military force for a Trump administration to be taken more seriously.
Predictably, Iran dismissed the U.S. bluster and launched another rocket as Trumps domestic opponents protested his temporary immigration ban and its rollout.
Now remember: During the presidential campaign, two of Trumps major themes involved the Obama administrations terrible foreign deals, especially the nuclear pact with Iran, and the unfortunate predictability of Obamas foreign policies. The United States needs to be less predictable, Trump said.
Well, you may have noticed in the new presidents first two weeks there was a good deal of unpredictability. Not by accident.
Iran, Vice President Mike Pence warned, would do well not to test the resolve of this new president.
Obamas diplomacy was indeed predictable in one very serious sense: No matter what he sought, implied or threatened, there would be no serious consequences beyond words and ineffective sanctions.
Often Obama offered concessions even before they were sought. He canceled missile defense systems in Eastern Europe to coax Russian cooperation in reining in Iranian ambitions. Russia said thanks, then sold advanced military hardware to the mullahs.
Obama pledged swift justice on Benghazis murderers; nothing happened. His economic sanctions on Russia for annexing Crimea were so serious that President Vladimir Putin ignored them, armed Iran, fomented rebellion within Ukraine and moved militarily into Syria.
Obamas worst display of impotence came from his infamous 2012 threat to Syrias Bashar Assad that using chemical weapons in that civil war would cross a red line in the Democrats mind.
A year later, Assad had again used chemicals on civilians. Facing domestic criticism, Obama blustered, did nothing, blamed Congress for inaction, and Putin stepped in to broker a faux weapons disposal.
In real estate negotiations and his recent campaign, Trump has seen unpredictability as a positive bargaining tool. Sending Flynn out to read carefully from a prepared text and take no complicating questions was a clear sign that Trump will employ such strategic ambiguity and threats in diplomacy. Let Iran imagine how bad the consequences might be, starting with renewed sanctions.
A problem with ambiguity, of course, is that a paranoid opponent might overreact. More importantly, Trump must be prepared to impose consequences on his notice. And then be prepared for the enemys reaction to those consequences.
Westerners have an expression for someone who talks a lot and does little. They say hes all hat and no cattle. Trump has that familiar red baseball cap. To avoid earning the same international reputation as Obama, well soon see whether the New Yorker has any cattle in his diplomatic herd.
McClatchy Washington Bureau
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Trump draws red line with Iran - San Francisco Chronicle