Mediaboss Marketing

By Amir Hossein Mahdavi By Amir Hossein Mahdavi January 23

The recent death of Irans former president Hashemi Rafsanjani has triggered fears that Irans reformist camp has also been fatally wounded. Many are concerned that without Rafsanjanis imposing presence, current President Hassan Rouhani will be overpowered by the conservative religious establishment and a controlling IRGC. However, Rouhani may in fact emerge stronger from Rafsanjanis death.

Rafsanjani along with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was one of the last remaining founders of the Islamic Republic in 1979. His last position as head of the expediency discernment council did not give him much executive power. But his presence in key roles over 38 years of the Islamic Republic made him one of the few symbols of stability in the Iranian political context.

In his last years, Rafsanjani retained strong ties to dignified Shiite clerical figures and the Shiite Seminary. That strong bond protected him from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the conservative former president, and from other radical forces who wanted him out. Rafsanjani initially was a principal supporter of Ayatollah Khamenei and helped ensure his selection as Irans supreme leader but their relationship gradually soured.

Following Rafsanjanis defeat in the 2005 elections, he was sidelined: He was no longer Tehrans Friday imam, and two of his children were convicted in closed-court proceedings and imprisoned for fraud and political charges. The supreme leader never cut off Rafsanjani completely, however. And among the people who had access to Khamenei, Rafsanjani was the only moderate figure who expressed supported free trade and ties with the West.

Rafsanjani protected Hassan Rouhani and paved the way for Rouhani to succeed him as president. Rouhani was Rafsanjanis deputy from the beginning of the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, continuing to 2013, when Rouhani won the presidential elections. Rouhani replaced Rafsanjani in the election after Rafsanjani was disqualified by the Guardian Council. In the years that followed Rouhanis election, Rafsanjani openly supported his government through several controversies, including the nuclear deal and the 2016 parliamentary elections. Many felt Rafsanjani articulated what Rouhani could not publicly say.

Given the sensitivity of the supreme leader to the governments involvement in partisan politics, the house arrest of Green Movement leaders, and the stringent limitations imposed on the reformist former president Mohammad Khatami, it fell to Rafsanjani to take on the role of leading the reformist movement. Under his guidance, reformist candidates won a majority in parliament in the March 2016 election.

Now that Rafsanjani has died, Rouhani has no choice but to undertake the leadership of the reformist movement himself. Most post mortems have suggested that everything is now harder for Rouhani just five months from the presidential election in June. Having lost his mentor, he now faces the hard-liners on his own.

Should Rouhani be defeated in the next elections and a radical government formed, it could negatively affect the long-term future of Iran. Under such conditions, Rafsanjanis death would be bad news for the conservative clergy, as well as for moderates and reformists in general. Notwithstanding its unwanted consequences, however, this important event could also present reformists with opportunities.

Adopting a role to lead reformists outside the government is admittedly not a role Rouhani would likely choose under his own volition, given that his previous positions second-in-command during the Iran-Iraq War and secretary of the Supreme National Security Council reflect his inclination toward managing security and defense affairs and away from engaging in partisan reformist actions. But the death of Rafsanjani brings Rouhanis interests and those of civil society into a closer alignment.

While before, Rouhanis role was as a proxy for Rafsanjani, now the possibility of him simultaneously leading both the administration and the reformist masses is buoyed. These new circumstances require that Rouhani take more explicit positions, articulate his supporters demands for political and cultural freedom and reduce the interference of militants in political affairs.

Rouhanis actions now will determine how his evolving political role will shift. Rouhanis direct cooperation with reformist grass-roots factions effectively makes him a proxy for reformers, as the only one to echo demands for reform to the circles of power. Undoubtedly, this will attract criticism, including from the supreme leader and those in unelected positions of power. Nevertheless, this role could also transform Rouhani into a political leader acceptable to a wide range of supporters of modernization and development, both within Iranian society and among foreign observers.

To protect himself against powers opposed to him, Rouhani will also especially need support from the West, which made economic demands in relation to the nuclear deal. Rouhani may be building his ambitions as he considers running for a second term in 2017, yet his complex political situation may also ultimately make him a threat to the implementation of any succession plan.

The continuous suppression since 2009 of both political leaders, parties and the reformist movements supporters present Rouhani with a well-timed bid at a reelection campaign. Considering Rouhanis membership in the assembly of experts in 1989 when then-President Ayatollah Khamenei was chosen as the next supreme leader (the only incidence of leader substitution in the history of the Islamic Republic) Rouhani has great potential to be proposed as a candidate for the leadership position himself if his public support is sustained.

The sudden death of Rafsanjani eliminated a moderate pillar of the Islamic Republic, but it did not put an end to the possibility of replacing it. Everything depends on how Rouhani plays his cards in the near future and on the support he gets from the grass roots during his encounters with radicals.

Amir Hossein Mahdavi is a researcher at Brandeis Universitys Crown Center for Middle East Studies and a graduate student at Harvard Universitys Center for Middle East Studies. He previously served as an editor at several of Irans daily newspapers.

Continue reading here:
Why the death of Iran's leading moderate could strengthen its reformists - Washington Post

Foreign Policy (blog)

Trump Can Have This Iran Deal or No Iran Deal Foreign Policy (blog) His new defense secretary said at his confirmation hearing that America must honor the deal, and his nominee for CIA director placed the emphasis on enforcement, saying the agency must be rigorously objective on Iran. Neither spoke of a renegotiation. and more »

Continued here:
Trump Can Have This Iran Deal or No Iran Deal - Foreign Policy (blog)

"Our colleagues in the fire department have lost their lives while trying to save the people in the fire," Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf told the Islamic Republic of Iran News Network.

Earlier Thursday, Tehran's fire department spokesman Jalal Maleki told IRINN an estimated 20 to 30 firefighters were on the third floor of the high-rise Plasco building when it collapsed.

Maleki also told a local journalist at the scene that 35 firefighters were missing and that rescue workers were trying to dig them out.

The cause of the building fire and collapse is being investigated, he added.

The journalist on the scene, who spoke to CNN but declined to be named, said police and other uniformed security personnel have blocked the area and are not allowing people or cars to enter.

The journalist said that when he got there, several firefighters were inside the collapsed building and were feverishly trying to clear the debris and find buried colleagues, but their commander, using a loud speaker, had ordered them all out before assigning them to specific tasks.

Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported that the Plasco building -- a downtown commercial garment building and one of Tehran's oldest high-rises -- "no longer exists."

Official news agency IRNA cited the head of Tehran Emergency Services as saying 70 people had been injured in the fire.

A spokesman for Tehran Emergency Services, Hassan Abbasi, told IRNA that 23 seriously injured people were receiving hospital treatment. The remaining 47 had minor injuries and were treated at the site, Abbasi said.

Fars cited Maleki as saying that some 10 fire departments responded immediately to the blaze. But, he added, some people didn't realize the building was on fire because Tehran's air pollution masked the smoke from the blaze.

Maleki also reportedly said the fire is now out, but rescue operations are in full swing.

"The building collapsed on itself (vertically) and did not damage the adjacent buildings," IRNA quoted Maleki as saying.

IRNA said staff members at two nearby embassies and residents of many surrounding buildings had been asked to leave as a precaution.

The agency quoted Tehran Governor Hossein Hashemi as saying the fire was an accident and that no security issue was involved.

Fars cited Mojtaba Doroodian, head of the shirt makers' union, as saying that the fire was the result of a leak in a small gas cylinder on the 10th floor, which caused an explosion when a merchant turned on the lights in his store.

"When people in the building became aware of the fire they tried to put it out with fire extinguishers, but the fire extinguishers were empty," Doroodian is quoted as saying.

The fire blazed through the upper stories for over three hours, sending out thick plumes of black smoke, before the building came down.

The Plasco building, built more than 50 years ago, was home to hundreds of garment manufacturers and other businesses, Fars reported. Most were evacuated, it said.

Located on Jomhouri Avenue in central Tehran, the Plasco building was constructed in 1962. It was named after a successful plastics business, Plascokar.

Seventeen stories tall, it was the country's first private high-rise building and soon became a well-known feature of the city's skyline.

Alistair Esfahanizadeh, who took a picture of the building before the collapse, posted on his Instagram account Thursday: "I probably took one of the last pictures of the building standing yesterday before the sunset."

The building housed offices and shops. The Plasco Shopping Center, known mostly for its clothing stores, was spread across several floors.

CNN's Shirzad Bozorgmehr reported from Tehran and Laura Smith-Spark wrote and reported from London. CNN's Judith Vonberg contributed to this report.

Read more here:
Iran: 'More than 20 firefighters dead' in Tehran building collapse

By Amir Vahdat and Jon Gambrell, TheAssociated Press

TEHRAN, Iran A historic high-rise building in the heart of Irans capital caught fire and later collapsed Thursday, killing at least 30 firefighters and leaving their stunned colleagues and bystanders weeping in the streets.

The disaster at the 17-story Plasco building, inadvertently shown live on state television, came after authorities said they repeatedly warned tenants about blocking stairwells with fabric from cramped garment workshops on its upper floors.

Firefighters, soldiers and other emergency responders dug through the debris into the night, looking for survivors. While it was not clear how many people were in the steel-and-concrete building, witnesses said many had slipped through a police cordon while the fire burned to go back inside for their belongings.

They asked us using loudspeakers to evacuate the building, but some people went inside again, saying their precious documents, their bank checks, their entire life was in their shops, said witness Masoud Hosseini. They went inside to fetch those documents. I felt like they cared about their belongings, checks and money more than their lives.

Firefighters went inside to bring them out, and then suddenly the building collapsed, Hosseini said.

Iranian authorities did not immediately release definitive casualty figures, which is common in unfolding disasters.

Irans state-run Press TV announced the firefighters deaths, without giving a source for the information. Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said more than 20 bodies of firefighters had been recovered by Thursday night.

Local state television said 30 civilians were injured, while the state-run IRNA news agency said 45 firefighters had been injured.

Firefighters began battling the blaze around 8 a.m., some 3 1/2 hours before the collapse. The fire appeared to be the most intense on the upper floors, the site of workshops where tailors cooked for themselves and used old kerosene heaters for warmth.

The building came down in seconds, shown live on state television , which had begun an interview with a journalist at the scene. One side collapsed first, tumbling perilously close to a firefighter perched on a ladder and spraying water on the blaze.

A thick plume of brown smoke rose over the site afterward, and onlookers wailed in grief.

God willing, nothing happened to firefighters who were there, the journalist said, then began crying.

Watching the disaster unfold was Masoumeh Kazemi, who said she rushed to the building because her two sons and a brother worked in the garment workshops on the upper floors.

I do not know where they are now, Kazemi said, crying.

In a nearby intersection, Abbas Nikkhoo stood with tears in his eyes.

My nephew was working in a workshop there, he said. He has been living with me since moving to Tehran last year from the north of the country in hopes of finding a job.

Irans Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressed sorrow over the fire in a statement and praised the courage and sacrifice of the firefighters.

President Hassan Rouhani ordered Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli to investigate the disaster, IRNA reported. Rouhani also ordered the ministry to ensure the injured were cared for and immediately compensate those affected by the disaster. Rouhani, whose administration struck the nuclear deal with world powers, will probably be standing for re-election in May.

The cause of the blaze wasnt immediately known. However, fire department spokesman Jalal Maleki said authorities had visited the building often to warn tenants about conditions there.

Everyone stacked up goods outside their shops and in the staircases and corridors, Maleki said. We warned them many times, but they wouldnt listen.

In the hours after the collapse, authorities also described the building as having a weak structure, without elaborating.

Another fire broke out later Thursday at a building next to the collapsed tower, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. Firefighters worked into the night to extinguish it.

The Plasco building was an iconic presence on Tehrans skyline, one of the first to rise against the backdrop of the snowcapped Mount Damavand. Opened in 1962, it was the first privately owned tower to be built during the era of the U.S.-backed shah, when oil money fueled the capitals rapid development.

The tower, the tallest in Tehran at the time and just north of the sprawling Grand Bazaar, got its name from the plastics manufacturing company owned by its builder, Iranian Jewish businessman Habib Elghanian.

After the 1979 Islamic Revolution that overthrew the shah, Irans new clerical rulers had Elghanian tried on charges that included spying for Israel. He was executed by firing squad an outcome that prompted many of the remaining members of the countrys longstanding Jewish community to flee.

The state-controlled Islamic Revolution Mostazafan Foundation took ownership of the building. The foundation, which has ties to the powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, made no immediate statement about the collapse.

The fire was the worst in Tehran since a 2005 blaze at a historic mosque killed 59 worshippers and injured nearly 200 others.

Thursdays disaster stunned the city. Firefighters openly wept on the streets, holding each other for support. Dozens of people lined up to donate blood.

It is a humanitarian duty, said Gholamreza Heidari, a university student. It is nothing compared to the dedication that our firefighters showed in rescuing people.

___

Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Associated Press writers Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Adam Schreck in Dubai and Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey, contributed.

Read the rest here:
Iran shocked by deadly fire, collapse of Tehran high-rise The Denver Post

MADRID It is unfortunate that so few international agreements have been reached in recent years. During a period when great-power competition has generally trumped cooperation, two significant exceptions the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris climate agreement offer hope that formalized, multilateral responses to global challenges are still possible.

But now Donald Trump is threatening to renege on both agreements, and his election as President of the United States has revealed their fragility. If the US withdraws from, or fails to comply with, either deal, it will strike a heavy blow to a global-governance system that relies on multilateral agreements to resolve international problems.

To see what is at stake, consider the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between Iran and the E3/EU3+3 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, plus Germany and the European Union). The JCPOAs first anniversary coincided with Trumps inauguration, so it is worth recalling how it came about and what could happen if it falls apart.

Europeans first made contact with Iran about the issue back in 2003, when they negotiated with then-Secretary of the Iranian National Security Council, Hassan Rouhani. Both sides even reached an agreement in 2004; but it did not last long. In 2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejads election as President of Iran marked a turning point. While the negotiations officially continued, scant progress was made. Meanwhile, Irans nuclear program advanced rapidly, even as its people suffered under heavy economic sanctions.

Rouhani won Irans presidential election in 2013. When he had negotiated with European diplomats in 2003, Iran had a modest nuclear program, and could enrich uranium only with great difficulty. Ten years later, it had installed thousands of centrifuges. Fortunately, tireless diplomatic efforts during the two years following Rouhanis election culminated in the JCPOA.

Of course, there were vocal critics in the US who did not welcome the agreement, or the prospect of negotiating with Iran at all. And other countries in the Middle East feared that the agreement would alter the regional balance of power and damage their own interests. Opponents of the deal offered three main reasons for rejecting it: Iran could never be trusted to fulfill its commitments; the agreement would unacceptably elevate Irans regional status; and Iran did not deserve the time of day.

In the year since the JCPOA was implemented, has Iran fulfilled its commitments? The International Atomic Energy Agency says that it has. Iran has allowed the IAEA to inspect every site that the agency has requested to see including those from which it was barred before the agreement and has granted inspectors access to its electronic systems and chain of enrichment.

The IAEA insists that no country has ever been more closely monitored. As the International Crisis Group points out, Trump is the first US president in more than two decades who enters office not needing to worry about Iran crossing the threshold to nuclear weaponization undetected.

To be sure, many of us had hoped that the agreement would noticeably improve Irans relations with its neighbors and the US, and that has not happened. The agreement created a diplomatic window to stabilize the region, but that opportunity was squandered. The wars in Syria and Yemen have continued, rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran seems unlikely any time soon, and Russia is visibly asserting itself in the region.

But the blame does not rest with the JCPOA, which was negotiated as a delimited non-proliferation agreement. Taking regional diplomacy any further at that time would have been impossible. But, given the new period of uncertainty under Trump, the European negotiating parties should now assume responsibility for maintaining the JCPOA, and they should urgently propose an initiative to increase stability in the region.

Russia and Turkey convened a meeting in Kazakhstan this month for Syrian rebel groups and the Syrian government to begin peace talks. This effort should be expanded to include other parties, and be used as a first step toward building regional trust. All stakeholders will benefit from putting their energy into peacemaking instead of attacking the Iran agreement.

It is chilling to imagine the current situation without the JCPOA. Troubled Saudi Arabia would like to end its military intervention in Yemen, but that is no easy feat. Iran is commencing a presidential election campaign, while reeling from the death of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president and one of the architects of the Islamic Republic. Turkey is seeking an outcome to the Syrian conflict that aligns with its own policy toward the Kurds. Russia needs to withdraw its troops from Syria an intervention that has been bleeding its economy. And the EU still needs to resolve the refugee crisis, in a context of regional stability.

Trump should think seriously about Americas interests, and those of the region. If he does, he will realize that the alternative to contributing to regional stability is to risk an even greater nightmare.

Get to grips with President Trump; Project Syndicate has published more than 100 articles exploring the implications of his presidency for politics, the economy, and world peace and security. They are all here:

Link:
Trump, Iran, and Stability in the Middle East - Project Syndicate