Archive for the ‘Iran’ Category

Iran Ramping Up Oil Production – For The Short And Long Term – Seeking Alpha

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Adding further pressure to the attempt to support the price of oil, Iran recently stated it will increase production to 4 million barrels per day by April, approximately 100,000 more barrels per day than it's producing now, according to Reuters, citing SHANA, the official news site of the Iranian oil ministry.

With the amount of supply coming from producers outside of the output cut deal launched in January, it puts even more pressure on the price of oil, which has continued to be in the $50 to $55 per barrel range, with the most likelihood it'll break downward with the fundamentals favoring more, rather than less production going forward.

This is the reason OPEC in particular is already floating the idea of deepening and extending the cut: it isn't working. Only about 50 days into the 6-month deal, it is already considered to be ineffective in producing the desired results.

Iran production in the short term

National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) head Ali Kardor, was recently cited by the Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA) as saying the country was going to produce 4 million barrels per day by April. That's about 100,000 more than the approximate 3.9 million barrels per day produced in January.

That will probably occur earlier, as Kardor said he sees oil output reaching 4 million barrels per day by the end of the Iranian year, which is on March 20. Either way, this isn't a insignificant amount when considering the U.S. is rapidly increasing production, and Canada and Brazil are expected to add over 400,000 more barrels per day to global supply in 2017.

This also doesn't account for the 500,000 more barrels per day to be added by Libya by August 2017, according to a statement from National Oil Corp., the state oil company.

Jadalla Alaokali pointed out that Schlumberger (SLB) once again started operations several months ago. Libya is now producing over 700,000 barrels per day, after being under pressure from internal strife. It sees output reaching 1.2 million barrels per day by August 2017 and climbing to 1.7 barrels per day by March 2018.

This is a lot of oil coming to the market in the short term when included with Iran's projections. Strangely, the market continues to discount the enormous increase in supply coming in 2017. OPEC now understands it, which is why it's already looking to deeper and longer cuts after the existing deal is completed.

Long-term Iranian production goals

Over the next five years, Iran says it'll drill another 500 wells, with the goal of boosting output to 4.7 million barrels per day. The new drilling will start in March or April.

This plan is more in line with my outlook for growing global demand for oil, which should be rebalanced by that time and the market pressured to provide the needed supply of oil.

At this time Eni (NYSE:E) and Total (NYSE:TOT) should be the major beneficiaries over the long term, of the publicly traded companies working in Iran. Other companies will probably be slow to work or increase their presence in the area until it's clearer how the geopolitical situation with the U.S. plays out.

Conclusion

Iran is another reason investors should take a harder look at the impact of the output cut agreement, which has obviously reached the ceiling of its influence as related to the price of oil. Not only that, the market is ripe for a correction as the outlook for supply continues to increase, while the OPEC deal is seen as very weak and representative of a time when the oil market was much different than it is today.

My thesis has been and will continue to be that the oil market has been completely disrupted with the emergence of the U.S. shale industry, which has propelled the U.S. to become the global oil leader. The amount of oil expected to come from the shale sector, when combined with those producers mentioned above, is easily going to offset the oil allegedly taken off the table from the output agreement.

It's not going to take too long before the market realizes how much oil is coming to the market in the near term, and how ineffective and irrelevant the output cut deal is and will be. OPEC knows this, which is why, again, it's so quickly talking deeper and longer cuts.

Anyone believing all the OPEC and other participants in this deal are going to quietly sit by and see market share ripped out of their hands, in my opinion, have to be completely naive, or have their head in the sand concerning the fact shale has permanently changed the dynamics of the oil market. Don't be one of them.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Iran Ramping Up Oil Production - For The Short And Long Term - Seeking Alpha

Democratic Ex-Dove Proposes War on Iran – Consortium News

Exclusive: The Democrats rush to rebrand themselves as super-hawks is perhaps best illustrated by the once-dovish Rep. Alcee Hastings proposing stand-by authorization for the President to attack Iran, reports Nicolas J S Davies.

By Nicolas J S Davies

Rep. Alcee Hastingshas sponsored a bill toauthorize President Trump to attack Iran. Hastings reintroduced H J Res 10, the Authorization of Use of Force Against Iran Resolution on Jan. 3, the first day of the new Congress after President Trumps election.

Hastingss bill has come asa shock to constituents and people who have followed his career as a 13-term Democratic Member of Congress from South Florida.Miami Beach resident Michael Gruener called Hastingss bill, extraordinarily dangerous, and asked, Does Hastings even consider to whom he is giving this authorization?

Fritzie Gaccione, the editor of the South Florida Progressive Bulletin noted that Iran is complying with the 2015 JCPOA(Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action)and expressed amazement that Hastings has reintroduced this bill at a moment when the stakes are so high and Trumps intentions so unclear.

How can Hastings hand this opportunity to Trump? she asked.Trump shouldnt be trusted with toy soldiers, let alone the American military.

Speculation by people in South Florida as to why Alcee Hastings has sponsored such a dangerous billreflect two general themes. One is thathe ispaying undue attentionto the pro-Israel groups who raised10 percent of his coded campaign contributionsfor the 2016 election.The other is that,at the age of 80, he seems to be carrying water for thepay-to-playClinton wing of the Democratic Party as part ofsome kind of retirement plan.

Alcee Hastings is better known to the public as a federal judge who wasimpeached for briberyand fora series of ethical lapses as a Congressmanthan for his legislative record.The 2012 Family Affairs report by the Committee for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington found thatHastings paid his partner, Patricia Williams, $622,000 to serve as his deputy district director from 2007 to 2010, the largest amount paid to a family member by any Member of Congress in the report.

But Hastings sits in one of the 25safest Democratic seats in the House anddoes not seem to haveever faced a serious challenge from a Democratic primary opponent or a Republican.

Alcee Hastingss voting record on war and peace issues has been aboutaverage for a Democrat.He voted against the 2002 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) on Iraq, and his 79 percent lifetime Peace Action score is the highest among current House members from Florida, althoughAlan Graysons was higher.

Hastings voted against the bill to approve the JCPOA or nuclear agreement with Iran and first introduced his AUMF bill in 2015. With the approval of the JCPOA and Obamas solid commitment to it, Hastingss bill seemed like a symbolic act that posed little danger until now.

In the new Republican-led Congress, with the bombastic and unpredictable Donald Trump in the White House, Hastingss bill could actually serve as a blank check for war on Iran, and it is carefully worded to be exactly that.It authorizes the open-ended use offorce against Iran withno limits onthe scaleor duration of the war.The only sense in which the bill meets the requirements of the War Powers Act is that it stipulates that it does so.Otherwise it entirely surrenders Congresss constitutional authority for anydecision overwar with Iran to the President, requiring only that he report to Congress on the war once every 60 days.

Dangerous Myths

The wording of Hastingss bill perpetuates dangerous myths about the nature of Irans nuclear program that have been thoroughly investigated anddebunked after decades of intense scrutiny by experts, from the U.S. intelligence community to the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA).

As former IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei explained in his book, The Age of Deception: Nuclear Diplomacy in Treacherous Times, the IAEA has never found any real evidence of nuclear weapons research or development in Iran, any more than in Iraq in 2003, the last time such myths were abused to launch our country into a devastating and disastrous war.

In Manufactured Crisis: theUntold Story of theIran Nuclear Scare, investigative journalistGareth Porter meticulously examinedthe suspected evidence of nuclear weapons activity in Iran.Heexploredthe reality behind every claimand explainedhow the deep-seated mistrustin U.S.-Iran relations gave rise to misinterpretations of Irans scientific researchand ledIran to shroud legitimate civilian research in secrecy. This climate of hostility and dangerous worst-case assumptions even ledtothe assassination of four innocent Iranian scientists by alleged Israeli agents.

The discreditedmyth of an Iranian nuclear weapons program was perpetuated throughout the 2016 election campaign by candidates of both parties, but Hillary Clinton was particularly strident inclaiming credit for neutralizing Irans imaginary nuclear weapons program.

President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry also reinforced a false narrative that the dual-track approach of Obamas first term, escalating sanctions and threats of war at the same time as holding diplomatic negotiations, brought Iran to the table.This was utterly false.Threats and sanctions served only to undermine diplomacy, strengthen hard-liners on both sides and push Iran into building 20,000 centrifuges to supply its civilian nuclear programwith enriched uranium, as documented in Trita Parsis book, A Single Roll of the Dice: Obamas Diplomacy With Iran.

A former hostage at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran who rose to be a senior officer on the Iran desk at the State Department told Parsi that the main obstacle to diplomacy with Iran during Obamas first term was the U.S. refusal to take Yes for an answer.

When Brazil and Turkey persuaded Iran to accept the terms of an agreement proposed by the U.S. a few months earlier, the U.S. responded by rejecting its own proposal. By thenthe main U.S.goal was to ratchet up sanctions at the U.N., which thisdiplomatic success would haveundermined.

Trita Parsi explained that this was only one of many ways in which the two tracks of Obamas dual-track approach were hopelessly at odds with each other.Only once Clinton was replaced by John Kerry at the State Department did serious diplomacy displace brinksmanship and ever-rising tensions.

Next Target for U.S. Aggression?

Statements by President Trump have raised hopes for a new detente with Russia.But there is no firmevidence of a genuine rethink of U.S. war policy, an end to serial U.S. aggression or a new U.S. commitment to peace or the rule of international law.

Trump and his advisers may hope that some kind of deal with Russia could give them the strategic space to continue Americas war policy on other fronts withoutRussian interference.But this would only grant Russia a temporary reprieve from U.S. aggression as long as U.S. leaders still view regime change or mass destruction as the only acceptable outcomes for countries thatchallengeU.S.dominance.

Students of history, not least 150 million Russians, will remember that another serial aggressor offered Russia a deal like that in 1939, and that Russias complicity with Germany over Poland only set the stage for the total devastation of Poland, Russia and Germany.

One former U.S. official who has consistently warned of the danger of U.S. aggression against Iran is retired General Wesley Clark.In his 2007 memoir, A Time To Lead, General Clark explained that his fears wererooted in ideas embraced by hawks in Washington since the end of the Cold War.Clark recalls Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Paul Wolfowitzs response in May 1991 when he congratulated him on his role in the Gulf War.

We screwed up and left Saddam Hussein in power. The president believes hell be overthrown by his own people, but I rather doubt it, Wolfowitz complained. But we did learn one thing thats very important. With the end of the Cold War, we can now use our military with impunity. The Soviets wont come in to block us. And weve got five, maybe 10, years to clean up these old Soviet surrogate regimes like Iraq and Syria before the next superpower emerges to challenge us We could have a little more time, but no one really knows.

The view that the end of the Cold War opened the door for a series of U.S.-led wars in the Middle East was widely heldamong hawkish officials and advisers in the Bush I administration and military-industrial think tanks.During the propaganda push for war on Iraq in 1990, Michael Mandelbaum, the director of East-West studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, crowed to the New York Times, for the first time in 40 years, we can conduct military operations in the Middle East without worrying about triggering World War III.

Self-Inflicted Nightmare

As we begin the fifth U.S. administration since 1990, U.S. foreign policy remains trapped in the self-inflicted nightmare that those dangerous assumptions produced.Today, war-wise Americans can quite easily fill in the unasked questions that Wolfowitzs backward-looking and simplistic analysis failed to ask, let alone answer, in 1991.

What did he mean by clean up?What if we couldnt clean them all up in the short historical window he described?What if failed efforts to clean up these old Soviet surrogate regimes left only chaos, instability and greater dangers in their place? Which leads to the stilllargelyunasked and unanswered question: how can we actually clean up the violence and chaosthat we ourselves have now unleashed on the world?

In 2012, Norwegian General Robert Mood was forced to withdraw a U.N. peacekeeping team from Syria after Hillary Clinton, Nicolas Sarkozy, David Cameron and their Turkish and Arab monarchist allies undermined U.N. envoy Kofi Annans peace plan.

In 2013, as they unveiled their Plan B, for Western military interventionin Syria, General Mood told the BBC, It is fairly easy to use the military tool, because, when you launch the military tool in classical interventions, something will happen and there will be results.The problem is that the results are almost all the time different than the political results you were aiming for when you decided to launch it.So the other position, arguing that it is not the role of the international community, neither coalitions of the willing nor the U.N. Security Council for that matter, to change governments inside a country, is also a position that should be respected.

General Wesley Clark played his own deadly role as the supreme commander of NATOs illegal assault on what was left of the old Soviet surrogate regime of Yugoslavia in 1999.Then, ten days after the horrific crimes of September 11, 2001, newly retired General Clark dropped in at the Pentagon to find that the scheme Wolfowitz described to him in 1991 had become the Bush administrations grand strategy to exploit the war psychosis into which it was plunging the countryand the world.

Undersecretary Stephen Cambones notes from a meeting amid the ruins of the Pentagon on September 11th include orders from Secretary Rumsfeld to, Go massive. Sweep it all up. Things related and not.

A former colleague at the Pentagon showed Clark a list of seven countries besides Afghanistan where the U.S. planned to unleash regime change wars in the next five years: Iraq; Syria; Lebanon; Libya; Somalia; Sudan; and Iran.The five- to ten-year window of opportunity Wolfowitz described to Clark in 1991 had already passed.But instead of reevaluating a strategy that was illegal, untested and predictablydangerous to begin with, and now well past its sell-by date, the neocons were hell-bent on launching an ill-conceived blitzkrieg across the Middle East and neighboring regions, with no objectiveanalysis of the geopolitical consequences and no concern for the human cost.

Misery and Chaos

Fifteen years later, despite the catastrophic failure of illegalwars that have killed 2 million people and left only misery and chaos in their wake, the leaders of both major U.S.political parties seem determined to pursuethis military madnessto the bitter end whatever that end may be and however long the wars may last.

By framing their wars in terms of vague threats to America and bydemonizing foreign leaders, our own morally and legally bankruptleaders and the subservient U.S. corporate media are still trying to obscurethe obviousfact that we are the aggressor that has been threatening and attacking country after country in violation of the U.N. Charter and international law since 1999.

SoU.S. strategy hasinexorably escalatedfrom an unrealistic but limited goal of overthrowing eight relatively defenseless governments in and around the Middle East to risking nuclear war with Russia and/or China.U.S. post-Cold War triumphalism and hopelesslyunrealisticmilitary ambitions have revived the danger of World War III that even Paul Wolfowitz celebrated the passing of in 1991.

The U.S. has followed the well-worn path that has stymied aggressors throughout history, as the exceptionalist logic used to justify aggression in the first place demands that we keep doubling down on wars that we have less and lesshopeofwinning, squandering our national resources to spread violence and chaos far and wide across the world.

Russia has demonstrated that it once againhas both the militarymeans and the political will to block U.S. ambitions, as Wolfowitz put itin 1991.Hence Trumps vainhopes of a deal to buy Russia off.U.S. operations around islands in the South China Sea suggest a gradual escalation of threats and displays of forceagainst Chinarather than an assault on the Chinese mainland in the near future, although this could quickly spin out of control.

So, more or lessby default, Iran has moved back to the top of the U.S.s regime change target list, even though this requires basing a political case for an illegal war on the imaginary danger of non-existent weaponsfor the second time in 15 years.War against Iran would involve, from the outset, a massive bombing campaign against its military defenses, civilian infrastructure and nuclear facilities, killing tens of thousands of people and likely escalating into an even more catastrophic war than those in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria.

Gareth Porter believes that Trump will avoid war on Iran for the same reasons as Bush and Obama, because it would beunwinnable and because Iran has robust defenses that could inflict significant losses on U.S. warships and bases in the Persian Gulf.

On the other hand, Patrick Cockburn, one of the most experienced Western reporters in the Middle East, believes that we will attack Iran in one to two years because, after Trump fails to resolve any of the crises elsewhere in the region, the pressure of his failures will combine with the logic of escalating demonization and threats already under way in Washington to make war on Iran inevitable.

In this light, Rep. Hastingss bill is a critical brick in a wall that bipartisan hawks in Washington are building to close off any exit from the path to war with Iran. They believe that Obama let Iran slip out of their trap, and they are determined not to let that happen again.

Another brick in this wall is the recycled myth of Iran as the greatest state sponsor of terrorism. This is a glaring contradiction with the U.S. focus on ISIS as the worlds main terrorist threat.The states that have sponsored and fueled the rise of ISIS have been, not Iran, but Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the other Arab monarchies and Turkey, with critical training, weapons and logistical and diplomatic support for what has become ISIS from the U.S., U.K. and France.

Iran can only be a greater state sponsor of terrorism than the U.S. and its allies if Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, the Middle Eastern resistance movements to whom it provides various levels of support, pose more of a terrorist danger to the rest of the world than ISIS. No U.S. official has even tried to make that case, and it is hard to imagine the tortured reasoning it would involve.

Brinksmanship and Military Madness

The U.N. Charter wisely prohibits the threat as well as the use of force in international relations, because the threat of force so predictably leads to its use. And yet, post-Cold War U.S. doctrine quickly embraced the dangerous idea that U.S. diplomacy must be backed up by the threat of force.

Hillary Clinton has been a strong proponent of this ideasince the 1990sand has beenundeterred by either its illegality or its catastrophic results. As I wrote in an article on Clinton during the election campaign, this is illegalbrinksmanship, not legitimatediplomacy.

It takes a lot of sophisticated propaganda toconvinceeven Americans that a war machine that keeps threatening and attacking othercountries represents a commitment to global security,as President Obama claimed in his Nobel speech.Convincing the rest of the world is another matteragain, and people in other countries arenot so easily brainwashed.

Obamas hugely symbolic election victory and global charm offensive provided cover for continued U.S. aggression for eight moreyears, but Trump risks giving the game away by discarding the velvet glove and exposing the naked iron fist of U.S. militarism. A U.S. war on Iran could be the final straw.

Cassia Laham is theco-founder of POWIR (Peoples Opposition to War, Imperialism and Racism)and part of acoalition organizing demonstrations in South Floridaagainst many ofPresident Trumps policies. Cassia callsAlceeHastingss AUMFbill, a dangerous and desperate attempt to challenge the shift in power in the Middle East and the world. She noted that, Iran has risen up as a pivotal power player countering U.S. and Saudi influence in the region, and concluded, if the past is any indicator of the future, the end result of a war with Iran will be a large-scale war, high death tolls and the further weakening of U.S. power.

Whatevermisconceptions,interestsorambitions have prompted Alcee Hastings to threaten 80million people in Iran with a blank check for unlimited war, they cannot possibly outweigh the massive loss of life and unimaginable misery for which he will be responsible if Congress should pass H J Res 10and President Trump should act on it. The bill still has no co-sponsors, so let us hope thatit can be quarantined as anisolated case of extreme military madness,before it becomes an epidemic and unleashes yet another catastrophic war.

Nicolas J S Davies is the author of Blood On Our Hands: the American Invasion and Destruction of Iraq. He also wrote the chapters on Obama at War in Grading the 44th President: a Report Card on Barack Obamas First Term as a Progressive Leader.

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Democratic Ex-Dove Proposes War on Iran - Consortium News

U.S. Wrestlers Find They Have Passionate Fans in Iran – The New … – New York Times


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U.S. Wrestlers Find They Have Passionate Fans in Iran - The New ...
New York Times
The American Freestyle Wrestling team on Saturday in Tehran before returning to the United States. Credit Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times.

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U.S. Wrestlers Find They Have Passionate Fans in Iran - The New ... - New York Times

Iran rejects ‘unconstructive’ claims by Turkish FM – Press TV

Irans Foreign Ministry has dismissed as unconstructive Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu's recent anti-Iran claims, saying Turkeyand certain other "delusional" countries are responsiblefor instability and insecurity in the Middle East.

Those who have carried outmeddlesome, illegal and illegitimate measures, supportedterrorist groups and causedbloodshed and escalationof tensions and instability in the region cannot evade liabilityfor such moves by playing a blame game, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi said on Sunday.

They cannot free themselves from their self-imposed quagmire by leveling accusations against others, he added.

The Islamic Republic of Irans regional policy has always been and will be based on maintaining the stability and security of all countries and neighbors, the Iranian spokesperson said.

Qassemi emphasized that many fair governments and nations in the region and across the world have acknowledgedsuch a policy pursued by Iran and welcome it.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Sunday, the Turkish foreign minister criticized what he called an Iranian "sectarian policy" aimed at undermining Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, saying, "Turkey is very much against any kind of division, religious or sectarian.

Turkish minister's remarks came despite the fact that his country is widely known as a staunch supporter ofmilitants wreaking havoc in Syria, providing them with money and arms as well as free passage through Turkish soil to Syria.

Continued here:
Iran rejects 'unconstructive' claims by Turkish FM - Press TV

US senators consider sanctions against Iran for missile development – Reuters

MUNICH U.S. Republican senators plan to introduce legislation to impose further sanction on Iran, accusing it of violating U.N. Security Council resolutions by testing ballistic missiles and acting to "destabilize" the Middle East, a U.S. senator said Sunday.

"I think it is now time for the Congress to take Iran on directly in terms of what theyve done outside the nuclear program," Senator Lindsey Graham, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, told the Munich Security Conference.

Graham said he and other Republicans would introduce measures to hold Iran accountable for its actions.

Tensions between Tehran and Washington have risen since a Iranian ballistic missile test which prompted U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to impose sanctions on individuals and entities linked to the country's Revolutionary Guards.

"Iran is a bad actor in the greatest sense of the word when it comes to the region. To Iran, I say, if you want us to treat you differently then stop building missiles, test-firing them in defiance of U.N. resolution and writing 'Death to Israel' on the missile. That's a mixed message," Graham said.

Senator Christopher Murphy, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told the same panel there was nothing preventing Congress from imposing sanctions beyond those that were lifted as a result of the 2016 nuclear agreement with Iran.

Murphy, a Democrat, told the panel that he had backed the nuclear deal in the explicit understanding that it would not prevent Congress from taking actions against Iran outside the nuclear issue.

"There's going to be a conversation about what the proportional response is," Murphy said, referring to Iran's missile test. "But I don't necessarily think there's going to be partisan division over whether or not we have the ability as a Congress to speak on issues outside of the nuclear agreement."

Murphy said the United States needed to decide whether it wanted to take a broader role in the regional conflict.

"We have to make a decision whether we are going to get involved in the emerging proxy war in a bigger way than we are today, between Iran and Saudi," he said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Java Zarf told the conference earlier on Sunday that Iran did not respond well to sanctions or threats.

(Reporting by Andrea Shalal and John Irish. Editing by Jane Merriman)

BAGHDAD/SOUTH OF MOSUL, Iraq U.S.-backed Iraqi forces on Sunday launched a ground offensive to dislodge Islamic State militants from their remaining stronghold in Mosul, in the western part of the city, and put an end to their ambitions for territorial rule in Iraq.

KUALA LUMPUR Four North Korean suspects in the murder of the estranged half-brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un fled Malaysia on the day he was attacked at Kuala Lumpur airport and apparently killed by a fast-acting poison, police said on Sunday.

BEIRUT Syrian government forces fired rockets at a rebel-held area on Damascus's outskirts on Sunday, pressing an attack that began the day before and has killed up to 16 people, a medical worker and war monitors said.

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US senators consider sanctions against Iran for missile development - Reuters