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Hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough at its signing in July 2015, Irans nuclear agreement with leading members of the international communityformally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)has achieved some notable short-term successes, many in Irans favor. Most, not all, of Irans nuclear activities are either frozen or highly circumscribed. In exchange, Iran is reaping the benefit of receipt of billions of dollars in previously frozen assets as well as a return to international commerce where Europe and China, among others, are seeking to invigorate trade and investment with the theocratic regime. This will be a boon for Irans chronically mismanaged and struggling economy.

The bad news is that it is misleading to conclude that Irans nuclear ambitions have been shuttered or that those ambitions will no longer pose a threat to the security and stability of the Middle East or beyond. This is because the agreement has finite limits, ranging from 10 years to 15 years depending on the issue.

For the time being, Iran has incentives to abide by the agreements terms, beginning with its financial windfall and reintegration into the international community. None of that has lessened Irans fervor for supporting terrorism or the murderous regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

A recent report from the highly credible Institute for Science and International Security takes note of a statement from Ali Akbar Salehi, the director of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. According to the Institute report and quoting Salehi, Iran has the capability to initiate mass production of advanced centrifuges on short notice. Centrifuges are the machinery that enriches uranium and creates the fissile material needed to make a nuclear weapon.

While Iran may make the specious claim it has the right to do so in coming years, on practical grounds there should be no reason for Iran to devote resources to this activity if it does not intend, as it so claims, to pursue a nuclear weapons capability. Mass production of advanced centrifuges, if carried out, would give Iran a decided advantage if it wanted to shorten a rush to a nuclear weapon.

Similarly, Iran continues to develop its ballistic missile program, an element of its defense regime that was left unhindered in the nuclear negotiations except for the fact that existing United Nations sanctions on the missile program are to be lifted in about six years.

The capability to deliver nuclear weapons to targets is all important; Iran recognizes this requirement and makes no secret of its commitment to maintaining and advancing its program. At present, Iran has ballistic missiles capable of attacking targets throughout the Middle East and probably beyond.

In addition, Iran also continues to defy repeated international requests to come clean on suspect activities at the Parchin military facility where suspicions for years have been high that Iran carried out high explosives testing that can only be useful in developing a nuclear weapon.

Much of the international community would be pleased to see these and related questions not resurface but they are inconvenient truths that if left unaddressed may well lead to a future crisis.

The mechanism to take up these issues is the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency. Most nations around the globe are IAEA members and they merit a clear understanding of Irans activities, in no small measure to convince them that the international community can deal with Iran successfully and that Iranian actions can be monitored credibly.

That conclusion cannot be reached with credibility until much more is known about the pace and scope of Irans nuclear and missile activities. Until those questions are resolved it is fair to conclude that Irans actions since the signing of the JCPOA are troubling and raise new suspicions.

Jack Caravelli served on the White House National Security Council staff from 1999-2000.Sebastian Maier is an associate with the London-based corporate intelligence firm GMTL.

The views expressed by contributors are their own and are not the views of The Hill.

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Has Iran laid the groundwork to develop nuclear weapons on a moment's notice? - The Hill (blog)

However, there are serious concerns being expressed in the Pentagon that the US could be dragged into a wider regional conflict, not just with Syria but Iran.

Officials are privately worried that Iran's ongoing efforts to build an area of control stretching from Tehran to Beirut will eventually expand the US war by posing a security threat to US troops operating in southern Syria near the border with Iraq and Jordan.

In the last few weeks US forces have had to respond to Iranian backed Shia militias challenging US outposts and a garrison at At Tanf. The US military has recently expanded its presence in the area establishing several small outposts called "operating areas." These small bases are an addition to the main garrison at At Tanf where US troops are training local tribes to fight ISIS.

This is all adding to a growing sense of concern that the war against ISIS in southern Syria might inevitably escalate to see the US fighting the Syrian regime as well as Iranian-backed forces.

The stated mission of the US is to expand the presence of American troops available to train local forces to fight ISIS. At the same time the US is backing the effort to defeat ISIS in Raqqa in the north, whilst also focusing on the Euphrates River Valley as a key target after ISIS leaders fled the city.

To date, encounters with Assad regime forces and the Iranian-backed militias have been characterized as self-defense. Defense officials say it would take a major policy decision from President Donald Trump to expand the mission to challenge them, but the worry is more confrontations are becoming inevitable.

US military officials believe the Iranian-backed militias as well as Assad regime forces are attempting to move deeper into eastern Syria. The US also believes Assad regime forces are pushing to reach the city of Deir Ezzor.

At the same time, Iranian militias are trying to open a transit route across southern Syria as part of what the Pentagon is informally calling a new "Shia crescent" of influence from Iran all the way to the Mediterranean. If that effort succeeds it would create a route for Iran to ship weapons and supplies to Hezbollah and other terror groups. US officials believe this would pose a new threat to both Israel and Jordan.

But the forces the US is training in southern Syria near where militias are operating are also likely to head east towards the Euphrates River Valley between Deir Ezzor and Mayadin. Intelligence reports have indicated that several senior ISIS operatives have fled Raqqa and moved into the valley between the two towns.

The US believes the area is becoming an increasingly important to ISIS with bomb making operations possibly centered there.

US officials say three top ISIS officials have been killed by the coalition around Mayadin. That includes the May 31 airstrike that killed Turki Al Bin'ali, the chief cleric of ISIS. In a news release announcing his death, the Pentagon called him a "close confidant of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi" and a US official confirmed to CNN that Bin'ali moved in the highest circle of the organization. He was also linked to efforts to recruit foreign fighters and launch attacks "around the world."

The US also believes ISIS is continuing to work on developing both higher yield and miniaturized explosives that have been used on drones, as well as mustard agents in the Mayadin area.

As ISIS is forced into retreat, the potential flash points for confrontation between US-backed forces, Assad regime troops and Iranian militias are only likely to increase. This means that as the Trump administration weighs up whether to send more troops into Afghanistan, it is also going to have to make some tough decisions on the war against ISIS if the US wants to avoid being dragged into a wider regional war.

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US risks being dragged into regional war with Iran in Syria - CNN International

CIA Director Mike Pompeo said Saturday that US national security is threatened by Iran, which he described as the worlds largest state sponsor of terror.

Today, we find it with enormous influence, influence that far outstrips where it was six or seven years ago, Pompeo told MSNBC in an interview that aired Saturday. Whether its the influence they have over the government in Baghdad, whether its the increasing strength of Hezbollah and Lebanon, their work alongside the Houthis in Iran, the Iraqi Shias that are fighting along now the border in Syria certainly the Shia forces that are engaged in Syria. Iran is everywhere throughout the Middle East.

He also said North Korea poses a very real danger to US national security.

I hardly ever escape a day at the White House without the president asking me about North Korea and how it is that the United States is responding to that threat. Its very much at the top of his mind, Pompeo said, adding that the North Koreans are ever-closer to having the capacity to hold America at risk with a nuclear weapon.

He said he thinks disclosure of Americas secret intelligence is on the rise, fueled partly by the worship of leakers like Edward Snowden.

In some ways, I do think its accelerated, said Pompeo, a former Republican congressman from Kansas. I think there is a phenomenon, the worship of Edward Snowden, and those who steal American secrets for the purpose of self-aggrandizement or money or for whatever their motivation may be, does seem to be on the increase.

Pompeo said the United States needs to redouble its efforts to stem leaks of classified information.

Its tough. You now have not only nation states trying to steal our stuff, but non-state, hostile intelligence services, well-funded folks like WikiLeaks, out there trying to steal American secrets for the sole purpose of undermining the United States and democracy, he said.

Besides Snowden, who leaked documents revealing extensive US government surveillance, WikiLeaks recently released nearly 8,000 documents that it says reveal secrets about the CIAs cyberespionage tools for breaking into computers. WikiLeaks previously published 250,000 State Department cables and embarrassed the U.S. military with hundreds of thousands of logs from Iraq and Afghanistan.

There are several other recent cases, including Chelsea Manning, the Army private formerly known as Bradley Manning. She was convicted in a 2013 court-martial of leaking more than 700,000 secret military and State Department documents to WikiLeaks while working as an intelligence analyst in Iraq. Manning said she leaked the documents to raise awareness about the wars impact on innocent civilians.

Last year, former NSA contractor Harold Thomas Martin III, 51, of Glen Burnie, Maryland, was accused of removing highly classified information, storing it in an unlocked shed and in his car and home. Court documents say investigators seized, conservatively, 50 terabytes of information, or enough to fill roughly 200 laptop computers.

Pompeo said the Trump administration is focused on stopping leaks of any kind from any agency and pursuing perpetrators. I think well have some successes both on the deterrence side that is stopping them from happening as well as on punishing those who we catch who have done it, Pompeo said.

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CIA chief: Iran, North Korea threaten US national security - The Times of Israel

Thousands of Iranians participated Friday in annual anti-Israel rallies, a heavily stage-managed show of support for the Palestinian territories that included displays of ballistic missiles.

The rallies on Quds Day, after an ancient Arabic name for Jerusalem, included the usual signs condemning Israel and the United States along with placards denouncing Saudi Arabia, its Sunni Muslim rival.

Protesters were bused into Tehran, the capital, or rode on subway trains whose fares were temporarily lifted. Demonstrators burned Israeli and American flags while others posed for selfies in front of yellow-painted missiles including the Zolfaghar, the type Iran fired this week at alleged Islamic State targets in Syria.

Irans Revolutionary Guard paramilitary force said it fired six Zolfaghar missiles on Sunday on the city of Deir el-Zour, one of Islamic States last remaining strongholds in Syria. Iran supports Syrian President Bashar Assad and is in an escalating confrontation with Saudi Arabia, which backs anti-Assad rebels.

The missile strikes were Irans first in more than a decade, according to reports, and came in response to attacks this month on the parliament building and a shrine in Tehran that were blamed on Islamic State militants.

Speaking at the Friday prayer ceremony at Tehran University following the march, firebrand clergyman Ahmad Khatami said that Iran would continue its missile program despite warnings from the Trump administration.

The missiles shot at Daesh were mid-range you can imagine the power of our long-range missile, Khatami said, using an Arabic acronym for Islamic State.

AFP/Getty Images

Ballistic missiles are displayed during a rally marking Quds Day in Tehran.

Ballistic missiles are displayed during a rally marking Quds Day in Tehran. (AFP/Getty Images)

The annual protests held on the last Friday of the fasting month of Ramadan are organized by Irans hard-line Shiite Muslim establishment as a show of support for the Palestinian people. Iran does not recognize Israel and backs militant groups, including Hamas and Hezbollah, that oppose the Jewish state.

President Hassan Rouhani and other top officials attended the rallies while state television repeatedly played a song whose lyrics proclaimed that Israel will be wiped out.

Standing in the shade on a warm morning, Zia Zahedi, a white-turbaned clergyman, said protesters were showing their support as Muslims for any oppressed people, wherever they live.

We are here to express our hatred against Saudi Arabia, Israel and America, said Zahedi, 57. The Saudi Arabian regime is not Muslim they are allies of Israel.

Sadegh Sofiyani ,a retired teacher, said protesters were soldiers of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said in 2015 that Israel would cease to exist in 25 years.

We are ready to shed our last drop of blood in any war against Israel, or in defending holy shrines in Syria and Iraq against Daesh, no matter the cost, Sofiyani said.

Special correspondent Mostaghim reported from Tehran and Times staff writer Bengali from Mumbai, India.

shashank.bengali@latimes.com

Follow @SBengali on Twitter

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Iran's anti-Israel rallies, a tradition during Ramadan, this year include ballistic missiles - Los Angeles Times

A Qatar semi-government human rights body said the demands were a violation of human rights conventions and should not be accepted by Qatar.

Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani had said on Monday that Qatar would not negotiate with the four states until economic, diplomatic and travel ties cut this month were restored.

The countries that imposed the sanctions accuse Qatar of funding terrorism, fomenting regional unrest and drawing too close to their enemy Iran. Qatar rejects those accusations and says it is being punished for straying from its neighbors' backing for authoritarian hereditary and military rulers.

The uncompromising demands leave little prospect for a quick end to the biggest diplomatic crisis for years between Sunni Arab Gulf states, regional analysts said.

"The demands are so aggressive that it makes it close to impossible to currently see a resolution of that conflict," said Olivier Jakob, a strategist at Switzerland-based oil consultancy Petromatrix.

Ibrahim Fraihat, Conflict Resolution Professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, forecast a prolonged stand-off.

Qatar will reject the demands as a "non-starter", he said, and its neighbors had already escalated as far as they were likely to go. "Military action remains unlikely at the moment so the outcome after the deadline would be a political stalemate ..."

Washington, which is a close military ally of countries on both sides of the dispute, has called for a resolution. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Qatar's neighbors should make their demands "reasonable and actionable".

TEN DAYS TO COMPLY

An official from one of the four nations, who gave details of the demands on condition of anonymity, told Reuters the offer would be "void" unless Qatar complied within 10 days.

The UAE has said sanctions could last for years. Qatar, the world's richest country per capita, says the sanctions amount to a "blockade", but it has ample reserves to weather the storm.

The dispute is a big test for the United States, which has a large base in Qatar housing the headquarters of its Middle East air power and 11,000 troops.

President Donald Trump has backed the sanctions, even as his Defense and State departments have tried to remain neutral, resulting in mixed signals. Trump called Qatar a "funder of terrorism at a very high level", only for his Pentagon to approve selling it $12 billion of warplanes five days later.

The most powerful country in the region to back the Qatari side in the dispute has been Turkey, whose President Tayyip Erdogan has his roots in an Islamist political party similar to movements that Qatar has backed in the region. Days after the sanctions were imposed, Turkey rushed through legislation to send more troops to its base in Qatar as a sign of support.

Defence Minister Fikri Isik rejected the demand to close the base, saying it would represent interference in Ankara's relations with Doha. Instead, Turkey might bolster its presence.

"Strengthening the Turkish base would be a positive step in terms of the Gulf's security," he said. "Re-evaluating the base agreement with Qatar is not on our agenda."

Qatar has used its vast wealth over the past decade to exert influence abroad, backing factions in civil wars and revolts across the Middle East. It infuriated Egypt's present rulers and Saudi Arabia by backing a Muslim Brotherhood government in Cairo that ruled for a year until it was deposed by the army in 2013.

Qatar's state-funded satellite broadcaster Al Jazeera became hugely popular across the Middle East, but has long infuriated Arab governments used to exercising firm control over the media in their countries. Jazeera hit back at the closure order, calling it "nothing but an attempt to silence the freedom of expression in the region".

STOP INTERFERING

The demands, handed to Qatar by mediator Kuwait, tell Qatar to stop interfering in the four nations' domestic and foreign affairs and refrain from giving Qatari nationality to their citizens, the official from one of the sanctioning states said.

They also include severing ties with the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State, al Qaeda, Hezbollah, and Jabhat Fateh al Sham, formerly al Qaeda's branch in Syria, and the surrender of all designated terrorists on Qatari territory. Qatar denies it has relationships with terrorist groups or shelters terrorists.

It was ordered to scale down diplomatic relations with Iran, limit its commercial ties and expel members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. Qatar denies they are there.

The sanctioning countries demanded Qatar pay them reparations for any damage or costs incurred due to Qatari policies. Compliance with the demands would be monitored, with monthly reports in the first year, then every three months the next year, then annually for 10 years, the official said.

Although Reuters was told about the contents of the ultimatum by an official from one of the sanctioning countries, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash accused Qatar of leaking the demands.

"There is a price for the years of plotting and there is a price to return to the neighborhood," Gargash said on Twitter. "The leak (of demands) seeks to derail mediation."

Qataris who spoke to Reuters described the demands as unreasonable, particularly the closure of Jazeera, which millions of Arabs see as an important outlet for voices willing to challenge the region's authoritarian rulers, but which neighboring governments call a conduit for Islamist propaganda.

"Imagine another country demanding that CNN be closed," 40-year-old Haseeb Mansour, who works for telecom operator Ooredoo, said.

"A LOT ON THE LIST"

Abdullah al-Muhanadi, a retired public sector worker shopping for groceries in Doha on Friday morning, said the boycott must be lifted before negotiations to resolve the dispute could start.

"There's a lot on the list that is simply not true or unreasonable, so how can we comply?" he said. "There are no IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) elements in Qatar and the agreement with Turkey is a long-standing diplomatic agreement so we cannot ask them to leave."

Qatar has only 300,000 citizens enjoying the riches produced by the world's largest exports of liquefied natural gas. The rest of its 2.7 million people are foreign migrant workers, mostly manual laborers employed on vast construction projects that have crowned the tiny desert peninsula with skyscrapers as well as stadiums for the 2022 soccer world cup.

The sanctions have disrupted its main routes to import goods by land from Saudi Arabia and by sea from big container ships docked in the United Arab Emirates. But it so far has avoided economic collapse by quickly finding alternative routes, and it says its huge financial reserves will meet any challenges.

Qatar says the sanctions have also brought personal hardship for its citizens who live in neighboring countries or have relatives there. The countries that imposed the sanctions gave Qataris two weeks to leave, which expired on Monday.

(Additional reporting by Tom Finn and Tom Arnold in Doha, and Daren Butler in Istanbul; Writing by Rania El Gamal and Peter Millership; editing by Peter Graff and Jonathan Oatis)

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Arab States Issue Ultimatum to Qatar: Close Jazeera, Curb Ties With Iran - New York Times