Archive for the ‘Iran’ Category

Trump administration ‘officially putting Iran on notice’, says Michael Flynn – The Guardian

The Trump administration has said it was officially putting Iran on notice in reaction to an Iranian missile test and an attack on a Saudi warship by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen but gave no details about how Washington intended to respond.

The threat was made on Wednesday by the national security adviser, Michael Flynn, in his first public statement since taking office.

Speaking in the White House briefing room, Flynn said a missile launch on Sunday and a Houthi attack on a Saudi frigate on Monday underlined Irans destabilizing behavior across the Middle East..

Flynn did not specify how the new administration would respond. Asked for clarification, the White House spokesman, Sean Spicer, said the president wanted to make sure the Iranians understood we are not going to sit by and not act on their actions.

At a White House briefing, senior administration officials repeatedly refused to rule out any options for a US response, including military intervention.

There are a large number of options available to the administration, one senior official said. Were going to take appropriate action.

Asked if measures under consideration included a military option, the official replied: We are considering a whole range of options.

The official declined to say whether the White House had sent a message to Tehran putting it on notice.

We are in the second week. We do not want to be premature or rash or take any action that would foreclose options or unnecessarily contribute to a negative response.

The announcement was not accompanied by any change in the US military stance in the region, nor any immediate additional deployments.

We saw the statement as well, said a spokesman for US central command, which runs operations in the Middle East. This is still at the policy level, and we are waiting for something to come down the line. We have not been asked to change anything operationally in the region.

The Pentagon was informed before the announcement and the defense secretary, James Mattis, prevailed upon Flynn to soften his language about Iran from an earlier version. At the time of the Flynns statement, Mattis was en route to Asia for an official visit to Japan and South Korea.

Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at the International Crisis Group in Washington, said: Its either an empty threat or a clear statement of intent to go to war with Iran. Both are reckless and dangerous ... In an attempt to look strong, the administration could stumble into a war that would make the Afghan and Iraqi conflicts look like a walk in the park.

Iran reacted defiantly on Thursday, saying it would continue its self-defence activities. Ali Akbar Velayati, the senior foreign policy adviser to the countrys supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameni, said Tehran would not seek permission from any country to defend itself.

It is not the first time that an inexperienced person in the US has threatened us, he said, referring to Trump during a meeting in Tehran.

Trump would realise over the time that such hollow bragging would only discredit him in the eyes of the general public, Velayi added. The US was defeated even in countries less powerful than us.

Irans president, Hassan Rouhani, called Trump a political novice and said it will cost the US a lot while it waits for its president to learn what is happening in the world.

During the election campaign, the Trump team repeatedly signaled that it would take a much tougher line towards Tehran. Both Flynn and Mattis have long portrayed Iran as a serious strategic threat to US interests.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Pentagon confirmed that Mattis had spoken by phone to his Saudi counterpart, Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

According to the defense department account, the conversation reaffirmed the importance of the US-Saudi Arabia strategic relationship, particularly to countering new and emerging security challenges in the Middle East.

According to the Saudi version, the discussion was more pointedly aimed at Iran, and both men expressed their full rejection of the suspicious activities and interventions by the Iranian regime and its agents.

Flynn used his appearance at the daily White House press briefing to criticize the Obama administration, which he claimed had failed to respond adequately to Tehrans malign actions including weapons transfers, support for terrorism, and other violations of international norms.

He noted that Donald Trump had severely criticized the various agreements the previous administration and the UN made with Iran as being weak and ineffective. It was an apparent reference to the nuclear deal the US and five other major powers made in July 2015, which was formalized in a UN security council resolution, under which Iran drastically reduced its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief.

The UN resolution endorsing the deal did not impose a complete prohibition on Iranian missile tests, but called on Tehran not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology.

Earlier on Wednesday, Iran confirmed it had tested carried out a missile test on Sunday. Defence minister Hossein Dehghan did not describe the weapon, but insisted that the test was within its rights The recent test was in line with our plans and we will not allow foreigners to interfere in our defence affairs, he told Tasnim news agency. The test did not violate the nuclear deal or [UN] Resolution 2231.

Flynn said: Instead of being thankful to the United States for these agreements, Iran is now feeling emboldened ... As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice.

During his tenure as the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Flynn was reported by the New York Times to have told his subordinates he had concluded that Iran was behind the 2012 terrorist attack on the US diplomatic compound in Benghazi in Libya, and ordered them to find evidence to prove it.

The DIA found no evidence of any Iranian connection to the attack, which was carried out by a Sunni extremist group, Ansar al-Sharia.

Iran is a Shia-run state, which sees Sunni militancy as a serious threat.

The civil war in Yemen pits a Saudi-led coalition backing President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi against supporters of the previous president Ali Abdullah Saleh, and ethnic Houthi forces, who receive some backing from Iran, but are not generally thought to be completely under Tehrans control.

About 10,000 people have been killed and both sides have been accused of war crimes, but Saudi-led air strikes have been blamed by human rights groups for the bulk of civilians casualties, as they have hit hospitals, schools and other non-military targets. The coalition is also enforcing a naval blockade of rebel-held areas.

In its last weeks, the Obama administration began limiting arms sales to Saudi Arabia out of concern over civilian casualties.

The threat, along with the administrations refugee ban, represent major departures from previous US foreign policy, and came from the White House before the administrations designated secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, had been confirmed.

Tillerson was confirmed in the Senate just over an hour after Flynns threat but he will inherit a state department in turmoil, with a growing wave of internal resistance against the executive order suspending arrivals from seven predominantly Muslim countries. The state department has also been the main institutional backer of the Iran nuclear deal.

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Trump administration 'officially putting Iran on notice', says Michael Flynn - The Guardian

Taunts and threats mark first exchanges between US and Iran in the Trump era – Washington Post

The United States and Iran traded threats Thursday as both nations sought new footing in a power struggle that could jeopardize the landmark international nuclear accord that President Trump has called the worst deal ever negotiated.

The Trump administration was preparing additional economic penalties on Iran related to the countrys recent ballistic missile test, with an announcement expected as soon as Friday, according to a U.S. official.

When asked whether his administrations tough new posture could mean a military strike, Trump answered, Nothings off the table.

That followed the White House broadside Wednesday in which national security adviser Michael Flynn warned that Iran is on notice over the test launch. He also cited Irans support of rebels seeking to overthrow a U.S.-backed government in Yemen.

This is not the first time that an inexperienced person has threatened Iran, Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Irans supreme leader, was quoted by Reuters as saying Thursday. Iran does not need permission from any country to defend itself.

Speaking to reporters, Velayati brushed off what he called Trumps baseless ranting and pledged that missile tests would continue as Iran sees fit.

The exchange surrounding the missile test is the most substantive between the two countries since Trump took office two weeks ago and suggests that each nation is willing to escalate tension at the outset.

The posturing on the U.S. side appears to be mostly an attempt to seize the upper hand in what Trump officials have said will be a far tougher, less forgiving relationship with Tehran. Flynn directly blamed Barack Obamas administration for emboldening Iranian aggression and regional ambitions, and Trump has ridiculed his predecessor for seeking more cordial, if wary, relations.

Trump is under political pressure to make good on campaign pledges to get tough on Iran, while Iran has a history of testing the resolve of new U.S. leaders. The Iranian leadership also faces domestic political pressures with a presidential election due this spring.

It will take him a long time and will cost the United States a lot, until he learns what is happening in the world, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said in a televised address Wednesday, in which he also accused Trump of discrimination and recklessness.

Rouhani, considered a cautious political reformer, presided over the partial warming of the three-decade freeze in U.S.-Iranian relations under Obama.

Rouhani said that Trump, in temporarily halting travel to the United States from Iran and six other Muslim-majority nations, is trampling on all international principles and commitments.

Iran had earlier vowed reciprocal measures for the ban, and the missile launch Sunday was widely seen as a test of the new U.S. administration.

It is not clear whether the launch violates a U.N. Security Council edict, but the Trump administration maintains that it does. The United States called an emergency Security Council review of what it called a provocative breach.

Clearly, we wanted to make sure that Iran understood that they are on notice this is not going unresponded to, White House press secretary Sean Spicer said.

White House officials have refused to clarify the on notice statement either on record or anonymously, but it could indicate additional economic sanctions, military repositioning or the first moves to undermine the nuclear accord that the Obama administration counted as a signature foreign policy accomplishment.

Iran experts in the United States have said the most likely initial sanctions would probably mirror those Obama applied last year to Iranian companies and individuals that Washington accused of involvement in the countrys ballistic missile program.

Most Republican senators assumed that sanctions are what Flynn had in mind from his comments Wednesday.

We should stop the crap. I think I know what he means. ... More sanctions, said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.).

The new sanctions were first reported by Reuters.

House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) said Thursday that he is in favor of new sanctions on Iran. Legislation is already in the works, but Republicans would need some Democratic support to reimpose penalties.

I would be in favor of additional sanctions on Iran, Ryan told reporters. Id like to put as much toothpaste back in the tube as possible. I think the last administration appeased Iran far too much.

Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the new administrations view of Iran is informed by much more than deep skepticism about the nuclear deal and fear over Irans potential threat to Israel.

For Trumps senior national security brain trust, including Flynn, [Defense Secretary Jim] Mattis and key NSC staff, the enmity toward Iran is very personal, Sadjadpour said. They hold Tehran directly responsible for hundreds of U.S. military deaths in Iraq.

As a Marine general, Mattis was a commander in Iraq and later head of the military region responsible for both the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Trump reiterated on Twitter on Thursday that Iran is formally PUT ON NOTICE for firing a ballistic missile. Should have been thankful for the terrible deal the U.S. made with them!

Perhaps for emphasis, Trump followed that with a tweet specifically about the nuclear deal.

Iran was on its last legs and ready to collapse until the U.S. came along and gave it a life-line in the form of the Iran Deal: $150billion, he wrote.

Most experts place the amount Iran recouped in frozen assets closer to $100billion.

There is little chance that Trump will immediately rip up the 2015 deal designed to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Trump has not set out any plan in detail, but he has spoken of strengthening enforcement of the deal and improving on it. The United States would need the agreement of the other signers, including Russia and China, to renegotiate it.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was critical of the deal during his confirmation hearing last month but said it could be improved.

A U.S. official who briefed reporters after Flynns announcement Wednesday said the new administration is keeping potential retaliatory actions strictly separate from the nuclear deal, although U.S. officials acknowledge that anything that affects the U.S.-Iran relationship has implications for the future of the pact.

Few congressional Republicans are demanding an outright rejection of the nuclear accord, either, and say they are working with the new administration to tighten enforcement and raise the stakes for Iran for any violations. U.S. allies including Saudi Arabia and Israel, which worked to thwart the deal, now have an interest in keeping it in place for fear of the instability that could result from abandoning it.

The 2015 deal lifted international trade and other restrictions on Iran related to its nuclear program in exchange for a halt in the most troublesome aspects of Iranian nuclear development. Iran claims it is not seeking a nuclear weapon.

The deal left in place separate U.S. sanctions that could now be expanded or tightened.

The risk analysis and policy organization Eurasia Group assesses a 60percent probability that the deal survives but said in a memo Thursday that there is now initial downward pressure on that number.

Trump is unlikely to tear up the deal and shoulder the full wrath of the international community, the memo said. Trump will walk a fine line, and probably try to keep the deal intact.

Erin Cunningham in Istanbul and Karoun Demirjian in Washington contributed to this report.

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Taunts and threats mark first exchanges between US and Iran in the Trump era - Washington Post

Analysis: Trump Turns Attention to Yemen, but Is Looking at Iran – NBCNews.com

Yemenis search under the rubble of damaged houses following reported Saudi-led coalition airstrikes on the outskirts of Sanaa, Yemen, on Wednesday. MOHAMMED HUWAIS / AFP - Getty Images

Michael Stephens, a research fellow for Middle East studies at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, cautioned against over-emphasizing Iran's role in Yemen in the way the Saudis have traditionally done.

He said that while a "proxy battle" is an aspect of it of the war Saudis see their military involvement as a way to stop Iran from exploiting instability in their poorer neighbor "if you look at Yemen on the list of Iranian priorities it is really low."

During the campaign, Trump stuck to a hardline approach on Iran, and called the 2015 multinational plan to lift economic sanctions in exchange for Tehran's promise not to develop nuclear weapons "the worst deal ever negotiated."

Trump also included Iran on a

On Wednesday, Flynn underlined Trump's disapproval of the President Barack Obama agreements with Iran as "weak and ineffective."

He delivered his remarks in a surprise appearance at the daily White House press briefing. In addition to the ballistic missile tests, Flynn cited other examples of what he called Iran's "destabilizing behavior across the Middle East" a likely reference to its influence in Syria, Iraq and with Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.

U.N. resolutions currently do not prohibit Tehran from conducting such missile tests but

The Trump White House has not accused Tehran of breaching that resolution, but alleges it is acting "in defiance" of it.

Flynn suggested that the new administration would take a harder line on Iran in the wake of the missile test.

"Instead of being thankful to the United States for these agreements, Iran is now feeling emboldened," Flynn said, an apparent reference to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.

While it isn't clear what exactly this means, the new administration's pronouncement represents a sharp escalation in the rhetoric coming out of Washington.

If the desired effect was to get Iran to back down, the White House failed at least in the short term.

"Iran will continue to test its capabilities in ballistic missiles and Iran will not ask any country for permission in defending itself,"

But RUSI's Stephens pointed out that Iran's involvement in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq is much deeper than in Yemen.

"The concrete is drying pretty quickly on Iran's footprint across the region," he added.

A guard sits on the rubble of the house of Brig. Fouad al-Emad, an army commander loyal to the Houthis, after airstrikes destroyed it in Sanaa, Yemen, on June 15, 2015. Khaled Abdullah / Reuters

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Analysis: Trump Turns Attention to Yemen, but Is Looking at Iran - NBCNews.com

Oil edges up on threat of US issuing new Iran sanctions – Reuters

SINGAPORE/TOKYO Oil prices edged up on Friday on news that U.S. President Donald Trump could be set to impose new sanctions on multiple Iranian entities, raising geopolitical tensions between the two nations.

Comments by Russian energy minister Alexander Novak that oil producers had cut their output in accordance with a pact agreed in December also helped support prices, analysts said.

Reuters reported on Thursday that Trump's administration is prepared to roll out new measures against more than two dozen Iranian targets following Tehran's ballistic missile test, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Brent crude futures had risen 45 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $57.01 a barrel by 0750 GMT (02:50 a.m. ET), after settling down 24 cents at $56.56 in the previous session. Brent is set to gain 2.6 percent for the week.

Front month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 48 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $54.02 a barrel, after ending Thursday down 34 cents. For the week, the contract is up a little over 1 percent.

Moves by the U.S. to impose new sanctions on Iran is "something at the back of short-term traders' minds," said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at Sydney's CMC Markets.

"It's on the risk radar more than it otherwise might have been," he said.

The sources, who had knowledge of the administration's plans, said the package of sanctions was formulated in a way that would not violate the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

Supply concerns were also raised when Russia's energy minister said global oil output was cut by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) last month as part of the deal last year between OPEC and other producers.

"Oil markets have been supported by OPEC and as long as things hold people will look for evidence output curbs have chiseled away at inventories," Spooner said.

Novak also said Russian companies may cut oil production quicker than had been initially agreed with OPEC and that he expected the market to rebalance by the middle of this year.

Oil prices have stabilized about 15 percent higher than they were before OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed in December to curb output, National Australia Bank said in a note on Friday.

"We now expect oil prices to average around the mid to high $50s in Q1 and Q2, before reaching the low $60s by end-2017 and stabilizing at around those levels in 2018," the bank said.

Brent prices could also come under pressure due to refinery maintenance in Europe and Asia in the first half of this year creating a situation where crude exports remain high while crude demand weakens, energy consultancy BMI Research said in a report on Friday.

(Reporting by Osamu Tsukimori and Keith Wallis; Editing by Tom Hogue and Christian Schmollinger)

HOUSTON/CALGARY Canadian and European oil companies will find themselves at a competitive disadvantage to their American rivals if U.S. lawmakers scrap tighter transparency requirements on the industry, as expected, according to company executives, legal experts and trade groups.

CHICAGO Soybean shippers in the United States - the worlds leading supplier between September and March - have been extremely busy pushing out record volumes of the oilseed overseas.

LONDON Last year zinc was the star performer among the major base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME).

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Oil edges up on threat of US issuing new Iran sanctions - Reuters

White House Puts Iran ‘On Notice’ for Missile Test – NBCNews.com

Tension between the Trump administration and Iran continued to rise Wednesday when National Security Adviser Michael Flynn said the White House was putting Tehran "on notice," an apparent threat of retaliation for a recent ballistic missile test.

Flynn said in a statement that the launch defied a U.N. Security Council resolution aimed at keeping Iran from developing nuclear-armed missiles.

Related: Iran Test-Fires Medium Range Ballistic Missile: U.S. Officials

Flynn, a retired Army general and former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, delivered his remarks in a surprise appearance at the daily White House press briefing. He cited other examples of what he called Iran's "destabilizing behavior across the Middle East," including reported attacks on U.S. allies by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

He pointed out President Trump's disapproval of a multinational agreement with Iran that lifts economic sanctions in exchange for a promise not to develop nuclear weapons.

"Instead of being thankful to the United States for these agreements, Iran is now feeling emboldened," Flynn said. "As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice."

What exactly that means is unclear.

Flynn did not take questions after delivering his warning. White House spokesman Sean Spicer declined to elaborate in an afternoon press briefing.

It could mean the Trump administration is seeking ways to undo the nuclear deal.

Last week, Trump included Iran on a list of seven majority-Muslim countries whose citizens would be temporarily banned from entering the United States.

Iran used to be prohibited from test-firing ballistic missiles under previous U.N. resolutions. However, these were superseded by a new resolution passed alongside the nuclear deal.

This only "called upon" Iran not to test-fire missiles that could be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Critics of the deal say this wording is effectively a loophole meaning the missile-testing restrictions are not obligatory.

The government in Tehran says that because it doesn't have a nuclear-weapons program, its missile tests are not violations of this clause.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif didn't confirm or deny the launch during a press conference Tuesday but said, "The missiles aren't part of the nuclear accords," Reuters reported. "Iran will never use missiles produced in Iran to attack any other country."

Flynn's remarks Wednesday followed assertions Tuesday by Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, that the Trump administration would not "show a blind eye" to Iran's actions.

"We're gonna act, we're gonna be strong, we're gonna be loud and we're gonna do whatever it takes to protect the American people and the people across the world, because that's what the goal is supposed to be," she said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement that he planned to press Trump to renew sanctions against Iran and "take care of this failed nuclear agreement."

He added, "Iran's aggression must not go unanswered."

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White House Puts Iran 'On Notice' for Missile Test - NBCNews.com