Archive for the ‘Iran’ Category

Professor Gives View on Iran’s Politics – Valley News

Hanover Misagh Parsa, a professor of sociology at Dartmouth College, outlined the roots of a deep discord between the Iranian people and their Islamist government and pointed to possible outcomes during a talk Tuesday afternoon at the Haldeman Center.

The discussion came within days of a convincing victory from Hassan Rouhani, a moderate reformer, in the countrys presidential election and also coincides with the publication of Parsas latest book, Democracy in Iran: Why It Failed and How It Might Succeed.

Parsa opened with a video that might give democratizers cause for hope: footage of swarms of Iranians celebrating Rouhani in the streets, dancing to thumping music forbidden by Islamic clerics with some women waving their head scarves in the air.

But he almost immediately tempered that optimism, noting that the countrys supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,clerics and the military hold most of the power. To achieve democratic rule, Parsa said, another revolution will have to finish what began with the 1979 ouster of the autocratic shah.

Its highly unlikely for Iran to democratize through reform, Parsa said, given that reformers have to work within the existing structures of power. And so instead its likely that Iran will need to go through another revolutionary transformation.

The Islamic regime has been at odds with the people since the beginning, according to Parsa. The first supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, promised democratic reforms early on, giving no hint to the Iranian public that he intended to establish a religious government.

The people did not ask for an Islamic theocracy, Parsa said. ... That was not part of the deal.

Instead they gave them something no one was interested in, he said, referring to the social and cultural restrictions imposed by Islamic leaders: restrictions on the dress and behavior of women, for instance, and bans on drinking and music.

Parsa ticked off year after year since 1979 in which massive protests against the regime were followed by brutal repression, including thousands of executions an indication, he said, that the divide between a religious government and a more secular populace is only growing deeper.

The numbers of conservative clergy in the countrys parliament, for example, have fallen at a shocking rate, he said decreasing from 60.7 percent of all members in 1980 to 5.5 percent in 2016.

Gene Garthwaite, a professor emeritus of history who gave remarks afterward, bolstered that point, saying religion in Iran has become way overemphasized for Westerners as Iranians grow increasingly cynical about it.

During a recent trip to the Middle East, Garthwaite found that mosques in Istanbul were full of worshippers, he said, whereas in Iran, theyre all empty. Thats one of the biggest shocks.

Parsa said the regime had failed to deliver on its promises to the people in other ways especially economically. Khomeini initially pledged to reduce inequality and help the poor, but after seizing power he and his allies took the assets of the royal family and their associates.

In the years since, corruption and cronyism have become even more widespread than they were under the U.S.-backed shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Parsa said.

In the shahs day, public universities commanded more respect, he said, Now you can go and buy degrees at any state Iranian university.

During a question-and-answer session, audience member Bruce Garland asked whether it might take more bloodshed to dislodge the current regime than it did for the shah, who fled along with his associates to the West Whereas the (Revolutionary) Guard has nowhere to go, he said, and therefore the fight would be much more bloody, much more intractable.

Parsa said Iranians were aware that the regime was capable of extreme violence and wanted to avoid that happening.

Iranians know that these people are very ruthless and they are willing to kill thousands again, he said.

But at the same time, Parsa added, the Iranian government feels deeply threatened by popular protests.

Earlier during the event, he noted that Khamenei had lamented that massive protests against fraud in the 2009 election had brought the Islamic Republicto the edge of the cliff.

Other high-ranking officials said those demonstrations had posed a greater challenge to the regime than the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.

Daniel Benjamin, director of the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding, asked what events were most likely to trigger another revolution in Iran.

Earlier, Garthwaite had noted that a succession crisis could develop when Khamenei leaves power.

Although Parsa didnt offer a specific example of a revolutionary trigger, he said the impetus shouldnt come from Washington.

Every time theres an external conflict, Iranians tend to unite, he said. That is what should not happen. Let the contradictions heighten.

Tuesdays event was co-sponsored by the Dickey Center and the Department of Sociology.

Rob Wolfe can be reached at rwolfe@vnews.com or at 603-727-3242.

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Professor Gives View on Iran's Politics - Valley News

Trump’s alignment with Israel and Saudi against Iran: Here’s the catch – PRI

As he concluded his visit to the Middle East on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump championed the Gulf states and pitted himself as the worlds chief antagonist against Shiite Iran and its proxies, ISIS, Hezbollah and Hamas.

The Israeli diplomats and officials invited to hear the speech live in Jerusalem were delighted, rewarding Trump's remarks at the Israel Museum with frequent applause and numerous standing ovations.

Believe me, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, that I can tell you, the president told his excited audience, as a beaming Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nodded in satisfaction. Irans leaders routinely call for Israels destruction. Not with Donald J. Trump.

Trumps strategic re-positioning in the region has two parts. The first is the reversal of the Iran nuclear deal framework, brokered by former President Barack Obama in 2015, which calls for a restriction of Irans nuclear capacities in exchange for significant economic incentives from the West.

Netanyahu had ferociously opposed the Iran deal, claiming it posed an existential threat to Israel. He even attempted, unsuccessfully, to undermine Obamas efforts by circumventing the White House and addressing his objections directly to Congress.

Referring to the deal, Trump told the Israeli public on Tuesday, We not only gave them [the Iranians] a lifeline, we gave them wealth and prosperity. And we also gave them an ability to continue with terror no matter where we go we see the signs of Iran in the Middle East. Instead of saying thank you to the United States, they now feel emboldened. It was a terrible, terrible thing for the United States to enter that deal.

The second part of Trump's strategy entails building a coalition against Iranand its Shiite proxies with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. And as part of that coalition-building, the United States will encourage the Gulf states to normalize their relationship with Israel, once Israel reaches an agreement with the Palestinians and withdraws from the West Bank.

Said Trump, There are those who say that we must choose between supporting Israel and supporting Arab and Muslim nations in the region. That is completely wrong. All decent people want to live in peace, and all humanity is threatened by the evils of terrorism. Diverse nations can unite around the goal of protecting innocent life, upholding human dignity, and promoting peace and stability in the region. My administration is committed to pursuing such a coalition, and we have already made substantial progress during this trip.

This idea of what New Yorker contributor Nathan Thrall called an outside-in peace process isnt new. It dates back to the Arab Peace Initiative, first presented by the League of Arab States in 2002, and is based on the promise that the Arab states will normalize their relations with Israel once the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is resolved. But in his statements, Trump seemed to imply that he had reached some tentative agreements that would allow Israel to step toward normalization before, rather than after, resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-born Israeliwho teaches contemporary Iranian politics at a private research university in Israel, the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya. He says Israel already has some limited partnerships with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States in the field of intelligence, although officially they have no diplomatic relations. Commercial Israeli flights aren't even allowed to fly over Saudi Arabian airspace.

Which is why Israelis of almost all political persuasions were excited to see Air Force One touch down Tuesday from Riyadh,marking the first official direct flight from Saudi Arabia to Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv.

Immediately after the speech, Isaac Herzog head of the opposition from the Zionist Camp, the second-largest party in the Israeli Knesset told Voice of Israel Radio that Trumps remarks represented a total change in the psychology of the Middle East.

To arm Saudi Arabia so it can resist the Iranian threats, Trump has signed an arms deal with the kingdom worth $110 billion dollars but giving frenemy Saudi Arabia that much firepower leaves Israel uncomfortable. After all, Saudi Arabia promotes anti-Semitism and fundamentalist extremism.

Commentator Chemi Shalev wrote in Haaretz that the deal will give the Saudis a hold on Trump, which means he wont be quick to cross them. His shifting attitude toward the Saudi kingdom shows that he can change his mind violently literally from one day to the next, and turn his worst enemy into his greatest ally without thinking twice.

Indeed, Israeli leadersare already worried that they might lose their edge in the region. Speaking on Israeli television, Yuval Steineitz, Minister of National Infrastructure, Energy and Water Resources, praised Trumps promises but added soberly, We will have to sit with the Americans to ensure that in any eventuality, Israel will maintain its military superiority.

Trump has not offered public indications that he has any such intentions.

In recent presidential elections, Iranians rejected the hardline candidates and empowered relative moderate Hassan Rouhani, who seeks to engage with the wider world. But there is always the risk Trumps strong anti-Iran position could actually exacerbate sectarianism.

While they lauded Trumps anti-Iran stance, Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition didnt cheer at all for what the US president had to say about the Palestinians.

I had a great meeting this morning with President Mahmoud Abbas and I can tell you that he is ready to reach a peace deal. I am telling you that, thats what I do, Trump told the suddenly quiet audience in Jerusalem.

We know, for instance, that both Israelis and Palestinians seek lives of hope for their children. And we know that peace is possible if we put aside the pain and disagreements of the past and commit together to finally resolving this crisis which has dragged on for nearly half [a] century.

Right-wingers said they were at least relieved that Trump made no mention of the two-state solution, which they strongly oppose. Speaking on Israeli television, Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked stated, We know that Trump will soon come to realize that there is no partner for peace on the Palestinian side. And he will not impose anything on us, and he will not patronize us.There will never be a Palestinian state.

And therein lies the catch: The willingness of the Sunni coalition to normalize relations with Israel and the Gulf states is predicated on the resolution of the Palestinian conflict. But Israels current hardline government has no intention of making the concessions that such a resolution would demand.

Former left-wing lawmaker Nitzan Horowitz, writing in the Jerusalem Post, warns that Netanyahu is merely playing the regional card as an attempt to dissolve any prospects for progress with the Palestinians.

In the eyes of cynical Israelis, Trump, like Netanyahu in the past, is awarding himself the world title of Mr. Anti-Terror, this time against Iran. For his part, Netanyahu hasnt mentioned Iran publicly in months.

And meanwhile, to the average Israeli, Iran and Saudi Arabia seem particularly far away in the face of ongoing clashes with the Palestinians.

Eetta Prince-Gibson reported from Jerusalem.

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Trump's alignment with Israel and Saudi against Iran: Here's the catch - PRI

Lindt siege tragedy could have been avoided, Iran’s ambassador says – SBS

Iran says the Sydney siege tragedy would have been prevented had Australia heeded its warnings over gunman Man Haron Monis and extradited him to face fraud charges.

Monis was wanted by Iranian authorities which informed Interpol and the Australian government as early as the 2000s about the man, who was born Mohammed Hassan Manteghi in a town almost 400km from Tehran.

The long-awaited findings of the Lindt siege inquest on Wednesday found that Monis had defrauded customers of his travel agency in Iran of about $550,000 before he fled to Australia.

But Australia did not have an extradition treaty with Iran and Monis was not taken back to face the charges.

Irans ambassador in Canberra, Abdolhossein Vahaji, told SBS World News that had the extradition been granted the siege would have never happened.

If we could have repatriated that person from Australia to Iran, under any circumstances, under any rules and regulations if we could do that, I believe that this tragedy would be prevented," he said.

Both countries have been involved in this tragedy.

The important thing is we have to get a lesson from this kind of procedure."

Mr Vahaji described Monis as a religious fraud and a cheat.

I believe he was fooling society. He was cheating the people, he said.

He was not a normal person. He was not a religious person. He was carrying those uniform that clergy people were using in order to fool society, fool the people.

He was mentally distorted.

Australian authorities are now working with Iran on extraditing another individual on a financial related matter, he said.

Mr Vahaji wouldnt go into the details but said it did not involve a threat to Australias national security.

Fortunately we are now on the right track, he said.

Meanwhile, the inquest findings said ASIO received potentially adverse information about Monis in 1996 unrelated to a terrorism threat.

Monis later applied for a protection visa claiming to be a refugee.

He was granted it in August 2000, with ASIO concluding he did not pose a risk to national security.

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Lindt siege tragedy could have been avoided, Iran's ambassador says - SBS

Iran’s Maxed-Out Crude Output Eases OPEC Push to Extend Cuts – Bloomberg

Irans oil industry bounced back from sanctions last year, cranking up output to recover market share from other OPEC producers. Now that its surge has topped out, Iran supports an extension of the groups cuts to preserve those gains.

Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganehs willingness to embrace a deal that leaves Iran room to pump about 3.8 million barrels a day signals the country is already producing near capacity, according to analysts from BNP Paribas SA and Energy Aspects Ltd. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to extend curbs by nine months at a Vienna meeting this week.

We do not have any problem between six or nine months, Zanganeh told reporters Wednesday in Tehran, referring totwo different scenarios for a possible extension. We will go along with what the majority agrees with. He added that there has been no hint regarding a cutback in production by Iran as of now, when asked if other OPEC members have requested the country to trim output under a renewed deal.

Oil producers are struggling to shore up markets after a global supply glut sent prices tumbling, with Saudi Arabia and Russia proposing that their 24-nation alliance prolong output limits beyond June and into the first quarter of 2018. Iran insisted on and won an exemption from the cuts that took effect in January and has since pumped just below its cap -- unable to produce much more even if it wanted to.

Iran, knowing that its production capacity is limited anyway over the next year or so, is happy to go along with the status quo, Harry Tchilinguirian, a commodities analyst at BNP Paribas in London, said by phone. Iran is not the stumbling block.

OPEC will meet Thursday in the Austrian capital to consider extending output cuts to clear a global oversupply. It resorted to settinglimits last year after benchmark Brent crude plunged to less than half its 2014 high of more than $115 a barrel. Brent has averagedabout $54 a barrelsince the end of November when OPEC members agreed to quotas.

The Iranians clearly have big ambitions for their oil industry, but theyve made slow progress, said Richard Mallinson, an analyst at Energy Aspects in London. The Persian Gulf country boosted output and exports after international sanctions were eased in January 2016, but its production capacity is stuck at about 3.8 million barrels a day, he said. Technically, theyre going to struggle to lift crude production above that level until the effect of foreign investment starts to be felt.

Most international oil companies held off from investing in Iran before the May 19 elections that confirmed Hassan Rouhani as president for a second term. Rouhani hasnt indicated yet which cabinet members will keep their jobs, includingZanganeh, the oil minister.

Read more: How Rouhanis win might effect oil policy

Iranboosted output by about 800,000 barrels a daylast year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration,recouping some of the sales it lost to rivals while shackled by sanctions. The Islamic Republic increased its share of OPECs total sales to 8 percent, on a par with what it had prior to sanctions,data from the EIA show. Its now the groups third-largest producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Exports have more than doubled to about 2.5 million barrels a day since restrictions were eased, Zanganeh told reporters on May 6.Tanker-tracking data also show crude shipments rising but at a slower rate, to 1.8 million. If other producers keep trimming their output under an extended cuts agreement, Iran should be able to protect its enlarged slice of the market.

Iran pumped 3.76 million barrels a day in April, down slightly from January when it produced 3.8 million -- the most since April 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The country needs to keep spending if it wants to maintain output at such levels.

If Iran doesnt succeed in attracting investment, the natural pressure drop of its mature field will be a major hurdle for sustaining production at the current level, said Sara Vakhshouri, president of Washington, D.C.-based consultant SVB Energy International LLC.

Quick Take: Heres how Irans trying to lure back foreign oil investors

Projects that the state oil company is developing by itself will keep output steady for at least six months, but Iran will need foreign expertise to tap new reservoirs,saidRobin Mills, who previously worked in the country as a geologist for Royal Dutch Shell Plc and nowruns Dubai-based consultantQamar Energy.

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While the U.S. extended sanctions relief for Iran earlier this month, President Donald Trump excoriated the governments alleged financing of terrorist groups during a visit to Saudi Arabia on May 21. Trump said in a speechto leaders of predominantly Muslim nations that Iran should be isolated until it actively supports peace. Rouhani dismissed the meeting in Riyadh as a show without political value, speaking at a Monday news conference.

Rancor between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran wont stop Tehran from supporting the Saudi-backed extension of output cuts, according to Fabio Scacciavillani, chief economist at the Oman Investment Fund.

You need to look at each countrys interest, not its words, Scacciavillani said in an interview in Dubai. Where the Saudis and Iranians interests converge is in giving support to oil prices by maintaining the production cuts.

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Iran's Maxed-Out Crude Output Eases OPEC Push to Extend Cuts - Bloomberg

Iran blames Trump as Bahrain protesters killed – Sky News

Five protesters were killed and 286 arrested after police in Bahrain raided the hometown of a Shia Muslim spiritual leader who faces deportation.

Sheikh Isa Qassim was stripped of his citizenship last June, and last week a court gave him a year's suspended sentence for financial corruption.

He was not among those detained in Diraz, but the interior ministry said "terrorists and convicted felons" were hiding inside his home.

Footage from the town showed protesters confronting armoured vehicles and police.

Gunshots are heard and white smoke from tear gas can be seen.

Tuesday's violence comes just days after Donald Trump told King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa that he would improve relations between the two countries.

Their relationship has been strained for several years, despite the kingdom being host to the US Navy.

A crackdown on dissent over the last year has heightened tensions between the Shia majority and the Sunni rulers, and access to Diraz has been tightly controlled for months.

Bahrain accuses Iran of encouraging unrest by the country's Shia population, while Iran said Mr Trump's remarks about Tehran supporting militant groups were to blame for the deaths.

Iran's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, tweeted: "First concrete result of POTUS (Trump) cozying up to despots in Riyadh: Deadly attack on peaceful protesters by emboldened Bahrain regime."

Nicholas McGeehan, a senior Bahrain researcher at Human Rights Watch, said: "The timing of this operation two days after King Hamad's convivial meeting with President Trump can hardly be a coincidence."

Ebtasam Alsaegh, from the neighbouring village of Bani Jamra, said mosques had called residents to the streets to protect Sheikh Qassim.

"The situation is terrifying," she said.

The interior ministry said that police had been deployed to remove road blocks and barricades.

"Police remain deployed in the area to ensure the safety of people," it said in a statement.

It added that 19 members of the security services were injured after petrol bombs were thrown at them.

During 2011's Arab Spring, Bahrain crushed an uprising by the Shia community with the help of Saudi Arabia.

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Iran blames Trump as Bahrain protesters killed - Sky News