What You Should Know About the Iran Nuclear Negotiations
As the U.S. approaches a deadline for a nuclear deal with Iran, here are some basic facts about the negotiations to keep in mind:
The deadline for a deal between Iran and the P5+1 (U.S., U.K., Russia, China, France + Germany) on a broad technical framework for Irans nuclear program is March 31, as established by Secretary of State John Kerry in November when he announced a four-month extension of negotiations. The specific technical guidelines within that deal would need to be decided by June 30. Implementation of the agreement would begin after that date.
A deal would require Iran to halt production of all weapons-grade nuclear material for another 10 years -- as it has already done under an interim agreement -- and to submit to an intense inspection and verification process. In exchange, the international community and the U.S. would gradually lift heavy economic sanctions. Reports about the latest negotiations say the agreement would force Iran to cut the hardware it could use to make a bomb by about 40 percent. That would mean Iran would be allowed to keep 6,000 of the 10,000 centrifuges it has used to enrich uranium. Current estimates are that Iran could put together enough nuclear material for an atomic bomb in about two to three months, what is known as a breakout time. The U.S. believes a deal would push Irans breakout time to one year during the course of the 10-year moratorium.
Iran wants an economic recovery ... and fast. Irans leaders expect a deal will provide the country an immediate economic bump. But if that doesnt happen, some analysts fear resentment towards Iranian President Hassan Rouhani could grow and eventually lead to a breakdown of the agreement. Analysts also say Irans economic problems run far deeper than the sanctions, so theyre skeptical that lifting sanctions alone will turn things around. Others hope that the mere announcement of a deal will boost public confidence and encourage European businesses to engage with Iran, giving Iran the bump it needs.
Laurent Gillieron/Keystone/AP Photo
PHOTO: Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif leaves the hotel Beau-Rivage Palace after 5 days of bilateral meetings during a new round of Nuclear Iran Talks, in Lausanne, Switzerland, March 20, 2015.
President Obama could lift some of the U.S. sanctions immediately but others would be lifted over time pending verification that Iran is complying with the agreement. Eventually, Congress will have to approve lifting some of the final sanctions, which could be problematic.
The P5+1 wants time. It wants to avoid the possibility that Irans nuclear pursuits could lead to a regional conflict. A 10-year nuclear moratorium, while not a permanent solution, gives the P5=1 countries that time. They want to avoid a nuclear arms race in the Gulf region. More specifically, they want to ensure that Irans most hardened nuclear facilities are no longer producing nuclear material.
The deal hinges, in large part, on the deep buried enrichment facility at Fordow. Iran wants to keep running hundreds of the centrifuges there for scientific research, but the U.S. wants Iran to completely repurpose the facility, fearing the centrifuges could be easily retooled for a quick, secret breakout. The U.S. is focusing on the Fordow facility because it is buried deep underground, possibly beyond the reach of the worlds most powerful bunker-buster bombs. So if Iran breaks the agreement, Fordow would be its most hardened and likely choice to begin producing the material.
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What You Should Know About the Iran Nuclear Negotiations