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The civil war in Syria entered its seventh year last Wednesday.

After six years that UN human rights chief Zeid Raad al-Hussein described to the UN Human Rights Council as the worst man-made disaster since World War II, encouraging news came from Astana, Kazakhstan, last week. The third round of Russia-led talks on reconciliation in Syria began with an announcement that a special team would be set up to supervise the implementation of the ceasefire on the ground. The members of the team will be Turkey, Russia, and Iran.

According to a statement by Alexander Lavrentiev, head of Russias delegation to the talks, the parties agreed to provide maps showing the location of terrorist groups such as Islamic State and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (formerly known as the al-Nusra Front).

But in case anyone thought, even for a moment, that any light was visible at the end of this blood-drenched tunnel, the reports from Damascus brought them back to reality: two terror attacks, one at the Damascus court complex and the other at a nearby restaurant, that killed more than 25 people.

Syrian security forces gather under a portrait of Syrian President Bashar Assad at the old palace of justice building in Damascus following a reported suicide bombing on March 15, 2017. (AFP Photo/Louai Beshara)

It was an unequivocal message from the Sunni Islamist groups to anyone who was counting on a return to the past and the re-establishment of Greater Syria. Not much is left of the Syria of six years ago. Nearly half a million people have been killed and unknown millions have been wounded. Five million people have left their homes, either displaced or as refugees (a fifth of a population of approximately 22 million). Syrias economy is crushed, its infrastructures is in ruins, and its population suffers from constant shortages of power, water, and proper medical treatment.

What the Astana talks have made abundantly clear is that Syria is no longer in Syrian hands. An unholy mixture of superpower and other foreign interests is reshaping the map of what used to be Syria. Its coastal strip and several of its large cities are still controlled by Bashar Assad, the nominal president. That area, once known as Alawistan for the politically dominant Alawite branch of Islam, is now known by Israeli officials as Assadistan (because Sunni residents are the majority in those areas by close to 70 percent), while the rest of the territory is divided among moderate rebel groups, extremists such as Islamic State and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, Kurds and Turkey.

But the picture is even more complicated. The influence of foreign players such as Russia, the United States, and, of course, Iran, is visible in those areas as well. Islamic States weakness in the region and its loss of the territory that it used to control due to massive American aerial attacks, among other things has resulted, simultaneously, in the entrenchment of significant Iranian influence throughout Syria, mainly in the areas controlled by Assad.

Thus Iran, as it takes advantage of the civil war in Syria and Islamic States takeover in Iraq, is looking more and more like the big winner of the Arab Spring in the region stretching from Tehran to Latakia and southward to Beirut. The Shiite crescent, which King Abdullah of Jordan warned about more than a decade ago, is amassing unprecedented power in the region even without possessing an atomic bomb and with its nuclear program frozen. If the saying Islam is the solution was common in the past, particularly among the Sunnis (in reference to groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas), perhaps the saying from now on should be that Shiite Islam is the solution.

Iran is in control of with swaths of territory running from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea; it has taken control of Iraq and is expelling Islamic State from there using Shiite militias under its command.

An Iraqi militia fighter of the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadrs Saraya al-Salam (Peace Brigade), waves a flag next to a rocket launcher during heavy clashes with IS fighters in Tuz Khurmatu in the Salaheddin province on August 31, 2014. (photo credit: AFP/J.M. Lopez)

The Hebrew-language Walla news site reported this week that Iran has been paving a trans-Iraq highway from Iran to Syria. Tehran has enormous influence over what happens in Syria militarily and economically. It operates a cellular franchise throughout Iraq, and as was mentioned in talks between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow earlier this month is working to build a port in Latakia, on Syrias Mediterranean coast.

While Iran has not yet begun construction, it has submitted a draft proposal for the port to Assad, who tends toward approving it. The proposal states, in simple terms, that Iran will lease land in the city from Syria and use it to establish the maritime terminal. The port would be under Iranian sovereignty in every way, and the Syrians would have no access to it. In other words, it would be like the naval base that the Russians established in Tartus. The land would be leased to the Iranians for fifty years.

Irans influence in what used to be Syria does not end there, of course. Roughly 1,300 to 1,500 Iranians combat soldiers, intelligence personnel, members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, logistics personnel and others currently operate there (according to Israeli assessments, 150 to 200 Iranians have been killed so far in the fighting in Syria).

In addition, there are the Iranian-funded Shiite militias, which number approximately 7,000 to 10,000 fighters who came from places as far afield as Pakistan and Afghanistan. And the Shiite fighters of Hezbollah approximately 8,000 on Syrian soil who take orders from Tehran (according to various estimates, between 1,700 and 2,000 Hezbollah fighters have been killed in Syria).

Fighters of the Shiite Hezbollah terror group attend the funeral of a comrade who died in combat in Syria in the southern Lebanese town of Kfar Hatta on March 18, 2017. (AFP Photo/Mahmoud Zayyat)

Iran has been doing more in recent months than merely transferring arms to Hezbollah and the Shiite militias in Syria and in Lebanon. According to a recent report in the Kuwaiti newspaper al-Jarida, Tehran has begun speeding up its armament effort by setting up rocket-manufacturing facilities in those countries. The details provided in the report are partial, of course. Members of the IRGC supervise the facilities, which are deep underground in both countries, not only Lebanon.

The arms that are manufactured there ought to cause Israel quite a bit of concern. These are not ordinary rockets that are being added to the usual ordinary arsenal; they are particularly precise.

Irans deployment in the post-Arab Spring era does not stop between Tehran and Latakia and Beirut. Indeed, its long arms also stretch to Yemen and the Gaza Strip.

Thus, as the civil war in Syria enters its seventh year, that countrys remaining citizens and the Middle East as a whole may be able to breathe a sigh of relief on one level: Islamic States control over the area is weakening. But the Iranian influence, which will have harsh implications for the Sunnis in the region, is growing, and neither calm nor stability is visible on the horizon.

This file photo taken on December 14, 2016 shows Syrian pro-government forces advancing during a military operation in the northern city of Aleppo. (AFP Photo/George Ourfalian)

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Islamic State's wane sets the stage for regional superpower Iran - The Times of Israel

New York Times

Iranian Pilgrims Can Participate in Hajj This Year, Saudi Arabia Says New York Times Saudi Arabia, ruled by a Sunni Muslim monarchy, accuses Iran of weakening Arab states by funding militias. Iran, a revolutionary Shiite state, accuses Saudi Arabia of spreading an intolerant interpretation of Islam that has fed terrorism and endangered ... Iran pilgrims to join this year's Hajj: Saudi ArabiaAljazeera.com Saudi general says Trump admin vows support against IranWashington Times Saudi Arabia Invites Muslims from Iran to Holy Pilgrimage in MeccaNewsweek Antiwar.com -BBC News -Khaleej Times all 360 news articles »

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Iranian Pilgrims Can Participate in Hajj This Year, Saudi Arabia Says - New York Times

Former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper says the nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers should be cancelled should it be determined that the Islamic Republic is not complying with it.

There was a hope that the nuclear agreement would help moderate the Iranian regimes behavior. It hasnt. It has emboldened the Iranian regime. The nuclear agreement should be scrapped at the first sign of Iranian non-compliance, Harper said in an interview with Near East Report, ahead of his speech at the upcoming AIPAC Policy Conference.

It is incumbent on both our countries to continue to denounce Irans terrorist activities and human rights abuses. We should also look for every opportunity to dialogue with Iranian society through both traditional means and social-media platforms, added Harper.

Harper, considered one the most pro-Israel prime ministers in Canadas history, was asked how he came to develop a strong connection with the State of Israel.

Israel is a fellow member of the global family of free and democratic nations, so it shares our values. It is also our only long-standing and enduring ally in that most dangerous part of the world, the Middle East, so it also shares our threats, he replied.

Thus the defense of Israel is in our own national interests as Canadians, as it is in the interests of all western nations.

Harper expressed concern with the anti-Israel Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement and its presence on university campuses.

The reality of BDS on campuses is the targeting of Israeli academics, the harassment of Jewish students and intimidation against free speech, he said.

On the positive side, I note that my partythe Conservative Party of Canadawas successful in passing a resolution through our Parliament that denounces this hateful movement, added Harper.

Speaking of Israel and Canadas relations moving forward, Harper said, [B]oth security and the economy are key areas where the Canada-Israel relationship could be much more developed. Countering the isolation of Israel in multilateral fora remains the chief area where Canadian leadership continues to be needed. For example, Canada could have and should have denounced United Nations Security Council Resolution 2334.

Harper is a staunch supporter of Israel and, while his successor Justin Trudeau has continued to vote against anti-Israel resolutions at the UN, he has also tried to get closer to Muslims.

Trudeaus government several months ago announced it will renew funding for the United Nations Relief and Works (UNRWA), despite its well-documented ties to the Hamas terrorist organization.

Since taking office, Trudeau has taken the view that Islam is "not incompatible with the Western secular democracy."

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'Nuclear agreement has emboldened Iran' - Arutz Sheva

Irans conservatives have been vocal in their criticism of President Hassan Rouhani, dismissing his outreach to the West as naive and the nuclear deal he championed as an economic failure.

But when it comes to challenging the moderate Rouhani for reelection in May, the hard-liners, who oppose expanding political and social freedoms, are struggling to agree on a message or candidate.

Ten possible candidates put forward by a bloc of political leaders this month are all seen as lacking the stature to oppose the first-term incumbent. Arguably the countrys most respected conservative, parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani, has thrown his support behind Rouhani.

While the field of aspirants wont be finalized until April, analysts say it is becoming clear that Rouhani a soft-spoken cleric who has staked his presidency on ending Irans isolation and reopening its economy to foreign investment is likely to secure a second term in the May 19 vote.

Rouhani is in a very strong position at this moment, said Behrooz Ghamari, an associate professor of history at the University of Illinois. The conservatives are in such disarray and finding it too difficult to rally around an agreed-upon agenda to pose any threat to Rouhani.

It is always challenging to interpret political maneuverings before Irans elections because all candidates must be approved by the conservative Guardian Council, and no one runs for office without the approval of the theocracys supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

But Khamenei has shown a predilection for continuity. Since he became head of state in 1989, all three presidents before Rouhani have served the maximum two four-year terms. And Irans conservatives are notoriously unruly; they last agreed on a single candidate two decades ago.

Rouhanis technocratic administration, led by the U.S.-educated foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, promised that an easing of international sanctions following the nuclear deal would help revitalize Irans economy. But many unilateral U.S. sanctions remain in place, hindering the foreign investment that could fuel a recovery.

The nuclear deal with the U.S. and five other world powers calls for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment, which experts said could be used to develop a nuclear weapon, in exchange for a lifting of international sanctions.

The supreme leader has criticized Rouhani, most recently this month, for failing to stem rampant unemployment. At weekly Friday prayers last week, which the ruling theocracy uses to get its message out, Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani echoed Khameneis message by saying, No more talk about a long-term plan for improving employment. People must feel the improvement in their daily lives.

Such statements have led many Iranians to wonder whether the Guardian Council would even allow Rouhani to stand for reelection. But with President Trumps administration threatening to reconsider the nuclear deal and take action over Irans support for Syrian President Bashar Assad, experts say Iran is facing growing uncertainty beyond its borders.

It is very unlikely that the system disqualifies Rouhani, said Ali Vaez, Iran analyst with the International Crisis Group. Doing so amid concerns over Trumps policy toward Iran could add instability to uncertainty.

At the same time, Vaez said, the consistent criticism from Khamenei and his allies suggests that even if the president receives a second mandate, it would be a weaker one.

Rouhani appears convinced he will be a candidate again, this month assigning a widely respected moderate Mohammad Ali Najafi to help run his campaign. Najafi, an MIT graduate, has begun the reelection effort by reaching out to voters on university campuses, one of the urban constituencies that voted resoundingly for the president in 2013.

For reformists who seek greater political and social freedoms, Rouhani remains popular despite his inability to roll back restrictions on the media, the way women dress and other aspects of Iranians private lives. Analysts say these voters know that the ruling clerics are not ready to see anyone more culturally permissive than Rouhani take power for fear of sparking protests like those that followed the disputed 2009 election.

Anyone more reformist and culturally and political more open-minded than President Rouhani would cause social upheaval that could go wildly out of control, said Farshad Qourbanpour, a political analyst in Tehran who is close to the reformist camp.

Suppressing that wave, once it rises, would be very costly for the theocracy.

Although many Iranians have not felt it in their wallets, the economy is showing signs of improvement since Rouhani took office. After contracting in 2013, the economy grew by an estimated 7% last year, according to the Khabar news website. The inflation rate has dipped below 10%, while unemployment officially stands at 11%, though experts believe it is much higher.

Perhaps the strongest boost Rouhani received was from Larijani, the parliamentary speaker and a longtime advisor to the supreme leader. As conservative leaders called on their camp to agree on one candidate to oppose Rouhani, Larijani pointedly said he would not join their bloc and signaled that he would like to see Rouhani reelected.

Experts say Larijani has formed a good working relationship with the president. With Rouhani likely to win again, Larijani could have his eye on being a candidate in 2021.

I doubt that he would preempt his presidential chances in the long run, said Rouzbeh Parsi, a lecturer in human rights studies at Swedens Lund University, speaking of Larijani. If he still has those ambitions, it would be smarter to wait four years.

Special correspondent Mostaghim reported from Tehran and Times staff writer Bengali from Mumbai, India.

shashank.bengali@latimes.com

Follow @SBengali on Twitter for more news

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Trump talks tough on Iran, but can he bring jailed Americans home?

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Here's one country where hard-liners might not be poised for election success: Iran - Los Angeles Times

Iran, one of the states targeted by Donald Trumps Muslim ban, is a country from which the US could learn a lot on the resettlement of refugees, the UN has said.

The Soviet War in Afghanistan displaced six million people to neighbouring Iran and Pakistan in 1979. Almost four decades later, the Tehran government still shelters around one million registered Afghans, and up to two million are thought to also be living in the country - making Iran home to the worlds fourth largest refugee population.

The leadership demonstrated by the Iranian government has been exemplary in hosting refugees and keeping borders open, Sivanka Dhanapala, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees in Tehran, said on Wednesday.

It's a story that's not told often enough.

The remarks come as Mr Trumps administration tries to resuscitate its travel ban on peoplefrom seven Muslim-majority countries, and halt the resettlement of Syrian refugees.

The new ban - which could affect the one million Iranian nationals living and studying in the US - was slapped down on Wednesday by a federal court in Hawaii on the grounds it could cause irreparable injury.

It was ironic, Mr Dhanapala noted, that Iranians could be barred from the US while continuing to deal with the human fallout of the American conflict with the Soviet Union.

While Afghans resident in Iran - especially those who are undocumented - are often marginalised to the fringes of society as poorly paid manual workers, and are not allowed to apply for citizenship, the Tehran government has also recently taken positive steps such as ordering schools to take in all Afghan children, and embarked on a health insurance scheme that covers refugees.

The UN is fostering hopes that the country will ease work permit restrictions and register more undocumented Afghans in the future.

They are unlikely to return home voluntarily as Afghanistan becomes more unstable that it has been in years and its economy continues to stagnate. Worldwide, the average amount of time a refugee spends outside their home country is 20 years.

In a world where you have multiple bad stories about hosting refugees, I think Iran is really a good news story, Mr Dhanapala added.

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Iran's 'exemplary' refugee resettlement efforts praised by UN - The Independent