The odds of reaching a deal to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons that could pass muster in Tehran, Jerusalem and the U.S. Congress are growing longer.
U.S. officials have never said the chances of success were better than 50-50, and privately some American negotiators are much more pessimistic than that as the negotiations head toward a March 24 deadline to agree on a political framework.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that he strongly objects to the terms of the potential nuclear deal. Thats a message hes likely to press when he comes to Washington in March, shortly before Israeli elections, to address a joint meeting of Congress and rally pro-Israel activists to lobby lawmakers too.
The agreement now being formulated between the major powers and Iran is unacceptable to Israel, Netanyahu said in comments during a visit to a defense company in Yehud, near Tel Aviv. This agreement is dangerous to Israel, to the region and to the world.
Netanyahus push to kill a deal will further strain his relations with President Barack Obama, whos made getting a nuclear agreement one of his foreign policy priorities.
Netanyahu believes the pending agreement would destroy the whole sanctions framework and allow Iran to continue its illicit nuclear program, and his strategy is try to use the Republican Congress as a counterweight to Obamas determination to seal a bad deal with Tehran, said Gerald Steinberg, a political scientist at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv. The only other option for him would be military action, which would create even more friction with the U.S.
The U.S., the five nations that are its negotiating partners and Iran are wrangling over the terms of a deal that would limit Irans nuclear capabilities to prevent the Islamic Republic from developing nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes.
Obama said in his State of the Union address that the bipartisan move in Congress for further sanctions legislation threatens to derail the talks. He said hed veto such a measure to give diplomacy a chance to succeed.
Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein of California on Monday denounced sanctions legislation, such as a bill offered by Republican Senator Mark Kirk of Illinois and Democratic Senator Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey, as reckless and dangerous.
With the Senate Banking Committee due to vote on the Kirk-Menendez bill on Thursday, Feinstein led a group of Democratic senators in proposing a nonbinding alternative. Her resolution says that the Senate would be prepared to enact additional sanctions if the diplomatic efforts fail.
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Iran Nuclear Deal Prospects Fade as Israel Digs In Against Terms