Why Iran needs nuclear dealbadly
Umit Bektas | Reuters
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani attends a news conference in Ankara, Turkey, June 9, 2014.
The so-called P5+1 countriesthe five permanent United Nations Security Council members, plus Germanyagain met with Iranian representatives in late November in order to negotiate terms for dismantling its nuclear program, but failed for a second time to agree on a deal.
Since economic sanctions took effect in 2012, Iran's gross domestic product has contracted by 8.6 percent, according to the report, from the Institute of International Finance. The falling price of oil has only furthered Iran's troubles. About 35 percent of the Iranian government's revenues came from oil prior to sanctions, according to the report, and Tehran is watching deficits mount.
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"If the sanctions stay, they could bring the Iranian economy to its knees in two years," said Garbis Iradian, deputy director of the IIF, who co-authored the report.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani pledged to Iranian voters that he would attempt to get relief from economic sanctions and improve relations with the West. Iran's "supreme leader," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has shielded Iran's negotiating team from would-be hard-line attackers by publicly backing further talks.
The Iranian government needs the price of oil to be $148 per barrel to balance its budget for the 2014-2015 fiscal year, almost $50 higher than it needed before sanctions, according to the IIF, which is an association of banks, insurers, asset managers and other financial institutions that claims members in 70 countries.
Internationally priced Brent crude is trading below $70 a barrel, and the IIF predicts near-term prices will hover around $80.
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Why Iran needs nuclear dealbadly