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Stimsons Syria Series, closed roundtables under Chatham House Rule for renowned regional and international experts, aims to unpack the complexity and enhance understanding of the policies and perceptions of players in the Syrian conflict.

As part of its roundtable activity Syria Series, Stimson Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Program held the second online edition entitled Regional Consequences of the Syrian Conflict on Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq on the 19th of September 2022, under Chatham House Rule.

The humanitarian, security and economic dynamics of Syria are interlinked with that of Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq after more than eleven years of a devastating war. The drowning of more than 77 Lebanese and Syrians among others after their boat heading to Europe sank off the Syrian shores on September 23 highlights the cross-border dimensions of the humanitarian misery for both countries.The security impact of the ongoing conflict in Syria has transformed from the movement of non-state-actors across borders to established networks for smuggling drugs to Jordan en transit to the Gulf. And the US-Iran confrontation is played out in both countries, making the US presence in Syria and Iraq increasingly interconnected.

To discuss the regional interconnections between Syria and its three neighbors Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq the Stimson MENA Program, gathered experts and policy makers from the EU, Germany, Iran, Russia, Switzerland, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, and the US to share insights on this important aspect of the Syrian crisis. The roundtable was moderated by Kawa Hassan, Executive Director Stimson Europe, Director MENA Program and Senior Fellow, and Abdulla Ibrahim, Non-resident Fellow, Stimson MENA Program.

The war in Ukraine has diverted the international communitys political, financial and media attention from Syria with two immediate consequences. First, it deprived Syria as well as the region from much needed material support in the middle of an unprecedented regional economic collapse: Syria and Lebanon with depended economic disaster, Jordan, and Lebanon with increased burden of the Syrian refugees, Jordan with the drugs and smuggling networks, and Iraq with the endemic corruption. These economic woes are interconnected to political challenges. Second, it left the Syrian conflict with no horizon for a political solution due to the polarization of global politics. The Russian preoccupation with Ukraine has also left a security vacuum that is filled by Turkey, Iran, ISIS, and many others. That has led to eroding the long-held stalemate in Syria, as one expert suggested. With dire consequences for Syria and the region, attention is urgently warranted, and a new, proactive policy is required.

With dire consequences for Syria and the region, attention is urgently warranted, and a new, proactive policy is required

Caring for the Syrian refugees in a failing Lebanese state is as hard as providing for Lebanese citizens. Lebanon has been hit by consecutive economic crises lately: covid-19 pandemic in 2020/2021, after the economic crisis in mid-2019. This has resulted in a drastic deterioration of the rights and living conditions of both Lebanese citizens and Syrian refugees. Lebanon has a poor record in treating refugees, and Syrians are no exception. Syrian refugees are treated as guests and denied basic rights like to employment and education. Around 80% of Syrians in Lebanon are not legal residents and are therefore vulnerable to political and economic abuses.Within Lebanon, there is an increasingly discriminatory discourse against Syrian refugees with a tendency to blame them for all the countrys failures, mentioned one of the experts

Despite the push factors to leave Lebanon, voluntary return to Syria has not increased. Since 2016, only 70.000out of 1.5 millionhas returned to Syria, with many of them coming back to Lebanon again. In 2021, there were only roughly about 5.000 returning Syrian refugees to Syria according to Human Rights Watch (HRW). The majority of Syrians in Lebanon are thus still opting to remain in Lebanon. Concerning Syrians that have opted to come back to Lebanon after returning to Syria, they were confronted with several grave human rights violations that included kidnapping, execution, and sexual assaults according to a study by HRW on returnees between 2017-2021.Refugees also spoke about the struggle to survive in Syria due to electricity cuts and a lack of food. In line with HRW findings, the Syrian Commission of Inquiry states that Syria continues to be unsafe to return.

Supporting the Syrian refugees in Lebanon cannot be effective without addressing the wider crisis in Lebanon.

Supporting the Syrian refugees in Lebanon cannot be effective without addressing the wider crisis in Lebanon. The Lebanese state is unable to support its own citizens and channeling more aid to Syrian refugees living next to poor Lebanese raises moral and political questions in addition to societal tensions. Experts warned that the confluence of the growing volatility on the ground and the increasing economic dire straits is very dangerous for Lebanon and beyond including Europe, and therefore there is a need for an out of the box thinking and approach by international players and donors. They suggested some ideas to address this immense challenge ranging from supporting the Lebanese state, devising solutions to grant access to education for Syrian refugees, improving the effectiveness of aid and assuring that it arrives to the right recipients, considering distinguishing between the Syrian refugees and economic migrants, and considering regional and global demographic burden sharing.

Jordan felt the shocks of the Syrian crisis on its security and economy since day one. The negative indirect impact affected the economy of the north of Jordan in terms of increased unemployment, reduced growth, and swollen poverty. The issue of refugees in Jordan is becoming routine, and it has become a new reality for Jordanian society, as one expert explained.The smuggling of drugs has now become a devastating factor not only to Jordans security but more importantly to its social fabric. The protraction of the unresolved Syrian crisis has increased the inefficiency of the whole Jordanian state institutions.

The issue of refugees in Jordan is becoming routine, and it has become a new reality for Jordanian society, as one expert explained.

When it comes to drug smuggling, historically, Jordan functioned as a transit hub between Syria and the Gulf. But now Jordan is becoming a hub for well-rooted networks of criminality that is pervasive into the Jordanian society structure. The fall of ISIS and the collapse of arms smuggling have given way to drugs to fill the vacuum. These arms-based networks turned into drugs-based networks and have penetrated the region and are on their way to becoming institutionalized across borders in the region. The lack of a political horizon and the unstoppable state collapse in Syria threatens a resurgence of a new kind of radicalism. The risk of ignoring drugs-smuggling and finding a political solution to the Syrian conflict potentially will lead to a potential marriage and unholy alliance between ISIS and criminal networks, which is a serious threat to regional security. The international community should introduce a cooperation model similar to the anti-ISIS coalition, which includes intelligence sharing and enhancement of border control techniques and capabilities. Improving rule of law in Syria is inevitable for any strategy to curb drug production and smuggling to devastate social structures on the regional level. This new strategy requires a political solution in Syria.

Jordan launched a political initiative for the conflict in 2021 when it realized that there is a need for a realpolitik vision in dealing with the war in Syria. This initiative reflects the shifting priorities of Jordan to focus on stability, as well as for other Arab countries like the UAE. Given the unprecedented challenges arising from the lack of vision to end the ongoing conflict in Syria, finding a solution is a part of Jordans national security. However, Jordan cannot go far alone without support from its allies and with cooperation from the Syrian government. Despite the Jordanian interest to see a solution in Syria, there is a lack of vision on what the future Syria should look like. It is worth noting that Jordans relationship with the Syrian government has been historically filled with rivalries and mired with ideological and political rivalries, and personal differences. But in the end, Jordan and Syria do share a border, and stability in Syria is of Jorans national interest. The lack of vision and active policies toward a political solution in Syria from the international community is alarming to Jordan, and that is the motive behind its 2021 initiative.

For Iraqis, Syria has been a source of instability for years since the Syrian Government used to allow its borders for terrorists to cross to Iraq to attack the US forces and Iraqi civilians. After 2011, the crisis in Syria brought multiple economic and security challenges to Iraq, especially for the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region and Mosul. These intertwined security and economic challenges have affected internal Iraqi politics, such as the dynamics between Iraqi Sunni-Shite groups. In addition, the fragmentation of Iraqi politics has led to fragmented policies toward Syria.The instability in Syria has reduced the Iraqi GDP by 1.2 Percentage Point according to a study by The World Bank in 2020, due to the negative effects on investment, tourism, and Syrian refugees.

For Iraqis, Syria has been a source of instability for years since the Syrian Government used to allow its borders for terrorists to cross to Iraq to attack the US forces and Iraqi civilians.

Apart from the national impact on Iraq as a whole, the war in Syria is affecting Iraqi regions differently. In the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), the Syrian crisis influences the relationship between Kurdish parties such as the PYD/KDP, and the KDP/PKK, which are also influenced by regional players, such as Turkey and Iran. Economically, Syrian oil and products are refined in Iraqi Kurdistan before being exported through Turkey. It is important to note that much of the aid that goes to Syria crosses through KRI, which is often dependent on the border crossings that could be closed due to disagreements between the Iraqi KDP and the Syrian PYD. More to the south in Iraq, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and the Iraqi central government are key players, where the Iraqi non-state-armed groups have a presence on both sides of the borders. This is an issue of great contention between Iraq, Iran, and the US. Iraq has furthermore formed a bridge for Iranian aid to Syria. Therefore, the US and Iranian presence in both countries is a source of destabilization in Iraq, and events in either country affect the other drastically.

There is also the issue of the ISIS camps and prisons in the Northeast of Syria that hold a lot of Iraqi citizens. For example, the al-Hol camp holds more than 50.000 ISIS family members, one third of them are Iraqis, which is a big problem for Iraq, Syria, and the international community. For Iraqis, the camp is a ticking timebomb and Iraqi officials have avoided dealing with the issue altogether.The key question here is: what can the international community do to address this problem? An expert noted that most stakeholders are not truly trying to solve the issue because there is a lack of jurisdiction in dealing with those detained in al-Hol, and there is no agreed-upon solution to this thorny issue.For Iraqis, unofficially, it a taboo to speak about al-Hol. On the other hand, the unclarity of the situation inside the camps makes it difficult to find a solution.

Excerpt from:
Regional Consequences of the Syrian Conflict on Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq Stimson Center - Stimson Center

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The text of the following statement was released by the Governments of the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, and Yemen:

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At the invitation of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the Foreign Ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council member states, the Arab Republic of Egypt, the Republic of Iraq, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, and the Republic of Yemen, and the GCC Secretary General met in New York on September 23, 2022, to underscore the historic and enduring partnership among their countries and enhance joint cooperation in all fields.

Building upon the successful Jeddah Security and Development Summit in July 2022, the Secretary of State underscored the enduring U.S. commitment to the security and territorial defense of U.S. partners and taking all necessary measures to preserve the regions security and stability, and developing joint areas of cooperation and integration.

The Ministers underscored the historic, strategic, ambitious, and growing partnerships between the United States and the GCC, its member states, as well as Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, and Yemen, to promote peace, security, stability, and economic prosperity in the Middle East and address regional and global challenges, including humanitarian, food, health, and climate crises.

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Joint Statement Following the GCC, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, and Yemen Ministerial - United States Department of State - Department of State

BAGHDAD, 28 September 2022- UNICEF abhors and condemns the attack which impacted a school today in a refugee settlement in Koya, in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

At least two children were injured and one pregnant woman was killed, according to initial reports. UNICEF extends its sincere condolences to the families and friends of those killed and wishes the injured children a fast and complete recovery.

Attacks on children and their school facility are unacceptable and can be a grave violation of childrens rights. School facilities should always be a safe place for every child, where children can learn, play and grow to reach their full potential.

UNICEF reiterates its call on all parties to protect children from all forms of violence at all times and under all circumstances, and to respect the Safe Schools Declaration.

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UNICEF condemns attack on school in Koya, Kurdistan Region of Iraq and calls on all parties to respect the Safe Schools Declaration - UNICEF

It was the river that is said to have watered the biblical Garden of Eden and helped give birth to civilization itself.

But today the Tigris is dying.

Human activity and climate change have choked its once mighty flow through Iraq, where -- with its twin river the Euphrates -- it made Mesopotamia a cradle of civilization thousands of years ago.

Iraq may be oil-rich but the country is plagued by poverty after decades of war and by droughts and desertification.

Battered by one natural disaster after another, it is one of the five countries most exposed to climate change, according to the UN.

From April on, temperatures exceed 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) and intense sandstorms often turn the sky orange, covering the country in a film of dust.

Hellish summers see the mercury top a blistering 50 degrees Celsius -- near the limit of human endurance -- with frequent power cuts shutting down air-conditioning for millions.

The Tigris, the lifeline connecting the storied cities of Mosul, Baghdad and Basra, has been choked by dams, most of them upstream in Turkey, and falling rainfall.

An AFP video journalist travelled along the river's 1,500-kilometre (900-mile) course through Iraq, from the rugged Kurdish north to the Gulf in the south, to document the ecological disaster that is forcing people to change their ancient way of life.

Kurdish north: 'Less water every day'

The Tigris' journey through Iraq begins in the mountains of autonomous Kurdistan, near the borders of Turkey and Syria, where local people raise sheep and grow potatoes.

"Our life depends on the Tigris," said farmer Pibo Hassan Dolmassa, 41, wearing a dusty coat, in the town of Faysh Khabur. "All our work, our agriculture, depends on it.

"Before, the water was pouring in torrents," he said, but over the last two or three years "there is less water every day".

Iraq's government and Kurdish farmers accuse Turkey, where the Tigris has its source, of withholding water in its dams, dramatically reducing the flow into Iraq.

According to Iraqi official statistics, the level of the Tigris entering Iraq has dropped to just 35 percent of its average over the past century.

Baghdad regularly asks Ankara to release more water.

But Turkey's ambassador to Iraq, Ali Riza Guney, urged Iraq to "use the available water more efficiently", tweeting in July that "water is largely wasted in Iraq".

He may have a point, say experts. Iraqi farmers tend to flood their fields, as they have done since ancient Sumerian times, rather than irrigate them, resulting in huge water losses.

Central plains: 'We sold everything'

All that is left of the River Diyala, a tributary that meets the Tigris near the capital Baghdad in the central plains, are puddles of stagnant water dotting its parched bed.

Drought has dried up the watercourse that is crucial to the region's agriculture.

This year authorities have been forced to reduce Iraq's cultivated areas by half, meaning no crops will be grown in the badly-hit Diyala Governorate.

"We will be forced to give up farming and sell our animals," said Abu Mehdi, 42, who wears a white djellaba robe.

"We were displaced by the war" against Iran in the 1980s, he said, "and now we are going to be displaced because of water. Without water, we can't live in these areas at all."

The farmer went into debt to dig a 30-metre (100-foot) well to try to get water. "We sold everything," Abu Mehdi said, but "it was a failure".

The World Bank warned last year that much of Iraq is likely to face a similar fate.

"By 2050 a temperature increase of one degree Celsius and a precipitation decrease of 10 percent would cause a 20 percent reduction of available freshwater," it said.

"Under these circumstances, nearly one third of the irrigated land in Iraq will have no water."

Water scarcity hitting farming and food security are already among the "main drivers of rural-to-urban migration" in Iraq, the UN and several non-government groups said in June.

And the International Organization for Migration said last month that "climate factors" had displaced more than 3,300 families in Iraq's central and southern areas in the first three months of this year.

"Climate migration is already a reality in Iraq," the IOM said.

Baghdad: sandbanks and pollution

This summer in Baghdad, the level of the Tigris dropped so low that people played volleyball in the middle of the river, splashing barely waist-deep through its waters.

Iraq's Ministry of Water Resources blame silt because of the river's reduced flow, with sand and soil once washed downstream now settling to form sandbanks.

Until recently the Baghdad authorities used heavy machinery to dredge the silt, but with cash tight, work has slowed.

Years of war have destroyed much of Iraq's water infrastructure, with many cities, factories, farms and even hospitals left to dump their waste straight into the river.

As sewage and rubbish from Greater Baghdad pour into the shrinking Tigris, the pollution creates a concentrated toxic soup that threatens marine life and human health.

Environmental policies have not been a high priority for Iraqi governments struggling with political, security and economic crises.

Ecological awareness also remains low among the general public, said activist Hajer Hadi of the Green Climate group, even if "every Iraqi feels climate change through rising temperatures, lower rainfall, falling water levels and dust storms," she said.

South: salt water, dead palms

"You see these palm trees? They are thirsty," said Molla al-Rached, a 65-year-old farmer, pointing to the brown skeletons of what was once a verdant palm grove.

"They need water! Should I try to irrigate them with a glass of water?" he asked bitterly. "Or with a bottle?"

"There is no fresh water, there is no more life," said the farmer, a beige keffiyeh scarf wrapped around his head.

He lives at Ras al-Bisha where the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates river, the Shatt al-Arab, empties into the Gulf, near the borders with Iran and Kuwait.

In nearby Basra -- once dubbed the Venice of the Middle East -- many of the depleted waterways are choked with rubbish.

To the north, much of the once famed Mesopotamian Marshes -- the vast wetland home to the "Marsh Arabs" and their unique culture -- have been reduced to desert since Saddam Hussein drained them in the 1980s to punish its population.

But another threat is impacting the Shatt al-Arab: salt water from the Gulf is pushing ever further upstream as the river flow declines.

The UN and local farmers say rising salination is already hitting farm yields, in a trend set to worsen as global warming raises sea levels.

Al-Rached said he has to buy water from tankers for his livestock, and wildlife is now encroaching into settled areas in search of water.

"My government doesn't provide me with water," he said. "I want water, I want to live. I want to plant, like my ancestors."

River delta: a fisherman's plight

Standing barefoot in his boat like a Venetian gondolier, fisherman Naim Haddad steers it home as the sun sets on the waters of the Shatt al-Arab.

"From father to son, we have dedicated our lives to fishing," said the 40-year-old holding up the day's catch.

In a country where grilled carp is the national dish, the father-of-eight is proud that he receives "no government salary, no allowances".

But salination is taking its toll as it pushes out the most prized freshwater species which are replaced by ocean fish.

"In the summer, we have salt water," said Haddad. "The sea water rises and comes here."

Last month local authorities reported that salt levels in the river north of Basra reached 6,800 parts per million -- nearly seven times that of fresh water.

Haddad can't switch to fishing at sea because his small boat is unsuitable for the choppier Gulf waters, where he would also risk run-ins with the Iranian and Kuwaiti coastguards.

And so the fisherman is left at the mercy of Iraq's shrinking rivers, his fate tied to theirs.

"If the water goes," he said, "the fishing goes. And so does our livelihood."

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Twilight of the Tigris: Iraq's Mighty River Drying Up - Voice of America - VOA News

IT was the theme park tragedy that rocked America.

The horrifying death of an Iraq war hero who was thrown from a 208ft rollercoaster at 50mph at the Darien Lake Theme Park and Resort in Buffalo, New York.

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Sgt James Thomas Hackemer, 29, died in July 2011 after riding the Ride of Steel coaster during a family trip.

He had already overcome huge adversity after losing both his legs in a roadside bomb attackin 2008.

That forced him to have to relearn how to eat, speak and write, the US Department of Veteran Affairs wrote.

But after a long and tough recovery, James was enjoying being able to spend time with his loved ones once again.

And part of that was enjoying days out with his two young daughters and teenage nephew, who had all gone with him to the park on the day of his death.

James' nephew Ashton Luffred, then 19, told news outlets his uncle said: "Im going to put my hands up when we go down."

But what unfolded would be a scene from a horror movie.

Eyewitnesses looked on as he fell around 150ft to his death.

The ride rules had required that riders have both legs, investigators said.

James had not been wearing his prosthetic legsat the time of the incident.

Luffred told The New York Post: "The last time I saw him was when he was flying out.

"He didnt have anything holding him down.

"By the time Id realized that he was pretty far out of the seat, he was too far for me to grab, and at that speed, even if I were able to catch his shirt, it wouldnt have done much."

Hackemer was at the front of the coaster when he fell to his death.

His family said no questions were asked about the disabled veteran's decision to ride by operators.

State labor authorities said in 2011 they were found to not have been properly trained to observe safety rules, Reuters reported.

The Labor Department said: "The Parks safety and operational requirements, which were visibly posted at the entrance to the Ride of Steel, were not followed by the ride operators.

"These rules require that riders have both legs because the safety devices restrain the legs, shins, and lap to hold the rider safely in the rides car."

James' family later sued Darien Lake Theme Park and Resortfor wrongful death.

A seven-figure settlement was reached in 2013, the Associated Press reported.

James' sister, Jody Hackemer, said: "He was determined to ride every roller coaster.

"That minute he was on that ride, he probably felt the happiest and most normal he's felt in three and a half years."

"He always said the wittiest things to make people laugh, and nine times out of 10 it was directed at himself," Jody added.

"He had a thirst for life and wanted to do as much as possible."

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Chilling last words of Iraq war hero, 29, before death plunge from 208ft rollercoaster in tragedy that... - The US Sun