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Observers of Iraq were shocked this week by the most tectonic shift in the countrys politics since the defeat of the self-proclaimed Islamic State. Muqtada al-Sadr, the mercurial, firebrand cleric, in the wake of his electoral victory in Iraqs October elections, suddenly directed all the members of his political movement to resign from the Iraqi parliament.

To say this action was stunning would be an understatement. Iraq watchers immediately began to wonder if this was just a threat and was reversible (it appears not though few things are ever final in Iraqi politics), or whether Sadr genuinely intends to go to the street and watch as the Iraqi political system collapses (perhaps with a push from his cadres).

Analysts have been unsuccessfully trying to determine Sadrs motivations for almost two decades now, and getting into the rationale for this decision is difficult. But in general, there appear to be two theories, though mostly still whispered Sadr is either making a very clever play to increase his legitimacy as there is no way to redeem the current system, or he has made a huge political mistake, ceding the initiative to his rivals.

The immediate effect is to tear apart the Tripartite Alliance between the (more or less) unified Sunni block, the Barzanis Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), and Sadrs Sairoon Party. Iraqs election law dictates that in the event of a resignation, the seat goes to the candidate who came closest to winning. Since the Sadrist strength is in the Shia regions, these seats should all go to various Shia-based parties the Hashd-aligned Fatah, former Prime Minister Nouri al-Malikis State of Law, and a unified list between former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and the Hikma party of Ammar al-Hakim. Smaller parties and independents will also take some of the seats. As the first three of these have unified into a block known as the Coordinating Framework (or just the Framework or even the Frame), they should now have a somewhat overwhelming 120-ish seats or about a full third of the total parliament. The government is clearly theirs to form.

Assuming that the new parliamentarians take their oaths without incident, the Iraqi parliament should then move quickly to form its long-delayed government. Muhammad Halboosi was already elected as the speaker months ago, but the deputy speaker (a position informally but forcefully reserved for a Shia politician) is one of the resigned Sadrists, so that position will need to be filled immediately, almost certainly by a member of Fatah.

The next task will then be to elect a president. This will remain the bottleneck in government formation, for two reasons. First, unlike all the other offices, which require mere majority votes, election of the president requires a two-thirds majority and a two-thirds quorum. The inability to put together a quorum for a presidential vote has been the stumbling block for the past months as Sadr attempted to form his government. Second, the two major Kurdish parties, the KDP and the Talabani-led Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, are at odds over the presidency. The office is currently held by a stalwart of the latter, Barham Salih, perhaps Iraqs most notable figure on the international stage. And the Framework is deeply indebted to Talabanis party, as it stood by them in helping to block the formation of the Sadrist government. However, the KDP remains particularly with the Sadrists having gone to the wilderness the most unified large party in Iraq. Forming a government without the approval, however grudging, of their patriarch Masoud Barzani, former president of Iraqi Kurdistan, will be very difficult. So all eyes will be on the Kurdish north as interlocutors attempt to broker a deal between the two parties to gain consensus as to whether Salih remains in the presidency, or the KDP nominee Rebar Ahmed Khalid Barzani takes the post. It is possible (though it would be legally tricky) that a third compromise candidate could emerge.

Once the presidency is resolved, the rest of the process should move quickly. The division of ministries between the three ethno-sectarian groups is well understood by precedent (13 to Shia, six to Sunni, three to Kurds, and one each to Turkmen and Christians) and no attempt to change the traditional distribution is expected. The Shia (meaning the Framework) will control the Ministries of Oil, Electricity, Health, and Interior. The Sunni will control the Ministries of Defense, Planning, and Industry. The only question will be whether the Kurds have as their major prize the Finance Ministry or the Foreign Affairs Ministry (the Kurdish share has flipped between the two ministries in the past two governments, with the Shia taking the other), but that decision has been relatively amicably made in past formations and should not be a major issue.

The first-order question asked is who will be the prime minister. It is too soon to name names, though plenty are circulating. But most sources agree that the Framework has decided on three primary qualifications that he (almost certainly a he) should be a politician, not a technocrat, a strong enough figure to effectively lead, and acceptable to the international community (meaning Washington, London, and Brussels as well as Tehran, Ankara, and the Gulf Cooperation Council). This test excludes figures such as Nouri al Maliki, Hadi al-Ameri, Falah Fayyad, and Adnan Zurfi, as well as the current prime minister, Mustafa Kadhimi, all of whom are otherwise serious aspirants.

Initial indicators are that the Framework realizes the challenge that Sadrs action presents to them, and that taking actions to shore up international legitimacy and integration will be high on the agenda. Of course, reform attempts have been often promised and seldom delivered by past governments, so a strong measure of skepticism even cynicism is certainly understandable. And the large amounts of money involved the Iraqi government is flush with unexpected billions of petrodollars, thanks to current high oil prices certainly raises the suspicion based on past experience that the winning parties will be unable to keep themselves from looting the treasury for private gain.

So expect to see a government in relatively short order, within about two months. But the West should watch carefully with really one question in mind. Is this a government that intends to turn in on itself, refuse to take necessary reforms, and isolate itself from the international system? Or will Iraqs elites finally realize that change is required, and implement the necessary reforms for integration into the world system, beginning with infrastructure physical and regulatory at home?

This is of course a big and complex question. But some indicators will be fairly simple. Will Iraq use its bounty to remedy the states inability to provide sufficient electricity and clean water to its citizens? Will the presence of the United States and NATO training missions be regularized and legitimized? Will capturing of flare gas be a priority? Will Iraq make serious attempts to court international business, beyond oil and electricity?

Finally, what of Sadr and the Sadrists? Though out of government, they remain serious actors. Sadr has at least two primary weapons: the ability to mass large groups of unarmed demonstrators, using nonviolent resistance, and his militia, the Peace Brigades of Saraya al-Salam. Either or both could metastasize Iraqs instability, and the impoverished underclasses from which Sadr draws his followers may believe they have little to lose. Countering Sadrs likely attempts to undermine the already weak system will further challenge the Framework-headed government.

Iraq remains fragile. Climate change has buffeted the country already this summer with record heat and sandstorms and the Tigris is flowing at near-record lows. Voter cynicism resulted in low turnout last fall. Demographics bring one million new Iraqi citizens who need jobs into the adult ranks each year. And now a major social current the Sadrist trend will be outside the government openly waiting for (and perhaps attempting to accelerate) the total collapse of the system. The challenges remain huge, but even small steps that acknowledge the scope of the problem would be encouraging. Whether this still unformed government can take them will be their test.

Douglas Ollivant is a former NSC Director for Iraq. He is a senior fellow at New America and managing partner at Mantid International, which has U.S. and Western clients in Federal Iraq. Follow on Twitter at @DouglasOllivant.

Image: Iraqi government

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A Post-Sadr Iraq? - War on the Rocks

ByMuhammad Baqir Muhyedeen

Although not a new phenomenon in the region, Iraq has faced an unprecedented number of dust and sandstorms since the beginning of this millennium. A few decades ago, Iraq would experience a storm or two a year during the winter season. However, this year, Iraq has already surpassed ten sandstorms during the past two months alone.

These meteorological events, which typically last three to five hours and can reach heights up to five thousand feet, are a hindrance to the average Iraqi civilian. These storms cause many to stay indoors for the duration of the event, followed by countless hours of cleaning as the grains of sand travel into even garment drawers. At times, the settling of the dust and sand particles can last for days. However, these dust and sandstorms have a more dire effect on the nation as a whole, including government and military operations. This piece will examine what is causing the increase of dust and sandstorms in Iraq, the socio-economic costs, and what actions can be taken to mitigate and potentially eliminate them.

Storms on the horizon

The storms cause fatalities around the country and long-term respiratory illnesses by inhaling sand and dust. This year, over ten thousand people were hospitalized, with at least five recorded deaths from the sandstorms that swept through Iraq. As a result of these dire conditions, this year, the Iraqi government shut down for many ministerial and provincial workers. The sandstorms even temporarily suspended all flights into the affected regions in Iraq, including the capital, Baghdad. These sandstorms are viewed as an aviation nightmare, as they drastically decrease the visibility for commercial and military pilots, often grounding all flights as the storm passes.

There appear to be no studies on the economic cost of dust and sandstorms in Iraq; however, a few have been conducted on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region that put a dollar figure on the cost. The World Bank did the most comprehensive study in 2019, which found that the economic cost of premature deaths caused by sand and dust inhalation increased by 123 percent between 1990 and 2013 to $141 billion. The report explains that, in 2013, Iraq suffered 10,400 premature deaths due to dust in the air, which cost the economy almost $15 billion, or 3 percent of the years gross domestic product. The 2019 World Bank study estimates direct costs from grounded flights, lost crops, and production halted by government-ordered holidays at $13 billion, bringing the MENA regions total economic cost from dust and sandstorms to over $154 billion annually.

Due to the inaction of the Iraqi government and civil society, the Environment Ministry stated in April that, over the past two decades, dusty days in Iraq have increased from 243 to 272 days per year, and warned that they are expected to reach three hundred days per year by 2050. Iraq is currently experiencing dust and sandstorms throughout all seasons of the year due to climate change, regional drought, desertification, and a decrease in water reservesall factors that have led to dust accumulation. Studies have found that as much as 71 percent of agricultural land in the once Fertile Crescent is threatened by desertification due to climate change, which is decreasing the vegetation coverthe main factor for soil stabilization. According to a 2019 report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Iraq is the fifth-most vulnerable nation in the world to the effects of climate change.

Additionally, Iraqi officials claim that water reserves in Iraq have decreased over 50 percent over the past year due to poor rainfall and the water levels of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, which account for 98 percent of Iraqs water reserves combined. The rivers are currently expected to dry up by 2040 if no actions are taken due to lower water levels and climate change.

The Tigris and Euphrates Rivers originate in Turkey and flow to the Shatt al-Arab Basin in Iraq, while the Euphrates crosses through Syria before flowing to Iraq. Due to the Iraqi governments inaction, plans by Turkey that alter river flows are major contributing factors to the drying up in Iraq. The Turkish government, which is constructing hydropower plants on the banks of the rivers, boasts that their plans are an abundant source of carbon-free electricity. However, experts warn that the dam is taking a human and environmental toll. This, alongside the lack of rainfall, which is decreasing vegetation cover, makes Iraq vulnerable to the microbursts of winds, expanding dust and sandstorms.

What can be done?

First and foremost, its crucial to reiterate the importance that Iraq takes expedited measures to address all factors contributing to the increase in dust and sandstorms. The Iraqi government must adopt a cultural and legislative overhaul that is more eco-conscious, so that every citizen is self-aware of how they contribute to the demise of an inhabitable Iraq.

Possible solutions include legislation that re-cultivates desertified lands by increasing agriculture and encouraging farmers to plant orchards and other crops around cities, towns, and villages. In the 1980s, an estimated thirty million date palm trees were growing in Iraq. However, due to actions taken by the Baathist regime under Iraqi Dictator Saddam Hussein and a chaotic post-2003 invasion, Iraq currently has less than twelve million palm trees. In 1995, Iraq had some of the worlds most productive soils, with agriculture representing more than 18 percent of the nations economy. Today, however, it accounts for less than 2 percent. Modern irrigation techniquessuch as drip and spray irrigationneed to also become the norm in Iraq, for these techniques significantly reduce water loss by farmers.

Other solutions include the Iraqi government creating environmental reserves with diverse plants and animals far from population centers. These reserves will serve as more vital vegetation cover and will also serve as a catalyst for new ecosystems to prosper in Iraq. The Iraqi government should also adopt legislation that eliminates the unauthorized exploitation of natural resources, including sand, which is used for building materials as the encroachment of sand destabilizes the ground, allowing microbursts of wind to carry more sand during the storms.

This phenomenon threatening life in Iraq isnt unprecedented, as many of Iraqs neighboring nations have already commenced addressing the threat of climate change. Iraq can benefit from the experiences of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and others, and utilize published studies to see what methods may be more effective in addressing climate change within its borders. To effectively combat the threat of climate change in the MENA region, it is imperative that all neighboring nations work together to devise a climate change plan that considers the safeguarding of all inhabitants of the region.

The truth is that, in order to combat climate change effectively and in a timely matter, Iraq cannot combat it alone. Upon becoming a party to the Paris Agreement at COP26, the United Nations called on the international community to stand in solidarity with Iraq as it combats climate change. This can be done through funding from the international community, coming with expert-set stipulations and tracked through international bodies like UNEP.

Through some of the above-proposed methods and more research, the Iraqi government and population can take the necessary steps to protect their country from the changing climate and safeguard Iraq for future generations.

Muhammad Baqir Muhyedeen is the policy program manager at the Muslim Public Affairs Council (MPAC) and an expert on Iraqi affairs. Follow him on Twitter: @mbmdeen.

Image: A man walks on a bridge during a sandstorm in Baghdad, Iraq, May 23, 2022. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani

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Iraq's sandstorms are threatening life in the Fertile Crescent. It's time the Iraqi government takes a stance. - Atlantic Council

Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) The Iraqi Minister of Water Resources, Mahdi Rashid Al-Hamdani, confirmed on Thursday that Baghdad rejects the interference of Turkey and Iran in the countrys water policy, and added that the future of water relations with Iran has become unknown, according to an interview with Al-Arabiya/Al-Hadath news.

The ministers statement comes in a time where Iraq suffers from a water crisis ongoing for years, exacerbated by Iranian and Turkish violations, and by the increasing impacts of climate change.

Hamdani stressed the need to push Tehran and Ankara to admit Iraq rights of water. He added that the Iraqi government started to internationalize the water issue with Iran as it previously sent a protest note to the Iranian government but did not receive a response.

Hamdani emphasized that Iran cut off more than 40 tributaries of the river which significantly affected Iraqs water share.

The Iraqi minister indicated that the country has domestic issues related to the water, as is the case with Turkey, Iran and other countries.

We have started to transform the irrigation system from open to closed, and this is considered a step forward in confronting climate change, Hamdani said.

Iraq has been suffering for years from a water crisis as Turkey built dams along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, preventing water from flowing at its previous levels into Iraqi lands. Also, Iran cut off many tributaries and rivers which worsened the situation in Iraq.

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Iraq: Future of water relations with Iran unknown - Iraqi News

Baghdad, 24 June 2022: The Government of Norway has made a new contribution NOK 70 million (approximately US$ 7.5 million) to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Iraqs Funding Facility for Stabilization (FFS), which supports stabilization, durable solutions, and the safe return of internally displaced Iraqis in the five governorates liberated from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

This is Norways fourteenth contribution to FFS since 2015, bringing its total support to over US$ 72 million. Norways previous contributions have supported the implementation of 131 critical projects in the liberated areas, benefitting more than 3 million people

We are grateful to Norway for this timely additional contribution to the Facility. With the extension of the FFS mandate until 2023, the most critical remaining priority needs are estimated at approximately US$ 300 million for 2022-23 required to address the most critical remaining stabilization needs across the five governorates of Anbar, Diyala, Ninewa, Kirkuk and Salah al-Din. We believe that continued support is critical to secure Iraqs still-fragile stability, says UNDP Resident Representative for Iraq, Zena Ali Ahmad.

With the generous support of donors like Norway, and in partnership with the Government of Iraq, UNDP has completed more than 3,100 critical stabilization projects across the liberated areas. Looking ahead, we are focusing on remaining critical needs in priority locations and sectors, working toward durable solutions to safeguard the hard-won stabilization gains made since 2015, and target the most vulnerable IDPs, adds Ms. Ali Ahmad.

Norwegian Ambassador to Jordan and Iraq, Ambassador Espen Lindbck says, I am very impressed by the work that the UNDP is doing in Iraq and the very concrete results achieved over the years. The FFS has ensured the possibility for many Iraqis to return to their homes in a safe, sustainable, and dignified manner. Norway is proud of this partnership and happy to support FFS in its last phase. I strongly encourage the Government of Iraq to take over and build on the activities of the FFS to ensure the continuation and sustainability of the gains made, to ensure the safe return of displaced Iraqis.

In addition to rehabilitating key infrastructure and basic services, in 2022, FFS will place greater emphasis on promoting livelihood and employment opportunities through the rehabilitation of supportive infrastructure for productive sectors, such as agriculture and small industries as well as capacity support to local government counterparts.

Media Contact:

Mrinalini Santhanam, Communication Specialist | +9647901931308

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Norway reaffirms its commitment to stabilization in Iraq with US$ 7.5 million contribution [EN/AR] - Iraq - ReliefWeb

06/23/2022 Iraq (International Christian Concern) The Islamic State, during its rampage in Iraq, ravaged many Christian historical sites. Among these sites was the Syriac Orthodox Mar Thomas Church in Mosul. Recently, however, archeological workers restoring this church discovered some one dozen ancient relics and parchments connected to several saints. Reportedly, the relics included manuscripts in Syriac and Aramaic as well as six stone containers wrought with Aramaic inscriptions. Some relics found in the church relate to Saint Theodore, Saint Simon, Mor Gabriel, Saint Simeon, and other well-known figures.

The Syriac Orthodox Mar Thomas Church dates back to the 7th century CE and is thought to have been built on the site where the Apostle Thomas lived while in Mosul. The conflict against the Islamic State was not the first time the church has seen the carnage of war in its extensive history. Significantly, the church was damaged by the Persians and by the Ottoman Empire in an 18th-centuryconflict between the two; the damage was so extensive that the church needed to be essentially rebuilt. The current effort to repair the damage done by ISIS in the battle of Mosul over 4 years ago began last year in 2021. The International Alliance for the Protection of Heritage in Conflict Areas, collaborating with the Iraqi government, put $328,000 towards the project.

The discovery of the hidden relics at this church is another encouraging development in the broad effort to restore and protect Christian cultural heritage in Iraq after the damage done by the Islamic State. Other ongoing efforts to renovate historic sites in Iraq include UNESCOs restoration plan, Reviving the Spirit of Mosul, which has allocated over $100 million towards restoration projects. Perhaps workers will uncover more undiscovered pieces of history as they sort through the archeological remains of Christianitys long history in Iraq.

For interviews, please contact: press@persecution.org.

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New Relics Discovered in ISIS Ravaged Church in Iraq - International Christian Concern