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BAGHDAD The United States is grappling with a rapidly evolving threat from Iranian proxies in Iraq after militia forces specialized in operating more sophisticated weaponry, including armed drones, have hit some of the most sensitive American targets in attacks that evaded U.S. defenses.

At least three times in the past two months, those militias have used small, explosive-laden drones that divebomb and crash into their targets in late-night attacks on Iraqi bases including those used by the C.I.A. and U.S. Special Operations units, according to American officials.

Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., the top American commander in the Middle East, said last month that the drones pose a serious threat and that the military was rushing to devise ways to combat them.

Iran weakened by years of harsh economic sanctions is using its proxy militias in Iraq to step up pressure on the United States and other world powers to negotiate an easing of those sanctions as part of a revival of the 2015 nuclear deal. Iraqi and American officials say Iran has designed the drone attacks to minimize casualties that could prompt U.S. retaliation.

Michael P. Mulroy, a former C.I.A. officer and top Middle East policy official at the Pentagon, said that with technology provided by Irans Quds Force the foreign-facing arm of Irans security apparatus the drones are rapidly becoming more sophisticated at a relatively low cost.

The drones are a big deal, one of the most significant threats our troops there face, he said.

A senior Iraqi national security official said the drones posed a challenge, but were tools, not the heart of the problem.

This is a means of pressure, said the official, who asked not to be identified so he could speak freely about Iran. Iran is suffocating economically. The more it suffers the more these attacks increase, he added. The problem is the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

Iran has used proxy militias in Iraq since 2003 to influence Iraqi politics and threaten the United States outside its borders.

Since late 2019, Iran-backed Iraqi Shiite militias have conducted more than 300 attacks against U.S. interests, killing four Americans and about 25 others, mostly Iraqis, according to a Defense Intelligence Agency assessment published in April. In the last year, a proliferation of previously unknown armed groups have emerged, some claiming responsibility for rocket attacks on U.S. targets.

The increased precision of the drone strikes this year marks an escalation from the more common Katyusha rocket attacks that U.S. officials have viewed more as harassment. Those attacks, launched from mobile launchers, have been aimed at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdads Green Zone and military bases where some 2,500 U.S. forces and thousands of American military contractors operate.

In contrast, some American analysts say that the militants are now targeting sites, even specific aircraft hangars, where sophisticated armed MQ-9 Reaper drones and contractor-operated turboprop surveillance aircraft are stationed in an attempt to disrupt or cripple the U.S. reconnaissance capability critical to monitoring threats in Iraq.

The United States has used Reapers for its most sensitive strikes, including the killing of Irans top security and intelligence commander, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a senior Iraqi government official and a leader of Iraqs militia groups, in Baghdad in January 2020.

While the United States has installed defenses to counter rocket, artillery and mortar systems at installations in Iraq, the armed drones fly too low to be detected by those defenses, officials said.

Shortly before midnight on April 14, a drone strike targeted a C.I.A. hangar inside the airport complex in the northern Iraqi city of Erbil, according to three American officials familiar with the matter.

No one was reported hurt in the attack, but it alarmed Pentagon and White House officials because of the covert nature of the facility and the sophistication of the strike, details of which were previously reported by The Washington Post.

A similar drone attack in the early morning hours of May 8 on the sprawling Ayn al-Asad air base in western Anbar Province where the United States also operates Reaper drones also raised concerns among American commanders about militias shifting tactics. The attack caused no injuries but damaged an aircraft hangar, according to Col. Wayne Marotto, a spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq.

Three days later, another drone struck just after midnight at an airfield in Harir, north of Erbil, that is used by the militarys highly secretive Joint Special Operations Command. The explosive-laden drone crashed, causing no injuries or damage, coalition officials said, but fueled the growing worries.

While many attacks against U.S. targets almost immediately generate claims of responsibility from militias, the more complex and longer-range drone strikes have not, a further indication that Iran is behind them, according to the American officials and independent analysts.

There is increasing evidence that Iran is trying to have or has created some special groups, new ones that are able to conduct very sophisticated attacks against the U.S. interests, said Hamdi Malik, an associate fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who focuses on Shiite militias.

U.S. forces in Iraq operate under strict Iraqi guidelines focused on fighting the Islamic State or ISIS. Iraq requires the U.S.-led coalition obtain approval to run surveillance drones, which are focused on parts of Iraq where there are still ISIS pockets and generally puts the entire south of the country, a militia stronghold, off limits.

There have been no U.S. forces or diplomats based south of Baghdad since the U.S. closed its consulate in the city of Basra three years ago, citing Iranian threats.

Its a very successful way to attack, said Michael Pregent, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute and a former U.S. intelligence officer deployed in Iraq. It allows these attacks to be launched from areas outside of the U.S. military presence in Iraq.

Mr. Pregent said satellite surveillance, by its nature, could be used to cover other parts of Iraq only for limited times and could not track moving targets.

In addition to the attacks on American targets in Iraq, an armed drone believed to have been launched from the south of Iraq hit the Saudi royal palace in Riyadh in January. Saudi Arabia and Iran are longtime archrivals for regional power and influence and at groundbreaking talks between them in Baghdad in April, the Saudis demanded that Iran stop those attacks, according to Iraqi officials.

While visiting northeastern Syria last month, General McKenzie, the top American commander for the region, said military officials were developing ways to disrupt or disable communications between the drones and their operators, bolster radar sensors to identify approaching threats more rapidly, and find effective ways to down the aircraft.

In each of the known attacks in Iraq, at least some of the drones remnants have been partially recovered, and preliminary analyses indicated they were made in Iran or used technology provided by Iran, according to the three American officials familiar with the incidents.

These drones are larger than the commercially available quadcopters small helicopters with four rotors that the Islamic State used in the battle of Mosul, but smaller than the MQ-9 Reapers, which have a 66-foot wingspan. Military analysts say they carry between 10 and 60 pounds of explosives.

Iraqi officials and U.S. analysts say that while cash-strapped Iran has reduced funding for major Iraqi militias, it has invested in splitting off smaller, more specialized proxies still operating within the larger militias but not under their direct command.

American officials say that these specialized units are likely to have been entrusted with the politically delicate mission of carrying out the new drone strikes.

Iraqi security commanders say groups with new names are fronts for the traditional, powerful Iran-backed militias in Iraq such as Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq. Iraqi officials say Iran has used the new groups to try to camouflage, in discussions with the Iraqi government, its responsibility for strikes targeting U.S. interests, which often end up killing Iraqis.

The Iraqi security official said members of the smaller, specialized groups were being trained at Iraqi bases and in Lebanon as well as in Iran by the hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps which oversees proxy militias in the Middle East.

American and Iraqi officials and analysts trace the increased unpredictability of militia operations in Iraq to the U.S. killing of General Suleimani and the Iraqi militia leader.

Because the Iranian control over its militias has fragmented after the killing of Qassim Suleimani and Abu Mahdi Muhandis, the competition has increased among these groups, said Mr. Malik, the Washington Institute analyst.

Jane Arraf reported from Baghdad and Eric Schmitt from Washington. Falih Hassan contributed reporting.

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Irans Proxies in Iraq Threaten U.S. With More Sophisticated Weapons - The New York Times

On the fifth anniversary of the enforced disappearance of at least 643 Iraqi men and boys by Popular Mobilization Unit (PMU) militias during military operations to retake control of Fallujah from the so-called Islamic State group, Lynn Maalouf, Deputy Director for the Middle East and North Africa at Amnesty International said:

"For five years, the families of these men and boys have been living in anguish, not knowing the fate of their loved ones, or whether they are even alive. Young boys were ripped away from their parents and entire families torn apart. The families deserve to know what happened to their loved ones. They deserve an end to their suffering.

For five years, the families of these men and boys have been living in anguish, not knowing the fate of their loved ones, or whether they are even alive

"To date, the Iraqi authorities have never publicly revealed the outcome of an investigation into disappearances and abuses committed during the retaking of Fallujah, leaving families in a perpetual state of limbo.

The Iraqi authorities must end this anguish and reveal the fate and whereabouts of those forcibly disappeared by the PMU. We also urge the authorities to publicly disclose the findings of their official investigation and hold those responsible to account."

Background

On the morning of 3 June 2016, thousands of men, women and children fleeing the area of Saqlawiya in the Anbar region were met by a group of men armed with machine guns and assault rifles. Witnesses identified the armed men as members of the PMU based on emblems on their uniforms and flags. The armed men took an estimated 1,300 men and boys considered to be of fighting age away from their families. At sunset, at least 643 men and boys were boarded onto buses and a large truck. Their fate remains unknown. The remaining men were taken to what survivors described as the yellow house, where they reported being tortured and subjected to other ill-treatment.

On 5 June 2016, the Office of Iraqs then-Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, set up a committee to investigate disappearances and abuses committed in the context of military operations to retake Fallujah. The committees findings have never been made public. The Iraqi authorities did not respond to Amnesty Internationals request for information at the time.

The PMU are comprised of large, well-established militia groups and are legally considered part of the Iraqi Armed Forces.

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Iraq: Reveal whereabouts of 643 men and boys disappeared five years ago - Amnesty International

Drivers of crisis in the Iraqi Marshlands: environmental degradation displacing vulnerable people, raising conflicts over loss of livelihoods and access to natural resources and economic migration from rural to urban areas are three main drivers of the crisis

Water-induced Displaced: water degradation led to the displacement of communities and the creation of waterinduced Internally Displaced People (IDP). In a survey conducted by IOM in 2019 a total of 5,347 families were water-induced IDP in four southern governorates, with 60% of the displaced originated from Thi Qar Governorate

Conflicts over livelihoods and resources: an analysis of 1,793 security incidents for the period January 2016 to September 2020 in the Southern Governorates of Iraq shows an increased trend, especially in violent protests due to the lost of jobs and livelihoods, as well as in inter-tribal conflicts over natural resources, especially land and water Water resources are largely at the center of conflict areas in Basra and Thi Qar Governorates, and on the whole over 21,000 Km of rivers and water canals are located in areas affected by security incidents

Originally posted here:
Restoring the Marshlands of Iraq: drivers of crisis (01/06/2021) - Iraq - ReliefWeb

A previously unknown Iraqi Shia militia calling itself Ktaib al-Sabiqoun issued a warning to Israel this week. In grammatically challenged Hebrew, the statement read, If you bomb us, we will bomb you. It is likely that this statement was in fact issued by one of the established pro-Iranian militias. It is common practice for these organizations to adopt and discard new names when engaging in areas beyond their usual zones of activity.Ktaib al-Sabiqouns warning comes in the wake of a recent comment by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinting that during the recent fighting in Gaza, Iran sought to send an armed drone toward Israel from Iraq or Syria. The statement also coincides with growing concerns in Washington regarding the increasing intensity of the Shia militias campaign against the US presence in Iraq, specifically in the area of drone attacks. At the public level in Iraq, meanwhile, protests took place this week against the ongoing murder campaign by the Shia militias against Iraqi civil society activists and oppositionists.

All these sets of events are linked. The Iranian strategy for Iraq is clear, and resembles in its essentials the project already close to completion in Lebanon. It is exemplified by the targeting of the three enemies noted above namely Israel, the US/West, and the domestic opponents of Irans local proxies.

The intention, along the lines of what has already been achieved in Lebanon, is that the formal structures of representative government should remain, but should be emptied of any meaningful content. Political military structures in the service of Iran will enjoy freedom of action and will possess military capacities superior to those of the nominal forces of the state.

The latter, meanwhile, will themselves be thoroughly penetrated by the Iranian power structure. Political forces hostile to this project will be disposed of, or intimidated into, silence. The territory of the country will then be used both for the transportation of men and materiel in the direction of Israel, and for the deployment of missiles capable of reaching the territory of the Jewish state. The Iranian intention, as seen in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, is not to create a strong, coherent client state in Iraq. Rather, Tehran wants fragmented, dysfunctional structures within which the only powerful, cohesive element is the Iran-supported force itself.

At present in Iraq, this project is underway but is not yet near completion. A significant barrier to the realization of Tehrans goals is the remaining US military presence in the country. There are strong indications at present that the long smoldering Shia militia campaign against the US is set to increase in intensity. The intention is to pressure the US into departure.

In the latest incident, a rocket was fired at the Ain al-Asad base last week. US personnel are stationed at the base. Following the incident, Iraqi authorities arrested Qasim Muslih, commander of the Shia militias in Anbar Province. In response to the arrest, the militias then conducted a show of strength against the Green Zone, the center of the international presence in Baghdad. Heavily armed Shia militiamen traveling in military vehicles seized control of entry and exit points to the zone, holding them for several hours before dispersing.

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A number of articles in the US media in recent days have noted growing concerns in the US defense establishment regarding the tempo of militia attacks using drones or missiles against US facilities and personnel in Iraq. The Daily Caller political-opinion website quoted security sources who reported that the Pentagon intends to ask President Joe Biden for permission to carry out counter strikes against militia targets in Iraq. According to the report, the White House currently insists on green-lighting all US responses to militia attacks, and The Administration is looking hard at a broad range of responses to Shiite militia aggression against Americans in Iraq.

AGAINST THE background of the militia campaign, popular protests against the militias and their campaign of assassinations resumed this week. Gathering under the slogan Who killed me? demonstrators in Baghdad on May 25 protested the killing of civil society activist Ihab al-Wazni in the majority Shia town of Karbala on May 9.

According to one demonstrator interviewed by the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis (MECRA) in Baghdad, Al-Wazni is dangerous for them and their interests, so they killed him to protect themselves. These groups are always out there with guns, and they are continuing targeting people, and they are the only ones permitted to hold weapons. They are responsible for killing demonstrators and activists. The forces that are coming on the streets are supported by Iran and they are taking orders from them.

Another protester, Ali al-Khafaji, told MECRA, Agents have come from east of the border to destroy Iraq.... Wilayi (Pro-Iranian) militias and hired killers from Iranian intelligence are the ones who came from the east... Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Iranian Ministry of Intelligence. These two entered Iraq to make bloodshed here and to destroy it.

Since large-scale protests began in October 2019, around 600 demonstrators have been killed. An additional 82 Iraqis have lost their lives in targeted killings. At least one demonstrator was killed when security forces opened fire on the crowd in Tahrir Square on May 25. Participants claimed that the police commanders who gave the order to open fire are themselves members of the Badr Organization, a pro-Iran militia with a strong presence in the Iraqi police and security forces.

It is unclear if determined US action against the threat of the Shia militias will take place. The administration is engaged in negotiations on the nuclear issue with Tehran. It is likely that the determination to sign a new deal as soon as possible will prevent a determined and comprehensive response.

For Israel, events in Iraq are of deep relevance. Iran has already deployed missiles in the deserts of western Iraq, in the hands of its militias, which have Israel within range. The Iranian-made Zolfaqar missile has a claimed range of 750 km. (466 miles), putting Tel Aviv within its range if it is deployed in western Iraq. The distance from al-Qaim on the Iraqi-Syrian border to Tel Aviv is 632 km (393 miles).

In the event of the 1st Northern War, as Israeli defense planners call the scenario of a general war between Israel and Iran with its proxies, Iraq would play an important role in the transfer of weaponry. The Shia militias would be used to provide additional manpower for the Iranian side, as seen in the Syrian civil war. Missiles would almost certainly be launched from Iraqi soil.

Hence, whatever the origins and the seriousness of Ktaib al-Sabiqouns message, and the statement by Netanyahu that preceded it, Iraq is already part of the northern crescent of threats facing Israel. The US presence and broader US policy regarding Iran makes Israeli action in Iraq more complicated than similar actions in Syria, or potentially in Lebanon. As Israeli planners assess the Gaza events of recent weeks in light of the key scenario of a future war from the North, the growing threat from Iraq is likely to be a significant factor in their deliberations.

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The growing threat facing Israel from Iraq - The Jerusalem Post

Highlights

Cabinet calls on oil ministry to conduct 'appropriate' study

Some politicians have called for changes in financial terms of contracts

Oil majors operate some of Iraq's biggest fields

Iraq plans to conduct a study to review all oil and gas exploration and transport contracts with foreign companies, according to a Cabinet decision, amid calls by some politicians in OPEC's second-largest producer to amend some agreements with international oil companies.

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The oil ministry should conduct an "appropriate" study on the contracts, the Cabinet said in a June 1 statement carried by the state-run Iraqi News Agency. The Cabinet issued the decision following its regular weekly meeting.

Some members of parliament and other politicians often express concern about certain contracts signed with oil majors, which they believe carry unfair financial terms, a debate that has gone on for years.

The government of Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, which was elected in May last year, listed in its program at the time a number of measures that included plans to restore the country's oil market share and renegotiate contracts with IOCs.

Iraq wants to form a negotiating delegation to discuss amending technical service contracts with international oil companies in light of the current oil market developments, according to the program released in May 2020.

The current calls for a review now coincide with ExxonMobil's planned exit from the giant West Qurna 1 oil field in southern Iraq.

Iraq is considering buying Exxon's 32.7% stake in West Qurna 1, the country's oil minister said May 3, as the US major seeks to exit one of the world's largest oil fields with expected recoverable reserves of over 20 billion barrels.

Oil minister Ihsan Ismaael had previously said Iraq was in talks with potential unnamed US energy companies to take over Exxon's stake. Other partners in West Qurna 1 are PetroChina (32.7%), Japan's ITOCHU Corp. (19.6%), Indonesia's Pertamina (10%), and Iraq's Oil Exploration Co. (5%).

International oil companies in Iraq operate some of the country's biggest fields in return for a per barrel fee linked to production.

The terms of the contracts have been a point of contention over the years, although Iraq needs international expertise to run these fields.

Exxon's exit from the southern West Quran 1 field may be similar to Shell's 2018 divestment of its stake in Majnoon, where operations are now managed by state-owned Basrah Oil Co., the minister said May 3.

In February, Oslo-based DNO bought Exxon's 32% stake in the Baeshiqa license in Iraq's Kurdistan region, part of a plan by the Norwegian company to boost spending in the semi-autonomous area and speed up production from existing wells in 2021.

As some Western oil majors exit Iraq, others have made headway. Iraq signed $8 billion worth of deals with five US energy sector companies last August during Kadhimi's first state visit to the US. The deals included an upstream pact with Chevron and power agreements with GE. Other companies involved were Baker Hughes, Honeywell and Stellar Energy.

Meanwhile BP operates the giant Rumaila field, which can produce around 1.5 million b/d out of Iraq's estimated 5 million b/d capacity. Italy's Eni runs the Zubair field, while Russia's Lukoil operates West Qurna 2.

Exxon unveiled plans in February to sell most of its UK North Sea operations as part of a roadmap to divest $15 billion in assets by 2021 and $25 billion by 2025.

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Iraq to conduct study on oil, gas exploration and transport contracts with foreign companies - S&P Global