Archive for the ‘Iraq’ Category

Iraq’s Economic Update – April 2019

Iraqs economy is gradually picking up following the deep economic strains of the last four years. Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.6 percent in 2018, thanks to a notable improvement in security conditions and higher oil prices, reversing the contraction of 1.7 percent seen in 2017. The non-oil economy picked up speed and grew at 4 percent, while oil production was slightly less than 2017 in line with the OPEC+ agreement. Recently, the Iraqi economy has received a boost of confidence with the signing of several trade agreements with its neighbors. Reconstruction efforts have been proceeding at a moderate pace. Inflation remained low at 0.4 percent in 2018, but slightly up from 2017, due to higher domestic demand in addition to rising food and transportation costs.

The economic outlook has improved due to higher oil prices and improving security situation, but constraints on capital spending will impede a recovery-driven growth acceleration. Growth is expected to spike to 8.1 percent in 2020 due mainly to higher oil output, with OPEC+ agreement coming to an end in mid- 2019.

Non-oil growth is expected to remain positive on the back of higher investment needed to rebuild the country's damaged infrastructure network, private consumption and investment. However, the recently approved 2019 budget presents a sizable increase in recurrent spending, and unless there is a significant reorientation in fiscal policy to a comprehensive recovery approach, there will be limited fiscal space to sustain post-war recovery and longer-term development.

Higher spending together with easing oil prices will result in a high fiscal deficit projected at 5.4 percent of GDP in 2019 before narrowing down to about 3 percent throughout 2020-2021.

Lower oil prices and increased imports will cause the current account balance to turn into deficit, financed partially by international reserves decumulation.

Iraq's Economic Update - April 2019

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Iraq's Economic Update - April 2019

Iraq’s Economic Outlook – April 2018

Iraqs growth outlook is expected to improve thanks to a more favorable security environment and the gradual pickup of investment for reconstruction. Overall GDP growth is projected to return to a positive 2.5% in 2018 despite the extension of the OPEC+ agreement till end-2018, and it will further increase in 2019 as the agreement expires. From 2020, oil production is expected to increase only marginally, reducing overall economic growth, as the Government of Iraq (GoI) cannot afford to significantly increase investments in the oil sector.

The poverty rate increased from 18.9% in 2012 to an estimated 22.5% in 2014. Recent labor market statistics suggest further deterioration of the poverty situation. Labor force participation rate of youth (ages 15-24) has dropped markedly since the onset of the crisis in 2014, from 32.5 % to 27.4%.

Unemployment increased particularly for individuals from the poorest households, youth, and those in the prime working age (ages 25-49). The unemployment rate is about twice as high in the governorates most affected by ISIS-related violence and displacement compared to the rest of the country (21.1% versus 11.2%), especially among the young and the uneducated.

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Iraq's Economic Outlook - April 2018

Stigma Hampers Iraqi Efforts to Fight the Coronavirus – The New York Times

NAJAF, Iraq The doctor paused before banging on the front gate, gesturing to companions who were wearing full hazmat suits, masks, goggles and gloves to stand back so they would not be the first thing the homes occupants saw.

This is very sensitive, very difficult for our society, said Dr. Wissam Cona, who works with the provincial Health Department in the city of Najaf in southern Iraq. He now spends his days checking on families recently returned from Iran, which has suffered one of the worlds most severe outbreaks of the coronavirus.

He said that the father of the family at this home had begged him not to come with a retinue of health workers, saying, Please dont park in front of our house. I feel ashamed in front of the neighbors. This is so difficult for my reputation.

For Iraq, one of the biggest obstacles for public health officials fighting the coronavirus is the stigma associated with illness and quarantine. It runs so deep that people avoid being tested, prevent family members who want tests from having them and delay seeking medical help until they are catastrophically ill.

The aversion to quarantine and the reluctance to admit illness may help explain why the number of confirmed cases in Iraq is relatively low, several Iraqi doctors said. A country of more than 38 million people, Iraq had recorded only 1,352 confirmed Covid-19 cases as of Monday.

By contrast, in neighboring Iran, with roughly twice Iraqs population, the official count exceeds 71,000. Neighboring Saudi Arabia, which has a smaller population than Iraqs, has more than three times as many confirmed cases.

It is true we have cases that are hidden, and that is because people dont want to come forward and they are afraid of the quarantine and isolation, said Dr. Hazim al-Jumaili, a deputy health minister who is guiding the countrys response to the coronavirus.

The stigma attached to illness and quarantine in Iraq and some other Middle Eastern countries largely reflects cultural and religious beliefs. But it also involves an ingrained distrust of the government, historical experience and the fear that given the ragged state of Iraqs health care system, going to the hospital could be fatal.

A recent video that was widely shared showed female patients in quarantine in a Basra hospital lying near one another without masks, coughing and calling for help as one of them died.

Some believe the virus means that God is displeased with them, or maybe it is a punishment for a sin, so they dont want others to see that they are sick, said Dr. Emad Abdul Razzak, a consultant psychiatrist at Iraqs Health Ministry.

For many people it is a shame for a female to say she has this illness or any illness, even cancer or mental illness, and many people have no trust in the health system, he said.

So strong are the stigma and the aura of sinfulness surrounding the virus that families of those who have died of other causes oppose their loved ones bodies being in the same morgue or even graveyard as those who have died of the virus.

In contrast to many Western countries, where celebrities have acknowledged having the disease, and even neighboring Iran, where senior political figures announced they were ill with the virus, there is only one instance in Iraq of a politician or prominent figure admitting to being infected.

Some of the fear surrounding the disease stems from the Muslim rituals surrounding death, said Sherine Hamdy, a professor of medical anthropology at the University of California at Irvine who has worked extensively in Middle Eastern communities.

You dont want to be forced into quarantine, you dont want to be forced into the hospital because those social, family bonds are very strong, she said. You want to die within the family.

The worst thing in the world isnt to die, but its to die away from your family and your community and to have no control over what happens to your body.

The Islamic tradition requires swift burial, preferably within 24 hours of death. The longer the delay, the more people fear for the soul of the deceased.

Adding to the problems is the tradition of washing the bodies of people who have just died, which the authorities fear could spread the virus.

The coronavirus and pandemics overall cause disruptions of social and religious practices, and its not easy to tell people that the coronavirus is stronger than God, said Omar Dewachi, a professor of medical anthropology at Rutgers University, who was born and brought up in Iraq.

Quarantining those who are infected imposes a double humiliation in many Iraqi communities. First, it assures that everyone in the neighborhood will learn about the illness. Second, if the victim is a man, it signifies that he is no longer able to protect his wife, his children or in the case of an elder brother, his younger siblings, and so has fallen short of fulfilling his role in the family.

More traditional families sometimes deny their female relatives a coronavirus test for fear that if she tests positive she will be removed from the fortress of her family and possibly be sexually compromised.

In this society, it is not OK for a female to be apart from the family, said Dr. Mona al-Khafaji, a radiologist in private practice in Baghdad.

She mentioned the case of a 32-year-old female patient with fibrosis, which heightens her vulnerability to the coronavirus, who was having trouble breathing. Dr. al-Khafaji recommended the woman go for a Covid-19 test, but her father and brothers said no, and refused to budge even when her condition worsened.

Iraq is not the only Middle Eastern country struggling with the stigma surrounding the virus.

Egyptians aversion to quarantines dates to at least the early 20th century, when cholera and tuberculosis took turns ravaging the country. Some who were quarantined did not survive.

Similar fears have emerged in Afghanistan, where people have attacked health workers and crawled out of hospital windows to escape quarantines. One day last month, nearly 40 patients attacked health care workers at a hospital in Herat Province and escaped quarantine there.

Lately, in an effort to overcome the stigma and put together an accurate picture of the scope of the epidemic, the Iraqi Health Ministry has resorted to random testing. But this program has brought a new set of troubles.

For one thing, some healthy people could be falsely stigmatized. And to display its resolve, the government has assigned armed national security personnel to accompany health workers. Given Iraqs violent past, the presence of security forces is so unnerving it makes some people hide in their homes.

It is so difficult in this culture because everything we do is a problem, said Dr. Mohammed Waheeb, a senior pulmonologist at Baghdad Medical City. If we send an ambulance to pick up the patient, then people are upset because the neighbors will see it.

The same happens or worse if we send the national security, he added. Then people feel it is like under Saddam, he said, referring to Iraqs former strongman president, Saddam Hussein.

The Health Ministry says the use of security personnel is the only way to surmount the difficulties of persuading people to submit to quarantine. Doctors, however, say the security details are needlessly off-putting, at least when health teams are merely out collecting samples.

The second day of random testing in Sadr City, a sprawling, impoverished neighborhood in eastern Baghdad, illustrated the recurring problems. In this part of the capital, houses are patched heaps of corrugated metal and brick, with garbage strewn on streets that are often unpaved.

An old woman, wearing a long black abaya, opened her corrugated metal gate a crack and squinted into the brilliant noonday sun to see who had knocked. Looking down the street she saw more than 40 people in surgical gowns and masks or full hazmat suits, accompanied by two or three television cameras, community police officers, young militia members from the organization of the nationalist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and a few local sheikhs.

She slammed the gate closed.

People in Sadr City are skeptical of the Health Ministry, said Dr. Bassim Aboud, who oversees the area for the ministry, as he knocked futilely at the womans gate.

If people think I am with the government, they will shut the door, he said. But if they see me as a doctor, they come to me for help.

Mujib Mashal contributed reporting from Kabul, Afghanistan, and Falih Hassan from Baghdad.

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Stigma Hampers Iraqi Efforts to Fight the Coronavirus - The New York Times

Iraq suspends Reuters licence over report disputing coronavirus figures – The Guardian

Iraq has suspended the licence of the Reuters news agency after it published a story saying the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the country was higher than officially reported.

Iraqs media regulator said it was revoking Reuters licence for three months and fining it 25m dinars ($21,000) for what it said was the agencys violation of the rules of media broadcasting.

In a letter to Reuters, the Communications and Media Commission (CMC) said it had taken the action because this matter is taking place during current circumstances which have serious repercussions on societal health and safety.

Reuters said it regretted the Iraqi authorities decision and that it stood by the story, which it said was based on multiple, well-placed medical and political sources, and fully represented the position of the Iraqi health ministry.

We are seeking to resolve the matter and are working to ensure we continue to deliver trusted news about Iraq, the news agency said in a statement.

Asked about the Reuters suspension in an interview with Christiane Amanpour on CNN, Iraqi president Barham Salih said it was a regrettable decision taken by a commission that is independent of the government.

From my vantage point you would not get me in a situation where I would defend that. Im working with our legal team in order to revoke that and manage the situation, Salih said.

He said the Reuters story had caused distress because it implied a deliberate falsification of records by the government, which he said had not been the case.

The Reuters report, published on 2 April, cited three doctors involved in the testing process, a health ministry official and a senior political official as saying Iraq had thousands of confirmed Covid-19 cases, many times more than the 772 it had publicly reported at that time.

The report was updated on 2 April to include a denial from a health ministry spokesman, sent by text message, who dismissed the sources assertions about the spread of the disease, describing them as incorrect information.

In addition to the three-month suspension, Reuters was ordered to issue a formal apology.

As of 13 April, Iraq had recorded 1,378 cases of Covid-19, including 78 deaths, according to the health ministry.

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Iraq suspends Reuters licence over report disputing coronavirus figures - The Guardian

Bridging US and Iranian interests in Iraq | Ibrahim Zobeidi – The Arab Weekly

The suggestion to hold early elections in Iraq was initially meant by the ruling clique as nothing more than a ploy to assuage the anger of demonstrators. But it seems that early elections ended up becoming a crucial and fateful necessity for both US and Iranian camps in Iraq. Both sides have found themselves forced to coexist in the country. Now everybody is just waiting to see what the post-pandemic winds are going to bring.

Iran is waiting for the fall of US President Donald Trump and the coming of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden to help it rise from its depression, while America is waiting for the Iranian regime to fall in due time because of the sanctions, the coronavirus pandemic and the prospect of a new Iranian Revolution. Just place your faith in God to do his deeds.

As for us simple Iraqis who are despised by both camps we too have been waiting, since October of last year, for the revolution of our brave and honourable young patriots to turn the tables on the two camps and return the country to its rightful owners, free of the weapons of the armed gangs, corrupt proxies and despicable traitors.

Unfortunately, despite the sacrifices by a large number of our brave and young martyrs at the hands of treacherous proxy agents, the likelihood of totally uprooting the fraudulent political process in Iraq is highly implausible, at least in the foreseeable future. We will have to wait for the coronavirus pandemic to pass, for oil prices to rise and for the fate of Trump in America and the fate of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Iran to be decided on. Only then can a new youth revolution that is more powerful, bolder, wiser and experienced be born.

It seems that the brilliant idea to hold early elections has ceded its place to the saga of choosing a new prime minister who is supposed to provide some form of bridge between America and Iran, and a trustworthy soul for both of them.

The rare gem should be able to assuage the angry, sullen, disgruntled and repressed Iraqi masses by putting on a show in which he appears to remove some of the militia weapons that Iran does not want anyway and liberate some areas of the homeland that America doesnt need.

The chosen hero of this comedy will also be making some made-for -TV gestures and be taking some reform-like measures that would ease the minds of most of the protesters.

Neither Mohammed Allawi nor Adnan al-Zurfi proved to be the rare gem who could establish a safe bridge between the two camps. Then suddenly, all heads turned to Mustafa Kadhimi, the head of the Iraqi intelligence services, who is known for his dual American-Iranian loyalties and temperament the perfect candidate, temporarily at least, for the task at hand.

Choosing Kadhimi was perhaps the lesser of all evils, as hes the best of a bad lot, the least hypocritical among the hypocrites and the least corrupt among the corrupt.

Perhaps the person most happy with this great find is President Barham Salih, whose rhetorical talents unfolded and flowed during Kadhimi's appointment ceremony, a surreal event the likes of which have not been witnessed in a long time. Salih breathed a sigh of relief. He is comforted by his not appearing to favour the Americans, the Iranians, or the protesters. In the end, there were no winners or losers, and thats the best scenario for all.

So you see, he who expects the upcoming Iraqi elections to be fair, or even half fair, must be both delusional and naive, or at least willingly duped. We simply have to wait, hear and see, keeping in mind that the weapons that will guard the ballot boxes are going to be for the most part Iranian, while the expected bags packed with dollars, dinars, riyals and dirhams are going to flow from America, the UK, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The whole show is going to take place in plain daylight, without fear or shame.

It is interesting to say the least that in this new democratic Iraq, anyone who professes to be a spy for a foreign power or even a double agent is no longer rejected, despised or condemned for high treason. He can eventually become prime minister.

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Bridging US and Iranian interests in Iraq | Ibrahim Zobeidi - The Arab Weekly