Archive for the ‘Iraq’ Category

Reporter’s Notebook: Evacuating Iraq in the Time of Coronavirus – The Media Line

My last day in Kurdistan for a long time. I will miss it dearly

The driver picked me up late at night on April 2 to take me to Erbil International Airport. I hired him because he worked for one of the major NGOs in the city, meaning he had the proper permissions to drive around. Iraq and the autonomous Kurdistan Region have been under lockdown for weeks due to COVID-19, aka the coronavirus. People can only walk to nearby supermarkets and pharmacies.

We were stopped numerous times during the roughly four-mile drive to the airport. At one point, I had to show a letter from the US Consulate saying I was traveling abroad.

The anti-virus measures in Iraq include a flight ban. On March 17, the Iraqi government closed its airports to passenger flights. It only gave 24 hours notice, and flights were already limited before that. Turkish, Emirati and Jordanian airlines had already stopped services to and from Iraq.

I didnt make it out. I was stuck in Iraq.

I spent about two weeks in an apartment, continuing to file stories as I called and messaged sources via WhatsApp throughout Iraq and Syria. Then an email from the consulate in Erbil came just before 5:30 pm on April 1.

Action: Flights available for U.S. citizens to depart Iraq, read the subject line.

Days after the ban began, the consulate started emailing American citizens about possible Qatar Airways flights that might reach the US for a short period. They sent the same email reading flights may be available this week several days in a row. Some of us were skeptical. Other Western embassies informed their citizens of these exempted flights as well.

The consulate told us that destinations would be limited and that this arrangement would likely not happen again. Being the snobby New Yorker I am, I assumed JFK would be one of the destinations. However, the email said only Miami and Montreal were available from Erbil, via Doha. So I bought the Miami ticket for more than $3,000. I then bought a separate ticket from Miami to LaGuardia in New York City for a slightly cheaper $28.

I saw many people I know when I got to the airport. I quickly met another American journalist and teammates from the Kurdistan Rugby team. The expatriate community in Erbil very much resembles a small town, where everyone knows and works with each other.

The atmosphere was joyous. The last few weeks were stressful. We werent able to move around and didnt know when we would be able to go home. We eagerly started to line up at the check-in counter three hours before the scheduled flight time. We wanted to get home.

The line wasnt moving, though. We realized nobody had been checked in. Worry started to set in. I checked Twitter. A source had tweeted an article saying the Transportation Ministry had canceled all the previously exempted flights. I didnt believe it. Numerous consulates fought for this flight. Qatar Airways sent a plane and charged us each thousands.

Then the men in maroon jackets the Qatar Airways representatives starting making announcements in Kurdish, Arabic and English. People started to gasp. An employee told us that the flight was canceled and would leave the exact same time tomorrow.

The frustration of people was clear, perhaps especially for locals. Crises are not new in Iraq. I recall a conversation with a Kurdish friend shortly before the lockdown. I asked if he was worried about the virus, to which he replied no.

In my life, weve had the Iran-Iraq War [1980-1988], the Gulf War [1990-1991], the Kurdish civil war [1994-1997], the Iraq War [2003-2011], ISIS, the Battle of Kirkuk [2017], and now this, he said. Its just one more thing. All we know is war in Iraq.

I saw a local traveler speaking to an airline employee in Kurdish. After receiving the news, he switched to English, loudly cursing Iraq and this country as he threw his bag to the ground. It was telling of the frustration people have felt for years.

We headed for the door, but airport security would not let us leave. They wouldnt tell us why. Much to our dismay, they continued letting would-be travelers in.

A friend of mine pleaded with a guard to let her out with her cat. She said it could not stay in the airport for 24 hours. I did not know how to explain this in Kurdish, so I tried Arabic.

No Arabic. Im Kurdish, said the guard.

Many Kurds dislike speaking Arabic, and Kurdish is the predominant language in Erbil.

Confusion quickly set in. Social distancing was impossible in the check-in area, which now had hundreds of us in it. An announcement over the loudspeakers told us to leave our would-be checked bags and take our personal luggage to the gate area. Most people refused this.

Instead, we lined up at the check-in counter and went to sleep. Airport staff handed out food: croissants, potato chips, soda and water.

We made friends. I met an American military veteran who was now working as a contractor.

I dont know how yall do it, he said to me. How you can come here, and not be military?

We discussed our drastically different experiences in the country. Ive experienced Baghdad nightlife, the Kurdish mountains, and Chaldean Catholic beer gardens. Ive reported from Kurdish military bases during war and violent protests in Baghdad. But for the most part, I felt safe during the year and a half I lived in the country.

I passed out sometime around 3 am on the cold, asylum white, airport floor. I woke up to the sound of people moving. I went over to a British contractor working at the airport, who told me they were working to receive permission from Iraqi authorities to take off.

An email from the consulate then came in.

It WILL depart, it read, referring to the flight.

And it did. Amid all the conflict between the US and Iran in Iraq, our government helped us get out.

The check-in went smoothly after that. I breezed through the remaining security checkpoints. Erbil International Airport is heavily guarded, and there are multiple screenings both inside and outside the airport.

At the last scanner, I saw the same guard whom I spoke to about the cat. He smiled and spoke to me in Kurdish.

How long have you been here? he asked.

About a year, I replied.

You are welcome in Kurdistan.

That will be my last day in Iraq, Kurdistan, Erbil for a long time. I will miss it dearly, and it was not how I wanted to say goodbye. But in a way, it was a fitting end. Locals fed me like they always did. Friends surrounded me. And I was safe.

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Reporter's Notebook: Evacuating Iraq in the Time of Coronavirus - The Media Line

Iraq slashing allocations to largest refinery as demand plummets – Iraq Oil Report

The move reflects domestic storage limitations and the global demand shock that led OPEC and other producers to drastically curtail output through the rest of the year.

A worker from Iraq's State Company for Oil Projects welds the pipeline connecting the Zubair-1 and Zubair-2 oil depots to the Fao depot, providing more flexibility for both exports and feeding the Shuaiba refinery. (Source: Basra Oil Company)

BASRA - The state owned Shuaiba oil refinery in Basra has shut in two-thirds of its 210,000 barrels per day (bpd) operating capacity, as a slowdown in global demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic has filled up storage and tanker ships are not loading fuel exports.

The refinery is Iraq's largest, following the destruction of much of the Baiji refinery in the aftermath of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) group's attack in Iraq in 2014. A long-delayed fourth refining unit is nearing completion.

All sources quoted or referenced spoke to Iraq Oil Report directly and exclusively, unless stated otherwise. Iraq Oil Report typically grants anonymity to sources that can't speak without risking their personal safety or job security. We only publish information from anonymous sources that we independently corroborate and are important to core elements of the story. We do not provide anonymity to sources whose purpose is to further personal or political agendas.

Iraq Oil Report strives to provide thoroughly vetted reporting and fair-minded analysis that enables readers to understand the dynamic events of Iraq. To meet this goal, we always seek to gather first-hand information on the ground, verify facts from multiple angles, and solicit input from every stakeholder involved in a given story.

We view our independence as an integral piece of our competitive advantage. Whereas many media entities in Iraq are owned or heavily influenced by political parties, Iraq Oil Report is wholly owned by several of its employees. In a landscape that is often polarized and politicized, we are able to gather and corroborate information from an unusually wide array of sources because we can speak with all of them in good faith.

To fund this enterprise, Iraq Oil Report depends on revenue from both advertising and subscriptions. Some of our advertisers and subscribers ‐ including companies, governments, and NGOs ‐ are also subjects of our reporting. Consistent with journalistic best practices, Iraq Oil Report maintains a strict firewall that removes business considerations from editorial decision-making. When we are choosing which stories to report and how to write them, our readers always come first.

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Iraq slashing allocations to largest refinery as demand plummets - Iraq Oil Report

Iraq’s Coronavirus Crisis Was Made Possible by Decades of War and Occupation – The Nation

Union leader Falah Alwan, president of the Federation of Workers Councils and Unions of Iraq, and leather goods factory workers argue with the plant manager about their union rights in 2003. (David Bacon)

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Many US union activists remember Falah Alwan. As the occupation of Iraq unfolded in the summer of 2005, he and several Iraqi union leaders traveled here to make clear the impact of sanctions and invasion on his countrys workers. From one union hall to another, on both coasts and through the Midwest, Alwan and his colleagues appealed for solidarity.Ad Policy

In the end, the wars damage went virtually unhealed, but the ties forged between workers and unions of the two countries have remained undiminished. Last week, as both face the coronavirus pandemic, Alwan wrote to the friends he made in those years. The news from New York is horrible, he commiserated. I believe the days to come will be much worse than they are now, not only in Iraq but for you also.

In 2005, the Iraqis effectively dramatized the human cost of US policy. Today, as both countries face the coronavirus, the devastating situation of Iraqs people calls for revisiting that question of responsibility.

On paper, the viruss toll in Iraq today stands at 1,031 officially confirmed cases, with 64 deaths. While these numbers are still much smaller than the United States, these cases dont tell the full story. In Iraq, very few people can access medical treatment, and the number of infections and deaths is almost certainly much higher than that given in official statements.Coronavirus

This past week, Reuters reported that confirmed cases numbered instead between 3,000 and 9,000, quoting doctors and a health officiala report that led the Iraqi government to fine the agency and revoke its reporting license for three months. The higher figure would give Iraq a per capita infection rate higher than that of South Korea, one of the viruss early epicenters.

Unions and civil society organizations must now try to make up for Iraqs political paralysis and the partial dysfunction of its government. Because of our ruined health care institutions, Alwan explains, the government hurried to impose a general curfew [a stay-at-home order] to stop the outbreak and a rapid collapse in the whole situation.

That had an enormous impact, especially on workers. Public employees encompass 40 percent of the workforce, and in theory should still be receiving salaries. But Hashmeya Alsaadawe, head of the countrys union for electricity workers and Iraqs highest-ranking woman union leader, points out that 80,000 of her members have already gone without wages for months because of the countrys economic crisis. Yet they are expected, and do, show up for work to provide essential services. In oil refineries and state-owned factories, its the same situationessential and unpaidone of the reasons for the huge demonstrations that have challenged the government since last October.

Hashmeya Alsaadawe, President of the Electricity and Energy Union in Basra and the Basra Federation of Trade Unions, in 2005. Alsaadawe was the first woman to be elected as a national trade union leader in Iraq's history. (David Bacon)

In the meantime, to stop people from moving within the country, the main roads were barricaded by concrete blocks, she says. While this is necessary, the government did not provide anything for those who earn their living on a daily basis. Shops and markets simply closed.

Theres not even a promise of pay for workers losing jobs in the private sector, Alwan adds. And more than 7 million Iraqis only have informal work. To survive, theyre obliged to violate the curfew, especially in the slums where 3 million live in Baghdad alone. Authorities have detained more than 7,000 people there, and fined more than 3,000 in Najaf. Iraqs population is about 40 million.

Economic desperation contributes to the impact of the virus in Iraq, but another factor makes it much more lethal. The spread of Covid-19 is taking place in a country with a devastated health care system. The United States owns a great part of the responsibility for this. Two invasions, a decade of sanctions, and the occupation largely caused the ruin of Iraqs medical and public health systems.

According to an analysis by the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center, Before the imposition of international sanctions in 1991, Baghdad operated some of the most professional and technologically advanced health care and public health institutions in the Arab world. The Ministry of Health operated 172 modern hospitals, 1,200 primary care centers and 850 community clinics, providing free health care with an annual budget of $450 million. While the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s produced enormous casualties, the infrastructure itself was not attacked.

Public health depends on well-functioning water and sanitation systems, which served 90 percent of the population in the 1970s. This infrastructure was largely destroyed by US bombing in the first Gulf War in 1991. The EPIC report noted, By March the Tigris River was running thickly and slowly with human waste, according to a Baghdad University law professor. An 87-member international monitoring committee reported that in Iraqs 30 largest cities, electricity, water, and sewage services were close to total collapse. Deliberate targeting of civil infrastructure by US air strikes, and enduring UN sanctionsdissolved the foundations on which Iraqs medical infrastructure was built. In the 2003 invasion, 7 percent of Iraqs remaining hospitals were destroyed and 12 percent looted in the subsequent chaos.

Over a third of the countrys 52,000 licensed physicians fled during the sanctions period of the 1990s. Then another 18,000, over half of those who had remained, left during the extreme violence that followed the US occupation. That violence especially affected health care workers. Omar Dewachi, a professor of medical anthropology at Rutgers University, says Baghdads hospitals were transformed into killing fields. By 2012, Iraq had a third of the doctors, per capita, of Jordan, Syria or even the Israeli-occupied territories.

Apartment buildings built by the government for working class residents of Basra. There is no room here for people with the virus to self-isolate. (David Bacon)

In the occupations first six years, the United States did budget $13.4 billion to rebuild the health care system, through the Iraq Relief and Recovery Fundbut the fund and US reconstruction projects were marred by fraud and theft, leading Senator Robert Byrd to charge in 2008 that tens of billions of taxpayer dollars are lost gone! Individuals think they can get away with bilkingtheyre not just milkingbilking the US and Iraqi governmentstaking bribes, substituting inferior workmanship, or plain, old-fashioned stealing! Stealing!

Instead of rebuilding the health care system and basic infrastructure, the occupation introduced private ownership. Now Iraq has a two-track system for health care in which basic services are provided by the Ministry of Health, although theyre no longer free. Sami Adnan, an activist in Workers Against Sectarianism, which helped organize the protests that began last October, charges, Today we have to pay for every single visit and often, in order to get treatment, we are obliged to give a bribe to the few remaining doctors in the country.

Iraqiswith moneycan buy treatment at the Andalus Hospital and Specialized Cancer Treatment Center, a 140,000 square-foot hospital on the eastern side of Baghdad. Owned by mogul Rafee al-Rawi, it boasts a mammography machine, PET and CT scanners, an MRI machine, and even an 8,300-ton cyclotron to manufacture a rare anti-cancer medicine. Or they can simply get treatment in another country with a better health care system. Both alternatives are subsidized by the government. Or they can pay for drugs smuggled into the country. Forty percent of the limited drugs available are brought in illegally, after merchants pay bribes of $30,000 per container.

Iraqs old State Company for Drugs Industries used to manufacture 300 drugs, and now makes only half that. We used to export to Eastern European and Arab states. Now look at us, says Mudhafar Abbas, a manager at the State Company for Marketing Drugs and Medical Appliances.

Driving the decline is a sharp cut in the money the Iraqi government budgets for health care, to just 2.5 percent of the governments overall $106.5 billion budget, a much lower rate than in the countries around it. The military, by contrast, gets 18 percent of expenditures, and the oil industry 13 percent. Even health cares small appropriation is now in danger. A catastrophic economic situation is sweeping the whole country, Alwan warns, because the budget was calculated when oils price per barrel was $56, and it is now $24 [recently rising to $34ed]. Oil revenue makes up 90 percent of the budget, so officials plan to cut salaries, and the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar to the dollar. Millions of workers, especially in the public sector, will pay for this.

The head of the Parliamentary Human Rights Committee, Deputy Arshad al-Salhi warned that even before the virus Iraqis were suffering from a lack of food and miserable wages. He urged the Ministry of Health to provide for families below the poverty line and the unemployed. This strategy must be worked out by the competent authorities immediately, otherwise we are going toward a famine, al-Salhi said.

Iraqs current prime minister designate, Adnan al-Zorfi, announced a program at the end of March to create a crisis committee, enact measures to detain the viruss spread, provide food to those who need it, and ask for international assistance. The government would provide an appropriate budget to provide for the requirements. Where the money would come from, no one knows. He then called on social groups outside the government to help provide aid.

In the aftermath of the 2003 invasion tank treads and turrets were piled in the middle of a residential neighborhood. The wreckage included depleted uranium ammunition, a big health hazard to residents, dissolved in a pond of toxic waste next to apartment buildings. (David Bacon)

The Iraqi administration has demanded that private corporations who operate oil concessions keep producing during the crisis. But now that it is selling pumping concessions to the worlds petroleum behemoths, rather than operating the oil fields on a nationalized basis as it did before the occupation, the government has only limited control. Some companies continue to keep the oil and dollars flowing, but at least one, the Malaysian giant Petronas, closed down its field and sent its workers home in fear of the pandemic.

The Oil Ministry could ramp up production in its state-operated fields, but must depend on the willingness of oil workers. Their union, the Iraqi Federation of Oil Workers, is the most powerful in the country. It, along with other unions, strongly backed the protests rocking Iraq since last fall. Those huge confrontations in the streets led to the resignation of al-Zorfis predecessor, Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi, and his predecessor, Adel Abdul Mahdi.

Beginning during the Arab Spring of 2009, waves of demonstrators have occupied Baghdads Tahrir Square, with smaller protests in Basra and other cities. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have risked confrontation with troops and armed militias to condemn the failure of the government to provide jobs, clean water, and health care. Infuriating especially are the electrical failures, providing no more than a few hours of power each day in the blistering summer.

In 2018 Iraqi Communists joined forces with cleric and militia leader Moqtada al-Sadr, hoping to harness the power of the protests in their Sairoon electoral coalition. They campaigned against corruption and the patronage system that divides government posts according to religion. While Iraqi unions dont have a formal endorsement process for candidates, Sairoon clearly had the support of many, if not most, union members. It won a plurality of votes in a multiparty system, but not enough seats in Parliament to form a government.

Last year, the demonstrations surged again. In September hundreds of doctors filled Baghdad streets, demanding bigger budgets for health care, and better pay and security for medical workers. In October thousands of young people came out in every major Iraqi city. And on October 29 the Iraqi military fired on them, killing hundreds in Baghdad, while paramilitaries murdered 18 in Karbala. In Tahrir Square young doctors tried to bandage wounds and provide emergency triage care.

The oil workers were deeply involved. We stand in solidarity with the demonstrations against corrupt rule in Iraq, their statement said. The Iraqi people of all classes stand together as one to demand their rights. These rights have been taken away by an unjust government that uses violence, including sniper fire, against defenseless people who have nothing but their faith in God and in the justice of their cause. In southern Iraq, where the oil and container terminals are located, union members shut down the ports.

In a prescient criticism, unions condemned the Iraqi government for growing completely dependent on oil income, making the country vulnerable to price shifts, while neglecting agriculture and manufacturing, important parts of earlier economic development. From October to March the demonstrations continued. By then, according to the Independent High Commission for Human Rights, the death toll had reached 566, 10 times the virus deaths so far, while the number of injured topped 17,000.

In Baghdad people depend for transportation on a network of crowded vans, which make it difficult to maintain social distancing. The curfew now makes travel like this virtually impossible. (David Bacon)

Then Covid-19 hit. And while many of those camped out in Tahrir Square left, not all did. Some remained, and began forming teams to go into neighborhoods and talk about the health crisis. The Iraqi Students Union set up a special medical unit to give basic examinations. For these activists, demonstrating against the government and working to overcome the virus are connected.

Sami Adnan says, The reasons why we took to the streets in recent months were precisely these: the social and health system is totally insufficient to meet peoples needs. Inside our tent village in Tahrir Square, we are disinfecting everything: clothes, tents, mattresses, blankets, tools and utensils. We are distributing personal protective equipment such as masks and gloves.

Iraqi journalist LuJain Elbaldawi agrees: The situation in Iraq is heading toward a comprehensive health crisis that the government is unable to cope with; thus, has resorted to drawing from civil society institutions, religious organizations, and charities.

At first many clerics, including Moqtada al-Sadr, urged people to continue to come to the mosque and attend religious events. Planes continued to arrive with pilgrims from Iran, where the virus is raging. After pleas from health authorities, however, the imams reversed their earlier edicts. Some went further. In Karbala the al-Abbas shrine built a hall with 52 rooms for infected people. Mullah Hussein al-Awsi in Baghdad told the news website Al-Monitor, We have formed teams of commission members to disinfect public spaces such as shops, public markets, sports arenas and some of the residential neighborhoods that are difficult for the government to reach.

Grassroots groups and individuals responded as well. In Baghdad, mobile bakeries travel through neighborhoods, distributing bread so that residents dont have to leave home. As people are doing all over the world, activist Nadia Mohammed in Kirkuk began making and handing out face masks to those with no money to buy them.

Hashmeya Alsaadawe, who is also president of the Basra Trade Union Federation, says the ability of her union to provide aid is limited by the fact that the government does not recognize our legitimacy nor the legitimacy of other unions. This denial dates back to the Saddam Hussein dictatorship, when the government prohibited unions in the public sector, including oil, electricity, and the state enterprises that still dominate the economy.

Workers on an oil drilling rig in the South Rumaila oil field outside of Basra, in southern Iraq in 2005. Workers are still going to work to produce the oil since the economy would stop immediately if they didnt. (David Bacon)

While that outright prohibition was ended in a 2016 reform, withholding recognition keeps unions from collecting dues and functioning normally. Our financial capabilities, therefore, are almost zero, she says, so were able to provide needed support only to poor workers. We distribute donations and food baskets where we can, and in addition we educate all workers through social media about the dangers of this virus and how to prevent it.

Under union pressure, the government has made changes in some workplaces, by having only half of the workforce on the job at one time. In others, the shifts have been lengthened in order to increase the number of days off. But Alsaadawe says the rules can change in each department and enterprise. Changes were also too slow, and didnt take into account the seriousness of this virus. Some workplaces only distributed sanitizers in a few departments. Workers who labor crowded together were not released, nor were masks and gloves distributed to them. Individuals had to get them for themselves.

Many unions have gone beyond trying to protect their own members, and call for holding the government responsible for its failures. A National Program of Action to Combat the Coronavirus begins by declaring, The authorities underestimated the experience of the countries of the world, and did not lift a finger to respond to the crisis until the middle of March.

The declaration, circulated by Hassan Jumaa Awad, president of the Iraqi Federation of Oil Workers, does not stop there. The cause of the spread of this virus is the capitalist system in the first place, it charges, and its continuous quest to accumulate capital and profits at the expense of the health and life of people.

Hassan Juma'a Awad, President of the Iraqi Federation of Oil Workers, in 2005. (David Bacon)

The IFOW then lists an extensive set of demands, many echoing those put forward by unions and progressive organizations in the United States. The government must provide drugs and supplies to those who need them, it begins, with immediate testing, starting with health workers on the front lines, as well as prioritizing people with chronic health problems. Medicine and food should be rationed and their prices controlled, with meals provided at schools. The government must pay the wages of all workers, public and private for four months and throughout the quarantine period, including payments for those disabled and unemployed and the old and retired. Meanwhile, there should be a moratorium on payment of rents, loans, water and electricity bills, and taxes.

To prevent the virus from spreading, people in prisons and detention centers should be released so that prisons dont turn into epidemics. Public events must be halted, including religious ones, and the border closed to pilgrims from Iran and other pandemic-stricken countries.

Given Iraqs huge protests and wrenching political changes over the last year, unions clearly see that the important long-term response is political. By formulating demands for the whole population, not just for workers and union members, the call reaches out beyond labor to all socialist and human-friendly forces, parties, organizations, labor and womens and professional associations and movements calling for equality. Ultimately, it holds Iraqs economic system responsible for the crisis, and demands basic political change to deal with it. Whether Iraqs political system will allow such changes will be the challenge facing Iraqs workers moving forward.

Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly identified Omar Dewachi as a professor at Brown University. He is in fact a professor of medical anthropology at Rutgers University.

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Iraq's Coronavirus Crisis Was Made Possible by Decades of War and Occupation - The Nation

After Suleimani, the PMU Is Getting More Aggressive in Iraq – Foreign Policy

In January, Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of Iraqs largest political party, traveled to Irans holy city of Qom to meetwith representativesof several Iraq-based paramilitaries from the hugely influential Popular Mobilization Units (PMU). That visit was part of an attempt by Sadr to position himself as the face of public anger directed against the United States over the assassination of Iranian military commander Qassem Suleimani.

Sadr is an important figure in Iraq not only because of his ties to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei but also because members of his Saraya al-Salam militia turned outin significant numbers to protect anti-government protesters against Iraqi security forces, including the PMU, last year. The death of Suleimani caused pro-Iranian paramilitaries to flex their muscles by clashing more openly with U.S. troops, which could be a sign that the PMU is reimagining its future role in Iraq. Sadrs intervention now makes the PMUs ascendance undeniable. While he tried to navigate the wave of popular protest last year, he has hedged his influence with the PMU this year, illustrating that the organization cannot be sidelined.

The PMUs engorged status is rooted in the war against the Islamic State. At the outset of the conflict, the powerful Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ali Sistani issued a fatwa that rallied more than 100,000 young men to join the organization. Most of the volunteers were Shiites, but groups of Sunnis, Christians, and Yazidis also formed their own units under the PMU umbrella. At its core, the PMU is a sectarian organization whose leaders see themselves as allies in Irans broader geopolitical ambitions.

Many of the PMU militias have roots in older organizations, such as the Badr Organization, led by Hadi al-Amiri. Amiri had served alongside Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the 1980s fighting Saddam Husseins regime. Like Sadr, Amiri and his organization were seen as more moderate than other Shiite militias. For instance, the more radical Asaib Ahl al-Haqsplitfrom Sadrs movement and targeted U.S. forces after 2006.

The PMUs presence in Iraq ballooned during the war against the Islamic State, giving it large numbers ofarmed men and some 50brigades that wanted to play a major role in the social, military, and economic life of the country. I saw this on the roads around Mosul in 2017. As the citys environs were liberated from the Islamic State, the flags of various Shiite militia groups went up at checkpoints outside the city, a typical sight across Iraq. The groups had their own munitions warehouses as well and allegedly had their own prisons.

The PMU reached a turning point in 2017 and 2018, when it was integrated into the Iraqi security forces as an official paramilitary force. That could have meant standardizing its units and blurring the line between the various militias and the regular armed units, but instead the PMU solidified its status as a distinct organization within the country. The brigades preserved their sectarian and political links to various former militias. Then-Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi defended the role of the PMU in 2017 when U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson urged the militias to return home. He said they would become thehope for the future ofIraq.

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As tensions between Iran and the United States escalated beginning in May 2019, so too did those between U.S. troops in Iraq and the PMU. Both sides traded attacks, including more than a dozen PMU rocket attacks targeting important bases such as Camp Taji, Ayn al-Assad, Q-West, and K-1 near Kirkuk, where a U.S. contractor was killed. The latter action sparked a U.S. airstrike on five Kataib Hezbollah positions in Iraq and Syria and the strike that killed Suleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy chief of the PMU. Further rocket attacks eventually led to an attack on March 11 that killed three members of the U.S.-led coalition and led directly to a U.S. retaliatory strike on a series of PMU-controlled warehouses on March 13. In late March, the United States withdrew from many of the bases targeted by rocket attacks, including Q-West and K-1, as various PMU group continued to make threats to remove the U.S. troop presence.

Coinciding with these events has been an outburst of tension between protesters and the Iraqi government. In late November, after numerous protesters were killed in clashes with local authorities, Sadr called for the next prime minister to be chosen by popular referendum. He issued several further statements in support of the protesters, all of which helped lead to the ouster of Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi in November. Sadr has since rescinded his support for the protesters, but his influence during that critical moment is still felt.

The anti-government protests also opened an opportunity for the PMU to test its own clout in the country, and itwasopenly implicated in suppressing the protests. Its opposition to the protests likely stemmed from its belief that they represented a fundamental threat to its newfound power. The PMU was in the ascendant after the war against the Islamic State, and it hoped to entrench itself in Iraqi society thereafter, but the protests were broadly reflective of a younger generation that wanted sweeping change to a system that, by that time, served the PMUs interests. Protesters targeted PMU offices as well as some Iranian consulates and other symbols linked to the PMU.

The increasing role of Sadr and the PMU during the protests is a significant development in Iraqi politics because it signals a gradual shift in power away from the civil government and toward actors that are not only unaccountable to the public but also feel they owe more allegiance to Irans broader ambitions than to the Iraqi government, as is the case with many factions in the PMU.

In the aftermath of the Suleimani and Muhandis killings, the PMU chose to temporarily restrain its activities in the country, but Sadr continued to foment trouble by calling for large protests against U.S. troopsin Iraq.

Sadrs politicking is one of several challenges the PMU must reconcile with. Suleimanis death signaled the loss of a key ally in Iran that could jeopardize the organizations unity and relationship with Tehran. Further, Muhandiss death resulted in the loss of a significant degree of institutional and tactical knowledge that will be difficultif not impossibleto replace. With the specter of social and political unrest in Iraq growing and the PMUs future in the country in doubt, the organization has important decisions to make regarding its future.

The PMU could choose to continue to channel the groundswell of popular anger against the United States over its own role in Iraq. This might convince the Trump administration to pursue a political arrangement incorporating the varied interests in Iraq (which would include a troop withdrawal), similar to the deal it recently struck in Afghanistan. Alternatively, it could cause Washington to dig in as part of its efforts to counter Iran, which could serve as part of a broader effort by the PMU to take a greater stake in Iraqs political and military affairs.

Because the PMU is both part of the security forces and is linked to prominent religious and political leaders, it now plays a key role in many aspects of Iraqi civil society. The role that some factions of the PMU played in suppressing the protests, its attempt to force U.S. troops out of the country, and its attempt to influence the appointment of a new prime minister show that it has become a central force in Iraqs political and security fabric. As the PMU takes on a greater role in Iraqi society, it could eventually expand its influence to resemble that played by the IRGC in Iran. Its role already surpasses the one played by Hezbollah in Lebanon because it has been officially incorporated into the security forces.

As this happens, the PMU must also decide if it will take a more independent path or if it will continue to implement policies that serve Irans interests. This is a critical crossroads because if the PMU serves only Irans interests, it will rub up against large sections of the public and potentially come into conflict with either the United States or other groups in Iraq. As the country looks to an uncertain future, it is unlikely that the PMU will be content with settling into a role subservient to the security forces and disentangled from politics or, more importantly, from Iran.

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After Suleimani, the PMU Is Getting More Aggressive in Iraq - Foreign Policy

The risk that Iraq might fall apart – The Economist

Apr 11th 2020

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IN SADR CITY, the vast shantytown east of Baghdad, cars still pack the roads, pilgrims still pray at shrines and people still gather in shops. Many see covid-19 as either a Zionist hoax or a fast track to paradise, so they feel no obligation to comply with the governments order to stay inside. The government itself seems unprepared. Iraq claims to have just 1,122 cases of the virus, but it is accused of minimising the number. Its public hospitals are not equipped to handle a big outbreak.

If the virus were Iraqs only problem, that would be enough. Alas, the country is nearly bankruptthe result of a precipitous decline in the price of oil, which supplies more than 90% of government revenue. Its politics are also a mess, with parties unable to agree on a new prime minister. Iraqs militias are running amok, while the jihadists of Islamic State (IS) regroup. America and Iran, which helped Iraq muddle through past crises, are focused on fighting each other. Fears are growing that the state will collapse, says an Iraqi official.

Saudi Arabia and Russia are in talks over oil-production cuts, which would provide some relief to Iraq by raising prices. But even if the price of oil jumps by half, Iraq would still be looking at a sizeable budget deficit. As it is, the government cannot afford to pay salaries in the ever-expanding public sector (see chart). It has around $60bn in cash reserves, but that could run out by the end of the year, leaving it dependent on a loan from the IMF, which may not be forthcoming. The states 7m employees and pensioners are worried. Without salaries, thats the end of Iraq, says Mowaffak al-Rubaie, a former national-security chief.

That may sound alarmist, but Iraq does not have much of a private sector to fall back on. Many firms rely on government contracts. Much of the sector is informal. With a curfew in place, travel restricted and the borders closed, commerce has slowed considerably. Even before the virus, many Iraqis struggled to get by. Such hardship, along with blatant corruption, sparked big protests, beginning last year.

Those have largely subsided as people keep their distance from each other. But Iraqs politicians are not taking advantage of the calm. Since the prime minister, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, resigned in November, two men have been put forward to take his place. The first, Muhammad Allawi, failed to gain the backing of important Shia parties and their associated militias. The second, Adnan Zurfi, is trying to win over parliament, but he is opposed by Iran and is also unpopular with Shia politicians, who cannot agree on a successor. Many are happy to leave the pliable Mr Abdul-Mahdi in office as a caretaker.

Meanwhile, the militias that once fought against IS as part of the Hashd al-Shaabi, or popular mobilisation forces (PMF), are fragmenting. Two men who held them togetherAbu Mahdi al-Mohandis, the PMFs commander, and Qassem Suleimani, the head of Irans Quds Force, its foreign legionwere killed by America in January. Now some militias want to integrate with the army. More militant ones are going their own way. There are also signs of trouble within the militias, with splinter groups acting like criminal gangs.

Iran continues to use militias to wield influence in Iraq and try to push out America. A rocket attack by militia forces on March 11th killed two American soldiers and a British medic at an Iraqi military base. America responded with strikes on an Iranian-backed militia, Kataib Hizbullah. On March 16th militia forces attacked another Iraqi base used by American soldiers (causing no casualties). An unknown group called Usbat al-Thayireen claimed both attacks and issued threats against America, suggesting that the [Quds Force] had assembled its proxy militias into a new coalition, says the Soufan Centre, a New York-based research body.

President Donald Trump says Iran will pay a very heavy price if its proxies keep up their attacks. He has been consolidating Americas position in Iraq. Of the 5,200 American soldiers who were in the country at the start of the year, most have been gathered into a few large bases, mainly in Kurdish and Sunni areas. Some have been withdrawn. European and Canadian soldiers, part of the anti-IS coalition, have left, citing the outbreak of covid-19. IS, meanwhile, is active again. It has a bit of a free pass right now, says Michael Knights of the Washington Institute, a think-tank. Theyre better prepared for the virus than any fighting force. Theyre doomsday preppers.

With no leader and outside powers preoccupied with their own interests, it is not clear who will hold Iraq together. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraqs spiritual arbiter, has receded from politics. The Kurds, who have sought independence before, may do so again if the central government cannot produce the cash promised to their region. Sunni leaders are discussing carving out their own state, too. And the protests are likely to resume once the outbreak subsides. Politicians and analysts differ over how Iraq might collapse, but many think it is only a matter of time.

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This article appeared in the Middle East and Africa section of the print edition under the headline "Dark times ahead"

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The risk that Iraq might fall apart - The Economist