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Under its effective leader, firebrand ultra-nationalist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, Iraq is theoretically committed to not allowing itself to become overly dependent on any one country. That was the rallying call of al-Sadrs Sairoon (Marching Forward) power bloc during the last general election in Iraq in May 2018 that saw him and his grouping win the most seats of any party. For a while, this theory seemed to be in effect, with Iraq playing off Chinese and Russian interests against those of the U.S. All the time, though, in practice, Iran continued to dodge and weave around any and all sanctions aimed at preventing it from continuing to wield the deciding power in its neighbour through the leverage of its military, militias, and pro-Iran politicians in Baghdad. The surest sign yet that the U.S. has had enough of this situation came in the shape of the latest waiver granted just over a week ago by the U.S. to Iraq to continue to import Iranian electricity and natural gas just 30 days, its shortest waiver ever, by a long way.

At the same press conference that Morgan Ortagus, a U.S. State Department spokeswoman, announced the new short waiver, she also pointedly announced new sanctions against 20 Iran- and Iraq-based entities that were cited as funnelling money to Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) elite Quds Force. This Force functions in large part as Irans chief foreign intelligence operation, as well as its most zealous military unit more akin to Russias GRU than the U.K.s SIS having been built up and led by General Qassem Soleimani until his assassination by the U.S. on 3 January. According to Ortagus and absolutely correct - these 20 entities (there are more than that but this is a start) are exploiting Iraqs dependence on Iran as an electricity and gas source by smuggling Iranian petroleum through the Iraqi port of Umm Qasr (true, and other sites) and money laundering through Iraqi front companies (also true), among other sanctions-busting activities. Prior to this 30-day only waiver being granted, the U.S. had originally granted an initial 45-day waiver to Iraq after the U.S. re-imposed sanctions on Iranian energy exports in November 2018.

This was followed by another five waivers - two 90-day waivers in a row followed by two 120-day waivers in a row in June and October, and then a 45-day waiver in February before the U.S. specifically asked that Iraq show signs that it was reducing its imports of Iranian gas and power to meet its electricity demand. Clearly these were not forthcoming and, according to sources in Washington close to the Presidential Administration spoken to by OilPrice.com last week, unless Iraq does show the U.S. some compelling evidence to this effect, this will be the last waiver for Iraq to import Iranian energy. Weve been down this road before with Pakistan [with] the government pretending to help in our fight against AQ [Al-Qaeda] but at the same time the ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence] offering all the help it could to [Osama] bin Laden and were not playing that game again, the source underlined. Related: Saudi Arabia Sends Wave Of Supertankers To U.S. Ahead Of Oil Meeting

The parallels between Iraq and Pakistan from the U.S. perspective go beyond just money, as U.S. President Donald Trump made clear recently. At the beginning of January, after Iranian surface-to-surface missiles hit two Iraqi military bases housing U.S. troops, Trump said that he would impose sanctions directly on Iraq if the U.S. military was forced out of the country by further such incidents. Earlier last month, though, 30 107-mm Russian-made Katyusha rockets were fired at the U.S. allied Camp Taji military base north of Baghdad, killing three service members, two of them Americans and one British, according to U.S. and Iraq military officials. This attack was in the same style as the rocket attacks on 4 January on the U.S.s Balad Air Base near Baghdad and on the Green Zone, both reportedly Iran-sponsored retaliation for the Soleimani killing, and as the multiple rocket attack of 3 December 2019 on the U.S. Ayn al-Asad airbase in Iraq that was a key factor in the U.S. deciding to neutralise the al-Quds leader.

Although these have been the most high-profile attacks on U.S. assets in Iraq to date, and only the 4 January attack was cited as a direct act of retaliation for Soleimanis killing by Iran, there have in fact been at least 15 further attacks on U.S. military and neo-military personnel (and those of its allies) in Iraq by Iran proxies this year alone, according to U.S. military sources. Given the distaste of President Trump for becoming involved in endless wars in the Middle East, the U.S. response to this ongoing provocation from Iran via Iraq is almost certainly not going to be of the military variety in either in Iran or Iraq but rather of the financial type favoured by Trump, in the specific form of sanctions against Iraq.

The timing for these is currently ideal for two key reasons. First, it would mean more oil taken off the already high-supply, low-demand market, as Iraq would simply not be able to pay its developers. Second, it would come at a time when Iraqs finances are already ravaged not just by the ongoing oil price war but also by endemic corruption in its oil sector, as even its own ministers have admitted during rare occasions of candour. In the case of the former, only last week saw Iraqs economic parliamentary committee recommend that international oil companies (IOCs) operating in OPECs second-largest oil producer are paid with crude oil instead of cash and that they lower unnecessary costs due to the oil price crash. The committee also proposed delaying payments of foreign debt, including reparations to Kuwait, cutting the salaries of various public sector employees by 60 per cent, and lowering investment spending and non-essential current spending. In the northern semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan, matters are also not helped by the fact that around US$1 billion of its own cash from oil exports is stuck in the Lebanese bank, BankMed, because it is frozen whilst oil trading firm, IMMS, sues the regional government for the return of the sum.

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On the second issue, Iraqs current financial situation looks like it may well become as bad as the situation it faced just five years ago when the Baghdad government itself estimated that dues to the IOCs of US$18 billon would accrue over the course of the year, adding to the US$9 billion in outstanding arrears from 2014. Given that the average remuneration fee per barrel of non-heavy oil produced over an initial threshold level, as delineated in the Long-Term Service Contracts (LTSCs) awarded in the first and second rounds of bidding to international oil companies (IOCs), ranges between US$1.15 (Lukoil, West Qurna 2) and US$5.50 (GazpromNeft, Badra), the question that inexorably bubbles up was how the figure owed to the IOCs could be so high?

One of the reasons is that as the Iraqi government was in so much debt at the time the contracts were awarded in 2009 the IOCs in many cases were asked to make large upfront payments as part of their bid, which would be repaid at a later date. These were broadly understood by the IOCs to be once the initial production thresholds were reached but there were no regular payment schedules incorporated into many of these contracts by the Iraqi authorities. Instead, they were regarded as being repayable on an ad hoc basis, as and when it could afford to pay them. Also related to the contracts which are still in place for many of the fields offered in 2009 - was an infrastructure support payment on a per barrel basis of output. This vague category of payments related and still do not just to general field maintenance as it is generally understood in standard oil contracts but also to the development costs and security of the fields. All of these were billed separately from the remuneration per barrel fee, all were liable for payment by the Iraqi government, and all were highly opaque in their terms of reference. In practical terms, the scale of these payments was often at least as great as the headline per barrel remuneration fee itself and much of these payments went on administration of these elements connected to the fields. According to the Oil Minister at the time, Adil Abdul Mahdi, Iraq lost US$14,448,146,000 from the beginning of 2011 up to the end of 2014 as cash compensation payments relating to these fields development.

In this precise context, Iraq as a whole ranked 162 out of 180 countries in 2019 by the independent international non-governmental organisation, Transparency International (TI), in its Corruption Perceptions Index. TI describes Iraq as demonstrating: Massive embezzlement,procurement scams, money laundering, oil smugglingand widespread bureaucratic bribery that have led thecountry to the bottom of international corruptionrankings, fuelled political violence and hamperedeffective state building and service delivery. Although acknowledging that the countrys anti-corruption initiatives andframework have expanded since 2005, TI adds that they still fail toprovide a strong and comprehensive integrity system. Political interference in anti-corruption bodies andpoliticisation of corruption issues, weak civil society,insecurity, lack of resources and incomplete legalprovisions severely limit the governments capacity toefficiently curb soaring corruption, concludes the agency.

By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com

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Oil Smuggling And Politics Washington's Patience With Iraq Is Wearing Thin - OilPrice.com

On March 19, citing the virus, coalition and NATO training missions both suspended operations for two months. By March 29, Australia, Spain, France, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Portugal and the Netherlands had withdrawn almost all of their trainers.

In parallel, the U.S. withdrew from its frontline operating bases at Mosul, Al-Qaim, Qayyarah, Kirkuk and Taqaddum in the last week of March. Most U.S. forces were redistributed inside fewer, better-protected Iraqi bases such as Al-Asad and Erbil airport, both of which are now protected by newly installed U.S. missile defenses, to prevent a recurrence of the Jan. 8 Iranian missile attacks that left more than 100 U.S. troops with mild traumatic brain injuries.

The Iraqi military are meanwhile distracted by disaster relief, enforcing a nationwide curfew, and looking after their own health and that of their families. (Officially, the virus had sickened over 1,100 and killed 65 Iraqis as of Tuesday, but lack of testing means the real number is likely significantly higher.) Rural clearance operations have almost ceased and the pace of special forces raids has slackened, in part because of the severe disruption to intelligence, planning and air support provided by the U.S.-led coalition.

For the Islamic State, this is all a godsend. In its view, the pandemic is a literal act of divine intervention as it reached its lowest ebb. Terrorism expert Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi noted that IS newsletter, Al-Naba, called coronavirus Gods torment upon the Crusader nations, and urged fighters to take advantage of the distraction and disruption caused by the virus.

In many ways the Islamic State is quite well adapted for operations during a pandemic. Its cells are isolated, avoiding the risk of contamination by performing extreme social distancing long before the rest of us. Its leadership issued early instructions to its cadres to limit their exposure to the virusfrom the CDC-approved recommendations (washing hands and covering up coughs and sneezes) to Koranic verses involving lions and leprosy.

IS are somewhat self-contained, living in remote hideouts and underground shelters, drawing on independent food and water caches, and powering electronic devices with solar battery chargers. In every sense of the phrase, the thousands of members of this millenarian terrorist cult are the ultimate doomsday preppers.

On the ground, there have been small signs of Islamic State recovery at the tactical level, probably due to the cessation of counterinsurgency operations targeting them.

The four Iraqi military clearance operations undertaken in March were half as many as in April, and they lacked the coalition intelligence and air support that can focus such operations more effectively, instead falling into the less efficient category of unearthing arms caches but not catching enemy fighters.

Whereas U.S. and Iraqi special operations forces did a minisurge of joint raids in Februarydropping in by U.S. helicopters or tilt-rotor Osprey aircraft to raid caves and stop vehicles driven by IS membersthere were no such raids in March.

Left to operate without being pressured and chased from hideout to hideout, Islamic State has been getting more ambitious at local level. In Khanaqin District, close to the Iran-Iraq border, IS quadrupled its average number of mortar and rocket attacks in March and combined the bombardments with sustained machine-gun fire and ground assaults on security force outposts.

Over a five-day period beginning March 17, insurgents fired 15 mortar rounds into heavily populated neighborhoods of cities such as Tuz Khurmatu and Amerli, a type of attack that has not been seen for more than two years.

Islamic States next steps are easy to guess. It will increase rural assassination raids on local village leadersso-called mukhtarsand use intimidation to increase its ability to raise funds. Disruption to security force clearance operations will increase IS ability to make advanced roadside bombs in its hideouts and use these weapons, and other harassment tactics, to keep the security forces buttoned down in their bases.

If left unchecked, this kind of aggressive patrolling allows insurgents to gain psychological dominance over the local military garrisons and civilian populations. Before long, the insurgents will become the local power brokers, and it will no longer be possible to claim that IS days of territorial control are over. This is how the caliphate knits itself back together, one village at a time. This is exactly how it happened in 2012-14, after the previous U.S. withdrawal.

The only way to stop an IS resurgence, still in its infancy but now facing an improved outlook, is to reinvigorate an effective counterterrorism raiding campaign. This requires ongoing partnership between U.S. and Iraqi special forces, and between Iraqs commandos and the local Sunni populations in IS strongholds. Unlike 2011, the U.S. should not leave Iraq entirely, but should rather lower its visibility.

In all likelihood, non-U.S. military forces will never return to Iraq in the numbers that were recently withdrawn, with the virus providing a way to justify withdrawal even though Iraqi security forces are arguably not prepared to restrain an Islamic State resurgence. U.S. forces may also dwindle in terms of raw numbers in Iraq, where Iran-backed factions are promising long-term armed resistance to the open presence of U.S. advisers.

This does not have to be the end of an effective counterterrorism fight, however.

In places as diverse as Yemen, Somalia, Mali and Syria, the U.S. Special Operations Command has employed quiet partnerships with local special forces and paramilitary proxies to take on terrorist cells in a more targeted and effective manner than the large-scale train-and-equip program that appears to be eroding in Iraq. The coalition mission in Iraqdue to turn 6 years old in Septembermight expire, but the effort to prevent another IS comeback cannot afford to take a break, whether as a result of coronavirus, Iran-backed militias or a devilish combination of the two. The answer may be to take the war underground and back into the shadows.

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Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Governmentwill prosecute the organizers of a prohibitedfuneral service that infected dozens of people with the coronavirus in the Kurdish region of Iraq, officials told a local news organization.

Arrest warrants have been issued for five people who organized a mourning ceremony on March 21 which led to the infection" of a number ofpeople with COVID-19,a spokesperson for Erbil's crisis task forcetold Rudaw.

Some of those wanted for arrest are themselves hospitalized with the virus, the Erbil-based news outlet reported. Their arrests will be delayed until they have recovered.

Despite a ban on funerals and other large gatherings, mourners gathered last month in Erbil's Karezan neighborhood for two separate services that infected at least 72 people, Health Minister Saman Barzanji said. On Sunday, the ministry announced 18 new cases in Erbil, each of whom came in contact with an infected person during one of the funerals.

The infected mourners now make up 35%of all cases in Erbil, according to the citys health directorate, which announced plans to sue the two families who broke the rules by holding the funerals. Rudaw quoted Barzanji as sayingtoday that Karezan and 10 other neighborhoodshave been placed under quarantine.

The Kurdistan region is in grave danger and is facing a humanitarian catastrophe, Barzanji said earlier this week.

Iraq's Kurdistan region has reported a total number of 288 cases and three deaths. The central government in Iraq today announced 1,122 cases and a death toll of 65. Health care workers on the front lines have told Reuters the number of infected persons in Iraq is likely much higher than what has been publicly reported.

Also today, an Iraqi delegation arrived in China to bring back medical supplies and preventative equipment, the countrys air force said on Twitter. The pandemic, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, has killed more than 81,000 people worldwide.

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Iraq Iraq's Kurdish region issues arrest warrants over funeral linked to surge in COVID-19 cases - Al-Monitor

Baghdad, Iraq, 9 April 2020: The World Health Organization (WHO) commends the call by the religious Supreme Seminary in Iraq to postpone religious gatherings and its commitment to ensuring prevention measures recommended by WHO and local health authorities in Iraq.

The exponential spread of the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and the global rise in the number of infections and associated deaths necessitates limiting all social events and mass gatherings, including religious pilgrimages to holy sites. In this respect, WHO is disseminating clear recommendations to governments and the public to temporarily halt these activities in order to limit transmission of the disease.

The Seminaries, mainly in Najaf, Kerbala, and Kadimiya are in full support of WHO and MOH recommendations. We stress the importance of staying home, avoiding gatherings, and consider social distancing to avoid the unintentional harm caused by transmitting the disease, said Dr. Adham Ismail, WHO Representative in Iraq. WHO thanks the response of the esteemed Seminaries in Iraq and appreciate their support to health authorities efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Iraq, he added.

Iraq was expecting millions of pilgrims to head to the holy city of Kerbala on 8 April 2020 in one of the biggest religious ceremonies. Fearing this would widen the range of infection, WHO and Federal Ministry of Health in Baghdad made a series of visits to these areas and met with religious seminaries in Najaf, Kerbala, and Kadhimiya in Baghdad to mobilize support for postponing all religious gatherings and advising people to perform religious rituals from their homes until the COVID 19 outbreak in the country is stabilized.

The Supreme Seminary in Najaf, earlier called upon Iraqis to follow the Ministry of Health's directives and not to underestimate the repercussions of this virus and its dangers. It also obligated people to respect the lockdown and to support national health staff by staying home to limit the spread of infection, ease the burden on health facilities, and minimize morbidity and mortality.

For more information, pls contact:

Ajyal Sultany, WHO Communications Officer, sultanya@who.int, +964 7740 892 878Baraa Shaba, Communications Officer, shabab@who.int, +964 7800 010 244

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WHO commends efforts of Iraq Supreme Seminary and urges citizens to follow health measures to save lives [EN/AR] - Iraq - ReliefWeb

US troops reinforce bases in Iraq

The United States has allegedly deployed new military personnel to theAin al-Asad air base in Iraq, which was targeted by an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) missile attack in early January, Irans official news agency IRNAreported, quoting Iraqi sources.

IRNA quoted Qusay al-Anbari, a high-ranking member of the Iraqi Hashd al-Shaabi paramilitary group, as saying thatUS withdrawal from al-Qaim base was only a tactical move to increase the number of American forces in Ain al-Asad base.

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Anbari also claimed that the US had increased the number of its troops in Iraq after two rocket attacks on Camp Taji, north of Baghdad, killed two Americanand one British soldiers inearly March.

In another report, IRNA claimed that US forces were secretly preparing to build a new base in theUmm Samij area in Iraqs al-Anbar province.

Irans official news agency also quoted Karim Alawi, a member of the Iraqi parliaments security and defence committee, as saying that the US military has already started to deploy the Patriot missile defence system in Iraq.

Meanwhile, on WednesdayIRNAs Baghdad bureau reported that a number of US forces in Iraq were infected by the coronavirus. IRNA did not provide any further detail about the number of allegedly infected soldiers.

The report also claimed that the officially released numbers indicating that between 5,000 and 6,000 US troops are in Iraq were incorrect, and that there were about 20,000 US forces and military contractors in the country, who, it said, were perceived to be a possible threat to spread the coronavirus among Iraqis.

A new political standoff between Iranian hardliners and members of President Hassan Rouhanis government has ended with the rejection of an offer by health NGO Doctors Without Borders (MSF) to set up a 48-bed field hospital in Irans third-largest city,Isfahan.

On 22 March, the official Twitter account of the Iranian embassy in France announced that the MSF had transferred medication, masks, special gowns and facilities in a charter flight from the French city of Bordeaux for a field hospital in Iran to contain the fast-spreading coronavirus.

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Iran is the worst infected countryby the virus in the Middle East, recording 2,234 deaths and 29,406 infected COVID-19 cases as of Thursday.

The Iranian embassy, in appreciation of the MSFs move againstUS sanctions on Iran, wrote: In the worlds current situation, which is inflamed by the coronavirus, it is necessary to strengthen international unity.

However, hardliners in Iran immediately reacted to the news by bringing up the scandal of HIV-contaminated blood products imported from France to Iran in the early 1980s. The products had infected over 900 haemophilia patients in Iran and created the first wave of AIDS in the country.

It is important to remember that France sent contaminated bloodto Iran during the climax of the Iran-Iraq war, and in a time when they [France] provided the most modern weapons of mass destruction to Iraq, Hossein Shariatmadari, the managing editor of ultra-conservative Kayhan daily, toldFars news agency.

During the eight years of the Iran-Iraq war, the US and its Western allies provided military and intelligence assistance to the then-president of Iraq, Saddam Hussein.

In an interview with Fars, Iranian conservative legislator Abolfazl Aboutorabi voiced his doubts about the true reasons for the presence of an MSF team in Iran, while European countries adhere to US sanctions that have pushed Irans economy into a deadly spiral.

What good does it do to us, a 45-bed field hospital inside the compound of Amin Hospital [in Isfahan]? Aboutorabi toldFars news agency, referring to the MSF field hospital.

Iranian economists have estimated that the annual inflation rate for Irans current fiscal year (started on 20 March) could stand between 35 and 40 percent, as a result of new US sanctions and the economic impacts of the coronavirus outbreak.

The new assessments were released despite an earlier report from the governments Statistical Centre of Iran, which announced that the inflation rate for the first three months of the Iranian year (20 March to 30 June) would be below 30 percent.

Iranian economist Ali Dini Torkamani told Shargh daily that the Statistical Centres numbers were based on the studies which were carried out before the coronavirus outbreak in Iran.

When the coronavirus epidemic ends in the country, we will see the [real] impact of the virus outbreak and the US new sanctions on Irans petrochemical, gas and metals exports, Torkamani told the daily.

According to the economist, Iran will experience an inflation rate of 35 to 40 percent in the current Persian year and the countrys economic might shrink by 1 to 2 percent.

Fellow economist SiamakGhassemi has also predicted the same numbers for economic growth in Iran, and predicted that a new wave of unemployment would hit Iran in coming months.

A report by ILNA news agency has described the dire economic situation of residents of Irans most poorest province, Sistan and Baluchestan, which has been hit hard by the economic impact of the coronavirus.

The southeastern provinceis heavily dependent on domestic tourists visiting during the two-week Nowruz holiday. But this year, the coronavirus and measures to ban non-essential travelhave seriously damaged the tourism industry in the country.

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ILNA has reported that in provincialcapital Zahedan, unofficial petrol vendors have no customer, as well as shops selling second-hand Western clothing brands.

Unemployment is evident at every corner of the city, the news agency wrote. The citym which already had many poor and unemployed residents, is now drowning in unemployment.

According to the ILNA, Sistan and Baluchestan hadIran's highest unemployment rate in 2019 at 15.2 percent. Some 70 percent of its population lives under the poverty line.

While the coronavirus death toll in Sistan and Baluchistan has not been not as high as in other provinces in Iran, provincial officials are worried about the long-term economic impact of the pandemic on lives of the provinces residents.

As of Tuesday, Sistan and Baluchistan had registered 150 Covid-19 cases and nine deaths, according to the Fars news agency.

* Iranianpress review is a digest of reports that are not independently verified as accurate by Middle East Eye

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Iranian press review: US accused of reinforcing military presence in Iraq - Middle East Eye