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Iraq Says US Pledges to Speed Support in Fight Against Islamic State Wall Street Journal (subscription) WASHINGTONThe U.S. pledged Monday to speed up its support to Iraq in the fight against Islamic State, Iraq's prime minister said following a White House meeting with President Donald Trump. We have been given assurances that the support will not ...

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Iraq Says US Pledges to Speed Support in Fight Against Islamic State - Wall Street Journal (subscription)

Fire and heavy smoke coming from the town of Qayyarah, which is located in the Mosul district in northern Iraq, after the offensive retake of Mosul in 2016. Photo by: Mstyslav Chernov/ CC BY-SA

ERBIL, Iraq Even as Iraqi government officials denythat chemical weapons have been used in Northern Iraq, local health authorities and partners, including the World Health Organizationand the International Committee of the Red Cross, are working to improve preparation for any future incidents.

Their strategy aims to improve referral pathways in the short term, boost regional capacity to handle cases going forward, and build readiness into the long-term reconstruction of local health facilities, including in the city of Mosul, where the most recent probable chemical cases came from.

Last week, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said allegations of chemical weapons use in Mosul were mistaken. According to our information, [the Islamic State] doesnt have the ability to use [chemical weapons], and we understand [the incident reported was caused by] an explosion of smoke and gas, not chemical weapons, he told the audience at the American University of Iraq in Sulaymaniyah.

Devex previously spokewith the victims of one apparent chemical incident, as well as their doctors from the ICRC, who said they suspected mustard gas exposure. Lab tests are still in process to confirm the agent.

Mosul chemical attack exposes an ill-prepared health system

The first victims of an apparent chemical attack in the campaign to liberate Mosul from the Islamic State recount their story to Devex, revealing a public health system ill-prepared to receive and treat future cases. Government officials, NGOs and agencies are now urgently pivoting to reorganize protocol.

On the ground, however, organizations and local health authorities engaged in chemical weapons treatment and prevention are not waiting. They believe the symptomatic evidence from recent incidents, together with a regional history of chemical weapons use, is significant enough to warrant building improved capacity. These groups are working quickly throughout Iraq and particularly around Mosul, where a military campaign is ongoing to wrest Iraqs second-largest city from ISIS control.

WHO has a risk assessment and thats based on what we have seen in the region historically, more recently, and also on the basis of events that weve seen in the past 12 to 18 months, Catherine Smallwood, technical officer in the WHO Health Emergencies Program, told Devex from Erbil, where she is on mission. There has been authoritative confirmation of blister agent used in Northern Iraq by the [U.N.s Organization for the Prevention of the use of Chemical Weapons], so of course with that, events that have been reported, and the signs and symptoms that were seeing blister agents such as mustard gas are clearly one of the high-risk chemicals for us.

Immediately, that has meant re-examining how patients are delivered from the frontlines to the health facilities where they are eventually treated. The patients who spoke to Devex last week described a lengthy process of moving between health facilities and then check points to eventually arrive in Erbil, a city more than 50 miles away.

Distances traveled by the cases do increase complications, from secondary contamination risks all the way to delays in crossing between governorate boundaries and the complications that can come with it, Smallwood told Devex.

Future cases from Mosul will now be referred to Al-Shikhan General Hospital, a facility roughly 25 miles northeast of the city. The WHO has worked for the past 10 months to build capacity in the facility, as well as four others throughout Iraq.

The WHO also last week began training health workers even closer to the frontlines. The organization trained 10 health care workers (including medical doctors, nurses and ambulance drivers) from central Mosul, Altaf Musani, WHO representative and head of mission in Iraq, told Devex by email.

The training focused on how health care workers can decide whether a patient has been exposed to chemicals, how to protect themselves and others from secondary contamination, how to prepare for and conduct emergency decontamination, and how to triage cases and identify the class of exposure (ie. the type of chemical to which a patient has been exposed). They were provided materials to ensure they are both trained and equipped to respond safely and appropriately. WHO has now trained over 200 health care workers and first responders in this area across five governorates in Iraq.

In the longer term, the WHO and other partners hope to build chemical response preparedness into the reconstruction plan for local health facilities. The organization is working closely with local authorities to boost preparedness.

Weve had real engagement from the departments of health, Smallwood said. Its not WHO pushing the health authorities to do this, theyre taking action on their own.

Eastern Mosul, for example, is now largely under government control and clinics have begun to reopen for services. As the health facilities are becoming more accessible, as functionality is starting to come back to those facilities, well be able to increase capacity, Smallwood said.

Future training sessionswill vary depending on the capabilities the WHO and other partners find in local facilities, and initial assessments will ask exactly this question. Building capacity to respond to chemical weapons use is highly technical and varies widely based on what equipment and personnel are available.

Decontamination processes ideally take place with health care staff using personal protective equipment a set of sealed gear that protects health workers from secondary exposure. Putting the suits on and off is a complicated process that requires significant training and practice.

Public awareness is also vital to limiting the damage from chemical exposure. The WHO has crafted five key messages and plans to distribute them within Mosul and other high-risk areas.

Musani told Devex: WHO will continue to work with health facilities in and around Mosul over the coming days to provide further direct support to them as they increase their capacities to manage these types of events.

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Inside the mounting preparations for chemical attacks in Iraq | Devex - Devex

Social media is abuzz with U.S. military veterans posting their photos and memories of the first day of Operation Iraqi Freedom, when U.S. troops invaded Iraq in 2003.

Camp Pendletons 1st Marine Division was part of the drive from Kuwait up into Iraq, and the San Diego cruiser Bunker Hill was one of the U.S. warships that fired Tomahawk missiles toward the Iraqi capital.

The Navy posted a video of the Bunker Hill unloading its Tomahawks that day.

The war began with airstrikes before dawn on March 20, 2003. By the time the U.S. military pulled out of Iraq in December 2011, nearly 4,500 Americans and more than 120,000 Iraqis had lost their lives.

A military region, San Diego shared in the pain: 68 service members who hailed from San Diego died in combat -- most of them during the first half of the conflict.

Another 389 of the dead were stationed here, most at Camp Pendleton, according to a U-T analysis of data from the Pentagons Statistical Information Analysis Division.

Fourteen years later, some veterans are sounding off with pride that they served.

Veterans are remembering friends they served with. We will never forget, said the group Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America in a Tweet.

Joe Plenzler, a former Camp Pendleton Marine who is now a spokesman for the American Legion, posted a photo of himself with now-Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, in Iraq. Mattis was in command of Pendletons 1st Marine Division at the time.

Others commented on the wars utility and cost.

Others noted that U.S. troops are still in Iraq.

A few thousand American troops are in an advise and assist role, trying to help Iraqi forces defeat the jihadist group known as the Islamic State, or ISIS.

That behind-the-scenes effort still has been deadly for U.S. forces.

As one person on Twitter noted, Temecula resident Louis Cardin, a Marine Corps staff sergeant, was killed in northern Iraq just one day short of the invasion anniversary last year.

Were you there, 14 years ago today? Post your memories in the comments below, or on the @sdut Facebook page.

What do you remember most about that day?

Welcome to The Intel, a blog examining the hot military news of the day

jen.steele@sduniontribune.com

Facebook: U-T Military

Twitter: @jensteeley

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Post your memories: On this day, Iraq war started 14 years ago - The San Diego Union-Tribune

JOE GIDDENS/PA

Iraqi forces are pushing to retake the west of Mosul, Iraq's second biggest city, which was captured by the extremist group in 2014 and is their last major stronghold in the country.

Speaking through an interpreter at a Kurdish Zerevani forces camp in Bneswela, near Erbil, Brigadier General Yunis Mohamed Rashed said his troops have no mercy for ISIS fighters.

"Daesh is a very powerful terrorist organisation, they don't have humanity... they are monsters," he said.

"I have never seen such a thing as blowing themselves up, or cutting people's head off or cutting people's hand off.

"That is why we don't give them any mercy while we fight them, because against us they use everything - a lot of horrible things."

Alongside the threat of suicide bombers, he said improvised explosive devices (IEDs) left behind and disguised by the extremist group are also an issue.

"There is a lot of villages we have been controlling after Daesh left," he said.

REUTERS

1 of 12

An Iraqi special forces soldier checks men for explosive belts as they cross from Islamic State controlled part of Mosul to Iraqi forces controlled part of Mosul

[In one] we were searching and found a lot of buildings that were booby trapped - like a blanket on the ground, once you step on it, boom, it goes off."

Daesh is a very powerful terrorist organisation, they don't have humanity... they are monsters

Brigadier General Yunis Mohamed Rashed

He said that if his forces have a week with little fighting, "they know that Daesh are attacking", but that they have "faith" and "believe" they will win the war.

"Daesh is very weak right now, especially in Iraq," he said. "When Daesh was near to us it created a lot of threat."

With the Iraqi army controlling the east of Mosul and "soon the West", he added: "The threat is far away."

JOE GIDDENS/ PA

"We always put in mind that they might be stronger at any time or weaker at any time," he said after a passing-out parade at the end of a British-run course in how to detect and defuse devices.

He said his forces have learnt a lot from training by coalition forces, including the British, and they are "very thankful for their service".

Sergeant Tariq Aziz Mohammed, from the Zerevani first company, was injured last year by an IED hidden in a tunnel while fighting IS.

Talking during a training session at a half-finished housing development called Tiger Town, he said he remembered a "boom" and next thing he woke up in hospital.

He sustained a broken back and concussion and now finds he struggles mentally, often having to sit alone in a calm place.

JOE GIDDENS/ PA

Speaking through an interpreter he said: "This training makes you more aware... we have experience and have been soldiers before... but this kind of training teaches you how to protect yourself properly."

He thanked British forces for their "hard work and hard efforts" in training.

He praised medical training for treating injuries on the front line, and said building-to-building operational skills they have learned are also "important".

He added: "A lot of Peshmerga have been Peshmerga for 25 years, but they don't know all the skills and drills they have to do. Now we have learnt it.

"The IED training is amazing for us, and we extremely need the training about the IEDs on how to protect ourselves and how to defuse it.

"That is the most important thing, I think, for the Peshmerga."

Read more from the original source:
Islamic State weak in Iraq, says Peshmerga general - Express.co.uk

Positions and actions taken by Saudi Arabia and Iraq argue for an extension of the OPEC cut deal into the second half of the year. But will KSA agree to a rollover if its cut is being replaced by Iraq's production?

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said that OPEC would extend the cuts after they expire in June if oil stockpiles were "still above the five-year average." However, he said it was too early to know whether they would be down to that average by June.

Khalid al-Falih. Photo: Bloomberg.

Saudi Arabia will not allow itself to be used by others. My colleagues have heard that privately, and I am saying it publicly we will not bear the burden of 'free rides.'"

Mr. Al-Falih had said in a press conference in December, that KSA had limited its tanker nominations in-line with the agree-upon cuts. But U.S. import data show that crude oil from Saudi Arabia had jumped from the December baseline, and were significantly higher than a year ago. The data disprove what he said in December.

Furthermore, OPEC reported its production for February, and Saudi Arabia reported output at 10.011 million barrels per day, a gain of 263,000 b/d from January. The level was still in full compliance but underscored his recent message about not being used.

Although he said he did not know if the extension would be needed, data from OPEC and the Energy Department clearly show that OECD inventories will remain far above the 5-year averages, which are rising due to the persistence of high inventories.

Based on February production (as reported by the individual members), global demand and non-OPEC supply implies a "call" on OPEC oil. Assuming OPEC production continues at the February level as reported by members, global stocks would build by over 200 million barrels in the first half of 2017.

1Q

2Q

Demand

94.8

94.9

Non-OPEC

63.8

63.3

Call On OPEC

31

31.6

OPEC Prod

32.541

32.541

Stock Ch

1.541

0.941

Stock Ch

138.7

84.7

If the lower production level reported by secondary sources is used, inventories will still build by over 100 million barrels.

1Q

2Q

Demand

94.8

94.9

Non-OPEC

63.8

63.3

Call On OPEC

31

31.6

OPEC Prod

31.959

31.959

Stock Ch

0.959

0.359

Stock Ch

86.3

32.3

Projections by the U.S. Dept of Energy show that OECD stocks will build by 26 million barrels from December 2016 through the end of June. There is little doubt that an extension of the deal would be needed under the Saudi minister's criterion.

Finally, Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salmon met with President Trump last week. The "readout" from the meeting stated:

On energy, the two countries affirmed their desire to continue bilateral consultations in a way that enhances the growth of the global economy and limits supply disruption and market volatility."

I interpret this to mean that Saudi Arabia was agreeing not to push prices up much, if at all, with larger production cuts and supply disruption.

Iraq

In the months leading up to OPEC's "Vienna Agreement," Iraq's oil minister was quite blunt. Iraq's new oil minister, Jabar Ali al-Luaibi, had said, in effect, it is willing to play along but will not actually restrain production.

Iraqi Oil Minister Jabar Ali al-Luaibi. Iraqi News File Photo.

The ministry has new ambitious plans to develop the oil sector Among them, the most important is to increase crude output to reach a level that suits Iraq's needs; we don't want to specify a ceiling for future production like in the pastIraq is seeking to play an active role in order to support oil prices while preserving a share that is proportionate to its reserves."

Meanwhile, a senior government official close to Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi told Reuters:

OPEC must submit to the fact that Iraq must stay away from any possible output cut deal because the country is in the middle of a tough war and every single dollar is needed to keep it standing on its feet."

Falah al-Amri, Iraq's OPEC governor and head of the country's state marketer SOMO, was even more direct in saying that Iraq would not cut production, "Not for OPEC, not for anybody else."

Oil majors BP (NYSE:BP), Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) (NYSE:RDS.B) and Lukoil (OTCPK:LUKOY) have agreed to resume investments in oil fields the foreign groups are developing, which was expected to raise the country's crude output by 250,000-350,000 barrels per day in early 2017, Reuters reported. Iraq's oil minister Jabar Ali al-Luaibi pledged to work "day and night on increasing the national production of oil and gas."

According to the OPEC agreement, Iraq is required to cut 210,000 b/d from its October output levels, according to the table, for a quota of 4.351 million b/d. Iraq reported that its production averaged 4.6 million barrels a day over the first two months.

In a press statement issued on Thursday, Iraqi Ministry of Oil spokesman, Assem Jihad, said that the daily average national crude oil production in all oil fields in Iraq reached 4.665 million barrels per day. He confirmed that Iraq is committed to cutting national crude oil production in line with OPEC's agreement to support oil prices and take control over the abundance of oil supply in the global markets. With the agreement almost half over, Iraq is proving that it will comply verbally with the agreement, but it will not cut its production for OPEC.

Data on U.S. crude imports from Iraq show that it is picking up market share. Imports in the year-to-date are up 230% v. the same weeks in 2016.

In what may be a red herring, the Iraqi oil minister said the OPEC deal was based on exports and not production totals. "This time, for the first time, OPEC implied that production should be separate from export and their baseline is exports not production."

The agreement clearly states production, not exports. "All countries -- export," Luaibi said when asked whether only Iraq was required to reduce exports, not production, under the deal. "It's export."

He went on to state that production was on an upward trajectory, and by the end of this year "definitely we are going to reach the level of 5 million b/d." The latest addition to Iraq's production came from the Badra oil field, which is operated by Russia's Gazprom Neft. The company commissioned three new production wells earlier this month.

Iraq's long-term ambition is to double production to Saudi's level. Iraq recently awarded seven contracts to increase its production by over 4.7 million barrels per day (mmbd) in the years ahead. Lukoil, the largest oil firm in Russia, signed a deal to develop one of the world's largest untapped oil fields, the West Qurna-2 reservoir. Norway's Statoil (NYSE:STO) will share in the project. "We can announce that Lukoil has won the contract to develop the West Qurna-2 oilfield," Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani said. The projected output for the field is 1.8 mmbd.

The equally large Majnoon field was auctioned to Shell and Petronas (OTC:PNADF). In total, seven deals were signed in a two-day auction process.

Conclusions

Global inventories will not be much closer to their 5-year average by the May OPEC meeting. Therefore, I believe the Saudis will want to extend it for the full year.

However, with Iraq only complying verbally, it is questionable whether the Saudis will tolerate their non-compliance. They may "torture" them by increasing their own production. It will be a tough call for the Saudis to make if Iraq is effectively offsetting their production cut.

If Iraq does increase its production to 5 million barrels per day, instead of decreasing it by the 210,000 b/d it had agreed to, OPEC's production cut would be reduced by about 650,000 b/d, to about 500,000 b/d. And that cut could even be offset by rising production in Libya and Nigeria.

Finally, the non-OPEC production cut of about 400,000 b/d (less than the 600,000 b/d cut agreed upon) may be replaced with American shale production by the end of 2017. And it may happen more quickly than that because the Dakota Access Pipeline is expected to be "fully line-packed and ready to go" prior to 1 June.

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I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Saudi Arabia And Iraq On A Collision Course In OPEC Deal Extension - Seeking Alpha