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MOSUL, Iraq - Iraqi forces helped by U.S. airpower have clawed back much of this broken city from ISIS. But as you approach East Mosul, the military checkpoints on the rutted road aren't manned by the Iraqi army. Nor are they flying the flag of Iraq.

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The uniformed Iraqis at the checkpoints are members of Iranian-backed Shiite militias that now control the entrance to this Sunni Arab city. Rather than fly the red, white, and black Iraqi banner, the militiamen display a religious flag adorned with the face of the holiest Shiite icon, the prophet's grandson Imam Hussain. As if to hammer home the message, the face of Iran's Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini adorns a large placard tacked to a post on the road.

Washington should regard the black flags as a warning signal. Even before ISIS is fully defeated, Shiite Iran is laying the groundwork to expand its deep penetration of Iraq (with whom it shares a nearly 1,000-mile border). Tehran wants to control the Baghdad government through its Shiite political and militia proxies, marginalizing Sunnis, including in Mosul.

But judging by history, repression in Sunni areas of Iraq will provide fertile ground for the next jihadi movement to take root.

So the Shiite flags at Mosul's gateway signal that a military defeat of ISIS is insufficient. There must also be a political plan (although none is yet evident in Baghdad or Washington) to assure Sunnis of a role in a post-ISIS Iraq.

That plan is needed sooner rather than later. So far, the Shiite militias are not entering the city proper, Mosul residents tell me. "Right now they are not pushing people out," says an elementary school teacher who lives in East Mosul. He says, however, that sectarian Shiite political parties linked to the militias are already opening offices in the city.

In other contested parts of Iraq, hard-line Shiite militias are ethnically cleansing Sunnis from towns and villages to create a Sunni-free corridor from Iran across Iraq to the Syrian border. (That will enable Tehran to send men and heavy weapons by a land route through Syria to its anti-Israel ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.) These militias receive extensive Iranian support and Iraqi government funds.

Maslawis (as Mosul natives are called) view the Iraqi military far more positively than they do the militias, even though Iraqi forces are composed heavily of Shiites (who make up a majority of the population). That's because Iraqi forces are loyal to the state, not to Shiite political parties or Tehran.

I heard nothing but praise for the behavior of the Iraqi military units that entered the city, especially the U.S.-trained Counter Terrorism Service (CTS). "The only force people like is the CTS and [its] Golden Division," the prominent Sunni Sheikh Abdullah al-Yawar told me. "It did not force people to leave their homes."

Although the militias are technically under military control, no one knows their future after ISIS is defeated. Sunnis fear they will act as armed wings of competing Shiite parties or an Iraqi version of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard corps, which took over Iran's army from within.

And Sunnis rightly fear Iran's long-term intentions. They know Tehran still remembers Saddam Hussein's 1980 invasion of Iran, when Sunnis ran Iraq, and the decadelong war that followed. "Iran wants to see Iraq's Sunnis weak and divided," one Sunni politician told me, "so the 1980s can never happen again."

Iraq's Shiite prime minister, Haidar al-Abadi, who will visit Washington this week, says all the right things about reconciliation with Sunnis. "We are proud of our diversity," he said this month at a forum sponsored by the American University of Iraq, Sulaimani. "Victory will be done when we are united."

Yet Sunnis in Mosul have yet to see any of the $500 million set aside by the Iraqi finance ministry for reconstruction. Nor is it clear when hundreds of thousands of Mosul residents who fled the fighting will be permitted to return home.

Moreover, Maslawis worry about who is going to protect them from terrorism, or displacement, after ISIS is defeated. The 8,000 Sunni tribesmen trained by U.S. forces as a "hold force" to secure Mosul after ISIS have been deployed but have yet to make an impact.

Once U.S. airpower is no longer needed to target ISIS, Maslawis believe Iran will press the Baghdad government to kick U.S. forces out of the country. Having once been hostile to the American presence, Sunnis now want those forces to stay.

They know the Iranians are very clever at playing the long game. Tehran appears eager to shift Iraqi politics toward a system where the Shiite majority assumes permanent dominance over the Sunni and Kurdish minorities.

The Iranians are buying off weak Sunni politicians, helping to keep a divided community even more so. Money is also flowing to small minority groups like the Shiite Shabaks, who are manning the checkpoints at the entry to Mosul. Shabaks are a tiny Iraqi ethno-religious sect that, I'm told, had never taken up arms before.

All this raises the question of what options Washington has in Iraq to offset Iran and prevent ISIS 2.0. Here's what savvy Iraqi Arabs and Kurds told me they hope a Trump administration will do:

First, stay engaged with Iraq and retain a military presence to help Iraqi forces prevent an ISIS resurgence.

Second, bolster Abadi against Iranian efforts to back a hard-line Shiite opponent. For starters, encourage America's Gulf Arab allies to help finance Sunni reconstruction. Washington should also aid Mosul's civil society activists who are trying to rebuild from the ground up.

Third, press Baghdad to adopt a federal system, which the country's constitution provides for, so Sunnis can establish their own provinces within the country. Iran and Shiite parties will oppose this formula, but it's the only way to convince Iraq's Sunnis that they have a future.

All this requires serious, long-term U.S. engagement, which may not appeal to a Trump administration. But, as the Shiite flags outside Mosul make clear, shorter-term thinking will be costly.

Absent a strong U.S. effort, the next iteration of ISIS will grow in Iraq.

You can find the first two of Trudy Rubin's reports from Mosul at http://www.philly.com/Trudyrubin. Email:trubin@phillynews.com

Published: March 19, 2017 3:01 AM EDT The Philadelphia Inquirer

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Worldview: Rubin: After ISIS, Iran looking to deepen presence in Iraq - Philly.com

Exports from southern Iraq in the first 14 days of March have averaged 3.25 million bpd, according to Reuters shipping data. According to official data, the countrys southern terminals have edged even lower so far this month, to 3.20 million barrels per day, although still not as much as expected.

Despite its commitment to the OPECs decision to cut production to counter a global glut, Iraq pumped 4.57 MMbopd in February, and plans to boost output later in the year, in what could potentially raise questions over the country's compliance with OPEC production cuts.

Iraqs Oil Minister Jabar al-Luaibi said that country plans to increase output to 5 MMbopd by the end of 2017.

Iraq agreed in November to cut 210,000 bpd from its crude oil output beginning in January, taking as baseline an average daily of 4.56 million bpd. In January, however, Iraqs daily average production was 4.47 million bpd nowhere near the 4.35-million-bpd target set in the agreement.

Though OPEC has managed to achieve a high standard of compliance, it has mostly been due to the oversized cut by Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the actions and statements of the Iraq and Iran, second and third largest producers in OPEC, are throwing worrying signs at the oil bulls. Like Iraq, Iran is also keen on increasing its production to 5 million bpd by 2021.

Earlier this month, Minister al-Luaibi said that the countrys compliance rate with the OPEC crude oil production cut agreement had reached 85 percent. Al-Luaibi also told media that Iraq will be able to pump 5 million barrels daily in the second half of the year, suggesting that it wont support a production cut extension.

Related:Is Kurdish Oil A Gamble Worth Taking?

Iraqi oil exports are also on the rise, although the central government in Baghdad is not the only one responsible for this. In February, total Iraqi oil exports reached 3.85 million bpd, up 1 percent on a monthly basis, but most of the rise came from the Kurdistan autonomous region, with increase of 9 percent for last month.

There were brief stoppage in flows earlier this month when Kurdish forces stormed an oil facility in protest at the Iraqi government's oil policy.

By Damir Kaletovic for Oilprice.com

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Iraq Oil Exports Edge Lower So Far in March - OilPrice.com

Highlights

From 2 February to 2 March 2017:

As of 2 March 2017, the DTM has identified 3,062,808 internally displaced persons (i.e. 510,468 families) displaced after January 2014, dispersed across 106 districts and 3,660 locations in Iraq. For the same period, DTM has identified 1,579,362 returnees (i.e. 263,227 families).

The total number of identified IDPs increased by 1%, i.e. by 32,802 individuals. The governorate that reported the highest increase in IDPs was Ninewa, with a growth of 8% (i.e. 38,598 individuals).

Overall, the returnee population increased by 6%, i.e. by 83,400 individuals. Particularly, two governorates reported a significant increase of the returnee population, namely Anbar by 9% (i.e. 58,878 individuals) and Ninewa by 11% (i.e. 19,890 individuals).

Considering the available information and the DTM methodology, the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) has revised the planning figures for the humanitarian response at 3.1 million internally displaced persons.

Situation Overview

During the reporting period, from 2 February to 2 March 2017, displacement along the Mosul corridor continued although at a lower rate. The number of IDPs displaced following the military operations in Salah al-Din actually slightly decreased by 1% due to return movements, while the number of IDPs displaced as a consequence of the hostilities in Hawija district, in Kirkuk governorate, reported an increase of approximately 7%, corresponding to 5,844 individuals over four weeks.

The situation in Ninewa governorate witnessed major developments. During the reporting period, the cumulative number of IDPs displaced as a consequence of the operations that started on 17 October 2016 grew by 30%, from 196,788 to 255,708 individuals. Of these, as of 2 March, 75% were still displaced while 25% had returned to their location of origin.

The growth rate of IDPs and returnees as a results of Mosul operations was not constant during the reporting period. On 25 January, the Ministry of Interior of the KRG announced, through a press release, the intention to support and facilitate voluntary returns of IDPs from Mosul sub-district and Mosul city. Following this announcement, returns accelerated, especially during the first half of February, particularly from the camps in Merkaz Hamdaniyya sub-district.

Overall, during the reporting period, the number of returnees grew by 79%, i.e. from 35,610 on 2 February to 63,882 returnee individuals as of 2 March. However, these returns mostly took place in the first half of February, with weekly growth rates of 30% between 2 and 9 February, and 24% between 9 and 16 February.

IDPs showed an opposite trend; although during the first half of the month the increase in IDP numbers was stable, it spiked in the second half of February. On 19 February, authorities announced the beginning of operations to retake West Mosul. From 26 February, camps and emergency sites in Hammam al-Aleel and Qayara subdistricts (Mosul district), such as Haj Ali, Qayyara Airstrip, and the newly opened Qayyarah Jadah 4 and Hammam al-Aliel 1 camps began receiving newly displaced IDPs, mainly from West Mosul. In just one week, between 23 February and 2 March, Mosul district recorded an increase of 41%, corresponding to 4,792 IDP families (28,752 individuals), most of who from West Mosul.

Originally posted here:
Iraq: Displacement Tracking Matrix | DTM Round 66 - March[EN/AR/KU] - Reliefweb

MOSUL, Iraq Iraqi and U.S. commanders offered conflicting accounts Thursday of progress in western Mosul, where U.S.-backed Iraqi forces have been battling the Islamic State group for nearly a month as they try to retake the remainder of the city. Maj. Gen. Joseph Martin, the American commander of coalition ground forces in Iraq, said the troops had recaptured "a little over a third" of neighborhoods west of the Tigris River, while Brig. Gen. Yahya Rasool, an Iraqi military spokesman, said they had retaken up to 60 percent, with fighting still underway. Iraq declared eastern Mosul "fully liberated" in January. Iraqi officials have overstated gains in the past, declaring areas liberated from ISIS militants only to see the resumption of fighting or militant attacks. The extremists have targeted eastern Mosul with bombings and other attacks on several occasions in recent weeks.

Front-line commanders meanwhile said progress has been slow over the past week, with troops advancing just a few hundred meters (yards) in the face ofISIScar bomb attacks.

A suicide attacker driving a bulldozer rigged with explosives plowed through the Federal Police's front line on Wednesday, killing more than 10 soldiers and wounding several others, according to a Federal Police medic who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations. Iraq's military does not release casualty figures.

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Iraq, US offer differing accounts of progress in Mosul - Military Times

Three years ago ISIS began attacking Iraq's Christians and Yizidis in an onslaught of rape, murder and ruin that was properly designated as genocide on March 17, 2016 by the State Department.

Now, as their hometowns in Iraqs northern Nineveh Province become liberated in an ongoing coalition offensive, a few brave Christian and Yizidi genocide survivors are straggling back to the rubble that was once their homes and businesses.

The next six months will be the moment of truth for them.

This period will determine whether these ancient communities -- some of whom still speak Aramaic, the language of Jesus of Nazareth and trace their faith to Thomas the Apostle will be able to leave the squalid refugee camps and displacement shelters to return home. It will determine whether they can rebuild their shattered lives in the lands their families have lived in for millennia.

The imminent defeat of ISIS control over Nineveh is necessary. But these genocide survivors need more help and protection if they are to survive.

While the Obama State Department acknowledged the genocide, it took little diplomatic action to help its survivors.

As the Chaldean Catholic Archdiocese of Erbil told Congress, on September 22, it has received no U.N. or State Department USAID-administered humanitarian aid for 70,000 genocide survivors, since 2014. This encompasses the largest community of Iraqi Christian refugees, as well as some Yizidis under its care.

In the State Departments recently-released human rights annual reports for Iraq drafted under the Obama administration there was no mention whatsoever of ISIS genocide in Iraq, though genocide is the worlds worst human rights atrocity, one about which, after the Jewish Holocaust, we solemnly vowed never again to be silent.

There is a new danger that Christian areas will be omitted from U.N. reconstruction plans and an ISIS genocide investigation in Iraq to be initiated by the U.N. Security Council. Nothing can justify such oversights.

Before the 2003 U.S. invasion, Iraq had 1.4 million Christians. After being killed or driven out, they now they number about 250,000. Incredibly, despite everything that's happened, Iraqs Christian community remains the Middle Easts fourth largest indigenous Christian community. We should be doing more to preserve it. We should be helping all these beleaguered minorities.

Christian sources tell me that two Christian families have returned to Mosul, an overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim city of 2 million, whose western part remains a war zone.

Several hundred more Christian families have gone home to a handful of majority-Christian villages close to Kurdistan, including Teleskof, whereU.S. Navy SEAL Charlie Keating IV lost his life last May, fighting to liberate it.

Ninevehs largest Christian city, Qaraqosh, which is not within the protection zone of Kurdish Peshmerga forces, sits as a ghost town, the walls of its homes and churches still reek of the oil and fires from when the jihadis laid waste to it.

Bartella and other nearby once-Christian towns are now controlled by Iranian-backed militias who man check-points there and populated mainly by Shiites flush with money, likely provided by Iran.

Singar, the Yizidi center in western Nineveh, was liberated over a year ago, but only a few families have resettled there. It lies in ruins and over a dozen mass graves, filled with its former residents, remain untouched. This month, skirmishes broke out between Yizidi and Kurdish militias formed to protect it.

President Trump, at the National Prayer Breakfast this month, and Vice President Pence, in a recent tweet, have acknowledged the genocide suffered by these minority faith communities. They now should act.

U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley should be instructed to ensure that the U.N. fairly assists each of these vulnerable minorities in its aid and reconstruction programs and in genocide investigations.

Amb. Haley has already been a bold voice for the reform of glaring human rights imbalances at the U.N. She must address this one as well.

At a March 22 State Department summit being convened with 68 state members of the anti-ISIS coalition, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson should lead to ensure continuing protection, help and investment for these genocide-targeted minorities.

After all these centuries, without more Western help, these minority communities will not be able to survive a rapidly radicalizing Middle East.

Nina Shea has worked as a lawyer specifically focusing on religious freedom in American foreign policy, for thirty years. Joining the Hudson Institute as a Senior Fellow in 2006, she has led the Center for Religious Freedom, which she founded in 1986, in its effort to defend religious freedom internationally. She currently is a leader of a campaign for Christians threatened with genocide by ISIS.

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As we work to eradicate ISIS, Iraq's Christians, Yizidis need our help now more than ever - Fox News