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A new report now estimates that roughly half of the Christian populations of Iraq and Syria have emigrated since the Syrian civil war began in 2011.

The report was produced by the international Christian charities Open Doors, Served, and Middle East Concern.

The charities found that the Christian population in Iraq has gone from well over 300,000 Christians in 2014 to 200,000-250,000 today with many displaced internally. The Christian population of Syria is estimated by charities to have been roughly halved from 2 million in 2011.

They cite primary factors for leaving as the violence of conflict, including the almost complete destruction of some historically Christian towns in the Nineveh plains of northern Iraq, the emigration of others and loss of community, the rate of inflation and loss of employment opportunities, and the lack of educational opportunities.

The report calls the violence of ISIS in Iraq and Syria the tipping point for displacement, although the ultimate decision to leave the countries was portrayed as an accumulation of factors over time.

They add that for those settled in their destination countries, there was little incentive to return with several interviewees saying that the Middle East is no longer a home for Christians.

The charities compiled the report with findings from a literature review and gathered information from key informants: non-governmental organisation staff members; academics focused on refugee policy and practice; and religious leaders working with Syrian and Iraqi refugees.

They noted that it is difficult to find up-to-date statistics in the fast-moving environment of displacement from Syria and Iraq, or assess the reliability of the data in this politically charged environment. Even before the conflict in Syria and the presence of ISIS, there was no definitive census data to provide reliable breakdowns based on religion. These barriers impede data col- lection on Christians leaving Iraq and Syria and their journeys across the Middle East and Europe.

The groups also released a policy paper alongside their findings, calling for the European Union to establish an accountability mechanism to address the persecution of Christians in Iraq and Syria.

They argue that creating a national accountability mechanism for grievances is a long-term solution which aims to restore faith in a system that ensures all religious and ethnic communities are affirmed as equal citizens and deserving of protection, while also deterring negative actors from taking adverse actions against these communities.

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Report: Christian Community in Iraq and Syria Reduced by Roughly Half Since 2011 - Townhall

ANKARA Iran said on Thursday that gunmen and bombers who attacked Tehran were Iranian members of Islamic State who had fought in the militants' strongholds in Syria and Iraq - deepening the regional ramifications of the assaults.

The attackers raided Iran's parliament and Ayatollah Khomeini's mausoleum on Wednesday morning, in a rare strike at the heart of the Islamic Republic. Authorities said the death count had risen to 17 and scores were wounded.

Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards have also said regional rival Saudi Arabia was involved, fuelling tensions between Sunni Muslim power Riyadh and Shi'ite power Tehran as they vie for influence in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia dismissed the accusation.

Iran's intelligence ministry said on Thursday five of attackers who died in the assault had been identified as Iranians who had joined the hardline Sunni Muslim militants of Islamic State on their main battlegrounds in Iraq and Syria.

"They earlier left Iran and were involved in the crimes of the terrorist group in Raqqa and Mosul," the ministry said, referring to Islamic State's effective capital in Syria and a city it captured in Iraq.

"Last year, they returned to Iran ... to carry out terrorist attacks in the holy cities of Iran," the ministry added in a statement on state news agency IRNA.

The attacks were the first claimed by Islamic State inside tightly controlled Iran, one of the powers leading the fight against the militants in Iraq and Syria.

Two Sunni militant groups, Jaish al-Adl and Jundallah, have been also waging an insurgency in Iran, mostly in remote areas, for almost a decade.

ARRESTS

Iran's intelligence ministry said earlier on Thursday it had arrested more suspects linked to the attacks, on top of six Iranians, including one woman, detained on Wednesday.

The semi-official Tasnim news agency said on of the wounded people had died in hospital, bringing the death toll to 17. Two of the victims were women, it added, citing official figures.

Security camera footage aired on state TV showed people running and seeking cover as the gunmen strode through parliament's halls, firing their weapons and hitting at least one person.

Iranians, contacted by Reuters, said there was a heavy police presence, particularly in the capital's busy squares.

"It feels safe to see police everywhere. Also there are plainclothes officers in shopping centers," said Mohammadali Rastgou, a shopkeeper in northern Tehran's Tajrish square.

State TV also showed pictures of ammunition, rifles and binoculars laid out next to an Islamic State flag, all, it said, taken from the attackers.

"We have seen worse than this. Iranians will not be intimidated by such attacks. Our country is the safest place in the region," a middle-age man told state TV.

Other members of the public accused Saudi Arabia and Iran's long-time foe, the United States, of backing the attacks.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he was praying for the victims, but added that "states that sponsor terrorism risk falling victim to the evil they promote."

Foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif dismissed what he called the "repugnant White House statement". "Iranian people reject such U.S. claims of friendship," he added on Twitter.

(Additional reporting by Bozorgmehr Sharafedin in London; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

BOSASO, Somalia Al Shabaab militants killed 20 soldiers in an attack on a military base in Af Urur, a town in Somalia's semi-autonomous Puntland region on Thursday, an army officer said.

MAIDUGURI, Nigeria Boko Haram insurgents launched their biggest attack on the northeast Nigerian city of Maiduguri in 18 months on Wednesday night, the eve of a visit by Acting President Yemi Osinbajo to war refugees sheltering there.

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Iran attackers fought for Islamic State in Syria, Iraq: ministry - Reuters

New York Times

Review: 'Raw Bacon' Finds Fearful Poetry in an Iraq War Vet's Mind New York Times Yet portraying an Iraq war veteran suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder in Ms. Masciotti's Raw Bacon, sensitively directed by Ben Williams, Mr. Perez is giving the kind of instinctive yet disciplined, all-out emotional performance that makes ...

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Review: 'Raw Bacon' Finds Fearful Poetry in an Iraq War Vet's Mind - New York Times

Masoud Barzani, president of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, made a major Twitter announcement earlier today: The region will hold an independence referendum on Sept. 25.

It's big news, but not surprising Iraqi Kurds have long sought independence from the rest of Iraq. And in recent months, Barzani has told various officials he would push for a referendum.

While the United States might be tempted to give reflexive support to Kurdish aspirations, our diplomats must be cautious. The referendum sets Kurdistan on a collision course with Iraq, Iran and Turkey.

In the case of Iraq, the challenge is simple: Iraq doesn't want to lose vast areas of territory. That said, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi is in a bind. He needs the help of Kurdish forces to continue fighting the Islamic State, and his position in Baghdad is tenuous.

As I've explained, Iran is seeking to restrain al-Abadi as he forges greater cooperation between various Iraqi political blocs, including Kurdish parties. But Abadi also knows that Sunni Arabs living alongside Kurds in northern cities like Mosul and Kirkuk will resist losing what they regard as natural Iraqi territory.

Were Iraqi Kurdistan to become independent, Iran fears it would empower similar separatism in Iran.

Still, what makes Iran's opposition to Kurdish independence especially concerning is its military capacity. At present, tens of thousands of well-equipped, well-trained Iranian-aligned fighters are operating in northern Iraq. On paper, they serve under the Iraqi security establishment in order to fight the Islamic State.

But that's a pretense. The reality is that these "popular mobilization forces" are in Iraq to give Iran influence over Baghdad. And they answer to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. If ordered to create havoc in Iraqi-Kurdish territory, they would do so.

Finally, there's Turkey.

This is the big one. Turkey is obsessive in opposing a Kurdish state, and it has good reasons for doing so.

For one, the anti-Turkish PKK terrorist group dominates the armed groups operating in northern Syria. If a Kurdish state is forged from Iraq, the Turks rightly assume that it would appropriate Kurdish-occupied territory in Syria. That would formalize a major security threat along Turkey's border.

But that's not all. In equal measure, Turkey fears a Kurdish state would destabilize its southeastern provinces. Millions of Turkish Kurds live in this area. And tensions between these provincial citizens and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government are rising. Enveloping Turkey's main Kurdish political party into his "coup plotter" crackdown, Erdogan's thuggery is fueling Kurdish extremism. If the spark is lit in Iraq, it may quickly spill into Turkey.

Ultimately, the U.S. will have to mediate the above concerns if chaos is to be avoided. We must persuade Turkey and Iran that the Kurds would not use their new state as expansionist launchpad. We must convince the Kurds that our support requires their commitment to placating the aforementioned concerns. We must consolidate al-Abadi's government in Baghdad. And Turkey and Iran must understand that we will not tolerate an invasion of Kurdistan.

Absent U.S. leadership, great bloodletting beckons.

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What will the Kurdish independence referendum mean for Iraq and the rest of the Middle East? - Washington Examiner

Examples of how to rebuild resilient societies in the wake of natural disasters and man-made conflicts, from countries are varied as Iraq and India, were on offer during the second day of the EU Development Days conference in Brussels on Thursday (8 June).

Speakers from the World Bank, the United Nations, the EUs Department of Development and Cooperation, and the Iraqi Secretary-General of the Council of Ministers were on hand to swap examples of recovery from cyclones, flooding, conflicts and civil wars.

But the main message was the traditional mantra of NGOs, civil society and governments, to Build Back Better was not enough. The hundreds of thousands of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Iraq needed more than just a new home, Mahdi Al-Alaq said. A brick-and-mortar building was nothing without food and water security, the prospect of a livelihood, and conflict resolution.

Our plans must meet the unexpected, the Iraqi minister told an overflowing hall of around 120 development professionals at the EU-funded conference.

We have immediate needs, in terms of the urgent needs of the IDP in hot regions. But we have strategic needs, such as stabilising liberated areas.

We have a huge task force working to return IDPs, but this process needs good livelihoods, drinking water, and most of all schools for the children.

Restoring damaged houses [alone] is not enough. Tens of thousands of our people, and our security forces have sacrificed their lives, but now we need to clean the land of mines, and support vulnerable women and children.

The role of women was a recurrent theme of the two-hour discussion. Hiba Qasas, the United Nations chief of crisis preparedness and response, pointed out that in the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, some 90% of the deaths were of women and children.

Despite the passing of nearly three decades, the story has not changed much, she explained. The 2004 Asian tsunami saw 70% of its victims as women and children.

Although men are the chief mortalities in conflicts, the women bear the brunt afterwards, with one in five female IDPs experiencing sexual violence, Qasas noted.

Crisis is not gender neutral. Risk is not equally shared, she declared. In terms of armed conflict, there are some 5 million widows in Iraq, and 30% of the displaced in the current Yemen conflict are female-led households.

Yet, Qasas continued, globally just 4% of peace agreements have a female co-signatory, and there are few women negotiators. Convener Nigel Fisher had to reach back to Guatemala in 1991 to find an example of a peace process led by women.

Qasas pointed out that in flood-prone Bangladesh, it was frequently womens groups who came up with the best recommendations for future preventative and recovery measures but their voices were not always listened to.

DG Devcos Leonard Mizi a late addition to the panel admitted that in rural areas women still face barriers, such as asymmetric access to information and services.

Recovery is a critical opportunity to build back better, he said, but it was too often poorly executed. We need to think more out of the box, he concluded.

Fisher pointed out that meaningful livelihoods in post-crisis or disaster communities are not just clearing up rubble.

For a family, living in a new home is not going to keep them alive, without food security, and a prospect of a livelihood.

Jo Scheuer, the United Nations Development Programmes Director of Climate Change and Risk, stated baldly that without women, we wont achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

But he went on to point out that according to the US military one of the biggest threats in decades to come would be climate change.

There have always been conflicts over land and water. There will be more and more in future, and it will only get worse as climate change increases unchecked.

Sea-level change is already happening, no two ways about that, Scheuer said, adding that Even areas and regions not affected now will have to think about it, as they might have to host climate refugees.

Sameh Wahba, Group Director at the World Bank, pointed to another factor urbanisation.

In Africa, we are seeing urbanisation on a scale never heard of before in human history, he said. These people all need land, shelter and housing but they are trading livability for the possibility of a livelihood, ending up on the margins of cities, at risk of flooding and landslides.

Convener Nigel Fisher concluded, The last crisis is never the same as the next one.

However, on a note of optimism, Wahba pointed out that, with $255m invested in India since the cyclone of 2000, in shelters and evacuation planning, it was estimated that some 99.6% of potential casualties has been avoided.

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Lessons from Iraq and India on building 'resilient' recovery after disasters - EURACTIV