Smoke rises from the Syrian city of Kobani, following an air strike against Isis by the US-led coalition. Photograph: Vadim Ghirda/AP
From the air, things appear to be going well for the US-led coalition that has dropped more than 1,700 bombs on Islamic State (Isis) targets in Iraq and Syria, scattering the terror group in some areas and slowing its momentum in others.
But the view on the ground tells a different story, officials and tribal leaders in Iraq say. The absence of a political process to accompany the air strikes is instead driving Sunni communities to consider allying with Isis, they claim, especially in sensitive areas around Baghdad.
Iraqs vice-president for reconciliation, Iyad Allawi, said a lack of a political process between the Shias who dominate the countrys power base, and disenfranchised Sunnis was a grave mistake that could mean the air attacks end up achieving little.
The whole strategy needs to be revisited and readdressed and the international allies should be part of this, Allawi told the Guardian. People are asking me what will come after Isis. What would be the destiny of [local] people? Are they going to be accused of supporting or defeating Isis? Would they be accused of being Baathists? It is going to be really difficult for them to engage without reconciliation.
Allawi said the areas surrounding Baghdad where Isis had made inroads even before the group overran Iraqs second city, Mosul, last June are now increasingly unstable and vulnerable.
The Baghdad belt demonstrates the lack of strategy and reconciliation. There is widespread ethnic cleansing there, militias are roaming the areas. Scores and scores of people ... have been expelled from their areas and they cant go back because of the dominance of the militias.
A senior Iraqi official, Dr Hisham al-Hashimi, who advises the government on Isis, agreed. The areas around Baghdad are suffering from a lot of sectarian violence and the tribes there have started to reflect on the idea of joining Isis. The tribes believe that there are moves to deport them from their lands.
Samarra to the north of the Iraqi capital and Sunni areas just to the south remain tense and dangerous, despite more than seven months of air strikes that have supported the embattled Iraqi military and the large number of Shia militias that fight alongside it.
Controlling both areas is considered vital to establishing control of Iraq. Two other senior Iraqi officials contacted by the Guardian during the week claim the security forces relative control now would fast melt away if tribes threw their weight behind the insurgency.
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Lack of political process in Iraq risks further gains for Isis