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From: UpFront

It wasnt flawed intelligence that led to the war, says Bolton, a key proponent of the US invasion.

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John Bolton was a senior adviser to United States President George W Bush on matters of arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament in the lead-up to the US invasion of Iraq, 20 years ago.

Bolton, one of the strongest proponents for the war, repeatedly made the case that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was a threat not just to the United States but also to the wider world, pushing and amplifying claims about weapons of mass destruction and links to al-Qaeda.

But were these claims just pretexts used to forward the longtime objective of some in the Bush administration to overthrow Saddam? And how much dissenting evidence was ignored in the run-up to the war?

On UpFront, Marc Lamont Hill speaks to the Bush-era undersecretary of state for arms control and international affairs and later US ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton.

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Published On 24 Mar 202324 Mar 2023

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Twenty years on, John Bolton is still defending the USs Iraq War - Al Jazeera English

A recent incident has revealed the extent of the attempts to make the PKK terrorist organization grow beyond Turkish borders.

On March 15, a helicopter crashed in Iraqs Duhok region. Shortly after the incident, the counterterrorism force of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq announced that the helicopter carrying nine was a single chopper, a Eurocopter AS350 model designed and manufactured in France.

So far, everything seemed like a typical aircraft crash, until it was revealed that some of the victims who died in the accident were "high-ranking" PKK terrorists.

According to the statement by the PKK regarding the incident, one of the pilots was Sherfan Kobani, a cousin of the PKK's Syrian wing YPGs top commander Ferhat Abdi ahin (code-named Mazloum Kobani). Apparently, the terrorists trained and supported by the United States in Syria had somehow captured the helicopter and learned to fly it. Furthermore, the PKK/YPG stated that not one but two helicopters carrying PKK members had crashed in the region.

Of course, after this grave incident, eyes turned to the U.S., which is the protector of the PKK/YPG. Two questions were crucial: Who did these helicopters belong to? Who put them at the service of a terrorist organization?

On a question, Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder insisted that the U.S. did not give pilot training to the PKK/YPG. "As far as I know, we do not provide helicopter piloting training."

It is useful to highlight the "as far as I know" part here.

France, the manufacturer of the helicopter, applied a similar "lay to the dead" tactic. Anadolu Agency (AA) recently asked the French Foreign Ministry, who owned the AS350 model helicopter manufactured by French Airbus Helicopters: "The serial number of the helicopter appears in the images reflected in the press. So, do the French need to know to whom this helicopter was sold to?

As a response, the spokesperson of the French ministry said: "We have no comment.

Of course, after these evasive statements, eyes were once again turned to the KRG. The KRG's anti-terrorism unit has issued another statement regarding the helicopter on its official Facebook page. The statement noted that these helicopters were flying between the northern part of Syria and the Iraqi city of Sulaymaniyah and that the official institutions in the KRG were not informed about this issue.

There are plenty of allegations floating around. Some argue that the helicopter was given by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) political party, while others claim that the second downed helicopter was kept a secret. However, there is the gospel truth and journalists working abroad do not give up on the issue. The evasive answers given by the U.S. officials at news conferences, in particular, once again reveal the seriousness of the situation.

Finally, the following dialogue between a TRT World reporter and a Pentagon spokesperson shows how stuck Washington actually is in supporting the PKK.

"I have a hard time understanding. Didn't you know about helicopters that take off from the ground, which is a U.S. base with 1,000 soldiers? reporter Yunus Paksoy asked, to which Ryder said "We weren't involved, adding that further questions about the incident should be directed to the PKK/YPG.

Upon that answer, Paksoy asked whether the U.S. had any information on the issue.

"We weren't involved. I choose my words specifically, Ryder replied.

After this scandal, which broke out just a few days after the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) officials visited the PKK/YPG, the statements of the U.S. remain "desperate," so to speak.

Let the parties try to cover up this issue as much as they want, or let the questions suffocate. I am confident that Turkish intelligence will shed light on this dark incident down to every detail with its evidence.

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US fails to account for downed PKK helicopter in Iraq | Daily Sabah - Daily Sabah

IRBIL, Iraq (AP) Complexes of McMansions, fast food restaurants, real estate offices and half-constructed high-rises line wide highways in Irbil, the seat of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq.

Many members of the political and business elite live in a suburban gated community dubbed the American Village, where homes sell for as much as $5 million, with lush gardens consuming more than a million liters of water a day in the summer.

The visible opulence is a far cry from 20 years ago. Back then, Irbil was a backwater provincial capital without even an airport.

That rapidly changed after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that toppled Saddam Hussein. Analysts say that Iraqi Kurds and particularly the Kurdish political class were the biggest beneficiaries in a conflict that had few winners.

Thats despite the fact that for ordinary Kurds, the benefits of the new order have been tempered by corruption and power struggles between the two major Kurdish parties and between Irbil and Baghdad, the Iraqi capital.

In the wake of the invasion, much of Iraq fell into chaos, as occupying American forces fought an insurgency and as multiple political and sectarian communities vied to fill the power vacuum left in Baghdad. But the Kurds, seen as staunch allies of the Americans, strengthened their political position and courted foreign investments.

Irbil quickly grew into an oil-fueled boom town. Two years later, in 2005, the city opened a new commercial airport, constructed with Turkish funds, and followed a few years after that by an expanded international airport.

Traditionally, the Kurdish narrative is one of victimhood and one of grievances, said Bilal Wahab, a fellow at the Washington Institute think tank. But in Iraq since 2003, that is not the Kurdish story. The story is one of power and empowerment.

With the Ottoman Empires collapse after World War I, the Kurds were promised an independent homeland in the 1920 Treaty of Sevres. But the treaty was never ratified, and Kurdistan was carved up. Since then, there have been Kurdish rebellions in Iran, Iraq and Turkey, while in Syria, Kurds have clashed with Turkish-backed forces.

In Iraq, the Kurdish region won de facto self-rule in 1991, when the United States imposed a no-fly zone over it in response to Saddams brutal repression of Kurdish uprisings.

We had built our own institutions, the parliament, the government, said Hoshyar Zebari, a top official with the Kurdistan Democratic Party who served as foreign minister in Iraqs first post-Saddam government. Also, we had our own civil war. But we overcame that, he said, referring to fighting between rival Kurdish factions in the mid-1990s.

Speaking in an interview at his palatial home in Masif, a former resort town in the mountains above Irbil that is now home to much of the KDP leadership, Zabari added, The regime change in Baghdad has brought a lot of benefits to this region.

Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid, from the rival Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, also gave a glowing assessment of the post-2003 developments. The Kurds, he said, had aimed for a democratic Iraq, and at the same time some sort of self-determination for the Kurdish people.

With the U.S. overthrow of Saddam, he said, We achieved that ... We became a strong group in Baghdad.

The post-invasion constitution codified the Kurdish regions semi-independent status, while an informal power-sharing arrangement now stipulates that Iraqs president is always a Kurd, the prime minister a Shiite and the parliament speaker a Sunni.

But even in the Kurdish region, the legacy of the invasion is complicated. The two major Kurdish parties have jockeyed for power, while Irbil and Baghdad have been at odds over territory and the sharing of oil revenues.

Meanwhile, Arabs in the Kurdish region and minorities, including the Turkmen and Yazidis, feel sidelined in the new order, as do Kurds without ties to one of the two key parties that serve as gatekeepers to opportunities in the Kurdish region.

As the economic boom has stagnated in recent years, due to both domestic issues and global economic trends, an increasing number of Kurdish youths are leaving the country in search of better opportunities. According to the International Labor Organization, 19.2% of men and 38% of women aged 15-24 were unemployed and out of school in Irbil province in 2021.

Wahab said Irbils post-2003 economic success has also been qualified by widespread waste and patronage in the public sector.

The corruption in the system is really undermining the potential, he said.

In Kirkuk, an oil-rich city inhabited by a mixed population of Kurds, Turkmen and Sunni Arabs where Baghdad and Irbil have vied for control, Kahtan Vendavi, local head of the Iraqi Turkmen Front party, complained that the American forces support was very clear for the Kurdish parties after the 2003 invasion.

Turkmen are the third largest ethnic group in Iraq, with an estimated 3 million people, but hold no high government positions and only a handful of parliamentary seats.

In Kirkuk, the Americans appointed a governor of Kurdish nationality to manage the province. Important departments and security agencies were handed over to Kurdish parties, Vendavi said.

Some Kurdish groups also lost out in the post-2003 order, which consolidated the power of the two major parties.

Ali Bapir, head of the Kurdistan Justice Group, a Kurdish Islamist party, said the two ruling parties treat people who do not belong to (them) as third- and fourth-class citizens.

Bapir has other reasons to resent the U.S. incursion. Although he had fought against the rule of Saddams Baath Party, the U.S. forces who arrived in 2003 accused him and his party of ties to extremist groups. Soon after the invasion, the U.S. bombed his partys compound and then arrested Bapir and imprisoned him for two years.

Kurds not involved in the political sphere have other, mainly economic, concerns.

Picnicking with her mother and sister and a pair of friends at the sprawling Sami Abdul Rahman Park, built on what was once a military base under Saddam, 40-year-old Tara Chalabi acknowledged that the security and safety situation is excellent here.

But she ticked off a list of other grievances, including high unemployment, the end of subsidies from the regional government for heating fuel and frequent delays and cuts in the salaries of public employees like her.

Now there is uncertainty if they will pay this month, she said.

Nearby, a group of university students said they are hoping to emigrate.

Working hard, before, was enough for you to succeed in life, said a 22-year-old who gave only her first name, Gala. If you studied well and you got good grades you would have a good opportunity, a good job. But now its very different. You must have connections.

In 2021, hundreds of Iraqi Kurds rushed to Belarus in hopes of crossing into Poland or other neighboring EU countries. Belarus at the time was readily handing out tourist visas in an apparent attempt to pressure the European Union by creating a wave of migrants.

Those who went, Wahab said, were from the middle class, able to afford plane tickets and smuggler fees.

To me, its a sign that its not about poverty, he said. Its basically about the younger generation of Kurds who dont really see a future for themselves in this region anymore.

___

Associated Press writer Salar Salim in Irbil, Iraq, contributed to this report.

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Kurds remain biggest winners from US-led invasion of Iraq - The Associated Press

Leaving aside the manufactured justifications, the United States invaded Iraq in 2003 to reassert U.S. power in the Middle East and reduce the influence of Iran. It wasnt terrorism or yellow cake or even Saddam Husseins appalling human rights abuses that motivated one of the most tragic of U.S. foreign policy blunders.

It was geopolitics, stupid.

According to the fevered imaginations of Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, and their neocon compatriots, Saddam would be the first domino to fall, followed by other autocrats (Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Muammar Qaddafi in Libya) until, boom, democracy upended the ayatollahs in Iran as well. They even imagined, by the mere inclusion of it in an axis of evil, that North Korea too would soon experience a Pyongyang Spring.

Saddam did indeed fall. And then Iraq fell apart, thanks to the failure of the Bush administration to develop a coherent post-war reconstruction plan.

But democracy did not take hold in the region, much less in North Korea. Some autocrats have squeaked by, in the case of Assad by ruthlessly suppressing a civil uprising, while others have emerged like Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Egypt and Abdelmadjid Tebboune in Algeria. And several putative democrats, like Kais Saied in Tunisia and Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, have moved solidly into the illiberal camp.

Heres akoanfor the neocons: whats the sound of one domino falling?

The ayatollahs, meanwhile, havent gone anywhere. Iran, by all estimates, increased its regional standing after 2003, becoming a major player in post-war Iraq, growing its influence in Lebanon and Syria, raising its profile among Palestinians through support of Hamas in Gaza, and backing a Shiite faction in Yemen.

So, the invasion of Iraq produced the exact opposite results than intended, despite the loss ofover 4,400 U.S. soldiersand the outlay ofas much as $2 trillionto fight the war and repair the broken country. Iraqis, of course, have suffered even more:around 300,000 deathsand a statecurrently hobbledby corruption and in-fighting.

Okay, Saddam is gone. But Iran and terrorist entities like the Islamic State have filled the regional vacuum, not the United States or democracy.

U.S. declining influence in the region was on display in the recent agreement that Iran inked with Saudi Arabia. The two perennially adversarial powersagreed this monthto restore diplomatic relations, and the king of Saudi Arabia even invited Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to visit Riyadh. This extraordinary development, between two countries that have fought through proxies in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, has the potential to remap the region.

The United States, the most powerful country in the world and the post-World War II hegemon in the Middle East, had nothing to do with the rapprochement.

It was China that brokered the agreement, a country with a single overseas military base and little history of involvement in the Middle East.

On the twentieth anniversary of the Iraq invasion, the United States has discovered once again how the mighty can be brought low by their hubris.

The United States has lost a large measure of its global influence, thanks to its fiascos in Iraq and Afghanistan. Have subsequent administrations learned the lessons of these misbegotten incursions?

Barack Obama famously tried to pivot from Iraq to winning the war in Afghanistan. Today, the Taliban once again rule that country.

Donald Trumppretendedas if hed never supported the Iraq War as part of a half-assed attempt to paint himself as a critic of U.S. military interventions. In fact, it was only because of the concerted efforts of marginally more sensible members of his administration that Trump didnt plunge the United States into warwith IranorVenezuela.

Biden seems to have partially learned the lessons of Iraq. He followed through on the pullout of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, and he has resisted sending U.S. troops to Ukraine. On the other hand, he has pushed the U.S. military budget ever higher and doubled down on containing China.

But the person who has truly not learned the lessons of Iraq comes from a different country altogether: Vladimir Putin.

Last year, Putin did a credible impersonation of George W. Bush by launching a shock and awe attack on Ukraine that he thought would be such a cakewalk that it wouldnt even needproper preparationlike updated maps or food enough to feed the invading troops. The limits of military force that hasbecome a catchphraseamong U.S. policymakers and pundits obviously never penetrated the walls of the Kremlin or the nationalist mindset of the Russian leader.

Strangely, pundits in the West have been slow to draw this obvious parallel. InThe Guardian, Jonathan Steelenotesthat in spite of the resurgence of US power in Europe as a result of the war in Ukraine, the era of US supremacy in the rest of the world may soon be over. Well, the erosion of U.S. power been a long time in the making. But what about the end of Russian supremacy in its own sphere of influence? Wouldnt that be a more apt comparison between the Iraq and Ukraine wars? The Biden administration has learned at least some lessons from the dreadful blunder. The same cant be said for Putin, and Russia will inevitably suffer the same geopolitical consequences.

Ishaan Tharoor, inThe Washington Post,musesthat the United States is unable to build a more effective global coalition against Russia because of its hypocrisy going back to the Iraq War. True, but much of the world is skeptical of U.S. intentions because of U.S. foreign policy misadventures going back a century or moreand also because Russia still has some influence in important countries like China, India, and South Africa. And it is Russian hypocrisyPutinsridiculous claimsthat he is upholding sovereignty rather than violating itthats the more salient feature of the current war. Imperialism is never having to say youre sorry (or make sense, for that matter).

And in theBoston Globe,Andrew Bacevichmakesthe off-base argument that Biden appears to believe that the Ukraine war provides a venue whereby the United States can overcome the legacy of Iraq, enabling him to make good on his repeated assertion that America is back.

Really?!

The war in Ukraine has less to do with the United States than with Vladimir Putins quest for power and imperial might. The United States is not the only superpower whose reach exceeds its grasp. Moreover, the Biden administration has responded with arms and support for Ukraine not out of any effort to overcome the legacy of Iraq butto come to the defense of a democracy that has been invaded.

These arguments are all part of an obsessively U.S.-focused whataboutism that has permeated the U.S. lefts discourse in particular around Ukraine. Instead of focusing on Russian actions, the anti-war critics will say what about the U.S. invasion of Iraq? as if there can only be one badly behaved country in the world and only one touchstone of evil.

Bacevich, again, has tried to make a virtue out of this rhetorical irresponsibility Giving Whataboutism a Chanceby concluding that however grotesque, Putins ambitions in Ukraine seem almost modest by comparison to the U.S. crimes in Iraq. Though Bacevich agrees that Putins actions have been those of a vile criminal, he is effectively arguing that the stakes in Ukraine are somehow not so great as to justify providing the country with sufficient means to defend itself.

The fact that the United States, among others, have failed to do the right thing in the pastor in other parts of the world todayshould in no way diminish the importance of doing the right thing right now in Ukraine. Would Bacevich argue that the Biden administration shouldnt pursue major carbon reductions at home because the United States pumped so much carbon into the atmosphere in the past or is failing to help, for instance, India from kicking the fossil fuel habit today? At its heart, whataboutism provides an intellectual veneer for a paralyzing passivity in the face of evil.

Even as they note the declining global influence of the United States, some analysts nevertheless believe that Washington can somehow wave a magic wand to end the war in Ukraine.

Take George Beebe, inResponsible Statecraft, who makesthe problematic assertionthat this summer Ukraine might well have less bargaining leverage, as its battlefield position stagnates and its confidence in enduring American support erodes. Thus, the Biden administration should press

the accelerator pedal on negotiations with Russia. For example, signaling discreetly to Moscow that we are prepared to discuss the thorny issue of Ukraines membership in NATO an issue Putin regards as central to the war, but which Biden has so far refused to discuss might help to change these dynamics and reshape Russias attitude toward a settlement.

This assertion is based on several faulty assumptions. Beebe urges the Biden administration to act now because of somethinga battlefield stalematethatmighthappen this summer and would be more likely to happen if Biden listens to Beebe (talk about self-fulfilling arguments).

Sure, Washington could signal that it will talk about NATO membership with Russia. But Putin actually doesnt care that much about NATOper se. What the Russian leader wants is to fully incorporate as much of Ukraine into Russia as possible. Barring the installation of a Kremlin-friendly administration in Kyiv, hell settle for a structurally weakened country that will never pose any kind of threatmilitary, economic, politicalto Russia.

Finally, what Beebe doesnt say but rather implies is that the Biden administration should exercise its influence by leaning on Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, particularly if it doesnt feel compelled to do so by circumstances on the ground.

Yes, of course, the Biden administration could seriously weaken the Ukrainian military by cutting off military supplies.Proponents of this viewbelieve that this will somehow produce a negotiated settlement. The more likely scenario would be a redoubled Russian military assault accompanied by war crimes on a scale that would dwarf the horrors of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Therecent indictmentof Putin by the International Criminal Court focused on the forced relocation of Ukrainian children. But thats just a small part of what Putin has wrought:executionsof prisoners of war,slaughterof civilians,bombingof civilian infrastructure. Full-scale war against a weakened opponent will bring full-scale war crimes.

All of which suggests that the pro-peace critics of Bidens policy toward Ukrainefrom theleftand therightare really the ones who have not internalized the lessons of the Iraq War. The refusal of the United States to make any serious post-invasion plans, the effort to occupy Iraq and dictate its political and economic future, the implicit belief that the invasion would solidify U.S. standing in the regionthese all plunged Iraq into years and years of civil war. Anything short of drastically reducing Russian influence in Ukraine will condemn the country to the same.

The U.S. left continuously called for U.S. troops to leave Iraq. Only those who have failed to learn the lessons of the Iraq War would fail to make the same demand of Russia as a prerequisite for a just peace today.

John Feffer is the director of Foreign Policy In Focus. His latest book isRight Across the World: The Global Networking of the Far-Right and the Left Response.

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Ukraine And The Lessons Of The Iraq War OpEd - Eurasia Review

BAGHDAD, Iraq The Iraqi capital in 2023 is far different from Baghdad in 2003. Ramadi and Fallujah, once the hotbed of insurgency, are not only peaceful but also booming with construction and commerce. Sectarianism is, at least among the 50% of the population born after the war, in the rearview mirror. The parking lots of Baghdads malls and shopping centers are full of cars from Iraqi Kurdistan, predominantly Shi'ite southern Iraq, and largely Sunni al Anbar province. Baghdadis from across the religious and ethnic spectrum flock to the new cafes and restaurants that open on a daily basis.

On the 20th anniversary of the war, I visited a new complex developed by the mayor of Baghdad. Hijab-wearing Iraqi women and old men sat next to young boys and girls dressed in the latest Western fashions to smoke shishas and watch soccer games on huge flat-screen televisions. Every hour, they would watch an hourly light and water show on the Tigris with fountains set to Celine Dions "My Heart Will Go On" or Giacomo Puccinis famous aria "Nessun Dorma."

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Corruption throttles Iraqs potential. Political parties across Iraq no longer openly fight for turf, but they act as mafias who drain Iraqs economy and the aspirations of the youth. Many of the same political power brokers whom Americans engaged during the occupation remain paramount influences today. Time matters, though. Ayad Allawi, the one-time darling of the Central Intelligence Agency whom the United States installed as Iraqs caretaker prime minister prior to the countrys 2005 elections, is nearly 80 years old and is in ill health. Former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki is only in his early 70s but is ailing. Masoud Barzani, whose family dominates Kurdish business, security forces, and politics, is also in his late 70s and in poor health.

STATE DEPARTMENT DOES IRAQ A DISSERVICE WITH ENERGY SCHEMES

Time matters. Few, if any, of Iraqs top warlords or political bosses will be alive to mark the 30th anniversary of the war, let alone the 25th. The question then becomes what impact their deaths will have on Iraqs political environment. Outside Iraqi Kurdistan, where Masoud has appointed his eldest son Masrour heir apparent and where Patriotic Union of Kurdistan founder Jalal Talabanis sons have already taken over from their late father, it is not likely that sons will succeed fathers or that political machines will stay alive.

Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al Sudani marks a generational change in Iraqs political leadership. He is the first post-war prime minister who was never in exile and who rose up through layers of bureaucracy from a low position. This pedigree undermines the populist appeal of Muqtada al Sadr, the volatile cleric who has long sought to cloak himself in Iraqi nationalism by juxtaposing his presence in Saddams Iraq with those who escaped to London, Damascus, or Tehran. Muqtada, however, is young: just 48. He will remain a force, though perhaps not as potent as in recent months. His own actions belie his anti-corruption rhetoric, and Iraqis resent his followers violence. His constituency is also soft. The fight against the Islamic State created new heroes, none of whom came from a Sadrist background. While Iraqis venerate his late father, the passage of time loosens Muqtadas claim to their loyalty.

Qais Khazali, a U.S.-designated terrorist, former prisoner, and current political leader, is also under 50 and a growing force. While he once killed Americans as head of Irans Special Groups in Iraq, he now signals a desire to work with the United States. While Washington has rebuffed his outreach, he will be important for a generation.

Washington need not rehabilitate Qais but as Iraq begins its third post-war decade, the Biden administration must focus more on the future than the past. It should stop puffing up aging warlords like Barzani, who holds no position but whom Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin nevertheless met, or believing would-be warlords like Muqtada are messiahs. It is time to end the era of personality-based diplomacy behind it, stop seeing Iraq only through the lens of Iran, and respect rather than undermine Iraqs democracy at this time of generational change.

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Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to theWashington Examiner'sBeltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

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Iraq in 2023 is a very different place to 2003 Iraq - Washington Examiner